Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz 在访谈中表示，比特币的"最大牛市催化剂"可能来自下一任美联储 主席的任命。如果特朗普兑现承诺挑选鸽派人选，美联储或将采取激进降息立场，推动黄金与比特币双 双飙升，比特币价格"有望冲至 20 万美元"。不过他强调，这对美国而言是"极其糟糕的局面"，甚至可 能导致美联储失去独立性。（Cointelegraph） 来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields have declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, influenced by cautious signals from multiple Federal Reserve policymakers regarding interest rate decisions, leading to a cooling of market expectations for consecutive rate cuts this year [1][4][6] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities have generally increased, with the 2-year yield rising by 3.36 basis points to 3.601%, the 5-year yield up by 2.45 basis points to 3.701%, the 10-year yield increasing by 2.12 basis points to 4.147%, and the 30-year yield climbing by 2.07 basis points to 4.763% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since September 5, reflecting market reactions to economic data and Federal Reserve communications [4] - The two-year Treasury yield also hit a three-week high of over 3.6% during trading, indicating a shift in interest rate expectations [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Communications - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have been relatively hawkish, suggesting limited room for further rate cuts, with St. Louis Fed President Musalem and Atlanta Fed President Bostic expressing caution regarding future rate adjustments [4][5] - The latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve indicates two more rate cuts by 2025, but several officials anticipate no further easing actions before 2026 [6] - Market pricing for rate cuts has adjusted, with traders now expecting a total of 41 basis points in cuts this year, indicating a reduction in the previously higher expectations for multiple cuts [6] Group 3: Market Reactions - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and subsequent communications has led to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, contributing to rising yields [5] - The overall yield curve has shifted higher as the Fed's language has become less dovish, impacting market expectations for upcoming rate cuts in October and December [6] - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming remarks from Fed Chair Powell, as his statements could further influence market sentiment and yield movements [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations, indicating a more unified stance within the FOMC than anticipated by Wall Street [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC's decision was passed with an 11-1 vote, showing strong internal consensus [1]. - The new member, Milan, was the only dissenting vote, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while other members who were expected to oppose the cut ultimately supported the 25 basis point reduction [1][2]. - The FOMC acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity and a deceleration in job growth, highlighting a conflict between price stability and full employment [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The FOMC emphasized the high uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and the increased downside risks to employment [2]. - The dot plot indicates that most officials expect two more rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points, with one member suggesting an additional 125 basis points [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the bond market experienced volatility, with short-term Treasury yields initially falling but later rising due to cautious remarks from Powell [3]. - The S&P 500 index briefly rose before closing down 0.1%, indicating that the market had already priced in the decision [6]. Group 4: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, with job growth nearly stagnant this year, raising concerns within the FOMC about worsening employment conditions [3]. - Powell acknowledged that tariffs imposed by Trump could introduce new inflationary pressures, emphasizing the need for a balance between controlling inflation and maintaining employment [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The dot plot reveals significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with 6 members favoring a pause and 9 members supporting two additional rate cuts this year [3] - A newly appointed member, Stephen Milan, is speculated to advocate for a more aggressive rate cut of 150 basis points [3] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 is concentrated between 3.25%-3.75%, indicating a potential reduction of 75 basis points compared to current levels [4] - The latest economic projections show a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, with an unemployment rate forecast of 4.5% [12] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the recent rate cut as a form of risk management, highlighting the upward risks to inflation and downward risks to employment [5] - Powell noted that rising commodity prices are a significant contributor to inflation, which is expected to continue affecting inflation rates in the remaining months of the year [7] - The labor market is showing signs of softening, and there is a desire to prevent further deterioration [8] Group 4: Institutional Interpretations - Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, Michael Gapen, interpreted the rate cut as a dovish signal, emphasizing the rising risks in the employment sector [9] - Fitch's U.S. economic research head, Olu Sonola, stated that the Fed is prioritizing growth and employment, even at the cost of tolerating higher inflation in the short term [10] - Goldman Sachs' macro strategy head, Simon Dangoor, noted that the majority of Fed members plan to cut rates two more times this year, indicating a dominant dovish stance [10] - Wells Fargo's senior economist, Sarah House, remarked that the meeting's outcome reflects a balance between weakening labor market momentum and persistent high inflation [11]

Core Viewpoint - Gold bulls are eager to buy on dips ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, indicating strong market demand regardless of the Fed's stance [1] Group 1 - In the hours leading up to the Fed's announcement, gold prices reduced their intraday decline from $38 to $12, showcasing a resilient buying interest [1] - The market sentiment suggests that even if the Fed is not currently dovish, it may adopt a more dovish stance in the future [1] - External factors such as Trump's desire to lower interest rates and the ongoing global disorder, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and trade wars, are creating new risks that favor gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target to a range of 4%-4.25% due to a slowing job market and manageable inflation levels [1][4] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Analysts predict that the FOMC will continue to cut rates, with two additional 25 basis point cuts expected in October and December [1] - The prevailing opinion suggests a total of six rate cuts may occur, potentially extending into spring next year, contingent on employment, inflation, and economic activity data [1] Group 2: Internal Disagreements - The FOMC has seen significant internal disagreement, with two members, Bowman and Waller, voting against the last rate decision, advocating for a more aggressive 25 basis point cut [4] - This marks the first instance in over 30 years where two board members simultaneously opposed a rate decision, highlighting increasing divisions within the committee [4] Group 3: Political and Economic Influences - Concerns over a weakening labor market are driving some members to push for lower rates to mitigate recession risks, with Waller warning of potential layoffs if credit conditions remain tight [4] - Political pressures are also influencing FOMC decisions, as recent personnel changes and public statements from former President Trump suggest expectations for a significant rate cut [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is betting on the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts, with a 96.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [3][4]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, matching market expectations, while core CPI also held steady at 3.1% [4][5]. - Non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% [4][5]. Market Expectations - Experts suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to prioritize employment data over inflation, leading to a probable 25 basis point rate cut [5][6]. - The market anticipates two to three rate cuts within the year, totaling around 50 to 75 basis points [9][10]. Long-term Projections - The Federal Reserve may enter a sustained rate-cutting cycle, potentially lowering rates by 200 basis points over the next year, bringing rates to between 2.25% and 2.5% [10][11]. - The long-term trajectory of interest rates remains uncertain due to factors such as globalization trends and fiscal deficits [10][11]. Political Influences - The political landscape is increasingly affecting the Federal Reserve's decisions, with recent appointments reflecting a mix of influences from both the Trump and Biden administrations [14][15]. - The potential for a more aggressive rate-cutting approach may arise if new political pressures are applied following recent appointments [15][16].

在美联储本周关键利率决议前夕，两项人事变动为高度紧张的市场增添了戏剧性。 甚至有分析认为，FOMC可能出现罕见的"四方混战"局面，对市场预期构成重大挑战。 Cook获准留任，但投票立场成谜 据央视报道，当地时间9月15日，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦上诉法院驳回了美国司法部的紧急申请，维持 了下级法院暂时阻止特朗普撤换Lisa Cook的禁令。 这意味着Cook将能够参加本周的美联储会议。 几乎在同一时间，据央视新闻，参议院以48票对47票的微弱优势，通过了对Stephen Miran出任美联储理 事会成员的提名。在共和党的快速推动下，Miran预计将于周二上午履新，可能也正好赶上本周的美联 储会议。 白宫支持的候选人成功入主美联储理事会，而一位面临总统解雇压力的现任理事则通过法庭裁决保住了 投票权，这使得一场关于央行独立性的政治角力，直接延伸到了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的决策 桌上，让本已备受关注的利率决议更添变数。 虽然市场普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点，但两位立场截然不同的投票委员的加入，让最终结果变得难 以预测。 Cook的留任为此次会议增添了最大的不确定性。上月，因面临虚报主要住所的抵押贷款欺诈指控， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve have added uncertainty to the upcoming interest rate decision, with the potential for a divided voting outcome among committee members [1][3][4]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - Lisa Cook has been allowed to remain on the Federal Reserve Board, which adds significant uncertainty to the upcoming meeting [3][6]. - Stephen Miran's nomination was swiftly approved by the Senate, and he is expected to strengthen the dovish camp within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3][11]. - The contrasting situations of Cook and Miran highlight the political tensions affecting the Federal Reserve's independence [10][12]. Group 2: Voting Dynamics - The market generally anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, but the inclusion of Cook and Miran could lead to a rare "four-way split" in voting [4][13]. - Possible voting factions include a dovish camp supporting a 50 basis point cut, a moderate camp favoring a 25 basis point cut, a group advocating for no change, and the potential for Cook to unexpectedly support a rate hike [14][15]. - If an unprecedented outcome occurs, it could lead to significant confusion in policy signals from the FOMC and unpredictable market reactions [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, which add uncertainty to the upcoming interest rate decision, highlighting the political dynamics affecting the central bank's independence [1][3][4]. Group 1: Personnel Changes and Their Implications - The U.S. Court of Appeals upheld a lower court's decision preventing Trump from removing Lisa Cook, allowing her to participate in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [2][3]. - The Senate narrowly confirmed Stephen Miran as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, which is expected to strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC [3][9]. - Cook's position is uncertain due to ongoing legal issues, which have become a focal point in the tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve [6][7]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Predictions - The market generally anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but the addition of two contrasting voting members complicates the prediction [4][12]. - Analysts suggest a rare "four-way split" voting scenario could emerge, leading to significant confusion in policy signals from the FOMC [5][13]. - The potential voting factions include a dovish camp supporting a 50 basis point cut, a moderate camp favoring a 25 basis point cut, a group advocating for no change, and Cook possibly voting for a 25 basis point increase [13].