点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 核心观点： 此前债市担忧的三大利空已部分消化，实际影响低于市场预期。但考虑到政策脉冲向上，经济和股市迎 来"开门红"，可能对债市情绪构成持续打压。有利因素也不可忽视，政府债供给期限对利率走势无强解释 力，且除500亿元国债买入信号外，央行有意愿也有能力呵护流动性。债市整体前景并不悲观，策略上当 前应重视配置，交易性机会需耐心等待。 债市三大扰动因素淡化 开年以来，相较于股市、商品等大类资产价格的剧烈波动，国内债市显得较为平静。主因此前三大扰动因 素有所淡化：公募基金销售新规带来的潜在赎回压力、跨年资金面的波动、超长债供给的冲击，前两者已 落地且实际利空程度低于预期；而近期30年期国债利率的上行，也对超长债供给冲击进行了适度反应 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 平稳收官，价格修复或加快 ——12 月经济数据预测 风险提示：稳增长政策效果超预期。 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：靳晓航 电话：010-66500819 邮箱：jinxiaohang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080003 证券分析师：许洪波 电话：010-66500905 邮箱：xuhongbo@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090004 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】转债市场日度跟踪 20260105》 2026-01-05 《【华创固收】宽信用扰动与费率新规落地，收益 率先上后下——利率债市场周度复盘》 2026-01-04 《【华创固收】转债市场日度跟踪 20251231》 2026-01-04 《【华创固收】基金费率新规落地，比较及影响》 2026-01-03 《【华创固收】多因素叠 ...

2026 年 1 月 7 日 总量研究 债市开年如何破局？ ——《央行观察》系列第十三篇 ③超长期限政府债供给节奏如何？一方面，从过往经验来看，发行期限的变化对 10 年、30 年期国债利率变动的解释力不强；另一方面，在政府债总增量可控的 前提下，供给的影响更似若干小脉冲。 ④配置盘的承接意愿有多强？央行货币政策对于政府债供给的"配合"毋庸置疑， 流动性环境将维持"支持性"；对机构会否增加超长期债券配置亦可乐观看待。 要点 核心观点：此前债市担忧的三大利空已部分消化，实际影响低于市场预期。但考 虑到政策脉冲向上，经济和股市迎来"开门红"，可能对债市情绪构成持续打压。 有利因素也不可忽视，政府债供给期限对利率走势无强解释力，且除 500 亿元 国债买入信号外，央行有意愿也有能力呵护流动性。债市整体前景并不悲观，策 略上当前应重视配置，交易性机会需耐心等待。 债市三大扰动因素淡化。开年以来，相较于股市、商品等大类资产价格的剧烈波 动，国内债市显得较为平静。主因此前三大扰动因素有所淡化：公募基金销售新 规带来的潜在赎回压力、跨年资金面的波动、超长债供给的冲击，前两者已落地 且实际利空程度低于预期；而近期 30 年期 ...

宏观点评 20260106 每周宏观经济和资产配置研判—20260106 2026 年 01 月 06 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 国内宏观观点： 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 ◼ 海外宏观观点：开门红行情的三个线索 ◼ 权益市场观点： ◼ 债券市场观点： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《从宏微观维度观测市场节奏》 2026-01-05 《恒生科技 ETF， 2025 年 12 月复盘 及 2026 年 1 月展望》 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ➢ 年底政策集中出台，经济预期有所回升。近期系列政策陆续落地，投资 端"止跌回稳"政策见效，四季度的"两个五千亿"落地后，12 月建筑 业 PMI 环比回升 3.2 个点至 52.8%；消费方面"以旧换新"第一批资金 提前拨付；受此影响，代表经济景气度的 12 月制造业 PMI 环比回升 0.9 个点至 50.1%，远超季节性，也是去年 3 月以来首次回到 50%荣枯线上。 ➢ 我们预计 2025 全年经济增速在 5%左右，2026 一季度经济开门红 ...

主动"走出去"拓市场，让勤美达的产品版图不断扩大。近年来，企业先后北上北京参加中国国际环卫与市政设施及清洗设 备展览会，南下广东参加广交会，还亮相上海国际清洁技术与设备博览会，借助展会平台精准对接客户需求。"去年12月 的广交会上，我们一下子对接了近300家潜在客户，不少国内各地的订单都是这么谈下来的。"彭崇新说，通过持续开拓， 企业产品已覆盖国内多个省份，形成了稳定的市场网络。 齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点周千清通讯员崔如坤 岁末年初，鲁西南寒意正浓，但郓城县张营街道环卫车产业园内却热潮涌动。一座座车间里机器运转不停，工人们铆足干 劲组装、调试各类环卫设备，订单排期满满当当。当地环卫设备企业聚焦新产品研发与新市场开拓，以产销两旺的强劲势 头，全力冲刺新年经济"开门红"。 1月4日下午，张营街道环卫车产业园B区的山东勤美达环保科技公司车间内，25名工人正围着生产线紧锣密鼓地组装新能 源高压冲洗车。操作台上，零部件整齐码放，工人们分工明确，有的安装高压水枪，有的调试电路系统，每一个环节都有 条不紊。 "这批是发往江苏淮安的订单，客户一下子订了90台新能源高压冲洗车，目前已经完成10余台，我们正开足马力赶工期， 确保10天 ...

Economic Performance - In the first two months, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.7%, and fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 12.2%, indicating a strong start for the Chinese economy in 2023 [1][2] - The manufacturing investment surged by 20.9%, supported by factors such as industrial base reconstruction, supply chain strengthening, technological upgrades, and high export demand [2] - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 14.4%, and high-tech manufacturing investment rose by 42.7%, significantly outpacing overall manufacturing growth [3] Policy and Economic Outlook - The government will continue to implement stable growth policies, focusing on industrial stability and service sector relief, despite facing complex external challenges [1][4] - The economic recovery remains uneven, with pressures on small and micro enterprises and rising costs for businesses, necessitating ongoing support measures [4][5] - The overall economic operation is expected to maintain a stable development trend, with a target of achieving a 5.5% growth rate for the year deemed achievable [7][8] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to play a significant role in driving macroeconomic growth, with expectations of increased investment efforts compared to 2021 [8] - The government aims to expand effective investment, optimize investment structure, and encourage private investment to support sustained economic development [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China's economy achieved a "good start" in Q1 2025, with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year, supported by macro policies [1] - The report highlights three main drivers of economic performance: proactive fiscal policy with special bonds boosting infrastructure investment, a continuous rise in PMI with the construction sector reaching a 9-month high, and financial data exceeding expectations with M2, RMB loans, and social financing growth rates surpassing nominal GDP growth [1] - The report identifies two major contradictions: insufficient demand leading to a decline in prices, with Q1 CPI down 0.1% and PPI still in negative growth, and uncertainties in future exports despite a 6.9% growth in Q1 exports [1] Group 2 - In response to the complex economic situation, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences proposed targeted strategies, including accelerating the issuance of special bonds and suggesting an additional 2-3 trillion yuan in special bonds to stimulate the economy [2] - For consumption stimulation, short-term measures include issuing consumption vouchers and developing a comprehensive policy to support service consumption, while mid-term focus is on enhancing the vitality of the private economy and long-term strategies involve revitalizing existing assets to support sustainable consumption growth [2] - To stabilize the market, recommendations include developing a "dual rental and purchase" model in the housing market, introducing long-term funds to stabilize the stock market, maintaining a reasonable range for RMB exchange rates, and providing financial support for foreign trade enterprises to explore new markets and assist struggling companies with tax reductions [2]

Economic Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with production, consumption, and investment data exceeding market expectations [1] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - Social retail sales rose by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1, with a notable increase of 5.9% in March [1] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.2% year-on-year in Q1, with manufacturing investment up by 9.1% and infrastructure investment up by 11.5% [1] Export and Domestic Demand - Q1 exports remained resilient, with net export levels reaching new highs, supported by a "rush to export" factor [2] - The positive economic performance in Q1 was attributed to the release of domestic demand and the effects of previous policy measures [2] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy launched in early 2025 allocated 300 billion yuan to support consumer goods replacement, significantly up from 150 billion yuan in 2024 [2] Manufacturing and Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.1% in March, supported by equipment upgrading policies [3] - High-tech industry investments grew by 6.5%, with significant increases in information services, aerospace manufacturing, and computer equipment sectors [3] - Local government debt resolution efforts have positively impacted economic growth, particularly in major economic provinces [3] Overall Economic Outlook - Despite external uncertainties, China's large economic scale and domestic market provide significant resilience and flexibility [4] - The effectiveness of previous growth stabilization policies has contributed to a strong economic performance in Q1 2025 [4] - The focus on domestic stability in response to international uncertainties is seen as a unique advantage for China's economic growth [4]