2025 年 12 月 20 日 策略周报 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 《AH 溢价跌破位，港股在交易什么？——策略专 题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-10-12 《美国降息周期中的"第四种"交易模式——策略 专题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-08-14 《美元寻锚之路：去杠杆，减敞口，再平衡*胡国 鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-06-22 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、美国货币政策展望；2、日本货币政 策展望；3、海外流动性变化对美元资产、人民币资产和港股的影响。 核心结论: 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 袁野 S0350525030001 yuany03@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 | 1、 | 美国货币政策展望 4 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1、 | 美国就业和通胀现状与展望 4 | | | 1.2、 | 美国 ...

新华财经北京12月19日电在日元持续贬值的背景下，三井住友银行信托银行投资研究主管山口正弘 （Masahiro Yamaguchi）指出，当前日元下跌主要源于市场预期"实际负利率将暂时持续"。与此同时， 日元走软支撑出口企业盈利预期，推动日本股市延续涨势。 （文章来源：新华财经） 截至2025年12月19日，美元兑日元汇率已逼近157:1的历史低位区间。此前，日本央行已在12月1日释放 明确鹰派信号，称将在货币政策会议上"考虑提高政策利率的利弊"，引发全球市场对日本结束长达三十 年超低利率时代的广泛预期。 然而，正如山口正弘所言，汇率走势已成为影响加息节奏的关键变量。若日元贬值趋势失控，日本央行 或被迫在"稳汇率"与"控通胀"之间重新权衡，进而延缓紧缩步伐。 山口正弘强调，为遏制日元进一步贬值，日本央行行长植田和男在即将举行的新闻发布会上"可能需要 采取相当强硬的语气"。他同时提醒，若日元汇率继续走弱，"上调利率的速度将再次变得不确定"。 这一观点凸显日本货币政策当前面临的复杂局面：一方面，通胀压力与财政可持续性要求央行推进加 息；另一方面，过度强势的日元可能损害出口导向型经济，而过度弱势又会加剧输入性通胀并 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global markets closed the week with cautious optimism, supported by expectations of potential easing from the Federal Reserve, despite rising bond yields and a stronger yen from the Bank of Japan's policy shift, indicating complex challenges ahead [1][5][9]. US Market Performance - Major US indices rose for the fifth consecutive day, with the S&P 500 up 0.54% to $6,849.09, the Dow Jones up 0.61% to $47,716.42, and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.78% to $25,434.89 [3]. - The rebound is characterized as tentative, driven by growing optimism regarding a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, although market uncertainty was heightened by a technical failure at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [3][8]. Global Market Trends - European markets showed slight gains, with the Stoxx 50 index benefiting from financial stocks and individual stock acquisitions, marking a positive end to a volatile November [5]. - Asian markets experienced a recovery, with many indices closing more firmly as investor sentiment improved regarding the Fed's potential rate cuts [5][8]. Key Stock Movements - Intel (INTC) surged by 10.2% amid speculation of becoming a supplier for Apple's processors [6]. - Moderna (MRNA) rose by 3.88% following strong Q3 earnings and cost-cutting measures, boosting confidence in its 2025 profit outlook [6]. - Western Digital (WDC) increased by 3.54% due to optimism over AI-driven storage demand and strong performance [6]. Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market is balancing between "policy hopes" and "real pressures," with Fed dovish signals temporarily boosting risk assets, while uncertainties in Japanese monetary policy and global yield pressures pose risks [9][10]. - The VIX index decreased by 4.99% to 16.35, indicating a slight easing in volatility, although it remains above long-term lows [6][10]. - The dollar index faces pressure due to rising rate cut expectations and declining US yields, while gold prices increased amid lower real yields and a weaker dollar [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent have stirred market expectations regarding Japan's monetary policy, emphasizing the need for the Japanese government to provide the Bank of Japan (BOJ) with sufficient policy space to stabilize inflation expectations and exchange rates [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Bessent's comments have been interpreted as external support for the BOJ to tighten monetary policy, increasing expectations for an interest rate hike [3][6]. - Following Bessent's post, the yen strengthened against the dollar, moving from 152.12 to approximately 151.54 [3]. - Despite expectations that the BOJ would maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting, Bessent's remarks have added weight to the view that a rate hike may be imminent [6][9]. Group 2: Government and Central Bank Dynamics - Bessent's statements directly challenge the monetary policy stance of Japan's new Prime Minister, who advocates for low interest rates and has previously urged the BOJ to collaborate with the government to boost demand [7]. - The Japanese government is attempting to downplay the impact of Bessent's comments, with Finance Minister Katayama asserting that the meeting did not directly address BOJ's monetary policy [8]. - There appears to be a divergence within the Japanese government regarding the implications of a weak yen, with some officials viewing it as beneficial for the economy [8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Japan's core inflation rate has remained above the BOJ's 2% target for over three years, raising concerns among policymakers about potential second-round price effects [9]. - Most economists predict that the BOJ will raise interest rates again in December or January [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that if Japan aims to correct the yen's weakness, it must consider monetary intervention or policy adjustments [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing weakness of the Japanese yen and the implications of U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's comments on Japan's monetary policy, suggesting a cautious optimism for stabilization if appropriate measures are taken [1] - The yen has depreciated significantly, with a notable drop to 153.27 against the dollar, marking an eight-month low, and the depreciation rate is at least double that of other major currencies [1] - Market expectations for a tightening of Japan's monetary policy have rapidly diminished, with the likelihood of a rate hike this month dropping from approximately 70% to around 15% [4] Group 2 - Persistent inflation remains a long-term challenge for the Bank of Japan, with the consumer price index (CPI) growth exceeding the 2% target for over three years, while real wages have generally been declining [5] - Political uncertainty in Japan, particularly following the recent elections, is influencing market expectations regarding monetary policy, as the ruling party seeks to secure enough support for leadership [4] - Treasury Secretary Yellen's softened stance compared to previous comments indicates a shift in tone regarding Japan's handling of inflation and monetary policy [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain its policy interest rate at around 0.5% for the fifth consecutive time, reflecting uncertainties in both domestic and international economic conditions, including the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy and domestic political uncertainties [1][2] Monetary Policy Decisions - The BOJ plans to sell approximately 330 billion yen worth of ETFs and 5 billion yen worth of REITs annually, indicating a gradual reduction in monetary easing and a move towards normalizing monetary policy [1] - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was not unanimous, with two members proposing an increase to 0.75% due to rising inflation risks, but this proposal was rejected by the majority [2] Economic Influences - The impact of U.S. tariffs is seen as a critical factor in determining Japan's interest rate decisions, as rising import prices could suppress consumer spending and economic growth [3] - The recent decline in U.S. labor market indicators suggests negative effects from U.S. government policies, which could lead to a recession in Japan as well [3] Inflation Trends - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, down from 3.1% the previous month, marking the first drop below 3% since November of the previous year [4] - The rise in food prices, driven by supply-side factors, remains a significant contributor to inflation, but analysts expect inflationary pressures to ease in the latter half of the year [4] Political Landscape - Japan's political situation is currently unstable, with the resignation of the current Prime Minister and the upcoming election for a new leader from within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [4] - The new party leader may seek cooperation with opposition parties on monetary and fiscal policies, potentially challenging the independence of the BOJ [4]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy is in a complex and fragile state, facing high public debt, an aging population, external trade pressures, and potential risks in the financial system, leading to concerns about a possible debt crisis similar to Greece, although short-term risks are mitigated [1] Short-term Buffer - Japan's public debt is projected to reach 1350 trillion yen, accounting for 263% of GDP, significantly higher than Greece's 142% during its crisis [2] - 87% of Japan's public debt is held by domestic institutions, with the Bank of Japan holding 46.3%, which reduces default risk due to currency sovereignty [2] - Japan's net debt level is at 114%, with interest payments projected to be 1.7% of GDP in 2025, approximately 16.5 trillion yen, much lower than Greece's 5% to 7% during its crisis [2] Long-term Challenges - Japan faces significant challenges from an aging population, with social security spending expected to reach 42 trillion yen by 2025, constituting 36% of total government spending [3] - Tax revenue is only 18.2% of GDP, insufficient to cover total expenditures, leading to a growing fiscal deficit [3] - External economic pressures include a depreciating yen increasing import costs, particularly for energy, and potential tariffs on Japanese cars from the U.S., which could result in a revenue loss of $10 billion to $15 billion [3] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Bank of Japan holds 575.9 trillion yen in government bonds, exceeding 100% of GDP, but rising interest rates have led to unrealized losses of about $200 billion [4] - Insurance companies have also faced losses of around $60 billion due to falling bond prices, impacting their willingness to purchase government bonds [4] - Japanese financial institutions are heavily involved in the $98 trillion "global dollar shadow debt," which could lead to significant losses if global liquidity tightens [4] Political Landscape and Fiscal Policy - The upcoming July Senate elections are critical for Japan's fiscal policy, with the ruling coalition potentially losing its majority, which could lead to increased fiscal deficits due to proposed tax cuts and subsidies [5] - The government faces a dilemma between maintaining fiscal discipline to uphold market confidence and providing subsidies to meet voter demands [5] - Increased defense spending is further constraining budget space, and any relaxation of fiscal discipline could trigger a sell-off in the bond market, reminiscent of the pre-crisis situation in Greece [5]