2026 年 2 月 26 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【债券】商业银行大幅增持，非法人类产品持续减持——2026 年 1 月份债券托管量 数据点评 截至 2026 年 1 月末，中债登和上清所的债券托管量合计为 179.31 万亿元，环比净 增 0.76 万亿元，较 2025 年 12 月末环比多增 0.46 万亿元。分品种看托管总量，利率 债、信用债环比净增，金融债、同业存单环比净减。从本月债市各机构对主要券种的 持仓总量来看，配置盘均表现为增配；交易盘中证券公司增配、非法人类产品持续减 配；境外机构持续减配。 行业研究 【房地产】1 月核心 15 城二手房成交面积同比+14%——光大核心城市房地产销售跟 踪（2026 年 1 月）(增持) 1 月光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交金额为 1,859 亿元，同比-28.7%，成交 均价为 24,285 元/㎡，同比-4.8%。核心 15 城二手房成交面积同比+14.3%，一线城 市成交均价同比-9.8%。2026 开年《求是》集中刊文，明确改善和稳定房地产预期， 随着供给侧逐步出清，优质龙头受益于竞争结构优化，有望实现经营业绩企稳 ...

Group 1 - The total amount of bonds under custody increased slightly, reaching 178.55 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan compared to the previous month, but a decrease of 1.18 trillion yuan compared to November [8] - By type, the custody of interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds saw a net increase, while the amount of interbank certificates of deposit decreased [8] - The custody of interest rate bonds was 124.63 trillion yuan, accounting for 69.80% of the total, with a net increase of 0.69 trillion yuan; credit bonds reached 19.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.73%, with a net increase of 0.02 trillion yuan; financial bonds totaled 12.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.24%, with a net increase of 0.13 trillion yuan; interbank certificates of deposit stood at 19.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.03%, with a net decrease of 0.62 trillion yuan [8] Group 2 - The structure of bondholders showed that most institutions increased their bond holdings, except for credit cooperatives which reduced their positions; policy banks increased their holdings of interest rate bonds, interbank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds [9] - Commercial banks and securities companies increased their holdings of interest rate bonds while reducing their positions in interbank certificates of deposit and credit bonds [9] - The custody of government bonds continued to increase, with policy banks and commercial banks consistently adding to their holdings, while non-legal person products reduced their positions [9] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the bond market increased, with the estimated balance of repurchase agreements reaching 11.91 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, an increase of 859.04 billion yuan, resulting in a leverage ratio of 107.14%, which is an increase of 0.54 percentage points compared to the previous month [10] - The year-on-year comparison shows a decrease of 1.10 percentage points in the leverage ratio [10]

Group 1 - The depreciation of the Japanese yen is attributed to the limited sustainability of the narrowing US-Japan interest rate differential, imbalances in the international balance of payments, and uncertainties in the recovery of the Japanese economy [5] - The rise in the Japanese stock market is influenced by a new round of fiscal expansion, inflation driving corporate profit recovery, and the global AI expansion cycle [5] - The divergence between the yen's depreciation and the stock market's rise reflects differentiated pricing of structural contradictions in the Japanese economy by different asset classes [5] Group 2 - Economic data for the first quarter of 2026 is expected to show a rebound due to the early implementation of various investment stabilization policies, strong performance of export and infrastructure leading indicators, and the advance issuance of funds for "old-for-new" programs [5] - As of the end of December 2025, the total bond custody amount at China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Clearing House reached 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan month-on-month [5] - The bond market saw an increase in holdings across most institutions, except for credit cooperatives which reduced their bond holdings [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total bond custody increased less on a month - on - month basis. In December 2025, the total bond custody of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House was 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan compared to the previous month, and 1.18 trillion yuan less than the month - on - month increase in November [1][11]. - In terms of the bond holder structure, among the allocation portfolios, except for credit cooperatives, all institutions increased their bond holdings; trading portfolios and overseas institutions decreased their bond holdings. Different institutions showed different trends in holding various types of bonds [2][26]. - The balance of bonds to be repurchased increased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio rose on a month - on - month basis. As of the end of December 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style repurchase of bonds to be repurchased was 11.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 859.04 billion yuan compared to the previous month. The leverage ratio was 107.14%, up 0.54 percentage points month - on - month and down 1.10 percentage points year - on - year [4][47]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased less on a month - on - month basis. As of the end of December 2025, the total bond custody of CCDC and Shanghai Clearing House was 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan compared to the previous month, and 1.18 trillion yuan less than the month - on - month increase in November [1][11]. - By variety, interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased on a net basis month - on - month, while negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) decreased on a net basis. In December 2025, the custody of interest - rate bonds was 124.63 trillion yuan, accounting for 69.80% of the inter - bank bond market custody, with a net increase of 0.69 trillion yuan; the custody of credit bonds was 19.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.73%, with a net increase of 0.02 trillion yuan; the custody of non - policy financial bonds was 12.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.24%, with a net increase of 0.13 trillion yuan; the custody of NCDs was 19.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.03%, with a net decrease of 0.62 trillion yuan [1][11]. 3.2 Bond Holder Structure and Changes 3.2.1 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody by Institution - Among the allocation portfolios, except for credit cooperatives, all institutions increased their bond holdings; trading portfolios and overseas institutions decreased their bond holdings. Specifically, policy banks increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, NCDs, and credit bonds across the board; commercial banks and securities companies increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds but decreased their holdings of NCDs and credit bonds; non - legal person products increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds but decreased their holdings of NCDs; credit cooperatives and overseas institutions decreased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, NCDs, and credit bonds across the board [2][26]. 3.2.2 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody by Bond Type - The custody of treasury bonds continued to increase on a month - on - month basis. Policy banks and commercial banks continued to increase their holdings, while non - legal person products continued to decrease their holdings. - The custody of local government bonds continued to increase on a month - on - month basis, and all major institutions in the bond market increased their holdings. - The custody of policy - based financial bonds continued to increase on a month - on - month basis. Commercial banks continued to increase their holdings, while policy banks changed to significantly decrease their holdings. - The custody of NCDs continued to decrease on a month - on - month basis. Policy banks changed to increase their holdings, while non - legal person products significantly decreased their holdings. - The custody of enterprise bonds continued to decrease on a month - on - month basis, and all major institutions in the bond market decreased their holdings. - The custody of medium - term notes continued to increase on a month - on - month basis. Commercial banks and non - legal person products were the main institutions increasing their holdings. - The custody of short - term financing bills and super - short - term financing bills continued to decrease on a month - on - month basis, and commercial banks were the main institutions decreasing their holdings. - The custody of privately - placed debt instruments changed to a decrease, and commercial banks were the main institutions decreasing their holdings [3][28]. 3.2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bond Types - As of the end of December 2025, the holder structure of treasury bonds: commercial banks accounted for 69.21%, overseas institutions 5.25%, policy banks 11.61%, non - legal person products 7.72%, securities companies 2.50%, insurance institutions 2.57%, and credit cooperatives 1.13% [33]. - The holder structure of policy - based financial bonds: commercial banks accounted for 56.73%, non - legal person products 31.54%, overseas institutions 2.82%, credit cooperatives 3.15%, insurance institutions 1.89%, securities companies 0.93%, and policy banks 2.94% [35]. - The holder structure of local government bonds: commercial banks accounted for 71.83%, non - legal person products 9.83%, policy banks 11.81%, insurance institutions 4.92%, securities companies 1.02%, credit cooperatives 0.57%, and overseas institutions 0.02% [37]. - The holder structure of enterprise bonds: non - legal person products accounted for 55.48%, commercial banks 31.29%, securities companies 9.09%, insurance institutions 3.23%, policy banks 0.54%, credit cooperatives 0.28%, and overseas institutions 0.08% [39]. - The holder structure of medium - term notes: non - legal person products accounted for 60.33%, commercial banks 24.90%, securities companies 4.56%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.67%, policy banks 3.24%, insurance institutions 2.26%, overseas institutions 0.21%, other 0.57%, and credit cooperatives 0.25% [41]. - The holder structure of short - term financing bills and super - short - term financing bills: non - legal person products accounted for 66.21%, commercial banks 26.47%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 2.97%, securities companies 1.01%, policy banks 2.73%, other 0.29%, insurance institutions 0.14%, credit cooperatives 0.02%, and overseas institutions 0.15% [46]. - The holder structure of NCDs: non - legal person products accounted for 63.66%, commercial banks 22.09%, policy banks 2.22%, credit cooperatives 1.90%, other 4.15%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 2.09%, securities companies 0.81%, overseas institutions 2.92%, and insurance institutions 0.16% [45]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage Ratio Observation - The balance of bonds to be repurchased increased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio rose on a month - on - month basis. As of the end of December 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style repurchase of bonds to be repurchased was 11.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 859.04 billion yuan compared to the previous month. The leverage ratio was 107.14%, up 0.54 percentage points month - on - month and down 1.10 percentage points year - on - year [4][47].

Group 1: Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased month-on-month, reaching 178.25 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, with a net increase of 1.48 trillion yuan compared to the previous month [4] - By type, the custody of interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased, while interbank certificates of deposit saw a decrease [4] - The custody of interest rate bonds was 123.94 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.46 trillion yuan; credit bonds reached 19.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.27 trillion yuan; and financial bonds totaled 12.80 trillion yuan, up by 0.10 trillion yuan [4] Group 2: Bond Holder Structure and Changes - Among major institutions in the bond market, only securities companies and foreign institutions saw a decrease in bond custody, while other institutions showed an increase [5] - Policy banks, commercial banks, and non-legal entity products increased their holdings in interest rate bonds and credit bonds, while reducing interbank certificates of deposit [5] - Credit cooperatives and insurance institutions increased their holdings across interest rate bonds, interbank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds [5] Group 3: Bond Market Leverage Rate Observation - The balance of repurchase agreements decreased month-on-month, leading to a decline in the leverage rate of the bond market [6] - As of the end of November 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase agreements was 11.05 trillion yuan, down by 360.125 billion yuan, with a leverage rate of 106.61%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points month-on-month [6]

Group 1 - The total amount of bonds under custody increased significantly, reaching 176.77 trillion yuan by the end of October 2025, with a net increase of 1.31 trillion yuan compared to the previous month [4] - The structure of bond custody shows that interest rate bonds and credit bonds continued to increase, while financial bonds decreased. The total custody of interest rate bonds was 122.49 trillion yuan, accounting for 69.29% of the total [4] - The custody of interbank certificates of deposit saw its first net increase in the second half of the year, amounting to 20.70 trillion yuan, which is 11.67% of the total [4] Group 2 - The bond market's configuration showed a divergence in total custody among institutions, with trading accounts significantly increasing while foreign institutions continued to reduce holdings [5] - Policy banks and non-legal entities increased their holdings in interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and interbank certificates of deposit, while commercial banks reduced their holdings in interest rate bonds and interbank certificates of deposit [5] - The custody of government bonds continued to increase, with securities companies significantly increasing their holdings, while credit cooperatives and insurance institutions reduced theirs [5] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the bond market remained stable month-on-month but decreased year-on-year, with the estimated balance of repurchase agreements at 11.41 trillion yuan, reflecting a net increase of 781.5 billion yuan [7] - The leverage ratio stood at 106.90%, indicating a slight year-on-year decline of 0.75 percentage points [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total bond custody volume increased less month - on - month. As of the end of September 2025, the total bond custody volume of CCDC and SHCH was 175.46 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 0.92 trillion yuan, 0.58 trillion yuan less than the month - on - month increase at the end of August [1][11]. - The custody volume of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds increased net month - on - month, while that of financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) decreased net month - on - month [1][11]. - This month, the total custody volume of major bonds of allocation accounts continued to increase month - on - month, while that of trading accounts and overseas institutions continued to decrease month - on - month [2][27]. - The balance of bonds to be repurchased increased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio rose month - on - month. As of the end of September 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style repo was 11.33 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 99.39 billion yuan, and the leverage ratio was 106.90%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.05 percentage points [4][53]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Volume and Structure - As of the end of September 2025, the total bond custody volume of CCDC and SHCH was 175.46 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 0.92 trillion yuan, 0.58 trillion yuan less than the month - on - month increase at the end of August [1][11]. - In September 2025, the interest - rate bond custody volume was 122.01 trillion yuan, accounting for 69.54% of the inter - bank bond market custody volume, with a net monthly increase of 1.29 trillion yuan; the credit bond custody volume was 18.74 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.68%, with a net monthly increase of 5.0986 billion yuan; the non - policy financial bond custody volume was 12.76 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.27%, with a net monthly decrease of 4.823 billion yuan; the NCD custody volume was 19.97 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.38%, with a net monthly decrease of 0.41 trillion yuan [1][11]. 3.2 Bond Holder Structure and Changes 3.2.1 Changes in Custody Volume by Institution Month - on - Month - Policy banks and commercial banks increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds and reduced their holdings of NCDs [2][27]. - Insurance institutions increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, NCDs, and credit bonds across the board [2][27]. - Securities companies increased their holdings of credit bonds and reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds and NCDs [2][27]. - Credit unions, non - legal entity products, and overseas institutions increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and reduced their holdings of NCDs and credit bonds [2][27]. 3.2.2 Changes in Custody Volume by Bond Type Month - on - Month - The custody volume of treasury bonds continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings, while policy banks continued to reduce their holdings [3][29]. - The custody volume of local government bonds continued to increase month - on - month. Except for commercial banks reducing their holdings, other major institutions increased their holdings [3][29]. - The custody volume of policy - financial bonds continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to increase their holdings, while securities companies and non - legal entity products changed to reducing their holdings [3][29]. - The custody volume of NCDs continued to decrease month - on - month. Except for insurance institutions increasing their holdings, other major institutions reduced their holdings [3][29]. - The custody volume of enterprise bonds continued to decrease month - on - month. Commercial banks and non - legal entity products were the main entities reducing their holdings [3][30]. - The custody volume of medium - term notes continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings, while non - legal entity products changed to reducing their holdings [3][31]. - The custody volume of short - term financing bills and super - short - term financing bills continued to decrease month - on - month. Non - legal entity products were the main entity reducing their holdings [3][31]. - The custody volume of non - publicly - oriented debt instruments continued to decrease month - on - month. Non - legal entity products were the main entity reducing their holdings [3][31]. 3.2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bond Types - As of the end of September 2025, for treasury bonds, commercial banks held 69.91%, overseas institutions held 5.41%, policy banks held 10.29%, etc. [34]. - For policy - financial bonds, commercial banks held 55.25%, non - legal entity products held 31.66%, overseas institutions held 2.95%, etc. [36]. - For local government bonds, commercial banks held 73.38%, non - legal entity products held 9.50%, policy banks held 10.66%, etc. [39]. - For enterprise bonds, non - legal entity products held 54.98%, commercial banks held 32.02%, securities companies held 9.02%, etc. [41]. - For medium - term notes, non - legal entity products held 60.71%, commercial banks held 24.15%, securities companies held 4.88%, etc. [43]. - For short - term financing bills and super - short - term financing bills, non - legal entity products held 63.46%, commercial banks held 29.83%, etc. [46]. - For non - publicly - oriented debt instruments, non - legal entity products held 62.06%, commercial banks held 20.31%, etc. [49]. - For NCDs, non - legal entity products held 60.68%, commercial banks held 23.57%, etc. [51]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage Ratio Observation - As of the end of September 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style repo was 11.33 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 99.39 billion yuan. The leverage ratio was 106.90%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.05 percentage points [4][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [7]. - The allocation between stocks and bonds continues to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [7]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Situation - The combined bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) increased less month - on - month in September. The combined custody volume was 175.46 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 92.1157 billion yuan, a decrease in the month - on - month increase [3]. - The bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House was 48.66 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 3.2441 billion yuan, a rebound in the month - on - month increase [3]. - The bond custody volume of CCDC was 126.80 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 88.8716 billion yuan, a decrease in the month - on - month increase [3]. 3.2 By Bond Type - Interest - rate bonds contributed the main increment this month. The custody volume of interest - rate bonds was 120.45 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 132.9742 billion yuan; the custody volume of credit bonds was 33.36 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of - 4.4188 billion yuan; the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 19.97 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of - 40.7479 billion yuan [4]. - At Shanghai Clearing House, financial bonds (excluding policy - bank financial bonds) contributed the main increment, with a net monthly increase of 26.6 billion yuan; company credit - type bonds had a net monthly increase of 7.7706 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds had a net monthly increase of 6.8 billion yuan; inter - bank certificates of deposit had a net monthly increase of - 40.7479 billion yuan [4]. - At CCDC, treasury bonds contributed the main increment, with a net monthly increase of 76.1256 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds had a net monthly increase of 126.1742 billion yuan; credit bonds had a net monthly increase of - 37.3026 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 By Institution - Commercial banks were the main force in increasing bond holdings. The custody volume of commercial banks was 93.62 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 60.6672 billion yuan [5]. - At Shanghai Clearing House, deposit - taking financial institutions, insurance companies, and securities institutions increased their bond holdings, with net monthly increases of 9.9437 billion yuan, 1.9957 billion yuan, and 0.3561 billion yuan respectively; policy - bank financial institutions, broad - based funds, and overseas institutions had negative net monthly increases in custody volume, which were - 6.6401 billion yuan, - 6.0279 billion yuan, and - 5.5686 billion yuan respectively [5]. - At CCDC, commercial banks were the main contributor to the increment, with a net monthly increase of 48.1213 billion yuan; securities and broad - based funds had negative net monthly increases in custody volume, which were - 3.8856 billion yuan and - 19.1230 billion yuan respectively [5]. 3.4 Leverage - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market increased slightly. In September, the overall leverage ratio of the bond market was 106.90% (previous value: 106.88%), a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points [6]. - By institution, the leverage ratio of commercial banks was 104.40% (previous value: 104.58%), a month - on - month decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions was 109.96% (previous value: 109.66%), a month - on - month increase of 0.29 percentage points, among which the leverage ratio of securities companies was 141.28% (previous value: 138.54%), a month - on - month increase of 2.74 percentage points [6].

Group 1 - The total amount of bonds under custody has slightly increased, reaching 174.54 trillion yuan as of the end of August 2025, with a net increase of 1.51 trillion yuan compared to the previous month [6] - The structure of bond custody shows an increase in interest rate bonds and financial bonds, while credit bonds and interbank certificates of deposit have decreased [6] - Interest rate bonds account for 68.72% of the total custody, with a net increase of 1.80 trillion yuan, while credit bonds decreased by 14.24 billion yuan [6] Group 2 - The configuration of bondholders indicates that policy banks continue to increase their holdings in interest rate bonds, interbank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds, while commercial banks and credit cooperatives have increased interest rate bonds and credit bonds but reduced interbank certificates of deposit [7] - The custody of government bonds has continued to increase, with commercial banks significantly increasing their holdings, while non-legal entities have reduced their holdings [7] - The custody of corporate bonds has decreased, with major institutions showing a trend of reduction [7] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the bond market has decreased, with the estimated balance of repurchase agreements at 11.23 trillion yuan, reflecting a leverage ratio of 106.88%, which is a slight increase from the previous month but a decrease year-on-year [8]

Investment Rating of the Report There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the bond custody data for July 2025, indicating that the total bond custody increased month - on - month, with different trends among various bond types and institutions. The leverage ratio of the bond market decreased month - on - month due to the seasonal reduction of the repurchase bond balance [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased month - on - month. As of the end of July 2025, the combined bond custody of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House was 173.03 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 1.74 trillion yuan, 0.45 trillion yuan more than the month - on - month increase at the end of June [1][10]. - The custody of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased month - on - month, while the custody of inter - bank certificates of deposit (ICDs) decreased. In July 2025, the custody of interest - rate bonds was 118.91 trillion yuan, accounting for 68.72% of the inter - bank bond market custody, with a net increase of 1.51 trillion yuan; the custody of credit bonds was 18.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.80%, with a net increase of 0.18 trillion yuan; the custody of non - policy financial bonds was 12.78 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.39%, with a net increase of 0.41 trillion yuan; the custody of ICDs was 20.74 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.99%, with a net decrease of 0.37 trillion yuan [1][10]. 2. Bond Holder Structure and Changes 2.1 Changes in Custody by Institution Month - on - Month - The custody of major bonds by various institutions in the bond market showed differentiation this month. Allocation accounts increased their custody, while trading accounts and overseas institutions decreased theirs. Specifically, policy banks, insurance institutions, and credit unions increased their holdings of major bonds across the board; commercial banks increased their holdings of major interest - rate and credit products but continued to reduce their holdings of ICDs; securities companies increased their holdings of ICDs but reduced their holdings of major interest - rate and credit products; non - legal entity products continued to increase their holdings of major credit products but reduced their holdings of major interest - rate products and ICDs; overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of major bonds across the board [2][24]. - In July, the "anti - involution" policy boosted the equity and commodity markets. Under the influence of factors such as the stock - bond seesaw, the bond market significantly corrected. Trading accounts such as securities and broad - based funds quickly took profits and sold, while allocation accounts such as commercial banks and insurance companies bought significantly, acting as a "stabilizer" for the bond market [24]. 2.2 Changes in Custody by Bond Type Month - on - Month - Treasury bond custody continued to increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [2][26]. - Local government bond custody continued to increase this month, and commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings [2][26]. - Policy - financial bond custody continued to increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [2][26]. - ICD custody continued to decrease this month, with commercial banks being the main sellers. The continuous decline in ICD custody was mainly due to the slowdown in issuance and relatively large maturity of existing bonds [2][26]. - Corporate bond custody continued to decrease this month, with non - legal entity products being the main sellers [2][29]. - Medium - term note custody continued to increase this month, and non - legal entity products continued to significantly increase their holdings [2][29]. - Short - term and super - short - term financing custody turned to an increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [29]. - Non - publicly - oriented instrument custody continued to decrease this month, with non - legal entity products being the main sellers [30]. 2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bonds - As of the end of July 2025, the holder structure of major bonds varied. For example, commercial banks were the largest holders of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds, while non - legal entity products were the largest holders of medium - term notes, short - term and super - short - term financing, and ICDs [33][34][37]. 3. Observation of Bond Market Leverage Ratio - The balance of bonds to be repurchased decreased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio decreased month - on - month. As of the end of July 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style pledged repos was 110,279.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 11,233.91 billion yuan month - on - month. The leverage ratio was 106.81%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points month - on - month and 0.24 percentage points year - on - year [3][48].