Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report Since October 2024, the price of thermal coal has been on a continuous decline due to the "double - whammy" of supply and demand. The supply side has seen continuous growth under the "supply guarantee" policy, while the demand side has been significantly suppressed by the substitution effect of new energy sources such as wind and solar power on thermal power. The pressure on coal prices has not been significantly alleviated. May 25th could be a time point to observe whether the price can stabilize, but even if the price stabilizes or rebounds, the strength will likely be limited. A significant rebound in coal prices requires more powerful joint actions on both the supply and demand sides [1][4][28]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Supply - side Situation - Since May 2024, China's raw coal production has been at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. From May - December 2024, the cumulative year - on - year increase in raw coal production was about 4.8%, and from January - March 2025, this year - on - year growth rate rose to 8.78%, with an absolute increase of about 97 million tons [6]. - The main increments come from Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, accounting for 91% of the total increment. Shanxi contributed nearly 54 million tons of increment in the first quarter, and Xinjiang maintained a high - growth rate, contributing about 20.6 million tons of output [8]. - Despite a year - on - year decline in imported coal (a cumulative decrease of 1.05 million tons from January - March and an increase in the year - on - year decline to 8.48 million tons as of April), the total raw coal supply still recorded an increment of over 95 million tons as of March data, creating a loose supply pattern [12]. Demand - side Situation - From January - March 2025, China's total power generation increased by about 1.46% or 33 billion kWh year - on - year. Wind power contributed 41 billion kWh (+16.79%), solar power contributed 35.5 billion kWh (+45.26%), hydropower contributed 13.2 billion kWh (+6.26%), and nuclear power contributed 13.5 billion kWh. However, thermal power, which plays a regulatory role, decreased by about 70 billion kWh or - 4.37% year - on - year, the first negative growth in Q1 power generation since 2021. It is expected that the cumulative decline in April will expand to 89 billion kWh (-4.31%), equivalent to a reduction in coal demand of nearly 27 million tons [13]. - In the first quarter of 2025, despite the chemical industry's coal consumption maintaining a year - on - year high growth of nearly 15%, the total coal demand still showed a year - on - year negative growth due to the significant reduction in power demand [14]. Future Outlook - For coal prices to stop falling and rebound, there needs to be a significant decline in domestic raw coal production on the supply side and an increase in thermal power demand on the demand side [19]. - Currently, the supply side shows no sign of weakening as the output of 462 sample mines maintaining a high level. In the demand side, although the approaching peak electricity consumption season in summer may drive up coal demand, considering the substitution effect of wind and solar power (with an expected average year - on - year increase of 22% in wind power installation and 40% in solar power installation from June - September, and an expected monthly substitution of 31 - 33 billion kWh of thermal power demand), the coal demand during the peak season may not be overly optimistic [23][24].