浙商机械【半导体设备】阿斯麦四季度订单大超预期，全球半导体设备需求高景气；看好国内半导体设备板块 事件：阿斯麦2025年四季度订单132亿欧元大超预期，其中EUV订单74亿欧元，订单积压规模达388亿欧元。 订单高增长主要受益AI基础设施建设，北美科技巨头正投入数千亿美元建设数据中心。 同时阿斯麦启动120亿欧元股票回购计划，并计划将2025年全年股息提升17%。 阿斯 浙商机械【半导体设备】阿斯麦四季度订单大超预期，全球半导体设备需求高景气；看好国内半导体设备板块 事件：阿斯麦2025年四季度订单132亿欧元大超预期，其中EUV订单74亿欧元，订单积压规模达388亿欧元。 订单高增长主要受益AI基础设施建设，北美科技巨头正投入数千亿美元建设数据中心。 同时阿斯麦启动120亿欧元股票回购计划，并计划将2025年全年股息提升17%。 阿斯麦预计2026年净销售额将在340亿至390亿欧元之间，毛利率维持在51%至53%区间。 AI投资加速+先进制程迭代，半导体设备需求天花板持续上移 AI算力芯片对先进制程需求持续提升，Meta、微软等科技巨头千亿美元级数据中心投资，叠加台积电等晶圆厂先 进制程扩产，直接拉动EU ...

摩根士丹利| ASML控股 NV（欧洲）：财报前瞻 Into the print（财报前瞻） ASML将于本周晚些时候（1 月 28 日周三）发布财报。 我们预计其订单量表现强劲，且我们的核心逻辑将开始兑现。 市场讨论焦点集中在 2027 年，但我们认为订单量将从 2025 年第四季度延续至 2026 年实现扩张。 摩根士丹利| ASML控股 NV（欧洲）：财报前瞻 Into the print（财报前瞻） ASML将于本周晚些时候（1 月 28 日周三）发布财报。 我们预计其订单量表现强劲，且我们的核心逻辑将开始兑现。 市场讨论焦点集中在 2027 年，但我们认为订单量将从 2025 年第四季度延续至 2026 年实现扩张。 我们重申 "增持"评级（首选标的），并维持 1400 欧元的目标价。 核心要点 2027 年盈利增长有望达到峰值，预计将交付 80 台 EUV 设备。 投资者在财报前关注的关键指标包括：2025 年第四季度订单量、2026 年营收增长、毛利率、EUV 及 DUV 营收增 长。 风险提示：2027 年 EUV 设备的需求可能触及峰值。 英特尔本季度的业绩，印证了我们 2026 财年的预测 ...

荷兰光刻机巨头阿斯麦将于本周三(1月28日)发布财报。摩根士丹利预计该公司将公布强劲的订单数 据，而市场焦点正从2026年转向2027年，后者可能成为公司业绩爆发的关键年份。 分析师指出，近期与买方机构的交流显示，市场预期已升至约20台EUV和70亿欧元以上。 值得注意的是，这将是阿斯麦最后一次公布季度订单数据。从下个季度开始，公司将仅提供年度积压订 单更新，这使得本次财报的订单数据格外重要。 2026年指引：聚焦收入增长与毛利率稳定 对于2026年全年展望，摩根士丹利认为市场关注点集中在四个方面： 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利最新研报维持阿斯麦"增持"评级（Top Pick）和1,400欧元目标价。Lee Simpson分析师团队在报告中表示，预计阿斯麦第四季度订单将达到72.7亿欧元，包括19台EUV低数值 孔径设备，显著高于市场此前50亿欧元以上的预期。 对于指引，分析师团队强调，市场对2026年的温和增长叙事已基本消化，10%的收入增长指引就能让市 场满意，真正的投资机会在于2027年——阿斯麦业绩爆发的关键年份。 大摩预计，阿斯麦2027年EUV设备需求可能达到80台，推动营收达到467.69亿欧元，同 ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML's CEO, Christoph Wouters, emphasizes the challenges of balancing national security and industrial interests, particularly regarding export restrictions to China, which are shifting from "policy risks" to "order expectations" [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - ASML anticipates a significant decline in demand from China starting in 2026, with current sales to China accounting for over one-third of total sales [1] - The company links the weakening demand from China to the enhancement of local supply capabilities, raising concerns about its market share in China [1] - ASML's primary model for deliveries to China is DUV, while EUV export licenses have not been approved since 2019 due to ongoing pressure from the U.S. [1] Group 2: Leadership Perspectives - The shift in ASML's leadership perspective over the years reflects a transition from confidence to anxiety regarding China's technological advancements [4][6] - Former CEO Peter Wennink's statements evolved from dismissing China's capabilities to acknowledging the rapid pace of Chinese innovation and the potential disruption to global supply chains [5][6] Group 3: Industry Concerns - Other semiconductor equipment companies, such as Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron, share similar anxieties about losing the Chinese market, which constitutes a significant portion of their revenue [7] - The competitive landscape indicates that while China has not yet caught up in photolithography equipment, it is advancing rapidly in other segments of the semiconductor supply chain [8] Group 4: Impact of Technology Restrictions - The U.S. strategy of tightening technology restrictions has not achieved its intended effect, as China is accelerating its domestic production capabilities in response [9] - ASML's strategy of offering older technology models to China is seen as a buffer to mitigate the risk of losing the market entirely [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The perceived technological gap of "about ten years" between the West and China is increasingly questioned, as Chinese firms approach critical production milestones in DUV technology [12][13] - The future trajectory for ASML hinges on its ability to adapt to the rapidly changing competitive landscape in China, where local firms are gaining ground [14]

Key Points - ASML CEO emphasizes that China cannot accept being "choked" in technology and suggests that the West should maintain a level of dependency to prevent China's self-research from becoming competitive [2][3] - The technology gap between ASML's exports to China and the latest high-NA lithography technology is over ten years, with current exports being equivalent to products sold to Western clients in 2013-2014 [3] - The Chinese market is significant, and if the West tightens restrictions too much, it may push China to fully develop its own technologies, leading to a loss of market for Western companies [3] Domestic News - Moore Threads plans to use up to 7.5 billion yuan of idle fundraising for cash management, which has sparked discussions regarding the source of these funds [4] - The company clarified that the cash management amount is a ceiling and the actual amount will be significantly lower, ensuring that it does not affect the original project plans [4] - The National Market Supervision Administration has issued guidelines prohibiting selling cars at a loss, with several major car manufacturers, including BYD and Great Wall, expressing support for these regulations [6] - JD.com is recruiting talent in the edge AI chip sector, offering salaries ranging from 25,000 to 100,000 yuan per month, aiming to enhance its AI capabilities in consumer and home applications [7][8] Personnel Changes - Wang Junfeng, a key technical expert from Baidu's search algorithm team, has transitioned to Baidu Health, which is seen as a strategic move to strengthen the company's capabilities in health services [9] - Yunda's board of directors is undergoing a reshuffle, with a notable candidate being 24-year-old Nie Yipeng, the son of the company's actual controllers, indicating a strong family influence in the company's governance [19][20] Market Developments - Huawei's Mate 80 series has achieved sales of approximately 754,900 units, regaining the top market share in China, surpassing competitors like Apple [23][24] - The series has been well-received, with its pricing strategy and self-developed chip technology contributing to its success in the high-end market [23] Technology and Innovation - ByteDance's AI model "Doubao" has launched a mobile assistant, which has raised concerns regarding data security and competition, although the company has denied any wrongdoing [22] - SpaceX is reportedly preparing for an IPO, with an internal valuation of around $800 billion, aiming to raise over $30 billion for its ambitious space projects [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - ASML has established a technical academy in Phoenix, Arizona, aimed at training engineers to maintain and service its complex chip manufacturing equipment, supporting the rapid expansion of advanced chip production in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Facility and Training Goals - The new facility is located near Phoenix Airport and aims to train over 1,000 engineers annually [1] - The training is focused on supporting the U.S. advanced chip manufacturing capacity [1] Group 2: Equipment Complexity and Cost - ASML's DUV and EUV equipment complexity is comparable to that of F-35 fighter jets [1] - The most advanced EUV equipment costs approximately $400 million and requires multiple 747 cargo planes for transportation [1] Group 3: Recruitment Focus - ASML is particularly interested in hiring veterans with military aircraft maintenance backgrounds, considering them highly suitable for the roles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent export regulations from the Netherlands regarding deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography equipment have significant implications for the global semiconductor industry, particularly affecting China's access to advanced chip-making technology [1][2][4]. Group 1: Export Regulations and Impact - The Netherlands will raise the export threshold for DUV equipment from 7nm to 14nm by October 31, 2025, requiring licenses for mid-range models like 1970i and 1980i, with approval times extended to 90 days or more [1][2]. - The new regulations not only restrict equipment but also cover associated tools and software upgrades, effectively locking down the entire advanced manufacturing process [2][4]. - ASML, the leading lithography equipment manufacturer, is expected to see its revenue from the Chinese market drop from over 40% to below 25% by 2025 due to these restrictions [2][4]. Group 2: China's Response and Adaptation - In response to the restrictions, China's semiconductor industry is accelerating its self-sufficiency efforts, with a projected 20% increase in semiconductor equipment investment in 2025 [6][10]. - Domestic companies like Shanghai Micro Electronics are advancing DUV technology to cover 65nm and 28nm processes, with the introduction of the electron beam lithography machine "Xizhi" marking progress in quantum and early semiconductor tools [6][8]. - SMIC is adjusting its procurement strategy to reduce reliance on foreign DUV equipment, with domestic equipment now accounting for over 35% of its orders [8][10]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Future Outlook - The tightening of export controls reflects a broader geopolitical struggle, with the U.S. and its allies attempting to maintain technological dominance while China seeks to establish itself as a rule-maker in the semiconductor space [4][13]. - The semiconductor ecosystem is expected to undergo significant restructuring, with companies like ASML facing challenges as they navigate the new regulatory landscape [2][14]. - Despite the immediate impact of the Dutch regulations, the long-term outlook for China's semiconductor industry remains optimistic, with plans to triple production capacity by 2026 and significant investments in domestic EUV technology [10][14].

Core Insights - TSMC reported record-high sales of $33.1 billion and operating profit of $16.75 billion for Q3 2025, with an operating margin recovering to over 50% [1][3] - TSMC's wafer shipments reached a record 4.09 million in Q3 2025, indicating a V-shaped recovery from a low of 2.9 million in Q3 2023 [5][7] Financial Performance - TSMC's Q3 2025 sales of $33.1 billion positioned it as the second-largest semiconductor company, following NVIDIA's $46.7 billion [3][5] - The operating profit margin has rebounded from a previous low of around 40% to over 50% [1] Wafer Shipments - TSMC's wafer shipments peaked at 3.97 million in Q3 2022, fell to 2.9 million in Q3 2023, and then rose to 4.09 million in Q3 2025 [5][7] - The increase in wafer shipments is attributed to strong demand for advanced 3nm and 5nm nodes, while the 7nm process remains underutilized [7][19] Technology and Market Dynamics - TSMC's strong performance is driven by rapid growth in wafer input for 3nm and 5nm nodes, as Chinese semiconductor manufacturers shift focus to mature nodes due to U.S. restrictions [7][14] - The company has transitioned its core business from smartphone chips to artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) [21][24] Customer Base Evolution - TSMC's top customers have shifted from smartphone manufacturers to AI semiconductor companies, with NVIDIA expected to account for 22-25% of revenue by 2025, surpassing Apple [26][27] - The share of smartphone-related companies in TSMC's revenue has decreased significantly, indicating a structural shift in the customer base [27][28] Competitive Position - TSMC maintains a dominant position in the semiconductor industry, with over 157 EUV lithography machines, far exceeding competitors like Samsung and Intel [30][31] - The ability to supply advanced nodes has become a critical asset, likened to a new form of currency in the semiconductor market [33]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of semiconductors, highlighting Taiwan's critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain, particularly through TSMC's dominance in chip manufacturing [2][3]. Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - A semiconductor world war is emerging among Taiwan, South Korea, the US, Japan, and mainland China, with TSMC's management transition raising concerns about its responsiveness to smaller client demands, potentially benefiting Japan's Rapidus [2][6]. - Japan's semiconductor revival is driven by a 2020 semiconductor shortage, leading to government-led initiatives after years of reliance on imports [3][4]. - TSMC's cost advantages stem from a balanced approach to automation, selectively automating profitable processes while retaining manual labor where cost-effective, unlike Japan's previous all-or-nothing automation attempts [3][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - TSMC has become the most automated semiconductor company globally, carefully timing its investments in cutting-edge technology, such as EUV lithography equipment, which can cost hundreds of billions of yen [4]. - The article notes that while South Korean manufacturers also focus on cost control, Japan's corporate culture often hinders frontline decision-making, impacting competitiveness [4][5]. - The US faces challenges in revitalizing its semiconductor industry due to high labor costs and immigration restrictions limiting the influx of skilled engineers [4][5]. Group 3: China's Semiconductor Aspirations - China is making significant strides in its semiconductor industry, with government support aimed at reducing reliance on foreign technology, with predictions suggesting it could lead the sector by 2050 [5][6]. - Despite US regulations prohibiting the sale of advanced semiconductor equipment to China, these measures are expected to slow but not halt China's semiconductor development [5][6]. - The article highlights that possessing manufacturing equipment alone is insufficient for success; technical know-how is crucial, as evidenced by Intel and Samsung's struggles to match TSMC's yield rates despite having similar equipment [5][6]. Group 4: Future of Japan's Semiconductor Industry - Japan's success in the semiconductor sector hinges on attracting buyers, as competing directly with giants like TSMC and Samsung is deemed impractical [6]. - The generational shift in TSMC's management may lead to a less accommodating approach to smaller demands, presenting an opportunity for Rapidus to fill the gap if it can secure Japanese clients [6]. - The article concludes that without collaboration among Japanese companies, Rapidus's efforts may be futile, emphasizing the need for unity in the industry [6].

Group 1: Nvidia's Challenges - Nvidia's CEO expressed deep regret over the company's forced exit from the Chinese market, noting a drop in market share from 95% to 0% in AI chips [3][4] - The revenue from Nvidia's Chinese market for Q2 2026 was $2.769 billion, a decrease of nearly $900 million compared to the same period in 2025 [4] - The company faces increasing competition from domestic Chinese firms, particularly from Cambrian, which reported a 1332.52% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025 [4][6] Group 2: ASML's Market Position - ASML reported that its sales in the Chinese market accounted for 42% of total sales, a record high, but the CEO anticipates a significant decline in 2026 [5][6] - ASML's reliance on DUV lithography machines, which contribute 70% of its revenue in China, poses a risk due to U.S. export restrictions [6][7] - The company's market share for DUV machines in China has decreased from 85% in 2022 to 52% in 2025, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [7] Group 3: Ansys China's Resistance - Ansys Semiconductor, a subsidiary of Wintech Technology, is facing severe repercussions from U.S. export controls, with the Dutch government freezing its assets and operations [8][9] - Wintech Technology has publicly condemned the Dutch government's actions and is pursuing legal recourse, emphasizing its commitment to operate within Chinese laws [9][10] - Ansys China's production capacity accounts for 70% of the entire group's output, showcasing its strong localization capabilities [10]