如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来 源 ：内容 编译自 wccftech 。 投资银行高盛认为，中国光刻机公司至少落后美国同行20年。光刻技术是半导体制造的几个环节 之一，也是阻碍中国制造高端芯片的唯一瓶颈。最先进的光刻机由荷兰公司ASML制造，由于其依 赖美国原产的零部件，美国政府有权限制其对华销售。 为遵守国际出口管制规范「瓦圣那协议」(Wassenaar Arrangement)，ASML从未将EUV设备出口 至中国。 美国政府正在对ASML施压，希望该公司不要再为贩售至中国的先进DUV系统提供维修服务，以 符合目前对中国半导体业的制裁行动。然而，荷兰政府尚未同意美方要求。 ASML希望保留售中 设备的控制权、以免敏感资讯外流，倘若中国企业接管维修工作，将无法保证敏感资讯是否泄漏。 点这里加关注，锁定更多原创内容 *免责声明：文章内容系作者个人观点，半导体芯闻转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点，不代表半导体芯闻对该 观点赞同或支持，如果有任何异议，欢迎联系我们。 推荐阅读 10万亿，投向半导体 芯片巨头，市值大跌 黄仁勋：HBM是个技术奇迹 Jim Keller：RISC-V一定会胜出 光刻是芯片制 ...

Group 1: TSMC's 2nm Process Leak Incident - TSMC announced a leak of confidential information related to its 2nm chip process, resulting in the dismissal of involved employees and the initiation of legal proceedings [2] - TSMC's 2nm process is expected to enter mass production in the second half of this year, with the A20 chip for the iPhone 18 series being one of its first applications [2] - TSMC's 2nm process has achieved a yield rate exceeding 80%, which is sufficient for mass production and revenue generation [2][3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - TSMC holds a significant market share of approximately 67.6%, while Samsung has about 7.7%, highlighting the competitive gap [3] - Samsung plans to start mass production of its 2nm process in the first half of 2026, despite initial yield rates being lower than TSMC's [3][5] - Intel aims to disrupt the market with its 18A process, which is equivalent to 1.8nm, but faces challenges with yield rates and production timelines [6][7] Group 3: Market Outlook and Applications - The global market for 2nm and similar processes is projected to exceed $50 billion by 2025, with an annual growth rate of over 20% [5] - The introduction of 2nm technology is expected to benefit downstream applications, particularly in consumer electronics, AI, and IoT [8][9] - Companies like Apple and NVIDIA are anticipated to leverage 2nm chips for enhanced performance in their next-generation products [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Intel's latest financial report indicates a potential shift in strategy, with CEO Pat Gelsinger stating that if the next-generation 14A process does not attract "large customers," continued investment in this process may not be economically viable [1] Group 1: Intel's Strategy and Market Impact - Intel is currently pushing forward with the 14A process, but this is contingent on confirming customer commitments; without sufficient external orders and technical collaborations, it will be difficult to recoup investments [1] - Bernstein warns that if Intel abandons the 14A or more advanced processes, it could severely impact the overall wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market, as Intel accounts for 20% of global logic chip equipment spending and 10-15% of overall semiconductor equipment [1] - The potential exit of Intel from advanced process development could lead to a significant market contraction [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Implications - The EUV equipment supply chain is particularly sensitive, with Japan's Lasertec having about 40% of its unfulfilled orders from Intel, and ASML relying on Intel for 15-20% of its EUV revenue; a halt in Intel's process upgrades could delay the adoption of High-NA EUV equipment [2] - TSMC is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of Intel's potential exit, as it has the capability to take over Intel's orders due to its advanced process technology and yield [2] - The supply chain may undergo restructuring, with HOYA potentially increasing its market share from 70% to 100% if Intel withdraws from the EUV mask substrate supply [2] Group 3: Financial Considerations - Transitioning to a fabless model could theoretically improve Intel's stock price, but if it only halts the 14A process while retaining the 18A process, it would still incur high capital expenditures and potentially lower margins due to outsourcing [2] - Bernstein cautions that this scenario could exacerbate market uncertainties, leading the firm to recommend reallocating funds to other investment opportunities rather than buying Intel stock [2]

Group 1 - The Chinese semiconductor industry is facing significant challenges due to U.S. sanctions, particularly the inability to obtain EUV equipment, leading to reliance on DUV technology for process improvements [1][3] - Recent reports indicate that domestic 5nm chips have achieved mass production with yield rates improving from 35% to 60%-70%, nearing TSMC's initial SF3 yield levels [1][3] - There are doubts regarding the feasibility of achieving high yields with 5nm technology using DUV equipment, with estimates suggesting a 50% increase in costs [1][3] Group 2 - Engineers have utilized quadruple patterning technology (SAQP) to enhance the resolution of DUV equipment, allowing for more precise chip designs despite inherent limitations [3] - Currently, there are no commercially available products utilizing the 5nm process, with the latest Kirin X90 chip still based on 7nm technology [3] - If the rumors about the 5nm process are confirmed, it would represent a significant positive development for all domestic chip manufacturers [3] Group 3 - The global semiconductor industry is closely monitoring China's technological advancements, with reports suggesting that China is testing its own EUV equipment, potentially starting production in the third quarter of this year [3][4] - Successful domestic production of EUV equipment would signify a breakthrough in China's semiconductor industry, enabling further advancements in process technology and challenging major players like Intel, Samsung, and TSMC [4]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of ASML in Q2 is driven by AI investments, with total revenue reaching €7.7 billion and net profit at €2.3 billion, both at the upper end of guidance. However, management warns of increasing uncertainties due to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, which may hinder growth in 2026 [1][2][7]. Financial Performance - Q2 net sales amounted to €7.69 billion, exceeding market expectations of €7.51 billion [3]. - Q2 net profit was €2.29 billion, surpassing the market forecast of €2.05 billion [4]. - The order intake for Q2 was €5.54 billion, a 41% increase quarter-over-quarter, with EUV equipment orders at €2.3 billion [5]. - Gross margin reached 53.7%, exceeding expectations, primarily due to high-margin upgrade business and one-time cost reductions [6]. Future Outlook - Despite strong order performance, ASML's management remains cautious about future growth prospects. The CEO indicated that while the fundamentals for AI customers will remain strong in 2026, uncertainties from macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are increasing [7]. - The company expects Q3 net sales to be between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, with a gross margin between 50% and 52% [11]. - For the full year 2025, ASML anticipates a revenue growth of approximately 15% and a gross margin of around 52% [12]. Shareholder Returns - ASML announced an interim dividend of €1.60 per share and executed a share buyback of approximately €1.4 billion in Q2 [13].

Group 1: Financial Performance - ASML reported Q1 2025 revenue of €7.742 billion, a decrease of 16.42% QoQ but an increase of 46.35% YoY, aligning with previous guidance of €7.5-8 billion[2] - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 54.0%, up 2.3 percentage points QoQ and 3.0 percentage points YoY, exceeding the expected range of 52-53%[2] - Equipment sales accounted for €5.7 billion, with Installed Base Management revenue at €2 billion, slightly below the guidance of €2.1 billion[8] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by region: Taiwan 16%, South Korea 40%, Mainland China 27%, USA 16%, Japan 1%[14] - In Q1 2025, equipment orders totaled €3.936 billion, with logic business representing 60% and memory business 40%[11] Group 3: Future Guidance - For Q2 2025, ASML expects revenue between €7.2 billion and €7.7 billion, a QoQ decrease of 7.00% to 0.54% and a YoY increase of 15.33% to 23.34%[19] - Full-year 2025 revenue is projected to be between €30 billion and €35 billion, with a gross margin of 51%-53%[20] Group 4: Market Dynamics - AI remains a key driver for industry growth, with potential for revenue to reach the upper end of guidance if demand continues and clients can scale production[3] - The company anticipates a slight decline in the revenue share from Mainland China, projected to be just above 25% in 2025[4]