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曹操出行(02643):短期看盈利节点,长期看Robotaxi生态
智通财经网· 2025-06-27 10:15
Core Viewpoint - Caocao Travel's stock price drop on its debut reflects structural challenges in the ride-hailing industry, yet the company is pursuing a unique path to overcome these obstacles [1][2] Group 1: Reasons for Stock Price Drop - The stock price drop is attributed to both internal and external factors, including a persistently low liquidity in the Hong Kong market, which has negatively impacted valuations of unprofitable tech growth stocks [2] - The ride-hailing industry faces significant profitability challenges due to multiple cost pressures, including regulatory limits on platform commissions, high driver costs, and substantial fixed costs related to vehicle acquisition and maintenance [2] - Despite achieving positive gross margins and adjusted EBITDA, Caocao Travel has accumulated losses exceeding 8.2 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024, leading some investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach [2] Group 2: Unique Solutions by Caocao Travel - Caocao Travel differentiates itself by leveraging Geely Group's ecosystem to integrate supply chains and reconstruct unit economics, focusing on customized vehicles designed specifically for ride-hailing scenarios [3] - The customized vehicles, developed in collaboration with Geely, feature cost-saving designs and enhanced durability, which improve driver experience and operational efficiency [3] - Financial indicators show improvement, with gross margins projected to rise from -4.4% in 2022 to 8.1% in 2024, and adjusted EBITDA rates improving from -10.1% in 2022 to 2.6% in 2024 as the share of customized vehicle orders increases [3][4] Group 3: Future Prospects and Strategic Positioning - Caocao Travel is positioned uniquely for the Robotaxi era, being the only company in China with full-stack capabilities in customized vehicle manufacturing, autonomous driving technology, and ride-hailing platform operations [5] - The existing customized vehicle ecosystem serves as an ideal training ground for Robotaxi operations, with plans to launch L4 autonomous driving customized Robotaxi models by the end of 2026 [5] - The backing of strategic investors like Mercedes-Benz and Guoxuan High-Tech highlights Caocao Travel's value as a hub for smart electric mobility, indicating a shift from a ride-hailing platform to a smart transportation technology ecosystem [6] Group 4: Conclusion - The volatility in the Hong Kong market and the inherent low-profit characteristics of the industry are the backdrop for Caocao Travel's stock price drop, with future focus on achieving profitability and validating its business model [7] - The comprehensive Robotaxi ecosystem built on Geely's support represents a rare opportunity for Caocao Travel to tap into the trillion-dollar autonomous driving market, potentially transforming its valuation from a ride-hailing platform to a smart transportation technology entity [7]