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哈尔斯(002615):杯壶行业龙头 制造与品牌协同并进
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-27 12:35
Core Viewpoint - Hars is a leading company in the domestic cup and thermos industry, with a strong focus on both OEM/ODM and proprietary brand businesses, expecting significant revenue growth and profit increase from 2021 to 2024 [1][4]. Industry Overview - The cup and thermos industry is transitioning from durable goods to fashionable consumer products, with significant growth potential in China, which is a major production country [2]. - From 2017 to 2021, China's thermos cup production grew at a CAGR of 7.4%, increasing from 490 million to 650 million units [2]. - Domestic sales of thermos cups in 2021 were approximately 150 million units, with a CAGR of 5.1% from 2017 to 2021, indicating room for growth compared to mature markets [2]. - The current domestic ownership rate of thermos cups is only 0.5 units per person, significantly lower than Japan (1.5 units) and the U.S. (0.68 units), suggesting potential for increased consumption [2]. - The concentration ratio in the U.S. online market (CR4 at 45%) is much higher than in China (CR4 at 20%), indicating further consolidation opportunities in the domestic market [2]. Company Competitive Advantages - Hars has established solid partnerships with leading international brands such as YETI and PMI, leveraging their influence in developed markets to support industry upgrades [3]. - The company has enhanced its smart manufacturing capabilities and established a fully digitalized operation system, creating an efficient closed-loop from R&D to sales [3]. - Hars is transitioning from a "cup manufacturer" to a "lifestyle brand operator," with a focus on building brand recognition through various marketing strategies [4]. Proprietary Brand Development - By 2024, Hars expects that the revenue from its proprietary brands will account for over 20% of total sales, with continuous improvement in profitability [4]. - The company is actively engaging in multi-channel marketing and innovative promotional strategies to strengthen its brand presence [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Hars anticipates a decline in profit margins in Q3 2025 due to production ramp-up in Thailand, but expects profitability to recover by 2026 [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are expected to be 140 million, 270 million, and 370 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.30, 0.58, and 0.78 yuan [4]. - The estimated reasonable valuation for the company is between 8.77 and 9.94 yuan per share, with a PE ratio of 15-17 times in 2026 [4].
哈尔斯(002615):杯壶行业龙头,制造与品牌协同并进
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-27 11:36
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [6]. Core Insights - Hars is a leading company in the domestic cup and kettle industry, focusing on both OEM/ODM and proprietary brand businesses, with a projected revenue CAGR of 25% from 2021 to 2024, reaching 3.3 billion yuan, and net profit increasing from 136 million yuan to 287 million yuan by 2024 [1][22]. - The cup and kettle industry is evolving from durable goods to fashionable consumer products, with significant growth potential in both domestic and international markets [1][2]. - The company has established strong partnerships with international brands like YETI and PMI, enhancing its competitive advantage through advanced manufacturing capabilities and a robust customer base [3][54]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hars, founded in 1996, is a prominent manufacturer of stainless steel vacuum insulated containers, with a comprehensive supply chain from R&D to production [14][22]. - The company operates both OEM/ODM and proprietary brand businesses, with brands including Hars and SIGG targeting different consumer segments [14][70]. Industry Analysis - The global insulated cup market is estimated to exceed 37 billion USD, with North America being a major demand region [33]. - The domestic insulated cup market is projected to surpass 400 billion yuan, indicating substantial growth potential compared to mature markets like Japan and the USA [37][40]. Competitive Advantages - Hars maintains a leading position in R&D and production capabilities, with a focus on digital transformation and smart manufacturing [3][55]. - The company has a solid foundation of long-term partnerships with major international clients, which supports its market expansion [54][65]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 24.07 billion yuan in 2023 to 33.32 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit forecast of 250 million yuan in 2023, declining to 141 million yuan in 2025 due to transitional production impacts [5][22]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.30 yuan, with a PE ratio of 27, indicating a reasonable valuation range of 8.77 to 9.94 yuan per share [4][6].