大摩闭门会：原材料、金融、交运行业更新 260114 航空业正处于上行周期，供给侧飞机交付延迟导致供给紧张，需求侧中 国航空出行渗透率提升空间大。政策鼓励文旅消费和基建投入增加，出 境游和入境游恢复强劲，都将支撑航空业发展。 预计 2026 年光伏组件和电池出口大幅增加，导致上半年电解铝市场淡 季不淡。由于没有新增产能叠加抢出口因素，整体需求旺盛，供需平衡 紧张。碳酸锂市场受环保检查和复产推迟影响，期货价格上涨。 提高透明度。这些措施都表明贷款定价将更加理性。此外，如果 PPI 持续回升， 对降低利率的社会舆论压力也会减小，从而推动贷款利率略有反弹。 摘要 贷款利率预计逐渐回升，受监管政策变化、合理定价认知提升及供需平 衡影响。央行已引导综合融资成本维持低位，并提高贷款成本透明度， PPI 回升也将减小降息压力，推动利率小幅反弹。 资本市场活跃利好金融业，促进家庭金融资产增长，资金流入保险、私 募基金等领域。新科技发展和经济企稳使资本市场成为重要抓手，对手 续费收入贡献巨大，基建需求增加为整体经济托底。 2026 年保险行业负债端新单保费和新业务价值预计强劲增长，得益于 产品吸引力提升和银保渠道大公司扩张。资 ...

以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者妙投 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 头图 | 视觉中国 A股市场情绪极度高涨，以至于政策层面不得不出手降温。 1月14日午盘后，交易所发布公告，上调融资保证金最低比例，从原来的80%提高至100%。政策一 出，市场立刻降温，指数直线"跳水"。 不仅如此，尾盘竞价时多只权重股出现巨额压单：招商银行压单金额超65亿元，紫金矿业、长江电 力、中国铝业、上汽集团、兴业银行、中国中免、中国平安、恒瑞医药、贵州茅台压单金额均超10 亿元。 监管层的态度很明确：不要"疯牛"，而是"慢牛"。 这也意味着，政策已经为市场划清了边界——指数可以向上，但行情不能单纯地靠情绪推动，投资者 必须回到基本面上。 也就是说，2026年的A股是一轮"有底的牛市"，真正的难点从来不在于判断方向，而在于判断结构。 是因为经济增长不是"全面开花"，行业间的盈利修复必然出现分化，资金也只能选择在少数既能对冲 宏观环境、又具备中长期逻辑的方向上。 这个时候，赚钱与亏钱往往只隔着一个行业选择。 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 妙投团队 编辑 | 丁萍 也就 ...

三、筹建期间接受莆田金融监管分局的监督指导，不得从事金融业务活动。 一、同意筹建中国渔业互助保险社福建分社湄洲岛营业部。 二、中国渔业互助保险社福建分社应严格按照有关法律法规要求办理筹建事宜，自批复之日起6个月内 完成筹建工作。 2026年1月5日，国家金融监督管理总局莆田监管分局发布批复称，《中国渔业互助保险社福建分社关于 设立湄洲岛营业部的请示》（渔保闽请〔2025〕11号）材料收悉。经审核，现批复如下： 四、筹建工作完成后，应按照有关规定和程序向莆田金融监管分局提交开业验收报告。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Financial Regulatory Administration has responded to various proposals from the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, outlining directions for enhancing the quality of agricultural insurance development, including revisions to the Agricultural Insurance Regulations, integration of agricultural data, and the promotion of green agricultural insurance [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Agricultural Insurance Regulation Revisions - The Financial Regulatory Administration acknowledges the importance of revising the Agricultural Insurance Regulations to adapt to changing conditions and improve the agricultural insurance system, which has been in place since March 1, 2013, and was revised in 2016 [2]. - The existing legal framework for agricultural insurance is deemed relatively complete and has proven effective in stabilizing farmers' incomes and supporting modern agricultural development [2]. Group 2: Integration of Agricultural Data - The administration is focused on enhancing the technological capabilities of agricultural insurance through the integration of various data sources, including big data, satellite remote sensing, and GPS technology, to improve underwriting and claims processes [3]. - Future efforts will involve collaboration with relevant departments to strengthen the national agricultural insurance information management platform, promoting data sharing and optimizing risk management services [3]. Group 3: Green Agricultural Insurance - The Financial Regulatory Administration is promoting the establishment of a green agricultural insurance service system aimed at supporting sustainable agricultural development and mitigating ecological risks [4]. - Insurance companies are encouraged to collaborate with research institutions to develop risk assessment models based on big data and remote sensing technology, enhancing the precision of risk evaluations [4]. Group 4: Agricultural Employment Insurance - The administration is guiding insurance companies to develop products that address employment risks, including various employer liability insurances, to support flexible employment in the agricultural sector [5][6]. - The focus is on providing better insurance coverage for flexible workers in agriculture, ensuring that insurance products are designed to meet the specific needs of different industries and job types [6].

2025年前11个月，辖区保险业实现原保险保费收入5351.21亿元，同比增长7.03%，保费收入位居全 国第二；赔款与给付支出1989.14亿元，同比增长8.48%；保险公司承保利润70.35亿元。 责任编辑：袁浩 本报讯 记者孙榕报道 日前，金融监管总局广东监管局公布了辖区保险业主要监管指标情况。数据 显示，截至2025年11月末，辖区保险业资产余额1.97万亿元，较当年初增长11.03%。其中，财产险公司 资产余额1339.52亿元，较当年初增长6.61%；人身险公司资产余额1.84万亿元，较当年初增长11.37%。 ...

日前，天津市气象局、市财政局、中国人民银行天津市分行、国家金融监督管理总局天津监管局、中国 证券监督管理委员会天津监管局、市农业农村委员会联合印发《关于加强金融气象协同联动 服务天津 经济社会高质量发展的实施意见》。 到2030年，天津将建成多层次、广覆盖、可持续的金融气象协作机制，显著提升协作效率和保障能力， 构建覆盖保险、风险减量、气候投融资等领域的金融气象产品体系，增强气候适应性金融产品供给能 力，全面提升气象服务保障经济社会高质量发展的能力。 （作者：郭玲 责任编辑：张林） 在重点任务方面，六部门将共同拓展气象指数保险服务，完善稻田蟹等气象指数保险， 探索向海洋牧 场等领域延伸；推动天气指数保险拓展至高敏感行业，促进健康气象数据在人身健康保险中的共享应 用；推进气象灾害风险减量服务嵌入保险全流程，推动气象信息员、基层网格员与金融机构人员协同联 动，提供直达终端的个性化气象服务。 天津还将加强金融业应对气候变化风险服务，推动银行机构开展气候压力测试与情景分析，评估极端天 气对金融机构及市场的潜在影响，鼓励金融机构将气候资源评估等纳入企业信贷风险评估体系。推动上 市企业可持续发展气候评估服务，建立适用的气 ...

Core Viewpoint - The yield on 10-year government bonds is expected to range between 1.7% and 2.1% by 2026, with the spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds likely returning to around 50 basis points, reflecting a comprehensive consideration of macroeconomic and policy environments, as well as changes in institutional allocation behavior [1] Group 1 - The market's primary focus since December of last year has been on the supply and demand issues related to ultra-long-term bonds [1] - The capacity of insurance funds and large banks to absorb ultra-long-term bonds has significantly lagged behind the pace of supply expansion, leading to a pronounced steepening of the yield curve during the process of rising yields [1]

| 2026年1月14日星期三 | NO.1 央行开展3586亿元7天期逆回购操作 1月13日，央行公开市场开展3586亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。Wind数据显示，当日162亿 元逆回购到期，7天期逆回购净投放3424亿元。 点评：本次逆回购操作规模较大且利率保持稳定，表明央行在维护流动性合理充裕方面态度明确。在当 前经济企稳复苏的关键阶段，此举有助于稳定市场预期，平滑资金面波动，为金融机构提供适宜的流动 性环境。 点评：增资有助于公司增强资本实力，拓展年金、养老保险等业务空间，符合行业向专业化、规模化发 展的趋势。 NO.3 张精科拟升任杭州银行行长 近日，杭州银行公告称，公司董事会同意聘任张精科为公司行长，任期至第八届董事会届满之日止，其 任职资格待监管部门核准。去年4月初，杭州银行原行长虞利明因个人原因辞任，此后该行董事长宋剑 斌代为履行行长职责。 NO.4 美联储风波叠加地缘政治不确定性，黄金白银期价再创新高 据新华社，受美国联邦储备委员会主席遭调查和地缘政治高度不确定影响，美国纽约商品交易所2月黄 金期货价格12日一度突破每盎司4640美元，3月白银期货价格一度冲上每盎司86美元，均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing economic growth, expanding domestic demand, supporting technological innovation, and stabilizing the real estate and stock markets as it prepares for the economic goals of 2026, the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2]. Economic Policy Initiatives - Various ministries are implementing proactive macroeconomic policies, including enhancing economic monitoring, improving policy tools, and ensuring effective fiscal and monetary policy coordination [2]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 will be more active, with an expanded fiscal spending plan and optimized government bond tools to enhance local financial capabilities [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, with expectations of a 25-50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio [2][3]. GDP and Fiscal Projections - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with a fiscal deficit rate holding steady at 4% and an increase in special bonds to 4.8 trillion yuan [3][4]. - The broad deficit scale is projected to rise from 11.86 trillion yuan in 2025 to approximately 12.45 trillion yuan in 2026, corresponding to a broad deficit rate increase from 8.4% to 8.5% [3]. Consumer and Investment Stimulus - The government aims to boost consumption through practical measures, including optimizing the trade-in policy for consumer goods and expanding service consumption [5][6]. - Investment will be supported through various government funding initiatives, including the issuance of special bonds and increased central budget investments [5][6]. Real Estate and Stock Market Stability - Policies will focus on stabilizing the real estate market through targeted measures, including optimizing housing purchase policies and promoting the use of existing housing for social needs [12]. - The central bank will work on mitigating financial risks in key areas and enhancing market confidence through specific monetary policy tools [13]. Emerging Industry Development - There is a strong emphasis on fostering new and emerging industries, including integrated circuits, new materials, and artificial intelligence, with significant investments planned in these sectors [8][9]. - The establishment of the National Venture Capital Guiding Fund aims to attract substantial investment in high-tech fields, with an expected total investment scale exceeding one trillion yuan [9]. Innovation-Driven Growth - The focus for 2026 will be on building an innovation-driven growth model, enhancing the modern industrial system, and promoting technological self-reliance [10].

21世纪经济报道记者 张伟泽 实习生 周静怡 香港报道 1月13日，凯基首席投资总监梁启棠在2026年环球市场展望发布会上表示，新质生产力的崛起与政策宽 松将成为内地和香港股市的核心驱动力，市场投资策略正从"防守"全面转向"进攻"。 梁启棠指出，内地和香港股市已经进入估值修复与盈利增长双轮驱动阶段。当前恒生指数预测市盈率约 13倍，若上调至13.5倍，叠加8%的盈利增长，将支撑恒指冲击30000点，潜在升幅约14%。 凯基投顾董事长朱晏民指出，随着美联储开启降息并转向宽松政策，全球资金预计将回流新兴市场。在 此背景下，估值优势显著的内地及香港股市有望直接受益。 谈及近期上市的纯大模型企业股价波动，梁启棠认为，这主要反映出港股投资者对该类公司的商业模式 与估值逻辑尚需时日熟悉与消化。 对于港股AI板块的差异化特征，梁启棠对21世纪经济报道记者补充道，港股企业布局AI多采用"技术赋 能主业"模式，也就是并非依赖AI直接创收，而是通过AI优化原有业务，进而提升整体盈利能力，这与 纯AI上市公司的盈利逻辑形成本质区别。 在技术发展层面，朱晏民对21世纪经济报道记者表示，中国正凭借其庞大的市场和百万级的年度科创人 才储 ...