市场主要反对意见包括工资不会下降和大规模财政刺激导致经济过热， 以及欧洲央行对当前 2%利率水平感到满意。但实际数据若证明不实施 货币刺激无法让通胀回升至目标水平，讨论方向将会转变。 Q&A 大摩闭门会：全球主要央行路径展望 20260124 摘要 预计 2026 年美国经济增速将与 2025 年持平，关键在于通胀走势。企 业转嫁关税成本至少持续到 2026 年一季度末，之后通胀压力有望缓解， 美联储或于下半年降息一到两次。 2025 年美国经济超预期表现部分源于贸易和库存波动的机械性结果， 以及消费偏离基本面，AI 支出和财政政策的提振作用难以进一步增强， 因此 2026 年经济加速增长的可能性较低。 美联储可能不按预测降息，若重要法案对市场信心和企业支出刺激超预 期，可能推动经济出现需求驱动的信心提振，导致通胀放缓不及预期。 对日本经济前景持乐观态度，预计 GDP 保持稳健增长。消费者将逐步摆 脱供给端通胀导致实际工资增长低迷局面，转向实际工资加速增长阶段， 从而支撑实际消费并推动通胀从供给驱动转向需求驱动。 日元贬值给日本央行带来挑战，需求端压力将逐步累积并推动通胀上升， 日本央行或需提前加息以避免汇率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The core theme of the global economy is shifting from monetary stimulus to fiscal stimulus, with an expectation of increased government borrowing and a focus on debt sustainability in global economic discussions [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - More countries are expected to turn towards fiscal spending this year, indicating a rise in government borrowing [1] - Market liquidity, which peaked in 2025, is anticipated to reverse its expansion trend this year [1] Group 2: Inflation and Central Bank Positioning - Inflation risks may be underestimated as liquidity flows into the real economy and fiscal stimulus increases, while the cost of living remains high [1] - These trends could lead to a more passive position for central banks [1]

Group 1 - The recent economic turmoil in the US is highlighted by the Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate cuts and the worst unemployment data in five years, raising concerns about the US's ability to compete with China [1][3] - The unemployment claims surged to 236,000, a significant increase from the previous week's 192,000, marking the highest level since the pandemic began, indicating a fragile economic foundation [3][5] - The financial market's reaction is counterintuitive, with the stock market rising despite poor economic indicators, suggesting that investors are more focused on the prospect of continued monetary easing rather than the underlying economic issues [5][9] Group 2 - A wave of bankruptcies is affecting small businesses, with 2,221 small businesses filing for bankruptcy in the first 11 months of 2025, an 8% increase from the previous year, reflecting a broader economic malaise [7][9] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is facing internal divisions, with some officials advocating for no rate cuts until 2026, indicating a lack of consensus on how to address the economic challenges [9][11] - In contrast, China's economic policies are characterized by targeted measures to maintain growth and reduce costs, with a GDP growth of 5.2% and a decrease in corporate loan rates, showcasing a more stable economic approach [11][13] Group 3 - The resilience of the Chinese economy is emphasized, with the ability to maintain financial stability despite external pressures from US monetary policy, providing China with greater policy flexibility [13][14] - The long-term economic strategies of the US, reliant on monetary stimulus and facing structural weaknesses, are contrasted with China's focus on high-quality development and precise economic adjustments [14]

Copper - Copper prices experienced a rise and subsequent decline, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The anticipated appointment of a dovish Federal Reserve chairman may strengthen market expectations for monetary easing, but balancing monetary stimulus and inflation remains a challenge [3][10] - Domestic electrolytic copper production is estimated at 1.1688 million tons in December, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.96% and a year-on-year increase of 6.69%. Domestic smelting enterprises continue to ramp up production towards year-end [3][10] - LME copper inventory increased by 2,375 tons to 161,800 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 2,351 tons to 391,851 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 927 tons to 30,568 tons [3][10] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 0.91% to $14,740 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.58% to 117,060 yuan per ton. LME inventory decreased by 396 tons to 254,364 tons [4][11] - Nickel iron prices are declining, and the stainless steel market is showing weak performance with increasing inventory levels. The raw material supply remains tight in the new energy sector, but a decrease in production of ternary precursors is expected in December [4][11] - The pressure on primary nickel inventory is increasing, with production expected to rise in December. The cost of producing nickel is estimated at 110,000 yuan per ton [4][11] Aluminum & Alumina - Alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2601 settling at 2,648 yuan per ton, down 1.08%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a minor drop, closing at 21,840 yuan per ton [5][12] - Market expectations for environmental production limits in northern alumina plants have not materialized, leading to a correction in prices. Aluminum prices are expected to remain supported, but demand momentum may not sustain [5][12][13] - The aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing smoothly, aided by reduced shipments from northern regions [5][12][13] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract settling at 8,975 yuan per ton, down 2.18%. The supply dynamics show a reduction in the south and an increase in the north [6][13] - Polysilicon prices are also weak, with the main contract at 56,315 yuan per ton. The demand from the photovoltaic sector is declining, leading to a negative feedback effect on the industry [6][13] - The strategy of maintaining production without price reductions is being adopted by silicon material manufacturers amid a lack of upward driving forces [6][13] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 0.72% to 96,560 yuan per ton, while the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 50 yuan to 94,400 yuan per ton [7][14] - Weekly production decreased by 265 tons to 21,865 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in supply in December. However, demand for ternary materials is projected to decline by 7% [7][14] - Total inventory turnover days decreased to 26.3 days, indicating a potential slowdown in inventory reduction or accumulation in the future [7][14]

Group 1 - The introduction of two financial policies, personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies, is expected to have a significant impact on the economy [1][2] - There is a viewpoint suggesting that the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus will be greater than that of monetary stimulus in the long term [3] - The current economic environment indicates that if the financing cost of the US dollar remains significantly lower than that of the Chinese yuan, fiscal stimulus will take precedence over monetary stimulus [4][5] Group 2 - The issue of existing mortgage rates is closely linked to the overall economic situation, with a potential for recovery if mortgage rates decrease significantly [11][14] - The current economic conditions show that income retraction is much greater than the reduction in monthly mortgage payments, leading to insufficient consumer demand [9][10] - The expectation is that existing mortgage rates will continue to decline, which could restore liquidity in the real estate market [33] Group 3 - The ongoing financial battle with the US is not over, and the US is still seeking weaknesses in China's economy [12][27] - The potential for a significant drop in core city housing prices hinges on whether existing mortgage rates can reach a level that allows for positive cash flow from property ownership [13][14] - The financial policies being implemented are seen as a direct response to the current economic challenges, with a focus on supporting those who own property [36][41] Group 4 - The upcoming year is critical, as the US Federal Reserve is likely to adopt aggressive interest rate cuts, which will impact various asset classes [30] - The belief in China's economic resilience is crucial for the recovery of the core city real estate market and the overall financial landscape [38][39] - The current financial policies are viewed as a means to support residents with property, who are seen as the backbone of the financial system [41]

Group 1 - The core consumer price index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, slightly below the expected 3.4%, and down from 3.7% in May, indicating a cooling inflation trend [1][2] - Energy price increases have slowed, contributing to the decline in the core CPI, while the core-core CPI, which excludes energy prices, rose by 3.4%, the fastest growth since January of the previous year [1][2] - The latest inflation data may prompt the Bank of Japan to continue its interest rate hike path, with expectations that the central bank will maintain the benchmark interest rate at its next policy meeting on July 31 [2][3] Group 2 - The rising prices of rice, which have doubled year-on-year, have drawn national attention and forced the government to take unprecedented measures, including utilizing emergency food reserves [2] - The increase in service prices, which rose by 1.5% year-on-year in June, indicates a broader inflationary trend, with Japan's inflation rate exceeding that of other G7 countries [3] - The persistent inflation in Japan is attributed to changing public expectations regarding price increases, breaking a long-standing deflationary pattern, and companies are more willing to pass on costs to consumers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's executive director Benjamin emphasizes that banks have motivations beyond simply hoarding excess liquidity during periods of special monetary stimulus [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the behavior of banks in response to monetary policy, indicating that they may not always choose to accumulate excess liquidity [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trends and rankings in the Chinese bond underwriting and syndicate loan markets for the first half of 2025, showcasing the performance of various financial institutions [2][3][5]. - The total issuance of Panda bonds reached 208.25 billion yuan in 2024, with a decrease of 18.12% to 96.25 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year [5]. - The overall issuance of credit bonds in China for the first half of 2025 was approximately 8.8 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.41% compared to the same period in 2024 [12]. Group 2 - The top three underwriters in the Chinese bond market for the first half of 2025 were CITIC Securities (5.813%), Industrial Bank (5.609%), and Guotai Junan Securities (5.604%) [7]. - In the offshore RMB bond market (excluding certificates of deposit), the leading banks were Bank of China (5.772%), Guotai Junan Securities (4.952%), and CICC (4.330%) [20]. - The issuance of offshore bonds by Chinese enterprises (excluding certificates of deposit) exceeded 733.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a growth of approximately 13.65% compared to the previous year [21]. Group 3 - The total issuance of syndicated loans in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) reached 216.6 billion USD in the first half of 2025, a decline of 18% year-on-year [26]. - The top three underwriters in the Asia-Pacific syndicated loan market were Bank of China (6.12%), DBS Bank (4.56%), and Korea National Bank (4.15%) [28]. - The Chinese onshore syndicated loan market saw a significant decline of 67% in issuance, while the offshore market experienced a growth of 50% [30]. Group 4 - The issuance of green syndicated loans in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) increased by 61% year-on-year, reaching 33.4 billion USD, marking a historical high since 2014 [35]. - The major contributors to the growth of green loans were Australia, Singapore, and China, accounting for 27%, 13%, and 12% of the market share, respectively [35].