文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 这个逻辑也很容易理解：一轮牛熊市7-10 年,如果只看2-3年数据,容易盲人摸象。 解决方法: 找同风格的、其他历史比较长 的指数，作为参考。 过，对历史数据的参考，最好包括历史的 几轮牛熊市。 一般同风格品种，涨跌上会比较相似。历 史的高低估阶段会相对重合。 例如是小盘股，可以参考中证1000;成长 风格，可以参考成长指数。 来模拟以前牛熊市大致的涨跌幅度。 (2) 指数规则修改，带来估值变化。 此时看百分位意义也不大。 例如中证100，名称修改为中证A100。从 原来按照市值的大小挑选股票，变成类似 于A500的龙头策略。 估值就发生较大变化。 再比如 H股指数,早些年是40只股票,金 融行业占比高。后来改为50只股票，纳入 了不少互联网公司。 规则修改后，以前的历史估值也就失去了 参考价值。 解决方法: 按照新规则，去计算以前的估 值数据。 早期红利指数是市值加权，也就是哪个股 票市值大，在指数中占比高。 当时的红利指数，银行股占比能达到60% 以上。 现在红利指数,是股息率加权。哪个股息 率高，在指数中占比高。 (3) 指数估值加权算法不同，带来百分位 发生变化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, emphasizing the importance of corporate earnings growth as a key driver for market recovery and the cyclical nature of economic conditions affecting market performance [6][28][30]. Market Overview - A-shares have shown resilience, with an overall increase and a rating of 4.9 stars, indicating limited downside potential [2][29]. - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices have seen slight increases, while mid and small-cap indices like the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have performed better [3]. - The healthcare sector remains strong, while the banking index recently hit a historical high before experiencing a pullback [4]. Economic Cycles and Market Behavior - The duration of bull and bear markets is often linked to economic cycles, with prolonged bear markets typically occurring during economic downturns [8][14]. - Historical examples from the U.S. stock market illustrate that long bear markets can last up to a decade during economic recessions, while shorter bear markets can occur during economic expansions [16][23]. - The article notes that the current economic downturn in A-shares is largely due to significant deleveraging in the real estate sector, which has affected consumer spending and overall economic health [25][27]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current economic downturn will eventually end, as economic cycles are characterized by fluctuations rather than prolonged stagnation [28]. - Indicators such as corporate earnings growth are crucial for assessing market recovery, with A-shares showing a year-on-year earnings growth of approximately 4-5% in Q1, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index saw a more pronounced recovery with a 16% growth [28]. - Different sectors are expected to recover at varying rates, with technology and healthcare showing early signs of recovery compared to consumer sectors [28][32]. Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes that the market's upward potential relies on corporate earnings recovery, with a need for sustained growth to drive valuations higher [30][31]. - The current market rating of 5 stars suggests a strong valuation floor, with institutional support likely to mitigate volatility during downturns [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of percentile as a reference indicator when investing in index funds, suggesting that low percentile investments may present potential opportunities [1][6]. Summary by Sections Percentile Types - There are two types of percentiles: 1. **Time Percentile**: Indicates the current valuation's position within historical valuations over a specific time frame. For example, if the current valuation is lower than 90% of the valuations in the last five years, it is at the 10th percentile [3]. 2. **Space Percentile**: Represents the current valuation's position between the historical minimum and maximum valuations. For instance, if the historical minimum P/E ratio is 10 and the maximum is 50, a current P/E of 20 would place it at the 25th percentile [4]. Practical Investment Considerations - Time percentiles are more commonly used in actual investments, but relying solely on percentiles carries risks [5]. Risks of Relying Solely on Percentiles - **Risk 1**: Short index launch time can lead to low historical valuation reference value. For example, newly established indices may not provide a reliable bottom valuation due to limited historical data [9][10]. - **Risk 2**: Changes in index rules can significantly alter valuation data. For instance, the change in the China Securities 100 index from a market-cap-based selection to a leading strategy can affect historical valuation references [12][13]. - **Risk 3**: Different weighting algorithms for valuations can lead to changes in percentiles. For example, the China Securities Dividend Index's shift from market-cap weighting to dividend yield weighting has resulted in discrepancies in reported P/E ratios [14][18]. - **Risk 4**: Significant fluctuations in earnings can cause P/E percentiles to become misleading. For instance, if a company's earnings surge, the P/E ratio may appear low, creating a "value trap" scenario [20][21]. Conclusion - Investments with low percentiles are worth researching, but low percentiles do not guarantee undervaluation. Factors such as short historical data, changes in index rules, different valuation algorithms, and earnings volatility can lead to percentile failures, necessitating a detailed analysis of each situation [25][26].