石破茂领导的执政联盟在周日的选举中失去了参议院的多数席位，使其政策更容易受到反对派的影响， 其中包括增加财政支出。选举结束后首个交易日，日本国债仍面临进一步抛售的压力。 虽然石破茂领导的执政党已经承诺提供现金补助，但许多反对党呼吁采取更昂贵的措施，即降低销售 税，以帮助那些受到通胀影响的家庭。 智通财经APP获悉，据知情人士透露，在日本首相石破茂遭遇选举失利之后，日本央行官员认为，没有 必要改变逐步加息的政策立场。知情人士表示，尽管日本央行官员们将密切关注日本政府未来的财政政 策，但如果经济形势如他们所预期的那样发展，继续提高日本央行的基准利率是合适的。 日元兑美元延续跌势，一度下跌0.4%至1美元兑147.93日元。 知情人士补充说，日本央行委员会可能会在下周的政策会议上将利率维持在0.5%。由于日本和美国的 贸易谈判仍在进行中，日本央行官员们还希望在再次加息之前评估贸易协议对通胀趋势和未来经济的潜 在影响。 知情人士表示，由于大米和其他食品价格飙升，物价上涨速度超出预期，日本央行官员们认为通胀风险 上升。 日本的关键通胀指标上个月上涨了3.3%，在七国集团中位居前列。日本通胀率持续高企，三年多来一 直达到 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy is in a complex and fragile state, facing high public debt, an aging population, external trade pressures, and potential risks in the financial system, leading to concerns about a possible debt crisis similar to Greece, although short-term risks are mitigated [1] Short-term Buffer - Japan's public debt is projected to reach 1350 trillion yen, accounting for 263% of GDP, significantly higher than Greece's 142% during its crisis [2] - 87% of Japan's public debt is held by domestic institutions, with the Bank of Japan holding 46.3%, which reduces default risk due to currency sovereignty [2] - Japan's net debt level is at 114%, with interest payments projected to be 1.7% of GDP in 2025, approximately 16.5 trillion yen, much lower than Greece's 5% to 7% during its crisis [2] Long-term Challenges - Japan faces significant challenges from an aging population, with social security spending expected to reach 42 trillion yen by 2025, constituting 36% of total government spending [3] - Tax revenue is only 18.2% of GDP, insufficient to cover total expenditures, leading to a growing fiscal deficit [3] - External economic pressures include a depreciating yen increasing import costs, particularly for energy, and potential tariffs on Japanese cars from the U.S., which could result in a revenue loss of $10 billion to $15 billion [3] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Bank of Japan holds 575.9 trillion yen in government bonds, exceeding 100% of GDP, but rising interest rates have led to unrealized losses of about $200 billion [4] - Insurance companies have also faced losses of around $60 billion due to falling bond prices, impacting their willingness to purchase government bonds [4] - Japanese financial institutions are heavily involved in the $98 trillion "global dollar shadow debt," which could lead to significant losses if global liquidity tightens [4] Political Landscape and Fiscal Policy - The upcoming July Senate elections are critical for Japan's fiscal policy, with the ruling coalition potentially losing its majority, which could lead to increased fiscal deficits due to proposed tax cuts and subsidies [5] - The government faces a dilemma between maintaining fiscal discipline to uphold market confidence and providing subsidies to meet voter demands [5] - Increased defense spending is further constraining budget space, and any relaxation of fiscal discipline could trigger a sell-off in the bond market, reminiscent of the pre-crisis situation in Greece [5]

Core Viewpoint - In the absence of support from the Bank of Japan, the yield curve of Japanese government bonds may continue to steepen, influenced by recent adverse factors and upcoming fiscal measures [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The ruling coalition in Japan may announce fiscal measures, such as cost-of-living subsidies, before the July Senate elections, potentially worsening Japan's fiscal situation [1] - Recent statements from Japanese life insurance companies indicate plans to reduce their holdings of Japanese government bonds, contributing to the steepening yield curve [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The clarity of Japan's fiscal policy trajectory and the Bank of Japan's bond purchasing plans will be crucial for stabilizing the long-term yield curve in the coming weeks [1]