Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Free Trade Zone has introduced two policy documents aimed at ensuring a strong economic start in the first quarter of 2026, focusing on investment, consumption, and production to boost enterprise confidence and stimulate economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The policy framework includes 5 major areas and 18 specific measures, covering project commencement rewards, foreign investment incentives, exhibition subsidies, and support for enterprise stability and expansion [1][2]. - The "Measures for Promoting Economic 'Opening Red' in the First Quarter of 2026" emphasizes short-term incentives while planning for long-term development, with specific policies to encourage effective investment, boost consumption, and stabilize production [2][3]. - For new social projects that commence in the first quarter of 2026, a reward of up to 300,000 yuan will be provided based on investment completion [2]. Group 2: Talent Attraction and Entrepreneurship - The "Ten Measures for Talent Attraction and Entrepreneurship" introduces 10 comprehensive service initiatives focusing on creating an ecosystem for talent recruitment, entrepreneurship, and growth [3]. - Innovative services such as "housing rental support for talents," "Free Trade Elite Card," and "entrepreneurship insurance subsidies" are designed to address housing concerns and startup challenges for new talents and enterprises [3]. - Small and micro enterprises that hire a significant proportion of key groups can apply for up to 4 million yuan in financial support, with a subsidy interest rate of 50% [3].

2月11日，三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，上证指数涨0.09%，深证成指跌0.35%，创业板指 跌1.08%。资金活跃度降低，沪深两市成交额跌破2万亿，较上一个交易日缩量1213亿元。 距离2026年农历春节休市安排仅剩下2个交易日，持股，还是持币？多数机构对"史上超长九 天春节假期"给出持股过节建议。 对于节后A股行情，私募排排网调查问卷结果显示，69.23%的私募持乐观态度，认为春节前市场整固较 为充分，节后A股有望企稳向上，重启升势；21.15%的私募持中性态度，认为市场多空因素交织，节后 指数仍有整固需求，重点关注结构性机会；9.62%的私募持谨慎态度，认为市场结构性估值泡沫仍偏 多，节后市场主要股指和个股赚钱效应可能回落。 天风证券分析认为，今年的春季行情可能会强化。无论是"十五五"开局之年的政策预期、全球流动性宽 松前景，还是居民资金向权益资产配置的趋势，都可能强化节后市场上涨的可能，今年的春节行情或更 持续。况且，今年受"史上超长九天春节假期"的影响，消费需求释放明显早于往年，出行与消费规模有 望再突破，市场对经济"开门红"的预期或更稳定。 中国银河证券表示，春节假期后，随着政策窗口开启、风险偏好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a sustained "Spring Festival rally" in the stock market, driven by policy expectations, global liquidity conditions, and a trend of residents allocating funds to equity assets [3][7]. Industry Insights - The top three industries for net capital inflow are Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, Textiles and Apparel, and Information Technology [3][7]. - The "Spring Festival rally" is expected to be more pronounced this year due to the impact of an unusually long nine-day holiday, which is anticipated to lead to an earlier release of consumer demand and a significant increase in travel and consumption [3][7]. Market Trends - There is a strong expectation for a stable "economic opening red" as consumer demand is projected to break previous records, influenced by the extended holiday period [3][7].

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Precious Metals High Volatility Continues, Stock Index Trends Diverge - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20260205" [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to have limited impact on the market. The market views him as a hawkish figure, but it's difficult for him to implement the policy of shrinking the balance sheet. There are resistances for significant hawkish or dovish turns. Attention should be paid to the Iran-US situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The positive policy expectation remains the macro main - line. There is a growing expectation that policies in the first quarter will boost the economy to achieve a "good start" in the 15th Five - Year Plan. The policy environment is favorable. In January, both fiscal and monetary policies were proactive, and the economy showed overall stability with strong exports [9]. - Asset views: Emphasize the structural opportunities of portfolio allocation. Recommend over - allocating IC and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectation, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectation support the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities. Precious metals have high short - term volatility and are recommended to be observed. Non - ferrous metals are relatively advantageous, and black commodities are volatile. Crude oil has high uncertainties [9]. 4. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Market Data 4.1.1 Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - Index futures: The prices and various period - on - period changes of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures are presented. For example, the CSI 300 futures price was 4693.6, with a daily increase of 0.2%, a weekly decrease of 0.37%, etc. [2]. - Treasury bonds: Information on 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures is given, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.398, with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2]. 4.1.2 Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates - Foreign exchange: The dollar index was 97.3872, with a daily decrease of 0.23%, and the dollar intermediate price was 6.9385, with a decrease of 68 pips [2]. - Interest rates: Data on various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank deposit - based pledge rate, 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield, 10Y US treasury bond yield, etc., and their changes are provided [2]. 4.1.3 Industry Index - The prices and various period - on - period changes of different industries are shown, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, etc. For example, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index was 5718.7165, with a daily increase of 1.39% [3]. 4.1.4 Domestic and Overseas Commodities - Domestic commodities: Information on various domestic commodities such as shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products is presented, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the gold price was 1143.37, with a daily increase of 4.39% [4]. - Overseas commodities: Data on overseas energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products are provided, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 63.9, with a daily increase of 2.83% [6]. 4.2 Viewpoints on Different Asset Classes 4.2.1 Financial Assets - Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with the trend stabilizing and style complementing gains [10]. - Stock index options are expected to be volatile, with implied volatility continuing to decline and selling options to increase income [10]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile, as they fell across the board, and factors such as the implementation of monetary policies need to be concerned [10]. 4.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be volatile, as geopolitical conflicts have eased and the "Warsh trade" suppresses liquidity expectations [10]. 4.2.3 Shipping - The container shipping to Europe line is expected to be volatile, as spot freight rates are under pressure and shipping companies are reducing prices to attract cargo before the festival [10]. 4.2.4 Black Commodities - Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and supply and demand [10]. 4.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, etc. are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others like zinc, lead, etc. are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply and demand, and policies [10]. 4.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply pressure, demand, and geopolitical situations. Styrene is expected to rise in a volatile manner [12]. 4.2.7 Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors. For example, cotton is expected to rise in a volatile manner, while sugar is expected to decline in a volatile manner [12].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 大类资产总体反弹，能源化工小幅回落 ——中信期货晨报20260204 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 | 2026-02-03 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 年度涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 炉深300期货 | 4653 | 1.25 | -1. 23 | -1.23 | 1.16 | 1.16 | | | 上证50期货 | 3033 | 0. 8 | -1.33 | -1.33 | 0.26 | 0. 26 | | | 中证500期货 | 8282 | 3.71 | -0.96 | -0. 96 | 12. 48 | 12. 48 | | | 中证1000期货 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the "Spring Rally" may have a more solid foundation this year due to policy expectations, global liquidity easing prospects, and the trend of residents allocating funds to equity assets [1] - The consumption and travel market is expected to see an earlier and enhanced demand release this year, influenced by the "historically long nine-day Spring Festival holiday," leading to a potential breakthrough in consumption and travel scale [1] - The bond market may experience a range-bound fluctuation, as the central bank announced a structural interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points in January, suggesting a reduced necessity for overall interest rate cuts in the short term [1]

Group 1: Macro Policy Insights - The report emphasizes that recent policies are focused on stimulating domestic demand to achieve a strong start in 2026, highlighting six key areas of focus [4] - It notes that the early issuance of "two new" policies, a comprehensive fiscal and financial package, and continued support for the real estate sector indicate proactive policy measures aimed at economic growth [4] - Key short-term focuses include monitoring local GDP and CPI targets, the pace of fiscal stimulus, and the performance of real estate, exports, and infrastructure in the first quarter [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report identifies the top-performing industries in January, with oil and petrochemicals leading at 11.3%, followed by media at 10.8%, and non-ferrous metals at 10.4% [2] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors include banking at -6.2%, non-bank financials at -5.0%, and agriculture at -3.7% [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for February, including China Aluminum, which is noted for its strong position in the electrolytic aluminum market, and Gree, which is expected to benefit from global household storage growth [6] - Other recommended stocks include Tonghuashun, Haiguang Information, and China Duty Free, each with specific growth drivers outlined [6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - In the environmental sector, the report highlights new policies that promote industrial waste recycling and carbon emission evaluations, benefiting companies like Huicheng Environmental [14] - The agricultural sector is advised to monitor the impact of rising crude oil prices on production costs and demand, particularly for vegetable oils and rubber [16] - In the telecommunications sector, companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are projected to see significant profit growth due to increased demand for high-speed products and ongoing investments in infrastructure [19][22]

锚定市场主体发展需求，措施明确对倍增企业一季度规模与效益发展情况开展综合评价，分档给予最高 50万元奖励，助力企业开好局、起好步。用工保障方面，东莞沿用正月期间（2月17日至3月18日）企业 用工激励政策，对招用初次来莞就业的非莞籍人员，且签订劳动合同并依法连续参加养老保险、工伤保 险和失业保险满6个月的企业，按最高30万元标准发放新增就业补贴。此外，东莞还将举办超150场网络 招聘会、跨省劳务协作招聘会、"春风行动"现场招聘会等活动，开展"点对点"返岗专车/专列服务，全 方位保障企业用工需求。 1月27日，东莞出台《关于奋力实现一季度经济"开门红"的若干措施》（下称"措施"），推出"支持企业 稳产增产""千方百计扩投资""全面保障用工需求""多措并举拓市场"等9条措施，通过统筹安排1.5亿元资 金促消费、企业正月招工最高可获30万元补贴等多元化支持方式，持续提振市场信心、稳定发展预期、 扩大有效投资、激发消费活力，为建设"智创优品，和美宜居"现代化新东莞注入新春动能。 ...

需求端三驾马车中，哪些因素可能支撑 2026 年一季度的经济表现？ 经济和市场会有开门红吗？20260127 摘要 预计 2026 年一季度实际 GDP 增速约为 5%左右，名义 GDP 增速约为 4.5%，GDP 平减指数为负 0.6%，较上一季度有所收窄，经济下行趋 势或将逆转。 投资是 2026 年一季度经济增长的关键驱动力，预计固定资产投资增速 将大幅回升，受益于政策支持和"十五"规划重大项目的前置。 预计 2026 年一季度消费将有所回升，商品消费增速预计提升至 3%- 4%，服务消费受益于春节效应和以旧换新补贴政策的推动。 当前货币政策强调高效灵活，降息降准概率较低，主要通过调整利率变 化速度来稳定汇率波动，除非二月数据超预期，否则短期内新增货币政 策工具可能性不大。 人民币汇率近期升值，央行主要通过调控节奏和波动率来稳定人民币兑 美元汇率，而非直接干预汇率方向。 2026 年财政政策预计更注重结构性调整，狭义赤字率维持在 4.0%左右， 广义赤字率可能下降，资金更多向科技创新和现代化产业体系倾斜。 2026 年资本市场前景乐观，股票最具潜力，关注 PPI 回升对企业盈利 的支撑，看好科技板块（人 ...

转自：成都日报锦观 会议强调，要做到方位准，准确把握当前经济形势，清醒认识面临的机遇挑战，把准方向路径，坚定信 心决心，锚定目标任务，扛牢"经济大市挑大梁"责任担当。要做到底数清，认真梳理当前经济发展中的 难点、困难和短板，找到着力重点，抢抓中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债等政策窗口，全力争取并用 好各级政策，充分发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，进一步强化资源要素保障，打好高质量发展"组 合拳"。要做到工作实，抢抓消费，用好以旧换新等支持政策，抢抓重要消费节点，持续创造消费热 点，提前做好谋划，统筹办好新春促消费活动，激发消费活力；加快投资，全力推动项目早开工、快建 设，做好项目谋划储备，抓好项目拉练，用好项目调度平台，推动在建项目尽快竣工投产；优化企业服 务，持续开展"进解优促"工作，助企纾困解难，做好稳岗留工、复工复产等工作；强化调度，坚持"以 周保月、以月保季、以季保年"，重点工作每周调度、重大问题实时调度。要做到责任明，压紧压实工 作责任，牢固树立正确政绩观，强化激励约束机制，守牢安全生产、生态环境、耕地保护等红线底线。 会议听取了一季度经济"开门红"总体谋划、存在的困难问题和针对性工作建议；市级有关部 ...