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洽洽食品(002557):3Q25毛利率环比改善,新财年收入规划双位数增长
Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the return of its relevant broad market benchmark [20]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight year-on-year decline in revenue for the first nine months of 2025, with total operating revenue of RMB 4.50 billion, down 5.4% year-on-year, and a significant drop in net profit attributable to owners, which fell by 73.2% to RMB 170 million [2][8]. - The gross profit margin for the first nine months was 21.9%, contracting by 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, but the gross margin for 3Q25 showed a sequential improvement to 24.5% [2][9]. - The company has set a clear revenue growth target of 10%-15% for the new fiscal year, with specific growth targets for sunflower seeds and nuts [4][11]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of RMB 4.50 billion, a decrease of 5.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to owners of RMB 170 million, down 73.2% year-on-year [2][8]. - The gross profit margin for the first nine months was 21.9%, down 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for 3Q25 was 24.5%, showing a sequential increase [2][9]. - The effective tax rate for the first nine months was 26.6%, up from 21.2% in the prior year period [2][8]. Revenue Structure and Product Performance - In 3Q25, the revenue from the sunflower seed business declined due to proactive control of sales, while the nut business grew by approximately 10%-20%, benefiting from strong performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival [3][9]. - The management indicated that the gross margin for nuts decreased by over 10 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising prices of key raw materials [3][9]. Raw Material Costs and Future Outlook - Procurement prices for sunflower seeds have decreased compared to the same period in 2024, which is expected to benefit gross margins in 4Q25 and FY2026 [4][10]. - The company plans to enhance long-term control over core raw materials by expanding contract farming [10]. New Fiscal Year Plan - The company aims for sales revenue growth of 10%-15% for the period from July 2025 to June 2026, with specific targets for sunflower seeds and nuts [4][11]. - New product initiatives include a focus on konjac, with a target scale of RMB 50-100 million [4][11]. Channel Development - The traditional Key Account (KA) channel's contribution to sales has decreased from 40% to 35%, while the Snack Discount channel has seen rapid growth [5][12]. - Membership stores have performed well, with significant sales growth in the Hema channel [5][12].