截至2026年2月10日，阿斯麦股价报1,413.62美元，近5日涨跌幅1.38%，近20日涨跌幅10.45%。2月6日 股价单日大涨4.66%，反映财报利好，但2月10日小幅回调0.98%，区间振幅9.11%，成交金额达84.93亿 美元，显示市场对增长预期反应积极。 经济观察网阿斯麦于2026年1月28日发布2025年第四季度及全年财报，显示2025年净销售额达327亿欧 元，净利润96亿欧元，均创历史新高。第四季度订单额131.58亿欧元，其中EUV订单74亿欧元，订单积 压规模388亿欧元，远超市场预期。公司预计2026年净销售额在340亿至390亿欧元之间，毛利率维持在 51%至53%区间，并宣布启动120亿欧元股票回购计划(执行至2028年底)。首席执行官傅恪礼指出，人工 智能需求推动客户扩产，直接带动EUV设备增长。 股票近期走势 2026年2月9日，比利时微电子研究中心启用25亿欧元芯片中试线，阿斯麦作为最大私人投资方参与，其 高数值孔径极紫外光刻机预计3月交付，旨在强化欧洲半导体研发能力。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 机构观点 分析指出，阿斯麦在2026年护城河稳固，High ...

美媒很困惑：中国市场份额暴跌，为什么阿斯麦放着中国员工不裁，被干掉的全是欧美人？ 2026年1月的维尔德霍芬，天气阴冷，但阿斯麦总部的数据却异常刺眼，一边是132亿欧元的单季度订单额，创下公司历史纪录，另一边，却是裁员1700人的 内部通知。 这种"赚钱最多的时候砍人"的操作，在资本市场并不少见，但真正反常的，并不是裁员本身，而是裁员发生的地点。 按很多人熟悉的叙事逻辑，答案本该很简单：出口管制收紧，中国市场受限，收入占比下滑，裁员自然应该从中国区开始。 毕竟，从公开数据看，中国市场的营收占比正从高峰期的三成以上下探到约20%，而且舆论场里反复渲染"2026年是中国半导体被彻底锁死的一年"，如果只 按这种线性逻辑推演，裁中国员工，似乎顺理成章。 但真实的裁员地图却完全相反，被裁岗位高度集中在荷兰总部和美国分部，中国区几乎没有受到冲击，换句话说，那个被反复唱衰的区域，反而成了最安全 的部分，这不是偶然，也不是管理层判断失误，而是一次非常冷静的取舍。 阿斯麦的管理层面对的，并不是"哪块市场政治风险更低"，而是一个更现实的问题：在当前的技术周期和行业节奏下，哪些岗位是真正不可替代的，哪些岗 位反而在拖慢公司反应速度 ...

浙商机械【半导体设备】阿斯麦四季度订单大超预期，全球半导体设备需求高景气；看好国内半导体设备板块 事件：阿斯麦2025年四季度订单132亿欧元大超预期，其中EUV订单74亿欧元，订单积压规模达388亿欧元。 订单高增长主要受益AI基础设施建设，北美科技巨头正投入数千亿美元建设数据中心。 同时阿斯麦启动120亿欧元股票回购计划，并计划将2025年全年股息提升17%。 阿斯 浙商机械【半导体设备】阿斯麦四季度订单大超预期，全球半导体设备需求高景气；看好国内半导体设备板块 事件：阿斯麦2025年四季度订单132亿欧元大超预期，其中EUV订单74亿欧元，订单积压规模达388亿欧元。 订单高增长主要受益AI基础设施建设，北美科技巨头正投入数千亿美元建设数据中心。 同时阿斯麦启动120亿欧元股票回购计划，并计划将2025年全年股息提升17%。 阿斯麦预计2026年净销售额将在340亿至390亿欧元之间，毛利率维持在51%至53%区间。 AI投资加速+先进制程迭代，半导体设备需求天花板持续上移 AI算力芯片对先进制程需求持续提升，Meta、微软等科技巨头千亿美元级数据中心投资，叠加台积电等晶圆厂先 进制程扩产，直接拉动EU ...

摩根士丹利| ASML控股 NV（欧洲）：财报前瞻 Into the print（财报前瞻） ASML将于本周晚些时候（1 月 28 日周三）发布财报。 我们预计其订单量表现强劲，且我们的核心逻辑将开始兑现。 市场讨论焦点集中在 2027 年，但我们认为订单量将从 2025 年第四季度延续至 2026 年实现扩张。 摩根士丹利| ASML控股 NV（欧洲）：财报前瞻 Into the print（财报前瞻） ASML将于本周晚些时候（1 月 28 日周三）发布财报。 我们预计其订单量表现强劲，且我们的核心逻辑将开始兑现。 市场讨论焦点集中在 2027 年，但我们认为订单量将从 2025 年第四季度延续至 2026 年实现扩张。 我们重申 "增持"评级（首选标的），并维持 1400 欧元的目标价。 核心要点 2027 年盈利增长有望达到峰值，预计将交付 80 台 EUV 设备。 投资者在财报前关注的关键指标包括：2025 年第四季度订单量、2026 年营收增长、毛利率、EUV 及 DUV 营收增 长。 风险提示：2027 年 EUV 设备的需求可能触及峰值。 英特尔本季度的业绩，印证了我们 2026 财年的预测 ...

荷兰光刻机巨头阿斯麦将于本周三(1月28日)发布财报。摩根士丹利预计该公司将公布强劲的订单数 据，而市场焦点正从2026年转向2027年，后者可能成为公司业绩爆发的关键年份。 分析师指出，近期与买方机构的交流显示，市场预期已升至约20台EUV和70亿欧元以上。 值得注意的是，这将是阿斯麦最后一次公布季度订单数据。从下个季度开始，公司将仅提供年度积压订 单更新，这使得本次财报的订单数据格外重要。 2026年指引：聚焦收入增长与毛利率稳定 对于2026年全年展望，摩根士丹利认为市场关注点集中在四个方面： 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利最新研报维持阿斯麦"增持"评级（Top Pick）和1,400欧元目标价。Lee Simpson分析师团队在报告中表示，预计阿斯麦第四季度订单将达到72.7亿欧元，包括19台EUV低数值 孔径设备，显著高于市场此前50亿欧元以上的预期。 对于指引，分析师团队强调，市场对2026年的温和增长叙事已基本消化，10%的收入增长指引就能让市 场满意，真正的投资机会在于2027年——阿斯麦业绩爆发的关键年份。 大摩预计，阿斯麦2027年EUV设备需求可能达到80台，推动营收达到467.69亿欧元，同 ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML's CEO, Christoph Wouters, emphasizes the challenges of balancing national security and industrial interests, particularly regarding export restrictions to China, which are shifting from "policy risks" to "order expectations" [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - ASML anticipates a significant decline in demand from China starting in 2026, with current sales to China accounting for over one-third of total sales [1] - The company links the weakening demand from China to the enhancement of local supply capabilities, raising concerns about its market share in China [1] - ASML's primary model for deliveries to China is DUV, while EUV export licenses have not been approved since 2019 due to ongoing pressure from the U.S. [1] Group 2: Leadership Perspectives - The shift in ASML's leadership perspective over the years reflects a transition from confidence to anxiety regarding China's technological advancements [4][6] - Former CEO Peter Wennink's statements evolved from dismissing China's capabilities to acknowledging the rapid pace of Chinese innovation and the potential disruption to global supply chains [5][6] Group 3: Industry Concerns - Other semiconductor equipment companies, such as Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron, share similar anxieties about losing the Chinese market, which constitutes a significant portion of their revenue [7] - The competitive landscape indicates that while China has not yet caught up in photolithography equipment, it is advancing rapidly in other segments of the semiconductor supply chain [8] Group 4: Impact of Technology Restrictions - The U.S. strategy of tightening technology restrictions has not achieved its intended effect, as China is accelerating its domestic production capabilities in response [9] - ASML's strategy of offering older technology models to China is seen as a buffer to mitigate the risk of losing the market entirely [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The perceived technological gap of "about ten years" between the West and China is increasingly questioned, as Chinese firms approach critical production milestones in DUV technology [12][13] - The future trajectory for ASML hinges on its ability to adapt to the rapidly changing competitive landscape in China, where local firms are gaining ground [14]

Key Points - ASML CEO emphasizes that China cannot accept being "choked" in technology and suggests that the West should maintain a level of dependency to prevent China's self-research from becoming competitive [2][3] - The technology gap between ASML's exports to China and the latest high-NA lithography technology is over ten years, with current exports being equivalent to products sold to Western clients in 2013-2014 [3] - The Chinese market is significant, and if the West tightens restrictions too much, it may push China to fully develop its own technologies, leading to a loss of market for Western companies [3] Domestic News - Moore Threads plans to use up to 7.5 billion yuan of idle fundraising for cash management, which has sparked discussions regarding the source of these funds [4] - The company clarified that the cash management amount is a ceiling and the actual amount will be significantly lower, ensuring that it does not affect the original project plans [4] - The National Market Supervision Administration has issued guidelines prohibiting selling cars at a loss, with several major car manufacturers, including BYD and Great Wall, expressing support for these regulations [6] - JD.com is recruiting talent in the edge AI chip sector, offering salaries ranging from 25,000 to 100,000 yuan per month, aiming to enhance its AI capabilities in consumer and home applications [7][8] Personnel Changes - Wang Junfeng, a key technical expert from Baidu's search algorithm team, has transitioned to Baidu Health, which is seen as a strategic move to strengthen the company's capabilities in health services [9] - Yunda's board of directors is undergoing a reshuffle, with a notable candidate being 24-year-old Nie Yipeng, the son of the company's actual controllers, indicating a strong family influence in the company's governance [19][20] Market Developments - Huawei's Mate 80 series has achieved sales of approximately 754,900 units, regaining the top market share in China, surpassing competitors like Apple [23][24] - The series has been well-received, with its pricing strategy and self-developed chip technology contributing to its success in the high-end market [23] Technology and Innovation - ByteDance's AI model "Doubao" has launched a mobile assistant, which has raised concerns regarding data security and competition, although the company has denied any wrongdoing [22] - SpaceX is reportedly preparing for an IPO, with an internal valuation of around $800 billion, aiming to raise over $30 billion for its ambitious space projects [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - ASML has established a technical academy in Phoenix, Arizona, aimed at training engineers to maintain and service its complex chip manufacturing equipment, supporting the rapid expansion of advanced chip production in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Facility and Training Goals - The new facility is located near Phoenix Airport and aims to train over 1,000 engineers annually [1] - The training is focused on supporting the U.S. advanced chip manufacturing capacity [1] Group 2: Equipment Complexity and Cost - ASML's DUV and EUV equipment complexity is comparable to that of F-35 fighter jets [1] - The most advanced EUV equipment costs approximately $400 million and requires multiple 747 cargo planes for transportation [1] Group 3: Recruitment Focus - ASML is particularly interested in hiring veterans with military aircraft maintenance backgrounds, considering them highly suitable for the roles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent export regulations from the Netherlands regarding deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography equipment have significant implications for the global semiconductor industry, particularly affecting China's access to advanced chip-making technology [1][2][4]. Group 1: Export Regulations and Impact - The Netherlands will raise the export threshold for DUV equipment from 7nm to 14nm by October 31, 2025, requiring licenses for mid-range models like 1970i and 1980i, with approval times extended to 90 days or more [1][2]. - The new regulations not only restrict equipment but also cover associated tools and software upgrades, effectively locking down the entire advanced manufacturing process [2][4]. - ASML, the leading lithography equipment manufacturer, is expected to see its revenue from the Chinese market drop from over 40% to below 25% by 2025 due to these restrictions [2][4]. Group 2: China's Response and Adaptation - In response to the restrictions, China's semiconductor industry is accelerating its self-sufficiency efforts, with a projected 20% increase in semiconductor equipment investment in 2025 [6][10]. - Domestic companies like Shanghai Micro Electronics are advancing DUV technology to cover 65nm and 28nm processes, with the introduction of the electron beam lithography machine "Xizhi" marking progress in quantum and early semiconductor tools [6][8]. - SMIC is adjusting its procurement strategy to reduce reliance on foreign DUV equipment, with domestic equipment now accounting for over 35% of its orders [8][10]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Future Outlook - The tightening of export controls reflects a broader geopolitical struggle, with the U.S. and its allies attempting to maintain technological dominance while China seeks to establish itself as a rule-maker in the semiconductor space [4][13]. - The semiconductor ecosystem is expected to undergo significant restructuring, with companies like ASML facing challenges as they navigate the new regulatory landscape [2][14]. - Despite the immediate impact of the Dutch regulations, the long-term outlook for China's semiconductor industry remains optimistic, with plans to triple production capacity by 2026 and significant investments in domestic EUV technology [10][14].

Core Insights - TSMC reported record-high sales of $33.1 billion and operating profit of $16.75 billion for Q3 2025, with an operating margin recovering to over 50% [1][3] - TSMC's wafer shipments reached a record 4.09 million in Q3 2025, indicating a V-shaped recovery from a low of 2.9 million in Q3 2023 [5][7] Financial Performance - TSMC's Q3 2025 sales of $33.1 billion positioned it as the second-largest semiconductor company, following NVIDIA's $46.7 billion [3][5] - The operating profit margin has rebounded from a previous low of around 40% to over 50% [1] Wafer Shipments - TSMC's wafer shipments peaked at 3.97 million in Q3 2022, fell to 2.9 million in Q3 2023, and then rose to 4.09 million in Q3 2025 [5][7] - The increase in wafer shipments is attributed to strong demand for advanced 3nm and 5nm nodes, while the 7nm process remains underutilized [7][19] Technology and Market Dynamics - TSMC's strong performance is driven by rapid growth in wafer input for 3nm and 5nm nodes, as Chinese semiconductor manufacturers shift focus to mature nodes due to U.S. restrictions [7][14] - The company has transitioned its core business from smartphone chips to artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) [21][24] Customer Base Evolution - TSMC's top customers have shifted from smartphone manufacturers to AI semiconductor companies, with NVIDIA expected to account for 22-25% of revenue by 2025, surpassing Apple [26][27] - The share of smartphone-related companies in TSMC's revenue has decreased significantly, indicating a structural shift in the customer base [27][28] Competitive Position - TSMC maintains a dominant position in the semiconductor industry, with over 157 EUV lithography machines, far exceeding competitors like Samsung and Intel [30][31] - The ability to supply advanced nodes has become a critical asset, likened to a new form of currency in the semiconductor market [33]