文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 把10到50之间给它均匀的分成100份， 就会发现20倍的估值大致处于25%的位 置，这就是空间百分位。 这两种计算方法哪一种用的会更多? 般是时间百分位。 绝大多数金融终端上所提供的百分位数 据，指的是时间百分位。 所以它是按照估值所出现的时间分布来 计算的，因此称为时间百分位。 (2) 空间百分位 空间百分位是指，在历史最低到最高估 值之间，当前的估值处在什么位置。 比如过去5年，指数历史最低估值为10倍 市盈率,最高达到50倍市盈率,而当前 处在20倍。 日前 「소手Ⅱ昆」小程序 北上线了 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of percentile as a reference indicator when investing in index funds, suggesting that low percentile investments may present potential opportunities [1][6]. Summary by Sections Percentile Types - There are two types of percentiles: 1. **Time Percentile**: Indicates the current valuation's position within historical valuations over a specific time frame. For example, if the current valuation is lower than 90% of the valuations in the last five years, it is at the 10th percentile [3]. 2. **Space Percentile**: Represents the current valuation's position between the historical minimum and maximum valuations. For instance, if the historical minimum P/E ratio is 10 and the maximum is 50, a current P/E of 20 would place it at the 25th percentile [4]. Practical Investment Considerations - Time percentiles are more commonly used in actual investments, but relying solely on percentiles carries risks [5]. Risks of Relying Solely on Percentiles - **Risk 1**: Short index launch time can lead to low historical valuation reference value. For example, newly established indices may not provide a reliable bottom valuation due to limited historical data [9][10]. - **Risk 2**: Changes in index rules can significantly alter valuation data. For instance, the change in the China Securities 100 index from a market-cap-based selection to a leading strategy can affect historical valuation references [12][13]. - **Risk 3**: Different weighting algorithms for valuations can lead to changes in percentiles. For example, the China Securities Dividend Index's shift from market-cap weighting to dividend yield weighting has resulted in discrepancies in reported P/E ratios [14][18]. - **Risk 4**: Significant fluctuations in earnings can cause P/E percentiles to become misleading. For instance, if a company's earnings surge, the P/E ratio may appear low, creating a "value trap" scenario [20][21]. Conclusion - Investments with low percentiles are worth researching, but low percentiles do not guarantee undervaluation. Factors such as short historical data, changes in index rules, different valuation algorithms, and earnings volatility can lead to percentile failures, necessitating a detailed analysis of each situation [25][26].