青侨阳光医药投资 - 月度思考 7 月 30 日，我们参加了雪球组织的一场医药主题对谈直播，其中一个问题给我们留下了深刻的印象： " 投资医 药行业最重要的是什么？是对利润的判断，对技术的判断，还是估值高低的判断？最后怎么组合出一个医药组 合？ " 这是个很基础也很重要的问题，不同人从不同视角出发会找到不一样的答案。 对我们而言，不管是做投资还是做其它工作，最重要的一定不是具体某项技能或某些知识，因为具体必然意味 着局限，作用和意义就只能局限于该事物本身；而跳出具体的"器"或"术"，从"形而上"或者说"道"的层面去探 索，我们就能找到那些更宽泛但影响也更深远的底层要素。 比如，在我们看来，医药投资最重要的， 首先是热爱、专注、诚实开放 等普适性特性， 然后才是行业认知框 架、估值定价体系、宏观策略思维等具体的能力和方法 ，至于组合构建则是有了行业认知和估值定价判断后 水到渠成的结果。 下面，也借着对这一问题探讨的机会，梳理一遍我们认为医药投资中最重要的几件事情。 1 保持热爱，才能获得源源不断的内生动力 如果驱动我们做投资的是外在的目标——赚钱，那或许前期动力不弱，但在赚到很多钱之后就难免动力消减， 很可能会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant performance differences in the biopharmaceutical sectors across Hong Kong, A-shares, and the US, highlighting the strong recovery of Hong Kong's innovative drugs and devices, while US biotech faces severe undervaluation [1][2][19]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the Hang Seng Medical Index surged by 47.9%, while the A-share medical index rose by only 3.5%, and the S&P 500 Healthcare Index fell by 2.0% [2]. - The performance of Hong Kong's medical sector contrasts sharply with the stagnation in A-shares and the decline in US stocks, indicating a significant market recovery for Hong Kong [2][4]. - The cumulative performance of the Hang Seng Medical Index since 2019 still lags behind the XBI and A-share indices, suggesting a return to previous valuations rather than future borrowing [2][4]. Group 2: Internal Differentiation in Hong Kong - There is a stark differentiation between innovative drugs and high-cost medical devices in Hong Kong, with the median price-to-book (PB) ratio for innovative drugs increasing from 1.6-1.7 to approximately 6.0, while high-cost devices rose more modestly from 1.2 to about 2.2 [4][5]. - The high-cost medical devices experienced a median decline of over 85% but have only seen a moderate recovery of around 100%, indicating substantial room for further recovery [5][6]. Group 3: US Biotech Landscape - The US biotech sector is experiencing a severe split, with significant declines in small-cap biotech stocks, while larger companies with strong commercial logic have seen substantial gains [7][19]. - Many US biotech stocks have dropped by 80% to 90% from their 2020-2021 highs, indicating a market that has been systematically undervalued [13][20]. - The article suggests that the US biotech sector, despite its challenges, may present numerous undervalued investment opportunities if the industry outlook improves [13][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The global biopharmaceutical industry is expected to continue advancing, particularly in cell-based technologies, which could unlock significant new growth potential [16][20]. - The US biotech sector is anticipated to benefit from new industry waves, with a strong competitive advantage in pioneering innovations [20]. - The potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the coming months could provide a favorable environment for the recovery and revaluation of US biotech stocks [18][20]. Group 5: Chinese Innovative Drugs - The strong performance of Chinese innovative drugs is attributed to the ongoing industry reforms and the increasing recognition of Chinese innovations in both domestic and international markets [21][23]. - The article emphasizes that the pharmaceutical sector's dynamics favor innovative drugs over high-cost devices due to the latter's slower adoption and more complex commercialization processes [26][27]. - The company plans to adjust its portfolio by reallocating funds from fully valued Hong Kong innovative drugs to undervalued US biotech stocks and high-potential Chinese medical devices [25][31].

青侨阳光医药投资 - 投资思考 在过去几年里，一个印象深刻的教训，是不同时期、不同标的之间的强烈异质性。 这种异质性，既体现在同 一时期不同标的在基本面方面的剧烈分化，也体现在同一标的不同时期在股价主导逻辑上的强烈变迁。 这里的异质性，不管是基本面表现的分化和股价逻辑的变迁，放在特定时空下都有其自洽的合理性，因此 当 出现远超我们预期的事实时，所反映的未必是市场的非理性或世界的不正常，而更可能是我们的认知脱离了客 观真相，形成了局限偏颇。 跳出简单化的、平均化的、定式化的、教条化的思维模式，去重新审视客观事实 中所展现的混沌复杂和随机多变，或许能为日常投研带来新的视角，促进新的思考，形成新的认知。 1 横向视角下的分化： 在爆款思维里，寻找潜在的时代徽章 先看一下横截面上的分化。 下图是早年(2017年之前)获批上市的国产创新药，在2022年PDB样本医院的终端销售额，可以看到， 不同创新 药之间的营收差异很大 ：新活素成就了西藏药业，特比澳奠定了三生制药的基础，恩必普也为石药集团成功 打开了制剂业务的空间；但与此同时，曾经红极一时的今又生早已销声匿迹，优朋、可唯适、利卡汀、谊生泰 们苦苦挣扎在生存的边缘，就 ...