日本央行委员会在即将召开的会议上面临的一个关键挑战是如何在季度经济预测中反映当前强劲的价格 趋势，而不会突然引发市场预期的逆转。 早川秀夫认为，日本央行不仅会上调本财年的通胀预测，还会上调下一财年的通胀预测。他表示，最近 的数据显示，企业出现了将成本转嫁给消费者的趋势，这些举措已不再是为了反映原材料成本上涨而做 出的一次性决定。 早川秀夫表示："令人头疼的是，如果委员会将明年的通胀预期上调至2%，这很可能被视为即将加息的 信号。所以他们可能会将通胀率预期维持在该水平以下。" 日本央行在5月份发布的最新展望报告中预测，截至3月份的本财年，核心消费者价格指数将上涨 2.2%，而未来12个月的涨幅仅为1.7%。这一预测使日本央行能够辩称，在做出加息决策时需要保持谨 慎。 日本央行的通胀预测 智通财经APP获悉，日本央行前首席经济学家早川秀夫周一表示，如果关税不确定性消退，日本的通胀 足以促使日本央行考虑最早在今年秋季加息。早川秀夫表示："通胀显然强劲。一旦就关税问题做出决 定，甚至在10月份就可能加息。" 尽管早川秀夫表示加息可能早于市场共识，但他也同意市场普遍的看法，即由于美日关税谈判仍在进行 中，日本央行委员会 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's inflation has exceeded the target set by the Bank of Japan, indicating a likely interest rate hike in the near future [1] Inflation Data - The latest Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows that consumer inflation remains significantly above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, despite some easing in June [1] - The underlying inflation rate is projected to remain around 3% by the end of the year, which is higher than the Bank of Japan's previous forecasts [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates in October, as the overall inflation indicators are still well above the central bank's May predictions [1] - The potential for a tightening cycle is supported by the persistent inflationary pressures observed in the economy [1]

Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is experiencing a moderate recovery, with improving corporate profits and stable business confidence, but signs of weakness are emerging, and economic growth is expected to slow down [3] - High uncertainty regarding trade policies, particularly U.S. tariff measures, poses a negative impact on Japan's economy, primarily affecting export companies and potentially weakening consumer confidence [3][8] Wage and Consumption - Actual wages in Japan are currently negative, significantly impacting consumption and the economy [7] - As real wages gradually improve, consumption is expected to maintain a moderate growth trend [6] Inflation and Prices - Japan's core inflation rate is slightly below the 2% target, with the gap between basic inflation and overall inflation expected to narrow [9] - Cost-push inflation is having a significant adverse effect on households, but pressures from rising import prices are anticipated to diminish [9] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan has no preset plans for interest rate hikes and will consider raising rates only when economic and price conditions align with expectations [11] - The central bank aims to achieve a 2% inflation target and will implement monetary policy based on price and economic developments [12] Currency and Bond Market - A strong yen negatively impacts export and manufacturing profits but improves household real income; stable exchange rates are crucial for market stability [14] - Long-term bond yield fluctuations can affect short- and medium-term yields, with domestic investors being the primary buyers of long-term Japanese government bonds [14] Recent Rate Decisions - The Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% in January, marking the largest increase among three hikes since March and July 2024 [16] - The central bank remains optimistic about economic and inflation conditions, with a projected CPI inflation rate of 2.4% for FY2025, up by 0.5 percentage points [16]

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 2025年以来"弱美元、强日元"背景下日元相较美元升值4%以上，成为最强G10与亚洲货币。 我们认为年初以来的日元升值来自于欧美投资者主导的基于美日长端息差收窄的交易性因素所导致，而非是基于日本方面的反映真实需求的资金流。 日元升值背后的主导原因：日本通胀→日本央行加息预期加深→日债利率上行→美日息差收窄→投机性资金做多日元 今年以来的日元升值几乎都来自于"非日本交易时间"的贡献，说明更多是海外投资者在做多日元。我们认为海外交易时间做多日元的主要动机来自于看到 了美日长端息差的收窄（美国利率明显下行、日本利率明显上行）。背后的原因在于日本高企的通胀与日本央行进一步加息的预期。 25年1月日本的综合CPI同比高达4.0%，为主要发达经济体中最高的水平，目前的日本通胀由"成本推升"与"需求拉动"共同推动，反映出日本国内高涨的通 胀压力。在此背景之下，我们认为日本央行或进一步加息，终点利率或在1.5%附近。 T正文ext 2025年以来"弱美元、强日元"背景日元成为最强货币 截至2月末，日元相较美元升值约4.4%，升值幅度明显。但是我们需要强调汇率是一个相对的概念，日 ...