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光大期货有色金属类日报12.03
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-03 01:20
Copper - Copper prices experienced a rise and subsequent decline, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The anticipated appointment of a dovish Federal Reserve chairman may strengthen market expectations for monetary easing, but balancing monetary stimulus and inflation remains a challenge [3][10] - Domestic electrolytic copper production is estimated at 1.1688 million tons in December, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.96% and a year-on-year increase of 6.69%. Domestic smelting enterprises continue to ramp up production towards year-end [3][10] - LME copper inventory increased by 2,375 tons to 161,800 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 2,351 tons to 391,851 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 927 tons to 30,568 tons [3][10] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 0.91% to $14,740 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.58% to 117,060 yuan per ton. LME inventory decreased by 396 tons to 254,364 tons [4][11] - Nickel iron prices are declining, and the stainless steel market is showing weak performance with increasing inventory levels. The raw material supply remains tight in the new energy sector, but a decrease in production of ternary precursors is expected in December [4][11] - The pressure on primary nickel inventory is increasing, with production expected to rise in December. The cost of producing nickel is estimated at 110,000 yuan per ton [4][11] Aluminum & Alumina - Alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2601 settling at 2,648 yuan per ton, down 1.08%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a minor drop, closing at 21,840 yuan per ton [5][12] - Market expectations for environmental production limits in northern alumina plants have not materialized, leading to a correction in prices. Aluminum prices are expected to remain supported, but demand momentum may not sustain [5][12][13] - The aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing smoothly, aided by reduced shipments from northern regions [5][12][13] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract settling at 8,975 yuan per ton, down 2.18%. The supply dynamics show a reduction in the south and an increase in the north [6][13] - Polysilicon prices are also weak, with the main contract at 56,315 yuan per ton. The demand from the photovoltaic sector is declining, leading to a negative feedback effect on the industry [6][13] - The strategy of maintaining production without price reductions is being adopted by silicon material manufacturers amid a lack of upward driving forces [6][13] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 0.72% to 96,560 yuan per ton, while the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 50 yuan to 94,400 yuan per ton [7][14] - Weekly production decreased by 265 tons to 21,865 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in supply in December. However, demand for ternary materials is projected to decline by 7% [7][14] - Total inventory turnover days decreased to 26.3 days, indicating a potential slowdown in inventory reduction or accumulation in the future [7][14]