Core Viewpoint - Intel's latest financial report indicates a potential shift in strategy, with CEO Pat Gelsinger stating that if the next-generation 14A process does not attract "large customers," continued investment in this process may not be economically viable [1] Group 1: Intel's Strategy and Market Impact - Intel is currently pushing forward with the 14A process, but this is contingent on confirming customer commitments; without sufficient external orders and technical collaborations, it will be difficult to recoup investments [1] - Bernstein warns that if Intel abandons the 14A or more advanced processes, it could severely impact the overall wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market, as Intel accounts for 20% of global logic chip equipment spending and 10-15% of overall semiconductor equipment [1] - The potential exit of Intel from advanced process development could lead to a significant market contraction [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Implications - The EUV equipment supply chain is particularly sensitive, with Japan's Lasertec having about 40% of its unfulfilled orders from Intel, and ASML relying on Intel for 15-20% of its EUV revenue; a halt in Intel's process upgrades could delay the adoption of High-NA EUV equipment [2] - TSMC is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of Intel's potential exit, as it has the capability to take over Intel's orders due to its advanced process technology and yield [2] - The supply chain may undergo restructuring, with HOYA potentially increasing its market share from 70% to 100% if Intel withdraws from the EUV mask substrate supply [2] Group 3: Financial Considerations - Transitioning to a fabless model could theoretically improve Intel's stock price, but if it only halts the 14A process while retaining the 18A process, it would still incur high capital expenditures and potentially lower margins due to outsourcing [2] - Bernstein cautions that this scenario could exacerbate market uncertainties, leading the firm to recommend reallocating funds to other investment opportunities rather than buying Intel stock [2]