哈喽，大家好，小圆这篇国际评论，主要来分析近期美国经济圈的连环暴击，美联储刚急匆匆宣布降息 救市，紧接着失业数据就爆出五年来最差表现，这两个噩耗叠在一起，让人不禁想问：如今的美国，还 剩多少筹码能跟中国抗衡？ 其实从美联储的鹰派降息到就业市场的突然崩盘，背后藏着美国经济的深层隐患，而中国这边的稳健操 作，恰好形成了鲜明对比。 失业数据飙破纪录 12月刚过半，美国劳工部门就抛出了一颗"炸弹"：截至12月6日当周，首次申领失业金的人数飙到23.6 万，比前一周的19.2万暴涨了4.4万，这个增幅直接创下2020年疫情爆发以来的新高，可能有朋友觉得数 字不够直观。 给大家捋捋：这不仅远超市场预期的22万，更打破了此前连续数周的下降趋势，相当于一周内突然多了 近5万人失去工作保障，要知道2020年疫情时，美国靠4.8万亿美元的天量刺激才稳住就业，如今这个数 据直逼当时，足见经济基本面的脆弱。 可放水这招早就不灵了，2020年的4.8万亿美元刺激，已经让美国债务高企，如今再搞新一轮刺激，无 非是拆东墙补西墙，更尴尬的是美联储内部已经分裂，19名官员里有7人主张2026年不降息，3人甚至要 加息，能达成降息共识全靠就业数 ...

铜： 隔夜内外铜价冲高回落，国内精铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普周二在白宫内阁会议 上表示，明年年初公布美联储新任主席，并在一场活动上暗示人选为哈塞特，市场认为鸽派代表人物哈 塞特若当选，将强化市场对鸽派押注，但货币刺激与通胀如何平衡则面临挑战。国内方面，关注即将召 开的中央经济工作会议。基本面方面，国内12月电解铜预估产量116.88万吨，环比增加5.96%，同比增 加6.69%，国内冶炼企业年底继续有冲产量的动作；需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终端订单有所放缓， 市场维系刚性采购需求。库存方面，LME库存增加2375吨至161800吨；Comex库存增加2351吨至391851 吨；SHFE铜仓单下降927吨至30568吨；BC铜仓单下降623吨至4879吨。美联储12月降息充分定价下， 宏观是否仍能维系乐观情绪未知，但从微观角度看，精矿短缺的故事支撑铜维系高估值，特别是CSPT 声明再次搅动国内精铜供给预期，但随着淡季来临，微观依然看不到需求的快速释放，因此价格能否持 续回升存在不确定性。 镍&不锈钢： 镍&不锈钢：隔夜LME镍跌0.91%报14740美元/吨，沪镍跌0.58%报117060元 ...

Group 1 - The introduction of two financial policies, personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies, is expected to have a significant impact on the economy [1][2] - There is a viewpoint suggesting that the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus will be greater than that of monetary stimulus in the long term [3] - The current economic environment indicates that if the financing cost of the US dollar remains significantly lower than that of the Chinese yuan, fiscal stimulus will take precedence over monetary stimulus [4][5] Group 2 - The issue of existing mortgage rates is closely linked to the overall economic situation, with a potential for recovery if mortgage rates decrease significantly [11][14] - The current economic conditions show that income retraction is much greater than the reduction in monthly mortgage payments, leading to insufficient consumer demand [9][10] - The expectation is that existing mortgage rates will continue to decline, which could restore liquidity in the real estate market [33] Group 3 - The ongoing financial battle with the US is not over, and the US is still seeking weaknesses in China's economy [12][27] - The potential for a significant drop in core city housing prices hinges on whether existing mortgage rates can reach a level that allows for positive cash flow from property ownership [13][14] - The financial policies being implemented are seen as a direct response to the current economic challenges, with a focus on supporting those who own property [36][41] Group 4 - The upcoming year is critical, as the US Federal Reserve is likely to adopt aggressive interest rate cuts, which will impact various asset classes [30] - The belief in China's economic resilience is crucial for the recovery of the core city real estate market and the overall financial landscape [38][39] - The current financial policies are viewed as a means to support residents with property, who are seen as the backbone of the financial system [41]

Group 1 - The core consumer price index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, slightly below the expected 3.4%, and down from 3.7% in May, indicating a cooling inflation trend [1][2] - Energy price increases have slowed, contributing to the decline in the core CPI, while the core-core CPI, which excludes energy prices, rose by 3.4%, the fastest growth since January of the previous year [1][2] - The latest inflation data may prompt the Bank of Japan to continue its interest rate hike path, with expectations that the central bank will maintain the benchmark interest rate at its next policy meeting on July 31 [2][3] Group 2 - The rising prices of rice, which have doubled year-on-year, have drawn national attention and forced the government to take unprecedented measures, including utilizing emergency food reserves [2] - The increase in service prices, which rose by 1.5% year-on-year in June, indicates a broader inflationary trend, with Japan's inflation rate exceeding that of other G7 countries [3] - The persistent inflation in Japan is attributed to changing public expectations regarding price increases, breaking a long-standing deflationary pattern, and companies are more willing to pass on costs to consumers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's executive director Benjamin emphasizes that banks have motivations beyond simply hoarding excess liquidity during periods of special monetary stimulus [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the behavior of banks in response to monetary policy, indicating that they may not always choose to accumulate excess liquidity [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trends and rankings in the Chinese bond underwriting and syndicate loan markets for the first half of 2025, showcasing the performance of various financial institutions [2][3][5]. - The total issuance of Panda bonds reached 208.25 billion yuan in 2024, with a decrease of 18.12% to 96.25 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year [5]. - The overall issuance of credit bonds in China for the first half of 2025 was approximately 8.8 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.41% compared to the same period in 2024 [12]. Group 2 - The top three underwriters in the Chinese bond market for the first half of 2025 were CITIC Securities (5.813%), Industrial Bank (5.609%), and Guotai Junan Securities (5.604%) [7]. - In the offshore RMB bond market (excluding certificates of deposit), the leading banks were Bank of China (5.772%), Guotai Junan Securities (4.952%), and CICC (4.330%) [20]. - The issuance of offshore bonds by Chinese enterprises (excluding certificates of deposit) exceeded 733.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a growth of approximately 13.65% compared to the previous year [21]. Group 3 - The total issuance of syndicated loans in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) reached 216.6 billion USD in the first half of 2025, a decline of 18% year-on-year [26]. - The top three underwriters in the Asia-Pacific syndicated loan market were Bank of China (6.12%), DBS Bank (4.56%), and Korea National Bank (4.15%) [28]. - The Chinese onshore syndicated loan market saw a significant decline of 67% in issuance, while the offshore market experienced a growth of 50% [30]. Group 4 - The issuance of green syndicated loans in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) increased by 61% year-on-year, reaching 33.4 billion USD, marking a historical high since 2014 [35]. - The major contributors to the growth of green loans were Australia, Singapore, and China, accounting for 27%, 13%, and 12% of the market share, respectively [35].