Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 10.0, indicating a potential upside of 36% from the current price of HKD 7.35 [1][4][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached RMB 17.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, while the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 840 million, down 12.8% year-on-year. The performance was in line with expectations [2][4]. - The decline in net profit was primarily due to a decrease in urea prices and systematic maintenance at key production bases, which limited the release of core product capacity and increased production costs [2][3]. - New projects are expected to significantly reduce production costs, leading to a potential surge in profitability as these low-cost capacities are gradually released [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Urea's average selling price for the first three quarters was RMB 1,703 per ton, down 16% year-on-year, with sales volume decreasing by 4% to 2.668 million tons. The gross margin for urea fell by 7 percentage points to 22% [3]. - The company experienced a total production reduction of approximately 269,000 tons across key products, impacting profits by about RMB 230 million [2][3]. - The new phase of the Jiujiang base commenced operations in Q3 2025, utilizing more efficient and environmentally friendly technology, which is expected to lower overall production costs by 10% [4]. Financial Projections - The forecasted sales revenue for FY2025 is RMB 25.44 billion, with a growth rate of 10% [5]. - The projected net profit for FY2025 is RMB 1.09 billion, reflecting a decline of 25% compared to the previous year [5]. - The gross margin is expected to be 16.3% in FY2025, with a net profit margin of 4.3% [5].