Workflow
青侨阳光投资交流
icon
Search documents
医药投资中重要的几件事
青侨阳光医药投资 - 月度思考 7 月 30 日,我们参加了雪球组织的一场医药主题对谈直播,其中一个问题给我们留下了深刻的印象: " 投资医 药行业最重要的是什么?是对利润的判断,对技术的判断,还是估值高低的判断?最后怎么组合出一个医药组 合? " 这是个很基础也很重要的问题,不同人从不同视角出发会找到不一样的答案。 对我们而言,不管是做投资还是做其它工作,最重要的一定不是具体某项技能或某些知识,因为具体必然意味 着局限,作用和意义就只能局限于该事物本身;而跳出具体的"器"或"术",从"形而上"或者说"道"的层面去探 索,我们就能找到那些更宽泛但影响也更深远的底层要素。 比如,在我们看来,医药投资最重要的, 首先是热爱、专注、诚实开放 等普适性特性, 然后才是行业认知框 架、估值定价体系、宏观策略思维等具体的能力和方法 ,至于组合构建则是有了行业认知和估值定价判断后 水到渠成的结果。 下面,也借着对这一问题探讨的机会,梳理一遍我们认为医药投资中最重要的几件事情。 1 保持热爱,才能获得源源不断的内生动力 如果驱动我们做投资的是外在的目标——赚钱,那或许前期动力不弱,但在赚到很多钱之后就难免动力消减, 很可能会 ...
国创逻辑正兑现,美股生科待重估
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant performance differences in the biopharmaceutical sectors across Hong Kong, A-shares, and the US, highlighting the strong recovery of Hong Kong's innovative drugs and devices, while US biotech faces severe undervaluation [1][2][19]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the Hang Seng Medical Index surged by 47.9%, while the A-share medical index rose by only 3.5%, and the S&P 500 Healthcare Index fell by 2.0% [2]. - The performance of Hong Kong's medical sector contrasts sharply with the stagnation in A-shares and the decline in US stocks, indicating a significant market recovery for Hong Kong [2][4]. - The cumulative performance of the Hang Seng Medical Index since 2019 still lags behind the XBI and A-share indices, suggesting a return to previous valuations rather than future borrowing [2][4]. Group 2: Internal Differentiation in Hong Kong - There is a stark differentiation between innovative drugs and high-cost medical devices in Hong Kong, with the median price-to-book (PB) ratio for innovative drugs increasing from 1.6-1.7 to approximately 6.0, while high-cost devices rose more modestly from 1.2 to about 2.2 [4][5]. - The high-cost medical devices experienced a median decline of over 85% but have only seen a moderate recovery of around 100%, indicating substantial room for further recovery [5][6]. Group 3: US Biotech Landscape - The US biotech sector is experiencing a severe split, with significant declines in small-cap biotech stocks, while larger companies with strong commercial logic have seen substantial gains [7][19]. - Many US biotech stocks have dropped by 80% to 90% from their 2020-2021 highs, indicating a market that has been systematically undervalued [13][20]. - The article suggests that the US biotech sector, despite its challenges, may present numerous undervalued investment opportunities if the industry outlook improves [13][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The global biopharmaceutical industry is expected to continue advancing, particularly in cell-based technologies, which could unlock significant new growth potential [16][20]. - The US biotech sector is anticipated to benefit from new industry waves, with a strong competitive advantage in pioneering innovations [20]. - The potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the coming months could provide a favorable environment for the recovery and revaluation of US biotech stocks [18][20]. Group 5: Chinese Innovative Drugs - The strong performance of Chinese innovative drugs is attributed to the ongoing industry reforms and the increasing recognition of Chinese innovations in both domestic and international markets [21][23]. - The article emphasizes that the pharmaceutical sector's dynamics favor innovative drugs over high-cost devices due to the latter's slower adoption and more complex commercialization processes [26][27]. - The company plans to adjust its portfolio by reallocating funds from fully valued Hong Kong innovative drugs to undervalued US biotech stocks and high-potential Chinese medical devices [25][31].
估值通道与估值跃迁
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a stable and self-consistent valuation system for guiding investment decisions, despite the inherent subjectivity and variability in company valuations [1][2]. Group 1: Valuation Channels - Companies' valuations fluctuate within defined "valuation channels" during stable market conditions, reflecting their inherent quality and market perceptions [3][4]. - The concept of valuation channels allows investors to compare historical stock prices against these channels, revealing market sentiment shifts and potential investment opportunities [8][9]. Group 2: Valuation Transitions Triggered by Business Dynamics - Valuation transitions can occur when there are significant changes in market expectations regarding a company's growth potential, leading to rapid valuation adjustments [9][10]. - Historical examples illustrate that companies can experience valuation jumps or drops based on internal business developments or external market conditions, often independent of actual performance changes [12][13]. Group 3: External Market Influences on Valuation - External market conditions can significantly impact company valuations, with examples showing how market sentiment can lead to drastic valuation changes, even when a company's fundamentals remain stable [14][16]. - The article discusses how macroeconomic factors and market sentiment shifts can create opportunities for identifying undervalued companies during market downturns [19][20]. Group 4: Case Studies and Future Outlook - The article reviews specific cases in the Hong Kong and U.S. biotech sectors, highlighting the potential for significant valuation recovery in companies with strong growth prospects despite recent market challenges [21][22]. - It suggests that while some sectors may appear overvalued, others, particularly those with solid fundamentals, may present attractive investment opportunities as market conditions improve [26][30].
PD-1/VEGF的大额对外授权对FIC药企的影响
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant potential of China's innovative drug industry, particularly highlighted by the recent large-scale licensing deal involving innovative drugs [1] - The innovative drug sector is characterized by a "bet first, collapse later" nature, making it suitable to view through a "cycle" perspective, where the most attractive aspect is the value escalation cycle of a technology or product transitioning from obscurity to a major market player [1][2] - The value escalation cycle for PD1/CTLA4 and PD1/VEGF dual antibodies began around 2020/2021, with expectations that this cycle will continue at least until 2027/2028, barring any major setbacks [2] Group 2 - The comparison between Sanofi's 707 and Ivosidenib indicates that while there may be some local improvements, it does not significantly differentiate itself enough to disrupt the value escalation cycle of Ivosidenib [4] - The introduction of Sanofi's 707 may have short-term negative impacts on the original drug companies in Hong Kong, as it reduces the potential acquisition interest from partners like SUMMIT, but long-term effects may be limited [5][6] Group 3 - The original drug companies in Hong Kong are expected to see value escalation primarily through three phases, with the current phase being the second stage that has been active for 4-5 years and is projected to continue for another 2-3 years [7][8] - The market's perception of the potential value of Ivosidenib in various cancers appears to be underappreciated, with estimates suggesting that its overseas licensing could support a market value of approximately 320-480 billion HKD for the licensing party [8][9] Group 4 - The future value expansion for companies hinges on their ability to ignite the "third stage rocket," which involves developing universally applicable therapies that can enhance the efficacy of PD1 dual antibodies [10][11] - Companies are already pursuing clinical trials for TROP2*NECTIN4 dual antibody ADCs and mRNA tumor vaccines, indicating a proactive approach to maintaining value escalation in the face of potential market shifts [11][13]
“聚焦”的意义和“复用”的魅力
Group 1 - The article discusses the Lanchester's Law and its application in competitive strategies, emphasizing that the difference in combat power is proportional to the square of the initial strength difference in a multi-party conflict [1][10] - In a scenario of comprehensive warfare, the stronger party becomes increasingly dominant, while the weaker party faces greater challenges, leading to a significant power gap over time [3][10] - The article highlights that the weaker party can achieve a turnaround by avoiding direct confrontation and employing a strategy of concentrating forces to defeat smaller enemy units [3][10] Group 2 - The article illustrates the concept of "concentrating forces to defeat each separately," showing how a weaker team can gradually improve its position through strategic victories [6][10] - It discusses two perspectives on why the stronger party becomes stronger and the weaker party weaker in comprehensive warfare, focusing on resource advantages and strategic choices [8][10] - The article suggests that in many segments of the pharmaceutical industry, companies that were previously at a disadvantage can seize new opportunities through policies, technologies, or market changes, thus becoming potential leaders in emerging niches [9][10] Group 3 - The understanding of Lanchester's Law includes the importance of building competitive advantages and the need for companies to either push for comprehensive solutions or carve out niches where they can establish superiority [10][11] - The article emphasizes that the optimal strategic choices for a company may change over time, depending on its development stage and the competitive landscape [11][12] - It suggests that companies should focus on areas where they can build unique advantages rather than spreading resources too thinly across multiple fronts [12][13] Group 4 - The article indicates a preference for emerging leaders in new markets or product categories over traditional leaders, especially in a rapidly changing pharmaceutical industry [12][14] - It discusses the importance of strategic focus for both established leaders and new entrants, highlighting that even large companies need to enhance their ability to concentrate resources in key areas [14][15] - The article concludes that effective resource allocation is crucial for both investment activities and competitive strategies, advocating for a balance between focus and diversification [16][17]
对“降低美国药价30%-80%行政令”的一些看法
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of Trump's announcement regarding the "Most Favored Nation's Policy" on the U.S. pharmaceutical pricing system, suggesting a need for observation to determine whether this represents a systemic shift or a temporary disruption [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Pharmaceutical Pricing System - The U.S. pharmaceutical pricing is notably higher due to a highly market-driven system with minimal government intervention compared to other countries [2]. - The presence of commercial insurance in the U.S. benefits from high drug prices, as these companies profit from rebates negotiated with pharmaceutical firms, leading to a preference for maintaining elevated nominal prices [2]. Group 2: Potential Outcomes of Policy Changes - One scenario suggests that if Trump successfully drives deep reforms in the U.S. healthcare system, it could have profound implications for both the U.S. and global pharmaceutical industries [3][4]. - However, without the establishment of a regulatory body akin to a national pricing authority, systemic changes are unlikely, and any reforms may face significant opposition from the pharmaceutical and insurance sectors [4][6]. Group 3: Impact on Biotech Innovation - The current high pricing environment supports innovation in the U.S. biotech sector; any forced reduction in profit margins could diminish the incentive for high-risk investments and innovation [7]. - A decrease in profit expectations may lead U.S. pharmaceutical companies to adopt more cost-effective strategies, potentially reshaping the biotech landscape and suppressing industry growth for an extended period [7].
“内稳外险”,医药行业再梳理与思路更新
青侨阳光医药投资 - 月度思考 本文为青侨阳光 2025 年 3 月报,投资思考部分节选。 1 医药行业继续稳健增长, 国产创新继续强劲高增。 我们 汇总统计市值超20亿的港股医药公司的年度业绩 ,2024年合计营收增速为5.5%,合计净利(剔除金斯瑞解 除传奇合并带来的一次性虚拟利润)增速为13.0%, 继续保持稳健增长 。 在总量营收持续高增的背后,国产创新药的出海业务爆发与盈利能力改善尤其值得重视。 盈利方面,港股18A两家代表性的头部药企双双触及盈利临界点: 出海方面,以2019年率先实现美国成功上市的泽布替尼为例,2020-2024年海外营收折合人民币分别实现 了1亿、7亿、29亿、78亿、172亿元营收,增长相当迅猛。 并不在上述18A产品营收统计范围内的西达基奥仑赛,2022年美国获批上市后,2022-2024年美国营收折 合人民币分别实现9亿、35亿、69亿元营收,增长速度同样令人印象深刻。 国内创新药市场约为全球创新药市场的4%-5%,意味着海外市场是国内市场近20倍体量,就算只能做欧 日等非美市场,也有10倍+的潜在空间,这是相当令人振奋的潜在增量空间。 百济神州,2024年的GAAP利润 ...
投资“现在不认但未来不得不认”的生物医药资产
青侨阳光医药投资 - 月度思考 如果用典型的市场风格分类标准去衡量,青侨基金应该属于偏左侧逆向的长线成长风格。在多数情况下,青侨 基金首先寻求的是在左侧去逆向布局尚未得到市场广泛关注的非主流标的,或者已经得到关注但投资人依然半 信半疑的非共识标的。 青侨基金最核心的投资策略,就是寻找和投资"现在市场不认但未来不得不认"的生物医药资产。 辨别"现在市 场不认"很容易,难的是如何辨别"未来不得不认"。 下面是我们对这个问题的一些思考。 1 未来不得不认的背后, 要么是内生价值的爆发成长, 要么是市场定价的严重低估。 资本定价模型是当代资产管理的核心底座,它的核心思想是预期收益与潜在风险之间的正相关关系,预期收益 越高的资产往往潜在风险也越大,用公式表示就是"某资产的预期收益率=无风险利率+该资产承担额外风险的 收益率补偿"。这很合直觉,对大类资产的历史回报也有很好的解释力,比如过去10多年,国内股票基金的潜 在风险最大,但长期年化收益率也最高 (10%-15%);债券基金的潜在风险明显更低,但年化收益率也会更低 (比如5%-6%);货币基金的潜在风险是最低的,对应的年化收益率也最低(比如2%-3%)。 但这只对长 ...
中国医药行业现状: 供给、需求和估值
现在回头看,人口老龄化在长尺度上确实带来了持续的超额动力,和科技突破以及支付能力提升一起,推动卫 生支出占中国GDP的比重从以前的3%提高到现在的超过7%,预计10年内会进一步提升到10%以上。但医药的 需求优势是个相对优势,随着中国名义GDP的持续减速,过去几年医药行业的整体营收增速也在不可避免地趋 势性放缓。 反而是 国内医药的供给端,凭借成功的转型升级释放工程师红利优势,开始出现越来越明显的加速突破迹象 。当前阶段,中国医药行业相比海外的供给优势明显强化,而需求优势明显弱化,这对我们的投资方向选择可 能有着较为重要的影响。 青侨阳光医药投资 - 月度思考 几年前,当大家谈起投资医药的逻辑时,最常听到的理由是人口老龄化,因为老龄人口占比提升会给医药带来 源源不断的需求增强。 以下图统计的公司为例,用2023年的研发开支去除以在研管线数量得出的每10亿美元支撑的研发管线数,欧美 头部药企普遍是15-16款左右,日本药企典型是30+款,而中国药企平均有100+款,超过欧美MNC(跨国公司)的 6倍!考虑国际多中心临床的规模和占比等,日本药企或许更具可比性,但就算跟日本企业比,中国药企的成 本效率优势依然十分巨 ...
年度思路梳理:医药行业与青侨基金
青侨阳光医药投资 - 年度梳理 1 行业总量: 营收总量有望继续超额增长, 利润水平有望继续抬升。 首先,是医药行业的营收增速与行业空间。 各国统计局披露的卫生总费用增速大体等同医药行业总盘子增速,而 欧美日等发达国家的年均卫生总费用增 速相比名义GDP,长期维持1.2-1.4倍超额 。 中国过去10多年也保持类似超额增速,比如2019-2023年中国名义GDP年化增速是6.3%,而卫生总费用年化增 速是8.3%、医保基金收入年化增速是8.2%,也有1.3倍超额。随着新冠扰动带来高基数效应的逐渐消除,预计 2025年开始国内医药总盘子将恢复到1.2-1.4倍名义GDP的超额增速。 其中,医药制造业因为需要消化以药养医的历史包袱(药占比持续回落),增速会略低于卫生总费用。参考商务 部的医药流通统计分析报告,2019-2023年这一增速预计接近5%-6%。假定相信未来几年国内经济能够企稳 (GDP增速能守住4%以上),预计国内的卫生总费用会恢复到每年6%-8%增长,医药制造业会恢复到每年 5%-6%增长,但这里的增速差主要由一些辅助性、利益型品种所承担,拥有明确临床疗效的药械作为整体会有 更好的整体性增长。 至于 ...