以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 2、债券持有者结构及变动 本月配置盘主要券种托管总量环比续增，交易盘和境外机构托管总量环比续减： 政策性银行持续增持利率债、同业存单和信用债； 商业银行、信用社增持利率债和信用债，减持同业存单； 保险机构、证券公司、非法人类产品增持利率债，减持同业存单和信用债； 境外机构持续持续减持利率债、同业存单和信用债。 分券种托管量环比变化： 国债托管量本月环比续增，商业银行持续大幅增持，非法人类产品持续减持； 地方债托管量本月环比续增，政策性银行持续增持，商业银行转变为减持； 政金债托管量本月环比续增，商业银行持续增持，政策性银行转变为减持； 同 ...

Investment Rating of the Report There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the bond custody data for July 2025, indicating that the total bond custody increased month - on - month, with different trends among various bond types and institutions. The leverage ratio of the bond market decreased month - on - month due to the seasonal reduction of the repurchase bond balance [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased month - on - month. As of the end of July 2025, the combined bond custody of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House was 173.03 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 1.74 trillion yuan, 0.45 trillion yuan more than the month - on - month increase at the end of June [1][10]. - The custody of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased month - on - month, while the custody of inter - bank certificates of deposit (ICDs) decreased. In July 2025, the custody of interest - rate bonds was 118.91 trillion yuan, accounting for 68.72% of the inter - bank bond market custody, with a net increase of 1.51 trillion yuan; the custody of credit bonds was 18.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.80%, with a net increase of 0.18 trillion yuan; the custody of non - policy financial bonds was 12.78 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.39%, with a net increase of 0.41 trillion yuan; the custody of ICDs was 20.74 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.99%, with a net decrease of 0.37 trillion yuan [1][10]. 2. Bond Holder Structure and Changes 2.1 Changes in Custody by Institution Month - on - Month - The custody of major bonds by various institutions in the bond market showed differentiation this month. Allocation accounts increased their custody, while trading accounts and overseas institutions decreased theirs. Specifically, policy banks, insurance institutions, and credit unions increased their holdings of major bonds across the board; commercial banks increased their holdings of major interest - rate and credit products but continued to reduce their holdings of ICDs; securities companies increased their holdings of ICDs but reduced their holdings of major interest - rate and credit products; non - legal entity products continued to increase their holdings of major credit products but reduced their holdings of major interest - rate products and ICDs; overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of major bonds across the board [2][24]. - In July, the "anti - involution" policy boosted the equity and commodity markets. Under the influence of factors such as the stock - bond seesaw, the bond market significantly corrected. Trading accounts such as securities and broad - based funds quickly took profits and sold, while allocation accounts such as commercial banks and insurance companies bought significantly, acting as a "stabilizer" for the bond market [24]. 2.2 Changes in Custody by Bond Type Month - on - Month - Treasury bond custody continued to increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [2][26]. - Local government bond custody continued to increase this month, and commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings [2][26]. - Policy - financial bond custody continued to increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [2][26]. - ICD custody continued to decrease this month, with commercial banks being the main sellers. The continuous decline in ICD custody was mainly due to the slowdown in issuance and relatively large maturity of existing bonds [2][26]. - Corporate bond custody continued to decrease this month, with non - legal entity products being the main sellers [2][29]. - Medium - term note custody continued to increase this month, and non - legal entity products continued to significantly increase their holdings [2][29]. - Short - term and super - short - term financing custody turned to an increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [29]. - Non - publicly - oriented instrument custody continued to decrease this month, with non - legal entity products being the main sellers [30]. 2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bonds - As of the end of July 2025, the holder structure of major bonds varied. For example, commercial banks were the largest holders of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds, while non - legal entity products were the largest holders of medium - term notes, short - term and super - short - term financing, and ICDs [33][34][37]. 3. Observation of Bond Market Leverage Ratio - The balance of bonds to be repurchased decreased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio decreased month - on - month. As of the end of July 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style pledged repos was 110,279.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 11,233.91 billion yuan month - on - month. The leverage ratio was 106.81%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points month - on - month and 0.24 percentage points year - on - year [3][48].

Group 1 - The total amount of bonds under custody has slightly increased, reaching 171.29 trillion yuan as of June 2025, with a net increase of 1.30 trillion yuan compared to the previous month [3] - The custody of interest rate bonds is 117.40 trillion yuan, accounting for 68.54% of the total, with a net increase of 1.67 trillion yuan [3] - The custody of credit bonds is 18.51 trillion yuan, representing 10.81% of the total, with a net increase of 0.17 trillion yuan [3] Group 2 - Policy banks and insurance institutions have increased their holdings of major bond types, while commercial banks have increased their holdings of interest rate products but reduced their holdings of interbank certificates and major credit bonds [4] - Non-legal person products have significantly increased their holdings of government bonds and medium-term notes, while commercial banks have reduced their holdings of corporate bonds and non-public directed tools [5] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the bond market has slightly increased, with the estimated balance of repurchase agreements reaching 121.51 trillion yuan, resulting in a leverage ratio of 107.64%, which is an increase of 0.90 percentage points from the previous month [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of the end of June 2025, the total bond custody decreased on a month - on - month basis. The custody of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased significantly due to concentrated maturities, while other bonds increased. Different institutions showed distinct trends in bond holding, and the bond market leverage ratio increased slightly [1][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased less on a month - on - month basis. As of the end of June 2025, the combined bond custody of CCDC and SHCH was 171.29 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.30 trillion yuan, 0.87 trillion yuan less than the month - on - month increase at the end of May [1][11]. - Affected by concentrated maturities, the custody of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 0.72 trillion yuan, the largest decline in recent years. The custody of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and non - policy financial bonds increased by 1.67 trillion yuan, 0.17 trillion yuan, and 0.20 trillion yuan respectively [1][11]. 3.2 Bond Holder Structure and Changes 3.2.1 Month - on - month Changes in Custody by Institution - Policy banks and insurance institutions increased their holdings of major bond types comprehensively. - Commercial banks increased their holdings of major interest - rate products but continued to reduce their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit and major credit products. - Credit unions and overseas institutions reduced their holdings of major bond types comprehensively. - Securities companies and non - legal entity products increased their holdings of major interest - rate and credit products but reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit [2][24]. 3.2.2 Month - on - month Changes in Custody by Bond Type - Treasury bond custody continued to increase, with non - legal entity products being the main buyers. - Local government bond custody continued to increase, with commercial banks as the main buyers and policy banks as the main sellers. - Policy financial bond custody continued to increase, with non - legal entity products turning to large - scale buying. - Inter - bank certificate of deposit custody turned to a decrease, with non - legal entity products as the main sellers. - Corporate bond custody continued to decrease, with commercial banks as the main sellers. - Medium - term note custody continued to increase, with non - legal entity products as the main buyers. - Short - term financing and super short - term financing custody continued to decrease, with commercial banks and non - legal entity products as the main sellers. - Non - public directional instrument custody continued to decrease, with non - legal entity products and commercial banks as the main sellers [3][26][27]. 3.2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bond Types - Treasury bonds: Commercial banks held 67.07%, policy banks 11.24%, and non - legal entity products 8.93%. - Policy financial bonds: Commercial banks held 53.65%, non - legal entity products 33.11%. - Local government bonds: Commercial banks held 75.08%, policy banks 9.35%. - Corporate bonds: Non - legal entity products held 53.90%, commercial banks 32.37%. - Medium - term notes: Non - legal entity products held 62.18%, commercial banks 23.01%. - Short - term and super short - term financing: Non - legal entity products held 62.85%, commercial banks 20.05%. - Non - public directional instruments: Non - legal entity products held 59.26%, commercial banks 25.20%. - Inter - bank certificates of deposit: Non - legal entity products held 64.91%, commercial banks 28.17% [32][34][37]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage Ratio Observation As of the end of June 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - to - be - acquired pledged repos was 12.151369 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.417041 trillion yuan month - on - month. The leverage ratio was 107.64%, up 0.90 percentage points month - on - month and 0.05 percentage points year - on - year [4][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the bond custody volume data in May 2025, indicating that the month - on - month increase in the total bond custody volume has widened, with different trends in various bond types and significant differences in the custody volume changes of different institutions. The bond market leverage ratio has slightly increased [1][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Custody Volume and Structure - The total bond custody volume has a wider month - on - month increase. As of the end of May 2025, the total bond custody volume of CCDC and SHCH was 169.99 trillion yuan, with a net month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan, 0.56 trillion yuan more than that at the end of April [10]. - The total credit bond custody volume slightly decreased, while the custody volumes of other bonds all increased month - on - month. In May 2025, the interest - rate bond custody volume was 115.73 trillion yuan, accounting for 68.08% of the inter - bank bond market custody volume, with a net increase of 1.70 trillion yuan; the credit bond custody volume was 18.35 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.79%, with a slight month - on - month decrease of 5254 million yuan; the non - policy financial bond custody volume was 12.17 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.16%, with a net increase of 0.22 trillion yuan; the inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) custody volume was 21.83 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.84%, with a net increase of 0.27 trillion yuan [10]. 3.2 Bond Holder Structure and Changes 3.2.1 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody Volume by Institution - Policy banks continued to increase their holdings of NCDs and major credit products while continuously reducing their holdings of major interest - rate products. - Commercial banks continued to increase their holdings of major interest - rate products while reducing their holdings of NCDs and major credit products. - Credit unions and non - legal entity products comprehensively increased their holdings of major bond types. - Insurance institutions increased their holdings of major interest - rate products and major credit products while continuously reducing their holdings of NCDs. - Securities companies and overseas institutions comprehensively reduced their holdings of major bond types [22]. 3.2.2 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody Volume by Bond Type - The custody volume of treasury bonds continued to increase month - on - month, with commercial banks continuously increasing their holdings and policy banks continuously reducing their holdings. - The custody volume of local government bonds continued to increase month - on - month, with commercial banks continuously increasing their holdings and policy banks continuously reducing their holdings. - The custody volume of policy financial bonds changed to an increase, with commercial banks being the main buyers. - The custody volume of NCDs continued to increase month - on - month, with non - legal entity products continuously increasing their holdings and commercial banks continuously reducing their holdings. - The custody volume of enterprise bonds continued to decrease month - on - month, and all institutions reduced their holdings. - The custody volume of medium - term notes continued to increase month - on - month, with non - legal entity products significantly increasing their holdings and commercial banks changing to reducing their holdings. - The custody volume of short - term commercial paper and super short - term commercial paper changed to a decrease, with non - legal entity products being the main sellers. - The custody volume of privately placed bonds continued to decrease month - on - month, with commercial banks being the main sellers [24]. 3.2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bond Types - As of the end of May 2025, the holder structure of treasury bonds: commercial banks accounted for 67.72%, overseas institutions 6.11%, policy banks 10.97%, non - legal entity products 8.38%, securities companies 3.10%, insurance institutions 2.56%, and credit unions 1.16% [29]. - The holder structure of policy financial bonds: commercial banks accounted for 54.39%, non - legal entity products 32.12%, overseas institutions 3.32%, credit unions 3.23%, insurance institutions 2.10%, securities companies 1.01%, and policy banks 3.83% [31]. - The holder structure of local government bonds: commercial banks accounted for 75.11%, non - legal entity products 9.07%, policy banks 9.50%, insurance institutions 4.82%, securities companies 0.93%, credit unions 0.55%, and overseas institutions 0.02% [35]. - The holder structure of enterprise bonds: non - legal entity products accounted for 53.61%, commercial banks 32.85%, securities companies 9.09%, insurance institutions 3.29%, policy banks 0.74%, credit unions 0.33%, and overseas institutions 0.09% [37]. - The holder structure of medium - term notes: non - legal entity products accounted for 62.74%, commercial banks 20.49%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 7.16%, policy banks 4.85%, securities companies 4.32%, others 0.24%, credit unions 0.17%, overseas institutions 0.01%, and insurance institutions 0.00% [41]. - The holder structure of privately placed bonds: non - legal entity products accounted for 59.37%, commercial banks 25.05%, policy banks 1.35%, credit unions 2.10%, others 3.26%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 2.01%, securities companies 1.18%, overseas institutions 5.60%, and insurance institutions 0.09% [44]. - The holder structure of NCDs: non - legal entity products accounted for 64.77%, commercial banks 28.59%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.32%, securities companies 0.81%, policy banks 1.39%, others 0.25%, insurance institutions 0.09%, credit unions 0.05%, and overseas institutions 0.74% [46]. 3.3 Observation of Bond Market Leverage Ratio As of the end of May 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - to - be - bought under pledged repurchase was 107,343.28 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1,870.36 billion yuan. The leverage ratio was 106.74%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.05 percentage points [47].

Group 1 - The total amount of bonds under custody has slightly increased, reaching 167.82 trillion yuan as of the end of April 2025, with a net increase of 1.61 trillion yuan compared to the previous month [3] - The structure of bond custody shows that interest rate bonds account for 67.95% of the total, with a net increase of 0.99 trillion yuan, while credit bonds and financial bonds also saw slight increases [3] - The bond holding structure indicates that most institutions, except for policy banks, have increased their bond holdings, with commercial banks continuing to increase their holdings of major interest rate products and credit products [4] Group 2 - The custody of government bonds has continued to increase, while policy banks have significantly reduced their holdings, and commercial banks have increased theirs [6] - The custody of local government bonds has also seen an increase, with policy banks reducing their holdings and commercial banks increasing theirs [6] - The leverage ratio in the bond market has decreased, with the estimated balance of repurchase agreements at 10.55 trillion yuan, down by 1.78 trillion yuan, resulting in a leverage ratio of 106.71% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the bond custody data for April 2025, indicating that the total bond custody increased less month - on - month. All types of bonds saw a net increase in custody. Except for policy banks which significantly reduced their bond custody, other major bond market institutions increased their holdings. The bond market leverage ratio decreased month - on - month [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased less month - on - month. As of the end of April 2025, the total bond custody of CCDC and SHCH was 167.82 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.61 trillion yuan month - on - month, 1.05 trillion yuan less than the month - on - month increase in March [1][11]. - All types of bonds had a net increase in custody. Interest - rate bonds had a custody of 114.03 trillion yuan, accounting for 67.95% of the inter - bank bond market custody, with a net increase of 0.99 trillion yuan; credit bonds had a custody of 18.35 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.94%, with a net increase of 0.07 trillion yuan; non - policy financial bonds had a custody of 11.95 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.12%, with a net increase of 0.18 trillion yuan; and inter - bank certificates of deposit had a custody of 21.56 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.85%, with a net increase of 0.38 trillion yuan [1][11]. 3.2 Bond Holder Structure and Changes 3.2.1 Changes in Custody by Institution Month - on - Month - Policy banks increased their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit and major credit products while significantly reducing their holdings of major interest - rate products. - Commercial banks continuously increased their holdings of major interest - rate products and credit products while continuously reducing their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit. - Credit unions increased their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit and reduced their holdings of major interest - rate products and credit products. - Insurance institutions and securities companies continuously increased their holdings of major interest - rate products and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit and major credit products. - Non - legal person products and overseas institutions showed comprehensive increases in holdings [2][25]. 3.2.2 Changes in Custody by Bond Type Month - on - Month - Treasury bond custody continued to increase month - on - month. Policy banks continuously reduced their holdings, while commercial banks continuously increased their holdings. - Local government bond custody continued to increase month - on - month. Policy banks significantly reduced their holdings, while commercial banks continuously increased their holdings. - Policy - financial bond custody changed to a reduction this month, with commercial banks being the main reduction entity. - Inter - bank certificate of deposit custody continued to increase month - on - month. Non - legal person products continuously increased their holdings, while commercial banks continuously reduced their holdings. - Corporate bond custody continued to decrease month - on - month, and all institutions showed a reduction in holdings. - Medium - term note custody continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continuously increased their holdings, while securities companies changed to a reduction in holdings. - Short - term financing and ultra - short - term financing custody changed to an increase this month, with non - legal person products being the main increase entity. - Non - publicly - oriented debt instrument custody continued to decrease month - on - month, with non - legal person products being the main reduction entity [3][27][28]. 3.2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bond Types - Treasury bonds: Commercial banks accounted for 66.78%, overseas institutions 6.27%, policy banks 11.40%, non - legal person products 8.54%, securities companies 3.29%, insurance institutions 2.59%, and credit unions 1.12% [33]. - Policy - financial bonds: Commercial banks accounted for 53.86%, non - legal person products 32.42%, overseas institutions 3.39%, credit unions 3.18%, insurance institutions 2.13%, securities companies 1.08%, and policy banks 3.94% [36]. - Local government bonds: Commercial banks accounted for 74.70%, non - legal person products 8.85%, policy banks 9.99%, insurance institutions 4.89%, securities companies 1.01%, credit unions 0.55%, and overseas institutions 0.02% [39]. - Corporate bonds: Non - legal person products accounted for 53.53%, commercial banks 33.04%, securities companies 8.98%, insurance institutions 3.27%, policy banks 0.75%, credit unions 0.35%, and overseas institutions 0.09% [41]. - Medium - term notes: Non - legal person products accounted for 61.79%, commercial banks 23.71%, securities companies 5.50%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.06%, policy banks 2.50%, insurance institutions 2.40%, overseas institutions 0.30%, others 0.48%, and credit unions 0.27% [42]. - Short - term financing and ultra - short - term financing: Non - legal person products accounted for 62.52%, commercial banks 21.02%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 6.74%, policy banks 4.84%, securities companies 4.45%, others 0.24%, credit unions 0.18%, overseas institutions 0.01%, and insurance institutions 0.00% [45]. - Non - publicly - oriented debt instruments: Non - legal person products accounted for 57.91%, commercial banks 26.11%, policy banks 1.28%, credit unions 2.08%, others 3.32%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 1.93%, securities companies 1.26%, overseas institutions 6.01%, and insurance institutions 0.11% [47]. - Inter - bank certificates of deposit: Non - legal person products accounted for 64.69%, commercial banks 27.84%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.31%, securities companies 0.84%, policy banks 2.05%, others 0.20%, insurance institutions 0.08%, credit unions 0.05%, and overseas institutions 0.94% [49]. 3.3 Observation of Bond Market Leverage Ratio - The balance of bonds to be repurchased decreased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio decreased month - on - month. As of the end of April 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - pledged repos was 105,472.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,780.97 billion yuan month - on - month. The leverage ratio was 106.71%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points month - on - month and 0.58 percentage points year - on - year [4][50].

Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of the year, the funding environment has remained tight, particularly with a noticeable increase in short-term interest rates. The article explores the remaining government debt supply for the first quarter, the liquidity gap in March, and whether the funding situation will improve [1][4]. Group 1: Funding Tightness - The funding environment has been tight since the start of 2025, with the central bank increasing the scale of reverse repos. Despite this, the pressure on liquidity has slightly eased from January to February, with a reduction in liquidity stratification [1][4]. - The central bank's operations included a resumption of 14-day reverse repos before the Spring Festival, while the scale of medium-term lending facility (MLF) continued to decrease. The buyout reverse repo operations have provided significant support for medium to long-term liquidity [5][6]. Group 2: Government Debt Supply - In March, it is estimated that the issuance of government bonds will reach approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of nearly 650 billion yuan after accounting for 712.2 billion yuan in maturing bonds. Local government bonds are expected to total around 1.3 trillion yuan, resulting in a combined net financing scale of over 1.8 trillion yuan for government debt [2][14]. Group 3: Liquidity Outlook - The liquidity gap in March is projected to be around 260 billion yuan, indicating some pressure on the funding environment. However, after the "Two Sessions," funding rates are expected to trend towards easing, with the central bank's net injection likely to increase marginally [3][19]. - The article suggests that the central bank may primarily use buyout reverse repos to supplement medium to long-term liquidity during the phase of increased government debt supply, which could lead to a decrease in funding rates, especially for short-term bonds [19].