投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 7 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：从供需来看，安全生产月结束后，主产区煤炭产量逐步恢复，动力煤供应仍维持较高 水平。需求方面，7 月迎峰度夏关键时期，国内电煤需求季节性攀升，数据显示，截至 7 月 3 日， 沿海 8 省电厂煤炭日耗 208.7 万吨，周环比增 18.8 万吨；内陆 17 省电厂煤炭日耗 364.6 万吨， 周环比降 0.6 万吨。另外，国家气候中心最新预测显示，7 月 21 日至 8 月 5 日，我国大部地区气 温仍将高于常年同期，电煤需求预计维持高 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report Since October 2024, the price of thermal coal has been on a continuous decline due to the "double - whammy" of supply and demand. The supply side has seen continuous growth under the "supply guarantee" policy, while the demand side has been significantly suppressed by the substitution effect of new energy sources such as wind and solar power on thermal power. The pressure on coal prices has not been significantly alleviated. May 25th could be a time point to observe whether the price can stabilize, but even if the price stabilizes or rebounds, the strength will likely be limited. A significant rebound in coal prices requires more powerful joint actions on both the supply and demand sides [1][4][28]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Supply - side Situation - Since May 2024, China's raw coal production has been at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. From May - December 2024, the cumulative year - on - year increase in raw coal production was about 4.8%, and from January - March 2025, this year - on - year growth rate rose to 8.78%, with an absolute increase of about 97 million tons [6]. - The main increments come from Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, accounting for 91% of the total increment. Shanxi contributed nearly 54 million tons of increment in the first quarter, and Xinjiang maintained a high - growth rate, contributing about 20.6 million tons of output [8]. - Despite a year - on - year decline in imported coal (a cumulative decrease of 1.05 million tons from January - March and an increase in the year - on - year decline to 8.48 million tons as of April), the total raw coal supply still recorded an increment of over 95 million tons as of March data, creating a loose supply pattern [12]. Demand - side Situation - From January - March 2025, China's total power generation increased by about 1.46% or 33 billion kWh year - on - year. Wind power contributed 41 billion kWh (+16.79%), solar power contributed 35.5 billion kWh (+45.26%), hydropower contributed 13.2 billion kWh (+6.26%), and nuclear power contributed 13.5 billion kWh. However, thermal power, which plays a regulatory role, decreased by about 70 billion kWh or - 4.37% year - on - year, the first negative growth in Q1 power generation since 2021. It is expected that the cumulative decline in April will expand to 89 billion kWh (-4.31%), equivalent to a reduction in coal demand of nearly 27 million tons [13]. - In the first quarter of 2025, despite the chemical industry's coal consumption maintaining a year - on - year high growth of nearly 15%, the total coal demand still showed a year - on - year negative growth due to the significant reduction in power demand [14]. Future Outlook - For coal prices to stop falling and rebound, there needs to be a significant decline in domestic raw coal production on the supply side and an increase in thermal power demand on the demand side [19]. - Currently, the supply side shows no sign of weakening as the output of 462 sample mines maintaining a high level. In the demand side, although the approaching peak electricity consumption season in summer may drive up coal demand, considering the substitution effect of wind and solar power (with an expected average year - on - year increase of 22% in wind power installation and 40% in solar power installation from June - September, and an expected monthly substitution of 31 - 33 billion kWh of thermal power demand), the coal demand during the peak season may not be overly optimistic [23][24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The power coal market is dominated by bearish factors, and domestic coal prices are expected to remain low. The supply - demand imbalance is likely to continue, with high supply and weak demand putting pressure on coal prices [5]. 3. Summary by Key Points Supply - Side - In April, the safety supervision environment in major domestic production areas was stable, and power coal production remained at a high level. Although imports may decline slightly year - on - year, the reduction is limited, and the coal supply pressure remains high [5]. Demand - Side - The demand side of power coal faces double negative factors: the seasonal weakness of thermal coal demand and the suppression of non - electric demand by Sino - US trade frictions. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is expected to continue [5]. Inventory - As of April 29, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim reached 3.1075 billion tons. Although there was a slight de - stocking of 25,700 tons week - on - week, it remained at a high level of 3.1 billion tons and was 726,400 tons higher than the same period last year [5]. Weather - According to the latest forecast of the National Climate Center, in May, except for some areas with slightly lower temperatures than normal, the rest of the country has temperatures close to or higher than normal. The off - season demand will continue to suppress coal prices [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the bearish factors of thermal coal are still accumulating, and the market sentiment remains weak. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is expected to continue, and the domestic coal price is expected to remain at a low level [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Price and Market Conditions of Thermal Coal - The intraday and medium - term view of thermal coal spot is "oscillation". The bearish factors dominate the market trend, and the coal price is under pressure [4]. 2. Supply - side Analysis - In April, the safety supervision environment in the main domestic production areas was stable, and the thermal coal output remained high. Although the import volume may decline slightly year - on - year, the reduction is limited, and the coal supply pressure remains high [4]. 3. Demand - side Analysis - The demand side of thermal coal faces double negative factors: the seasonal weakening of thermal coal for power generation and the suppression of non - power demand by Sino - US trade frictions. The off - season demand will still suppress the coal price [4]. 4. Inventory Analysis - As of April 29, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim reached 3.1075 billion tons. Although the inventory decreased by 257,000 tons week - on - week, it still remained at a high level of 3.1 billion tons and was 726,400 tons higher than the same period last year [4]. 5. Weather Impact - According to the latest forecast of the National Climate Center, in May, except for some areas with slightly lower temperatures than the same period of the year, the temperatures in the rest of the country are close to or higher than the same period of the year. The off - season demand will still suppress the coal price [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for power coal is "oscillation". The bearish factors for power coal are still piling up, and the market sentiment remains weak. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is expected to continue, and domestic coal prices are likely to remain at a low level [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Situation - The power coal market is dominated by bearish factors, and the supply - demand situation shows no significant reversal in the short term [4]. Supply - side Factors - In April, the safety supervision environment in the main domestic production areas was stable, and the power coal output remained high. Although the import volume may decline slightly year - on - year, the reduction is limited, and the coal supply pressure remains high [4]. Demand - side Factors - The demand side of power coal faces double negative impacts: the seasonal weakening of thermal coal demand and the suppression of non - thermal coal demand by Sino - US trade frictions. The off - season demand will continue to suppress coal prices [4]. Inventory Situation - As of April 29, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim reached 31.075 million tons. Although there was a slight weekly de - stocking of 257,000 tons, it remained at a high level of 31 million tons, and the inventory was 7.264 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]. Weather Factor - According to the latest forecast of the National Climate Center, in May, except for some areas with slightly lower temperatures than the same period of the year, the temperatures in the rest of the country are close to or higher than the same period of the year. The off - season demand will still suppress coal prices [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information is provided [1][4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for power coal is "oscillation". With bearish factors piling up, the market sentiment remains weak. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is expected to continue, and domestic coal prices are likely to stay at a low level [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Power Coal Market Situation - The bearish factors in the power coal market are accumulating, and the market is in a weak state. The supply pressure is high as domestic production in main producing areas remains at a high level in April, and the reduction in imports is limited. The demand side faces dual negatives of seasonal decline in thermal coal demand and suppression of non - thermal demand due to Sino - US trade frictions [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply - demand pattern of power coal shows strong supply and weak demand. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals are loose, which exerts pressure on coal prices [4] Inventory Situation - As of April 29, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim reached 3.1075 billion tons. Although there was a weekly de - stocking of 257,000 tons, the inventory remained at a high level of about 3.1 billion tons, 726.4 million tons higher than the same period last year [4] Weather Impact - According to the latest forecast by the National Climate Center, in May, except for some areas with slightly lower temperatures, most parts of the country have temperatures close to or higher than the normal level. The off - season demand will continue to suppress coal prices [4]