美国财政部的一句话，正在削弱日元最后一道"心理防线"。 据追风交易台，野村在最新外汇策略报告中指出，美国财政部长贝森特公开否认美方正在进行外汇干 预，等于间接拆掉了此前压在美元/日元上的"干预预期锚"，令市场在做空日元时，少了一层顾忌。 从市场反应看，这一表态并非象征性。1月28日贝森特在CNBC直言"Absolutely not"之后，美元/日元迅 速反弹，从152.7附近拉升至153.8一线，几乎抹去此前因"纽约联储查价"传闻引发的跌幅。 真正被击穿的，并不是点位，而是"干预预期" 此前一周，美元/日元从160附近快速回落，很大程度并非基本面逆转，而是市场高度警惕两件事： 美方是否已通过纽约联储"查价"，为联合干预铺路 日本财务省（MOF）是否已悄然入场买入日元 但野村强调，贝森特的表态实质上弱化了第一条假设。即便纽约联储确实进行过查价，那也只是流程性 动作，并不等同于已经、或即将干预。 结果是：美元/日元的"政策风险溢价"被迅速压缩，做空日元重新变成一笔"性价比更高"的交易。 日本是否已经干预？数据给出的答案是：证据不足 另一条防线来自日本自身。 野村通过日本央行每日资金账户数据估算发现，在美元/日元大 ...

澳大利亚国民银行外汇策略师Rodrigo Catril称："日本的基本面并未发生改变——日本央行仍维持宽松 的货币政策，高市早苗政府还计划推出无资金支持的扩张性财政政策。除非日本央行的货币政策出现转 向，否则外汇干预难以对日元走势产生长期影响。" 美国方面的立场则让局势变得更为复杂。日本若实施汇率干预，本质上是通过抛售美元提振日元，这会 对美元形成贬值压力;而当前市场对美元开启新一轮下跌趋势的讨论正日趋热烈，在此背景下，日本的 干预举措需获得美国的默许，否则极易成为敏感议题。 周三，贝森特明确表示美国"绝不会"介入美元兑日元汇率市场，这番表态直接浇灭了市场对联合干预的 期待，还引发日元汇率一度大跌1.2%，创下逾五周以来的最大单日跌幅。而在此之前，纽约联储疑似 开展利率核查的市场传闻曾短暂提振日元，推动美元兑日元汇率逼近150关口。 尽管目前日元汇率尚未触及市场普遍认为的、可能触发日本当局即时干预的水平，但交易员已不得不重 新评估：从当下到2月8日日本众议院提前大选前，若日元出现大幅贬值，日本政府可能会采取何种应对 措施。 澳大利亚联邦银行策略师Carol Kong表示："既然联合干预的可能性微乎其微，市场或 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in support for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet reflects growing concerns over Japan's economic policies and the effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's monetary strategies [1][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest public opinion poll shows Kishida's cabinet support rate at 67.5%, down 2.4 percentage points from November, with a disapproval rate of 20.4% [1]. - The Japanese yen has been on a downward trend, recently trading at 157.76 yen per dollar, marking a significant depreciation of 20% compared to three years ago [1]. - Following a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.020%, the highest since August 1999 [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - Economists note that the recent interest rate hike was conservative, failing to instill confidence in the market regarding the government's policies [2][3]. - The Bank of Japan's commitment to maintaining loose financial conditions has led to skepticism about the effectiveness of its monetary policy in controlling inflation and stabilizing the yen [3][4]. - The yield on long-term Japanese government bonds has reached a 26-year high, indicating a lack of investor confidence in domestic bonds [4]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Concerns - Kishida's government has approved an additional budget of 18.3 trillion yen to support economic stimulus, with 11.7 trillion yen financed through new bond issuance, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal health [5][6]. - There is apprehension among investors regarding Japan's public debt, with projections suggesting that the debt-to-GDP ratio could rise from 215% to 230% by 2030 if current fiscal policies persist [6]. - The government's lack of a clear plan for debt repayment has led to market skepticism about its fiscal responsibility [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates twice next year, potentially reaching 1.25%, but any significant intervention in the foreign exchange market may depend on the yen's performance against the dollar [8]. - The finance minister has indicated that the government has room to take decisive action in response to currency fluctuations, hinting at possible direct market interventions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has been in a downward trend in the foreign exchange market, with significant depreciation despite the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike, indicating a lack of market confidence in the government's policies [3][4][6]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation and Economic Policies - The yen has depreciated significantly, with a 20% drop compared to three years ago, reaching historical lows against major currencies [3][6]. - Following a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the yen continued to weaken, suggesting that the market does not view the government's policies favorably [4][6]. - The Bank of Japan's cautious approach to monetary policy, characterized by a gradual increase in rates, has not effectively addressed inflation or stabilized the currency [6][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - The increase in loan costs due to the interest rate hike has led to a shift in investment strategies, with some funds moving to the stock market while others are leaving Japan due to concerns over public debt [7][10]. - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has reached a 26-year high, indicating a lack of confidence in domestic investments [7][8]. - There is a growing concern among investors regarding Japan's fiscal health, with a significant portion of the population expressing worries about the government's financial management [12][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Potential Interventions - Analysts predict that if the yen continues to depreciate, the Bank of Japan may need to reassess its monetary policy to balance between stabilizing the currency and controlling inflation [14][15]. - The Japanese government is expected to face increasing fiscal pressure, with potential interventions in the foreign exchange market if the yen's decline accelerates [14][15]. - Future interest rate hikes are anticipated, with expectations of two more increases, potentially bringing the rate to 1.25% [15].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan officials believe there is no need to change the gradual interest rate hike policy following the election loss of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and they will closely monitor future fiscal policies of the Japanese government [1][2] - The Japanese yen continues to decline, reaching 147.93 yen per dollar, and the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain the interest rate at 0.5% in the upcoming policy meeting [2] - Inflation risks are rising due to surging prices of rice and other food items, with Japan's key inflation indicator increasing by 3.3% last month, remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years [2] Group 2 - The recent election results have made the ruling coalition more susceptible to opposition influence, which may lead to increased fiscal spending, including calls from opposition parties to lower sales tax to assist families affected by inflation [2] - Despite the election outcome, the Bank of Japan's policy trajectory is not expected to change immediately, although officials will monitor the potential inflationary impact of any significant fiscal policy relaxation by the government [2] - The U.S. has announced a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, but Bank of Japan officials do not anticipate a significant change in economic outlook as they had already projected a temporary economic stagnation in their May report [3]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy is in a complex and fragile state, facing high public debt, an aging population, external trade pressures, and potential risks in the financial system, leading to concerns about a possible debt crisis similar to Greece, although short-term risks are mitigated [1] Short-term Buffer - Japan's public debt is projected to reach 1350 trillion yen, accounting for 263% of GDP, significantly higher than Greece's 142% during its crisis [2] - 87% of Japan's public debt is held by domestic institutions, with the Bank of Japan holding 46.3%, which reduces default risk due to currency sovereignty [2] - Japan's net debt level is at 114%, with interest payments projected to be 1.7% of GDP in 2025, approximately 16.5 trillion yen, much lower than Greece's 5% to 7% during its crisis [2] Long-term Challenges - Japan faces significant challenges from an aging population, with social security spending expected to reach 42 trillion yen by 2025, constituting 36% of total government spending [3] - Tax revenue is only 18.2% of GDP, insufficient to cover total expenditures, leading to a growing fiscal deficit [3] - External economic pressures include a depreciating yen increasing import costs, particularly for energy, and potential tariffs on Japanese cars from the U.S., which could result in a revenue loss of $10 billion to $15 billion [3] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Bank of Japan holds 575.9 trillion yen in government bonds, exceeding 100% of GDP, but rising interest rates have led to unrealized losses of about $200 billion [4] - Insurance companies have also faced losses of around $60 billion due to falling bond prices, impacting their willingness to purchase government bonds [4] - Japanese financial institutions are heavily involved in the $98 trillion "global dollar shadow debt," which could lead to significant losses if global liquidity tightens [4] Political Landscape and Fiscal Policy - The upcoming July Senate elections are critical for Japan's fiscal policy, with the ruling coalition potentially losing its majority, which could lead to increased fiscal deficits due to proposed tax cuts and subsidies [5] - The government faces a dilemma between maintaining fiscal discipline to uphold market confidence and providing subsidies to meet voter demands [5] - Increased defense spending is further constraining budget space, and any relaxation of fiscal discipline could trigger a sell-off in the bond market, reminiscent of the pre-crisis situation in Greece [5]

Core Viewpoint - In the absence of support from the Bank of Japan, the yield curve of Japanese government bonds may continue to steepen, influenced by recent adverse factors and upcoming fiscal measures [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The ruling coalition in Japan may announce fiscal measures, such as cost-of-living subsidies, before the July Senate elections, potentially worsening Japan's fiscal situation [1] - Recent statements from Japanese life insurance companies indicate plans to reduce their holdings of Japanese government bonds, contributing to the steepening yield curve [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The clarity of Japan's fiscal policy trajectory and the Bank of Japan's bond purchasing plans will be crucial for stabilizing the long-term yield curve in the coming weeks [1]