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中金:维持保利物业(06049)跑赢行业评级 目标价42.7港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 02:41
Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the earnings forecast for Poly Property (06049) and keeps the "outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 42.7, corresponding to a 13x P/E for 2026 and a 22% upside potential [1] Group 1: Strategic Layout and Growth - The "big property" strategic layout has achieved breadth, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on operational focus and industrial upgrades [2] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," the company has proactively laid out the "big property" strategy, achieving over 25% compound growth in property management revenue from public services and commercial office sectors from 2021 to 2024 [2] - By 2024, the managed area for non-residential properties is expected to reach 510 million square meters, with non-residential property management revenue accounting for over 40% of total property management revenue [2] - The company's market-oriented external expansion capability and industry coverage are leading, with an annualized contract amount for non-residential external expansion expected to be RMB 2.75 billion in 2024, covering over 40 non-residential sectors [2] - The company has essentially achieved the layout and external expansion capability at the "big property" level, with future development transitioning from breadth and width to deep operations, aiming for further elevation in revenue structure, profitability, and operational capability [2] Group 2: Scenic Area Operations - Scenic area operations present good growth potential and financial models, with property management companies expected to upgrade from traditional management fees to operational revenue sharing through integrated management and operations [2] - The tourism industry is expected to continue its strong growth, with the China Tourism Research Institute predicting that cultural and tourism-related consumption will exceed RMB 10 trillion by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 8%-10% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2] - For example, in the Shenzhen Xichong project, property management fee revenue is around RMB 10 million, with relatively low gross margins; however, integrating ticket revenue sharing and secondary consumption from tourists is expected to significantly enhance project gross margins [2] - By the end of 2024, Poly Property is expected to have served over 100 A-level scenic area projects, including three operational management projects, with ongoing development of benchmark projects providing a solid foundation for further acquisition of scenic area operation projects and creating an integrated service system for scenic area operations and urban management [2]