Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a ride-hailing platform under Geely Group, focusing on customized vehicle fleets and actively participating in the Robotaxi layout. It is expected to achieve a net profit of -1.05 billion, -0.08 billion, and 0.73 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profit margins of -5%, 0%, and 2% [6][7]. - The company is experiencing rapid revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase from 10.67 billion RMB in 2023 to 29.93 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.8% [5][6]. - The Robotaxi business is anticipated to contribute significantly to future profitability, with a potential gross margin exceeding 40% by 2030, driven by reduced driver costs [6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2015 and backed by Geely Group, aims to create a shared ecosystem for new energy vehicles. It has expanded its operations to include ride-hailing services, vehicle sales, and rentals [6][15]. - The company has achieved a market share of 5.4% in the ride-hailing industry, ranking second, and is expanding into lower-tier cities [6][47]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 10.67 billion RMB in 2023, 14.66 billion RMB in 2024, and reaching 20.51 billion RMB in 2025 [5][6]. - The company is projected to reduce its net loss from -1.91 billion RMB in 2023 to -1.05 billion RMB in 2025, with a path to profitability by 2027 [5][6]. Industry Analysis - The shared mobility market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% from 2025 to 2029, with the market size projected to reach 804.2 billion RMB [6][38]. - The Robotaxi segment is entering a phase of commercialization, with significant market potential as technology advances towards higher levels of automation [6][54]. Competitive Advantages - The company leverages a customized vehicle fleet strategy, enhancing service quality and optimizing cost control. The first-generation model, Maple 80V, and the second-generation model, Cao Cao 60, are designed specifically for ride-hailing services, offering competitive total cost of ownership (TCO) [6][63][66]. - The integration with Geely Group provides a comprehensive ecosystem that supports vehicle design, manufacturing, and operational efficiency, creating a competitive barrier [6][21].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a ride-hailing platform incubated by Geely Group, focusing on building a new energy vehicle sharing ecosystem. It has achieved rapid business expansion and is on the verge of turning profitable [6][17]. - The ride-hailing industry in China is experiencing high growth, with the company holding the second-largest market share and benefiting from a strong consumer base in first- and second-tier cities [6][51]. - The company is implementing a customized vehicle strategy, which enhances service quality and optimizes cost control, contributing to a clearer path to profitability [6][67]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from 10,668 million RMB in 2023 to 29,931 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.8% from 2023 to 2025 [5][28]. - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to improve from -1,916 million RMB in 2023 to 727 million RMB in 2027, indicating a turnaround in profitability [5][7]. - The company’s gross profit margin is anticipated to increase from 5.8% in 2023 to 15.3% in 2027, reflecting improved operational efficiency [5][34]. Industry Overview - The shared mobility market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 17% from 2025 to 2029, with significant potential for market expansion [6][42]. - The Robotaxi segment is entering a phase of commercialization, with substantial market opportunities anticipated as technology advances [6][58]. Customized Vehicle Strategy - The company operates the largest customized ride-hailing fleet in the country, with a focus on cost-effective vehicle models that enhance user experience and operational efficiency [6][67]. - The total cost of ownership (TCO) for the company's customized vehicles is significantly lower than that of typical electric vehicles, providing a competitive edge [6][72]. Robotaxi Development - The company plans to launch the "Caocao Zhixing" platform in 2025, with initial Robotaxi services already piloted in Suzhou and Hangzhou, indicating a strong commitment to integrating autonomous driving technology [6][63]. - The long-term profit potential of the Robotaxi business is substantial, with estimates suggesting a gross margin exceeding 40% by 2030 [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Cao Cao Mobility, after ten years of operation, went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HKD 1.718 billion, but faced skepticism regarding its sustainable profitability despite a strong market narrative in the new energy and mobility sector [1][3]. Company Overview - Founded in 2015, Cao Cao Mobility is a strategic business of Geely Holding Group focused on the "new energy vehicle sharing ecosystem" [3]. - The company has differentiated itself by emphasizing high-quality, low-carbon ride experiences with its own fleet of new energy vehicles and contracted drivers, rather than engaging in subsidy wars like competitors [3]. - By 2024, the company had expanded its operations to 136 cities, with revenue growth from CNY 7.631 billion in 2022 to CNY 14.657 billion in 2024, while reducing net losses from CNY 20.07 billion to CNY 12.46 billion over the same period [3]. Market Position - Cao Cao Mobility ranked among the top three ride-hailing platforms in China by gross transaction value (GTV) since 2021 and is projected to become the second-largest player by 2024 [3]. - The ride-hailing market in China has become highly concentrated, with the top five platforms holding over 90% market share by the end of 2024 [4]. Financial Performance - The company’s GTV from third-party aggregation platforms increased significantly, from 49.9% in 2022 to 85.4% in 2024, indicating a heavy reliance on external platforms for order volume [5]. - Cao Cao's sales and marketing expenses have seen a rise in commission payments to aggregation platforms, from 50.3% to 85.6% of total expenses, highlighting vulnerability to changes in platform commission structures [5]. - The company has incurred over CNY 5.2 billion in net losses over the past three years, with a high asset-liability ratio of 149% as of 2024 [5]. Regulatory and Compliance Issues - As of October 2024, a significant portion of Cao Cao's active vehicles and drivers lacked the necessary operating licenses, with 8.6% of vehicles and 11.1% of drivers not compliant [7]. - The company ranked eighth in compliance rates among major platforms, reflecting broader industry challenges in meeting regulatory requirements [7]. User Experience Challenges - Complaints against Cao Cao Mobility have been prevalent, with issues related to pricing transparency and service quality, indicating systemic problems within the industry [7][8]. - Driver dissatisfaction has been noted due to low earnings and the imposition of low-paying "special orders," which has led to high turnover rates among drivers [8]. Future Outlook - The company is investing in autonomous driving technology, with plans to launch a Robotaxi service by 2026, although this is not expected to provide immediate financial support [10]. - Addressing cash flow issues, reducing dependency on aggregation platforms, and improving compliance and user experience are critical for gaining investor confidence in the near term [10].

Core Viewpoint - The necessity of customized vehicles for ride-hailing platforms is affirmed, as evidenced by Cao Cao Mobility's IPO prospectus, which highlights the potential for differentiated quality in passenger experience, driver income, and platform efficiency through customized cars [1] Group 1: Customized Vehicle Strategy - Cao Cao Mobility's customized vehicles are designed specifically for ride-hailing, focusing on space, comfort, and durability rather than personal ownership [1] - The company launched its first generation of customized vehicles, the Fengye 80V, in 2022, followed by the second generation, the Cao Cao 60, in 2023, and plans to sell customized vehicles to third parties [1][2] - By the end of 2024, Cao Cao Mobility's ride-hailing services will cover over 100 cities in China, with more than 34,000 customized vehicles, making it the largest customized vehicle fleet globally according to Frost & Sullivan [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages of Customized Vehicles - Customized vehicles can significantly reduce operational costs, with total cost of ownership (TCO) for Fengye 80V and Cao Cao 60 estimated at 0.53 RMB/km and 0.47 RMB/km, respectively, representing a 33% and 40% reduction compared to traditional electric vehicles [2] - Cao Cao Mobility collaborates with Yiyihulian to lower driver costs, resulting in an increase in average hourly income for drivers from 30.9 RMB in 2022 to 35.7 RMB in 2024, surpassing the industry average of approximately 27 RMB [2] - The company benefits from a network of 133 authorized maintenance shops, reducing average maintenance time and costs by 25% and 54%, respectively [2] Group 3: Comparison with Didi's Customized Vehicle Efforts - Didi's earlier attempts at customized vehicles, such as the D1, have not met expectations, with only 78 units sold in June 2023 and a total of 183 units since launch [3] - Didi's challenges stem from timing issues and misalignment in its business model for Robotaxi, which contrasts with Cao Cao Mobility's more integrated approach with its partner Geely [4][6] - Didi's strategy involved self-managing vehicle design and autonomous vehicle development, leading to inefficiencies compared to Cao Cao Mobility's reliance on Geely for production and technology [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Position - Cao Cao Mobility's IPO plans to allocate over 50% of funds to a three-pronged business model focusing on customized vehicles, autonomous driving, and platform services [5] - Despite its current market position as the second-largest player, Cao Cao Mobility faces significant challenges, including a net loss of 5.2 billion RMB over three years and a debt of 11.3 billion RMB in 2024 [8] - The competitive landscape is tightening, with other players like T3 Mobility and Huqi Mobility closely trailing behind, indicating a need for Cao Cao Mobility to strengthen its market position [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Caocao Mobility has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the largest technology mobility platform in the market, backed by major industry players like Mercedes-Benz and Guoxuan High-Tech, which highlights its differentiated value proposition in the customized vehicle ecosystem and Robotaxi strategy [1][3]. Market Dynamics and Industry Challenges - Despite the initial stock price volatility post-listing, the overall market sentiment and profitability expectations in the mobility sector have influenced this fluctuation [3][4]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has experienced a downturn since mid-March 2023, impacting investor sentiment and market performance [3]. - The Chinese mobility market is projected to grow from 6.895 trillion yuan in 2022 to 8 trillion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.4% from 2025 to 2029, yet challenges such as "economies of scale" and high fixed costs persist [4][5]. Business Model and Competitive Advantage - Caocao Mobility is leveraging its integration with Geely Group to build a customized vehicle ecosystem, which is expected to enhance its long-term value proposition [5][7]. - The company has developed two customized vehicles, the Maple Leaf 80V and Caocao 60, which focus on cost efficiency and passenger experience, leading to a significant reduction in total cost of ownership (TCO) by 36.4% compared to typical electric vehicles [7][8]. - The average gross margin is projected to improve from 5.8% in 2023 to 8.5% in Q1 2025, driven by the increasing share of customized vehicle orders [7][10]. Driver and User Engagement - Caocao Mobility has successfully increased driver earnings, with average hourly income rising from 30.9 yuan in 2022 to 35.7 yuan in 2024, outperforming industry averages [9]. - The company has been recognized for its service quality, achieving a significantly lower accident rate compared to industry norms, which enhances user retention and loyalty [9]. Future Growth and Strategic Focus - The company plans to allocate 48% of its IPO proceeds towards upgrading customized vehicles, developing Robotaxi technology, and expanding geographically, indicating a strategic focus on creating a closed-loop ecosystem of customized vehicles, autonomous driving, and mobility services [10][11]. - The anticipated growth of the Robotaxi market in China, projected to reach a trillion yuan by 2030, positions Caocao Mobility favorably for future expansion and valuation enhancement [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Cao Cao Mobility (02643.HK) listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 25, 2024, but experienced a significant drop in share price on its first day, closing at 36 HKD per share, down 14.16% from the issue price of 41.94 HKD per share [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Cao Cao Mobility is a ride-hailing platform incubated by Geely Group, operating in 136 cities as of December 31, 2024 [2] - The company's Gross Transaction Value (GTV) reached 12.2 billion CNY in 2023, a 37.5% increase from 2022, and is projected to grow to 17 billion CNY in 2024, representing a 38.8% increase [2] - The market share of Cao Cao Mobility is reported to be 5.4% [2] Group 2: IPO and Financials - The company raised approximately 1.853 billion HKD through its IPO, with a post-listing valuation of 22.823 billion HKD [3] - 30% of the raised funds will be used for debt repayment and operational funding, as the company has a high debt-to-asset ratio of 276.71% and total debts of 7.219 billion CNY against cash reserves of only 159 million CNY [3] - Cao Cao Mobility has not yet achieved profitability, with cumulative losses exceeding 8.2 billion CNY from 2021 to 2024, despite increasing revenues [4] Group 3: Operational Challenges - The company operates on a B2C model, owning a fleet of over 33,000 vehicles, which incurs significant depreciation and maintenance costs [6] - Cao Cao Mobility heavily relies on aggregation platforms for customer acquisition, with orders from these platforms accounting for 85.4% of its GTV in 2024 [6] - The commissions paid to aggregation platforms have increased from 321 million CNY in 2022 to 1.046 billion CNY in 2024 [6] Group 4: Regulatory Issues - The company faces compliance issues, with a significant number of vehicles and drivers lacking the necessary permits, leading to multiple regulatory penalties [7] Group 5: Strategic Initiatives - The company is promoting a "customized vehicle" strategy, leveraging Geely Group's automotive resources to enhance driver retention and reduce operational costs [8] - Cao Cao Mobility is collaborating with Geely Group to develop a dedicated L4-level Robotaxi, expected to launch by the end of 2026 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Caocao Travel's stock price drop on its debut reflects structural challenges in the ride-hailing industry, yet the company is pursuing a unique path to overcome these obstacles [1][2] Group 1: Reasons for Stock Price Drop - The stock price drop is attributed to both internal and external factors, including a persistently low liquidity in the Hong Kong market, which has negatively impacted valuations of unprofitable tech growth stocks [2] - The ride-hailing industry faces significant profitability challenges due to multiple cost pressures, including regulatory limits on platform commissions, high driver costs, and substantial fixed costs related to vehicle acquisition and maintenance [2] - Despite achieving positive gross margins and adjusted EBITDA, Caocao Travel has accumulated losses exceeding 8.2 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024, leading some investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach [2] Group 2: Unique Solutions by Caocao Travel - Caocao Travel differentiates itself by leveraging Geely Group's ecosystem to integrate supply chains and reconstruct unit economics, focusing on customized vehicles designed specifically for ride-hailing scenarios [3] - The customized vehicles, developed in collaboration with Geely, feature cost-saving designs and enhanced durability, which improve driver experience and operational efficiency [3] - Financial indicators show improvement, with gross margins projected to rise from -4.4% in 2022 to 8.1% in 2024, and adjusted EBITDA rates improving from -10.1% in 2022 to 2.6% in 2024 as the share of customized vehicle orders increases [3][4] Group 3: Future Prospects and Strategic Positioning - Caocao Travel is positioned uniquely for the Robotaxi era, being the only company in China with full-stack capabilities in customized vehicle manufacturing, autonomous driving technology, and ride-hailing platform operations [5] - The existing customized vehicle ecosystem serves as an ideal training ground for Robotaxi operations, with plans to launch L4 autonomous driving customized Robotaxi models by the end of 2026 [5] - The backing of strategic investors like Mercedes-Benz and Guoxuan High-Tech highlights Caocao Travel's value as a hub for smart electric mobility, indicating a shift from a ride-hailing platform to a smart transportation technology ecosystem [6] Group 4: Conclusion - The volatility in the Hong Kong market and the inherent low-profit characteristics of the industry are the backdrop for Caocao Travel's stock price drop, with future focus on achieving profitability and validating its business model [7] - The comprehensive Robotaxi ecosystem built on Geely's support represents a rare opportunity for Caocao Travel to tap into the trillion-dollar autonomous driving market, potentially transforming its valuation from a ride-hailing platform to a smart transportation technology entity [7]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation from Li Shufu for Cao Cao Mobility to "surpass Didi to be successful" appears increasingly like an unattainable dream in the current market context [1] Company Overview - Cao Cao Mobility, incubated by Geely, has faced significant financial challenges, including a cumulative loss of 5.2 billion yuan over three years and a high dependency on aggregator platforms for 85.4% of its orders [4][5][14] - The company went public on June 25, 2025, but its stock price plummeted by 19.4% on the first day, closing at 36 HKD, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately 19 billion HKD [3][6] Financial Performance - Revenue increased from 7.63 billion yuan in 2022 to 14.66 billion yuan in 2024, but net losses remained substantial at 20.07 million, 19.81 million, and 12.46 million yuan for the respective years [5][7] - As of the end of 2024, total liabilities reached 11.28 billion yuan, with cash and equivalents only at 159 million yuan, indicating a precarious financial position [5][8] Business Model and Strategy - Cao Cao Mobility operates under a B2C heavy asset model, which has led to high operational costs and limited expansion capabilities, with a gross margin of only 8.1% compared to Didi's 18.15% [10][13] - The company has been forced to allocate 34% of its IPO proceeds to repay short-term debts, highlighting the necessity of financing for survival rather than growth [8] Market Environment - The overall market sentiment is negative, as evidenced by the poor performance of other similar companies like Dida and Ruqi, which have seen their stock prices drop by 80% [9] - Despite the projected growth of the shared mobility market in China, the competitive landscape remains dominated by Didi, making it challenging for other players to achieve economies of scale [9] Future Outlook - Cao Cao Mobility's reliance on aggregator platforms has increased significantly, with commissions paid to these platforms reaching 1.046 billion yuan in 2024, which is 85.7% of its sales expenses [14] - The company plans to invest 17% of its IPO proceeds (approximately 295 million HKD) into autonomous driving research, but this amount is significantly lower than competitors like Waymo and Baidu [15]

Core Viewpoint - The successful listing of Cao Cao Mobility on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange marks a significant milestone for the company, which has developed a unique business model centered around customized vehicles in the ride-hailing industry [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Cao Cao Mobility, incubated by Geely Group, has spent ten years developing a ride-hailing ecosystem focused on customized vehicles, contrasting with other platforms that pursued rapid expansion [4]. - The company has become the largest ride-hailing platform listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, demonstrating resilience in a complex regulatory environment [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The average hourly income for Cao Cao Mobility drivers increased from RMB 30.9 in 2022 to RMB 35.7 in 2024, significantly higher than the industry average of RMB 27 [6][10]. - The customized vehicle strategy has positively impacted the company's financials, with gross profit margin improving from -5.8% in 2023 to 8.1% in 2024 [7]. Group 3: Cost Efficiency and Service Improvement - The total cost of ownership (TCO) for drivers is projected to decrease by 36.4%, reaching approximately RMB 0.5 per kilometer, enhancing operational efficiency [8]. - Cao Cao Mobility's partnership with Geely has led to a 25% reduction in maintenance time and a 54% decrease in costs, further benefiting drivers [11]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Innovations - The company is exploring the Robotaxi market, leveraging its customized vehicle experience to create a closed-loop ecosystem that integrates vehicle manufacturing, autonomous driving technology, and ride-hailing services [12][14]. - Cao Cao Mobility plans to launch a customized Robotaxi model designed for L4 autonomous driving by the end of 2026, aiming to capitalize on the future trillion-dollar market [15].

Core Viewpoint - Cao Cao Mobility has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the largest technology ride-hailing platform in the market [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Cao Cao Mobility's GTV is projected to reach 17 billion yuan in 2024, holding the second-largest market share in the ride-hailing industry [3] - The company operates a fleet of over 34,000 self-owned customized vehicles across 31 cities in China, with plans to expand to 50,000 vehicles by replacing non-customized ones [5] - The customized vehicle model has shown a rising trend, with its GTV proportion increasing from 5.3% in 2022 to 25.1% in 2024 [5] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is reported at 7.631 billion, 10.668 billion, and 14.657 billion yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 39% [3] - The adjusted net loss is expected to narrow from 1.65 billion yuan in 2022 to 724 million yuan in 2024, while adjusted EBITDA is projected to turn from -773 million yuan in 2022 to 383 million yuan in 2024 [9] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The customized vehicle model reduces total cost of ownership (TCO) significantly, with TCO for two main models being 0.53 yuan/km and 0.47 yuan/km, which is 33% and 40% lower than typical electric vehicles [7] - The company has established a unique supply-side barrier through its customized vehicle ecosystem, which is difficult for competitors to replicate due to the required automotive industry background [13] - Cao Cao Mobility is positioned to lead in the Robotaxi era, having launched a pilot Robotaxi service in two cities and planning to develop a new type of customized vehicle for Robotaxi services by 2026 [15] Group 4: Market Outlook - The Robotaxi market is expected to grow significantly, with predictions suggesting that by 2030, the domestic market could exceed 488.8 billion yuan [18] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth due to its strong integration of autonomous driving technology, vehicle manufacturing, and operational platform [18][19]