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日元贬值与日股大涨
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【光大研究每日速递】20260121
光大证券研究· 2026-01-20 23:06
Group 1 - The depreciation of the Japanese yen is attributed to the limited sustainability of the narrowing US-Japan interest rate differential, imbalances in the international balance of payments, and uncertainties in the recovery of the Japanese economy [5] - The rise in the Japanese stock market is influenced by a new round of fiscal expansion, inflation driving corporate profit recovery, and the global AI expansion cycle [5] - The divergence between the yen's depreciation and the stock market's rise reflects differentiated pricing of structural contradictions in the Japanese economy by different asset classes [5] Group 2 - Economic data for the first quarter of 2026 is expected to show a rebound due to the early implementation of various investment stabilization policies, strong performance of export and infrastructure leading indicators, and the advance issuance of funds for "old-for-new" programs [5] - As of the end of December 2025, the total bond custody amount at China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Clearing House reached 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan month-on-month [5] - The bond market saw an increase in holdings across most institutions, except for credit cooperatives which reduced their bond holdings [5]