Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of understanding investment strategies for index funds to achieve good returns [2] - A free course is offered to help investors learn index fund investment techniques, along with course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2] Group 2 - The article highlights three situations where valuation percentiles may fail as a judgment indicator in investments [6] - Situation one involves significant earnings volatility, which can lead to ineffective price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios; in such cases, price-to-book (P/B) ratios can be referenced as an alternative [7][8] - Situation two pertains to indices with a short historical record, where low valuation percentiles may not indicate undervaluation due to insufficient historical data [10] - Situation three addresses changes in index rules, which can significantly alter valuation data; for example, the changes in the China Securities 100 index in June 2022 led to a shift in P/E ratios from around 10 to 13-14 [11][12]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 基金投顾，顾名思义，就是基金的投资顾问。 很多行业都有顾问，特别是一些专业性很强的行业。 例如， 是如何通过"投"和"顾"，帮助投资者获得好收益的呢？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了基金投顾的方方面面。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 基金投顾 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 • 看病吃药，需要医生，医生就是顾问； • 有法律问题，需要律师，律师也是顾问。 基金投顾是什么? 有什么伺用? 长按添加@课程小助手,回复「基金投顾」 免费领取《螺丝钉基金投顾入门课》课程 更有课程笔记、思维导图,帮你快速了解基金投顾 其余有风险,投资需谨 基金投资也是如此。 基金投顾的诞生，正是为了解决基金行业存在的"基金赚钱，基民不赚钱"的问题。 那么，基金投顾有哪些优势？ //////// #螺丝钉小知识 银行螺丝钉 估值百分位，在哪些情况下可能 会失效? 投资中,估值百分位只是一种辅助的判断 指标，在以下三种情况，可能会失效。 r情况—： 盈利波动比较大 市盈率=市值/盈利。 当盈利出现较大波动时，会导致市盈率的 百分位 ...

Group 1 - Funds are suitable investment products for ordinary people [2] - The article suggests that new investors should consider what type of funds are most appropriate for them [2] - It emphasizes the importance of psychological preparation before long-term investments [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the relevance of historical data when evaluating valuation percentiles [5] - It highlights that the choice of 3-year, 5-year, or 10-year data should depend on whether it covers extreme bear markets [5] - Specific examples of significant bear markets in A-shares are mentioned, such as the period from 2012 to 2014, which marked the lowest valuations for large-cap stocks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of percentile as a reference indicator when investing in index funds, suggesting that low percentile investments may present potential opportunities. However, it also warns that relying solely on percentiles can carry risks due to various factors affecting their reliability [1][4]. Summary by Sections Types of Percentiles - There are two types of percentiles: 1. **Time Percentile**: Indicates the current valuation's position within historical valuations over a specific period. For example, if the current valuation is lower than 90% of the valuations in the last five years, it is at the 10th percentile [2]. 2. **Space Percentile**: Represents the current valuation's position between the historical minimum and maximum valuations. For instance, if the historical minimum P/E ratio is 10 and the maximum is 50, a current P/E of 20 would place it at the 25th percentile [2]. Risks of Solely Relying on Percentiles - Relying only on percentiles can lead to several risks: - **Short Index History**: If an index has only been established for a few years, its historical valuation reference may be limited, making it difficult to determine true undervaluation [5][6]. - **Changes in Index Rules**: Modifications to index rules can significantly alter valuation data, rendering previous historical valuations less relevant [7][8]. - **Different Valuation Weighting Algorithms**: Variations in how valuations are calculated can lead to discrepancies in percentiles. For example, changes in weighting from market cap to dividend yield can affect perceived valuations [9][10]. - **Profit Volatility**: Fluctuations in company earnings can distort P/E ratios, leading to misleading percentile readings. For instance, a surge in earnings can lower the P/E ratio, suggesting undervaluation when it may not be the case [11][12]. Conclusion - While valuation percentiles can provide valuable insights, low percentiles do not guarantee that an investment is undervalued. Factors such as short historical data, rule changes, different weighting methods, and earnings volatility must be considered for a comprehensive analysis [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of percentile as a reference indicator when investing in index funds, suggesting that low percentile investments may present potential opportunities [1][6]. Summary by Sections Percentile Types - There are two types of percentiles: 1. **Time Percentile**: Indicates the current valuation's position within historical valuations over a specific time frame. For example, if the current valuation is lower than 90% of the valuations in the last five years, it is at the 10th percentile [3]. 2. **Space Percentile**: Represents the current valuation's position between the historical minimum and maximum valuations. For instance, if the historical minimum P/E ratio is 10 and the maximum is 50, a current P/E of 20 would place it at the 25th percentile [4]. Practical Investment Considerations - Time percentiles are more commonly used in actual investments, but relying solely on percentiles carries risks [5]. Risks of Relying Solely on Percentiles - **Risk 1**: Short index launch time can lead to low historical valuation reference value. For example, newly established indices may not provide a reliable bottom valuation due to limited historical data [9][10]. - **Risk 2**: Changes in index rules can significantly alter valuation data. For instance, the change in the China Securities 100 index from a market-cap-based selection to a leading strategy can affect historical valuation references [12][13]. - **Risk 3**: Different weighting algorithms for valuations can lead to changes in percentiles. For example, the China Securities Dividend Index's shift from market-cap weighting to dividend yield weighting has resulted in discrepancies in reported P/E ratios [14][18]. - **Risk 4**: Significant fluctuations in earnings can cause P/E percentiles to become misleading. For instance, if a company's earnings surge, the P/E ratio may appear low, creating a "value trap" scenario [20][21]. Conclusion - Investments with low percentiles are worth researching, but low percentiles do not guarantee undervaluation. Factors such as short historical data, changes in index rules, different valuation algorithms, and earnings volatility can lead to percentile failures, necessitating a detailed analysis of each situation [25][26].