Core Viewpoint - The most important aspects of investing in the pharmaceutical industry are passion, focus, and honesty, which serve as foundational elements for building a robust investment framework [1][10]. Group 1: Importance of Passion - Passion provides an intrinsic motivation that sustains long-term engagement in investment, as opposed to external goals like profit [2][3]. - The transition from individual to institutional investor can enhance the sense of purpose and value recognition in pharmaceutical investments [2]. - A strong desire for a better future drives continuous learning and exploration, leading to meaningful changes in investment strategies [3]. Group 2: Focus and Comparative Advantage - The evolution of society towards greater specialization emphasizes the need for individuals to focus on their strengths to enhance efficiency and value [6]. - Accumulating comparative advantages requires a clear understanding of personal strengths and market dynamics [6]. - The optimal investment strategy involves identifying undervalued assets that the market currently overlooks but will recognize in the future [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Research and Trends - A reliable industry research framework is essential for predicting the future of companies within the pharmaceutical sector [7]. - The Chinese healthcare reform since 2015 mirrors the U.S. reforms of the 1980s, creating opportunities for innovative pharmaceutical products while pressuring traditional models [8]. - Understanding technological trends, such as advancements in antibody products and gene editing, is crucial for identifying investment opportunities [8]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Strategy - A robust valuation framework is necessary to identify truly undervalued assets rather than simply reacting to price declines [9]. - The investment focus may shift from a heavy emphasis on research frameworks to developing a more efficient investment allocation strategy [9]. - The investment strategy will prioritize long-term, value-driven investments while remaining adaptable to market changes [9]. Group 5: Continuous Improvement through Honesty - Acknowledging personal limitations and errors is vital for maintaining a realistic perspective on market risks and opportunities [10][11]. - Building a solid foundational framework allows for the effective integration of external viewpoints and insights [10][11]. - The process of learning from past experiences, especially during market downturns, can lead to significant improvements in investment strategies [12]. Group 6: Market Dynamics and Cycles - Understanding macroeconomic trends is essential for navigating the cyclical nature of the pharmaceutical sector [13]. - Recognizing the impact of market sentiment and narrative shifts on stock prices can inform better investment decisions [14][15]. - The distinction between strategic and tactical holdings is crucial for managing investment portfolios effectively [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant performance differences in the biopharmaceutical sectors across Hong Kong, A-shares, and the US, highlighting the strong recovery of Hong Kong's innovative drugs and devices, while US biotech faces severe undervaluation [1][2][19]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the Hang Seng Medical Index surged by 47.9%, while the A-share medical index rose by only 3.5%, and the S&P 500 Healthcare Index fell by 2.0% [2]. - The performance of Hong Kong's medical sector contrasts sharply with the stagnation in A-shares and the decline in US stocks, indicating a significant market recovery for Hong Kong [2][4]. - The cumulative performance of the Hang Seng Medical Index since 2019 still lags behind the XBI and A-share indices, suggesting a return to previous valuations rather than future borrowing [2][4]. Group 2: Internal Differentiation in Hong Kong - There is a stark differentiation between innovative drugs and high-cost medical devices in Hong Kong, with the median price-to-book (PB) ratio for innovative drugs increasing from 1.6-1.7 to approximately 6.0, while high-cost devices rose more modestly from 1.2 to about 2.2 [4][5]. - The high-cost medical devices experienced a median decline of over 85% but have only seen a moderate recovery of around 100%, indicating substantial room for further recovery [5][6]. Group 3: US Biotech Landscape - The US biotech sector is experiencing a severe split, with significant declines in small-cap biotech stocks, while larger companies with strong commercial logic have seen substantial gains [7][19]. - Many US biotech stocks have dropped by 80% to 90% from their 2020-2021 highs, indicating a market that has been systematically undervalued [13][20]. - The article suggests that the US biotech sector, despite its challenges, may present numerous undervalued investment opportunities if the industry outlook improves [13][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The global biopharmaceutical industry is expected to continue advancing, particularly in cell-based technologies, which could unlock significant new growth potential [16][20]. - The US biotech sector is anticipated to benefit from new industry waves, with a strong competitive advantage in pioneering innovations [20]. - The potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the coming months could provide a favorable environment for the recovery and revaluation of US biotech stocks [18][20]. Group 5: Chinese Innovative Drugs - The strong performance of Chinese innovative drugs is attributed to the ongoing industry reforms and the increasing recognition of Chinese innovations in both domestic and international markets [21][23]. - The article emphasizes that the pharmaceutical sector's dynamics favor innovative drugs over high-cost devices due to the latter's slower adoption and more complex commercialization processes [26][27]. - The company plans to adjust its portfolio by reallocating funds from fully valued Hong Kong innovative drugs to undervalued US biotech stocks and high-potential Chinese medical devices [25][31].

青侨阳光医药投资 - 投资思考 在过去几年里，一个印象深刻的教训，是不同时期、不同标的之间的强烈异质性。 这种异质性，既体现在同 一时期不同标的在基本面方面的剧烈分化，也体现在同一标的不同时期在股价主导逻辑上的强烈变迁。 这里的异质性，不管是基本面表现的分化和股价逻辑的变迁，放在特定时空下都有其自洽的合理性，因此 当 出现远超我们预期的事实时，所反映的未必是市场的非理性或世界的不正常，而更可能是我们的认知脱离了客 观真相，形成了局限偏颇。 跳出简单化的、平均化的、定式化的、教条化的思维模式，去重新审视客观事实 中所展现的混沌复杂和随机多变，或许能为日常投研带来新的视角，促进新的思考，形成新的认知。 1 横向视角下的分化： 在爆款思维里，寻找潜在的时代徽章 先看一下横截面上的分化。 下图是早年(2017年之前)获批上市的国产创新药，在2022年PDB样本医院的终端销售额，可以看到， 不同创新 药之间的营收差异很大 ：新活素成就了西藏药业，特比澳奠定了三生制药的基础，恩必普也为石药集团成功 打开了制剂业务的空间；但与此同时，曾经红极一时的今又生早已销声匿迹，优朋、可唯适、利卡汀、谊生泰 们苦苦挣扎在生存的边缘，就 ...