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中信证券:预计大航3Q25或实现50~60亿元利润 看好未来两年航司的业绩表现
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 00:45
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the tourism sector, particularly aviation, has benefited from high demand for personal travel during long holidays, reinforcing market elasticity during peak seasons [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The aviation industry has seen a significant increase in the proportion of personal travel passengers, which has strengthened the elasticity of the peak season market [1][6]. - Since early 2023, various policies have been guiding the civil aviation industry towards "anti-involution," leading to an optimistic outlook for ticket pricing during the summer travel season [1][6]. - The substantial drop in international oil prices since April, combined with a narrowing decline in domestic ticket prices, is expected to allow major airlines to achieve near breakeven profit in Q2 2023 [1][4][6]. Group 2: Profitability and Cost Management - CITIC Securities forecasts that major airlines could achieve profits of 5 to 6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a historical high for a single third quarter [1][6]. - The implementation of revenue management strategies has begun to show results, with the average price of aviation kerosene decreasing by 16.9% year-on-year, significantly contributing to profitability improvements for airlines in Q2 2025 [2][4]. - The tightening supply situation and the structural changes in demand are expected to drive ticket price elasticity, indicating a potential turning point for airline profitability [2][3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The analysis of travel patterns since 2025 suggests that previous operational challenges in the civil aviation sector are being resolved, with improvements in ticket pricing and inbound/outbound demand structures [3]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards valuing emotional and experiential aspects of travel, which is expected to sustain demand for tourism [3]. - The introduction of new aircraft is projected to be lower than planned, contributing to a favorable supply-demand dynamic that supports ticket price recovery [3][4].