共享出行平台行业深度报告 行业呈燎原之势，曹操出行的弯道超车机会在即 2025 年 09 月 26 日 ➢ 中国出行市场规模稳居全球首位，聚合平台兴起或改写滴滴出行主导用户交 互的行业生态。中国出行市场规模稳居全球首位，2024 年市场规模为 8 万亿元。 得益于下沉市场出行需求的增长以及共享出行市场规模的扩大，据弗若斯特沙利 文的预测，2025-2029 年，出行市场的 CAGR 有望提升至 5.4%；地图导航， 本地生活型聚合平台崛起，重塑行业流量生态，弗若斯特沙利文预计 2029 年通 过聚合平台完成的网约车订单比例或攀升至 53.9%，为第二梯队的企业提供了突 围的机会，打破了以往滴滴出行主导用户交互的局面。 ➢ 曹操出行：国内唯一"三合一"自动驾驶运营平台，公司弯道超车机会在即。 1）吉利孵化的中国领先共享出行平台，发展持续提速。公司为吉利集团孵化， 公司实控人李书福为吉利汽车的创始人及董事长，曹操出行现已成长中国第二大 共享出行平台，2025H1 公司实现 GTV109.5 亿元，同比+53.6%；1H25 完成 订单 380 亿单，同比+49%。 2）与吉利业务协同效应显著，打造中国最大规模定制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese ride-hailing market is transitioning from "wild growth" to "compliance and intelligence," with the core conflict shifting from capital subsidies to the institutional reconstruction of automated driving and human-vehicle relationships. The market is expected to reach nearly 1 trillion yuan by 2030, with opportunities arising for second-tier platforms due to the rise of aggregation platforms and Robotaxi technology breakthroughs [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The ride-hailing market is experiencing internal flow decentralization, with aggregation platforms capturing approximately 25%-30% of order share, creating structural opportunities for second-tier platforms [2]. - The Robotaxi, leveraging L4 autonomous driving technology, is seen as a key breakthrough, significantly reducing accident rates compared to human drivers by over 80% [2]. - The market is projected to grow to nearly 1 trillion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 20% [35]. Group 2: Company Performance - The company is actively expanding its market share through partnerships with aggregation platforms, achieving a 53.5% year-on-year increase in active drivers to 544,000 and a 57.4% increase in active users to 38 million in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 206.7 billion yuan in 2025, 262.4 billion yuan in 2026, and 323.7 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The company has developed a fleet of 37,000 customized vehicles, leading the industry and enhancing the standardization of travel experiences [3][15]. Group 3: Technological Integration - The company is integrating vehicle manufacturing, operational services, and technology research and development into a unified Robotaxi platform, aiming to replicate the success of its ride-hailing business [4]. - The launch of "Cao Cao Smart Travel" and the introduction of customized vehicles are part of the strategy to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [4][15]. - The company is leveraging its parent group’s resources to enhance research and development efficiency, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of L4 technology [4]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 146.6 billion yuan, a 37.4% year-on-year increase, driven by a significant rise in order volume and average order value [24]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from -4.4% in 2022 to 8.4% in the first half of 2025, reflecting effective cost control and increased customer spending [29]. - The company’s operational revenue is primarily derived from ride-hailing services, which accounted for 90.9% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [27].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Cao Cao Mobility has shown strong performance since its IPO, indicating robust market confidence in its investment value, with the stock price doubling from its initial offering price of 41.94 HKD to a peak of 92.5 HKD within a few months [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Cao Cao Mobility reported a significant increase in Gross Transaction Value (GTV) of 53.6% year-on-year, reaching 10.954 billion RMB [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 9.456 billion RMB, marking a 53.5% increase compared to the previous year [4] - The adjusted net loss narrowed to 3.3 billion RMB, with an adjusted net loss rate of 3.5%, improving by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Operating cash flow turned positive with a net inflow of 325 million RMB, reflecting a 164.6% increase year-on-year [4] Market Position and Growth Potential - Cao Cao Mobility has expanded its operational footprint to 163 cities, with a fleet of over 37,000 customized vehicles, and has entered 27 new cities [3] - The company is expected to maintain a GTV growth rate of over 40% in the coming years, driven by its strategic expansion and the introduction of new vehicle models [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched its autonomous driving platform, with plans to introduce L4 level Robotaxi models by the end of next year, positioning itself to benefit from the anticipated growth in the Robotaxi market [8] - The integration into the Hang Seng Composite Index is expected to attract additional mainland capital, enhancing trading activity and liquidity for the stock [2][14] Analyst Predictions - Analysts predict that Cao Cao Mobility will achieve adjusted net profit in the coming year, with target stock prices ranging from 98 to 108 HKD, indicating significant upside potential from current levels [15]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price performance of Cao Cao Mobility (曹操出行) post-IPO indicates strong market recognition of its investment value, with the stock price doubling from its IPO price of HKD 41.94 to a peak of HKD 92.5, signaling robust growth potential [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Cao Cao Mobility reported a significant increase in Gross Transaction Value (GTV) of 53.6% year-on-year, reaching RMB 10.954 billion [4]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 9.456 billion, marking a 53.5% increase compared to the previous year, with a notable improvement in gross margin, which rose by 1.4 percentage points to 8.4% [4]. - The adjusted net loss for the period was RMB 3.3 billion, with an adjusted net loss rate of 3.5%, showing a substantial improvement of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Market Expansion and User Growth - As of June 30, 2025, the company operated in 163 cities with a daily order volume of 2.108 million, reflecting a 50.6% increase year-on-year [4]. - The average monthly active users reached 38.1 million, up 57.4% year-on-year, and the average monthly active drivers increased by 53.5% to 554,000 [4]. Strategic Developments - Cao Cao Mobility has been approved for inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index, effective September 8, which is expected to attract additional mainland capital through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [2][14]. - The company plans to expand into 200 new cities this year and aims to sell 1.5-3.2 million customized vehicles from 2025 to 2027, leveraging its low Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) advantage [7][8]. Future Outlook - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth of Robotaxi services, with plans to launch L4-level Robotaxi models by the end of next year [8]. - Analysts predict that the Robotaxi segment could significantly enhance profitability, with expectations of a return to positive adjusted net profit by next year [7][15]. - The Robotaxi market in China is projected to reach RMB 1.6 trillion by 2035, with Cao Cao Mobility aiming for a 15% market share, potentially valuing this segment at RMB 240 billion [13].

Company Overview - Cao Cao Travel is a ride-hailing service platform incubated by Geely Group, with the actual controller holding approximately 77% of the shares [1] - The platform's total transaction volume is projected to reach 17 billion yuan in 2024, capturing a market share of 5.4%, ranking second in the industry [1] - From 2015 to 2020, the company built its capacity from scratch using a B2C model, leveraging the advantages of its parent automotive manufacturer [1] - Between 2021 and 2023, the company underwent a strategic transformation, shifting leadership from automotive backgrounds to professional ride-hailing managers, and introduced customized vehicles as a differentiation strategy [1] Industry Development - The ride-hailing industry is experiencing stable penetration growth, with an average daily passenger volume of 98 million in 2024, reflecting a 7.1% year-on-year increase [2] - The daily order volume for ride-hailing services in China is expected to reach 31.5 million in 2024, with penetration rates increasing from 10% in 2015 to 41% in 2022 [2] - The industry faces challenges due to low profit margins, with leading player Didi's adjusted EBITA/GTV expected to be 3.0%/4.0% in 2024/2025 Q1 [2] - The core of the industry is controlled by two networks (capacity and traffic), with the rise of aggregation platforms providing traffic access for smaller players [2] Key Insights - The company aims to achieve profitability through customized vehicles and is expected to reach a daily order volume of 2.29 million by 2025, with EBIT per order projected at -0.3 yuan [3] - The introduction of customized vehicles is expected to reduce driver vehicle ownership costs and enhance long-distance order volumes, with driver hourly wages at 36 yuan compared to the industry average of 27 yuan in 2024 [3] - Geely Group's integration of its smart driving business and plans to launch a dedicated L4 Robotaxi model by the end of 2026 positions the company for mid-term growth [3] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for the company are 20.9 billion, 27.5 billion, and 34.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 43%, 32%, and 26% respectively [4] - The company is expected to reach a net profit of -490 million, 100 million, and 510 million yuan in the same period [4] - The introduction of customized vehicles and Robotaxi services is anticipated to open new profit avenues, with a target price range of 98-108 HKD for 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Cao Cao Mobility has demonstrated strong financial performance following its Hong Kong IPO, with significant revenue growth and a narrowing loss, indicating a positive trend in its core business operations [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Cao Cao Mobility achieved revenue of 9.456 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.5%, and a gross profit of 796 million yuan, with a gross margin of 8.4%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company's loss narrowed by 39.8% compared to the previous year, reflecting a comprehensive optimization of its core financial metrics [1]. - The average monthly active users increased by 57.4% year-on-year, and the average monthly active drivers grew by 53.5% [3]. Market Expansion - Cao Cao Mobility expanded its service coverage to 163 cities, entering 27 new cities during the reporting period, with total order volume reaching 380 million, a 49% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company is developing a customized vehicle fleet, which differentiates it from competitors and enhances user experience [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The launch of the "Cao Cao Zhixing" autonomous driving platform and the initiation of Robotaxi pilot services in Suzhou and Hangzhou are key growth drivers, with over 15,000 kilometers of autonomous driving tests completed by the end of June [1]. - The company is collaborating with Geely and other partners to develop autonomous driving technology and customized vehicle applications [1]. Future Growth Potential - Analysts predict that Cao Cao Mobility will approach breakeven in 2024 and achieve significant profitability by 2027, driven by the scaling of its customized vehicle model and the reduction of subsidies in new cities [6]. - The Robotaxi business is expected to have a higher profit margin compared to traditional ride-hailing services due to reduced costs associated with driver payments [10]. Industry Trends - The regulatory environment is becoming more favorable for Robotaxi operations, with new policies allowing for commercial operations of L4 autonomous vehicles in select cities [9]. - The market for Robotaxi is projected to grow significantly, with cost advantages expected to increase as technology matures, potentially lowering operational costs to 0.9 yuan per kilometer by 2035 [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price range of HKD 98.00 to HKD 108.00, indicating a potential upside of 25% to 39% from the current price of HKD 81.25 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to reach a profitability inflection point through its customized vehicle strategy and is expected to benefit from the Robotaxi model, which will enhance its mid-term growth prospects [3][4]. - The report highlights the company's strategic shift from a B2C model to a focus on customized vehicles and partnerships with aggregation platforms, which is anticipated to improve operational efficiency and market penetration [2][3][31]. Company Overview - The company, Cao Cao Travel, is a leading ride-hailing platform backed by Geely Group, with a market share of 5.4% and a projected total transaction volume of RMB 17 billion in 2024 [1][16]. - The company has undergone a strategic transformation since 2021, shifting its management team from traditional automotive backgrounds to professionals with experience in the ride-hailing industry [18][20]. Industry Development - The ride-hailing industry in China is experiencing stable growth, with daily orders expected to reach 31.5 million in 2024, reflecting a penetration rate increase from 10% in 2015 to 41% in 2022 [2][52]. - The industry is characterized by a few dominant players, with the top player, Didi, expected to achieve an adjusted EBITA margin of 3.0% in 2024 [2]. Financial Analysis - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 20.9 billion, RMB 27.5 billion, and RMB 34.6 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 43%, 32%, and 26% [4][5]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 4.9 billion in 2025 to a profit of RMB 5.1 billion in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround in profitability [4][5]. Business Model - The company's core business is centered around ride-hailing services, which accounted for 92.6% of its revenue in 2024, with vehicle leasing and sales contributing marginally [23][24]. - The shift towards a light-asset model is expected to alleviate cost pressures and improve profitability, with a focus on customized vehicles and partnerships with local operators [29][30]. Growth Outlook - The company aims to expand its operations to 136 cities by the end of 2024, with a fleet of 34,000 customized vehicles, indicating a strong growth trajectory [16][18]. - The introduction of Robotaxi services is anticipated to further enhance the company's growth potential, with plans to launch a dedicated L4 Robotaxi model by the end of 2026 [3][4].

Group 1 - The shared mobility industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the market expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% from 2025 to 2029, and the company holds a 5.4% market share in 2024, primarily in strong consumer cities [1] - The company operates the largest customized ride-hailing fleet in the country, with a focus on cost-effective and high-quality service, achieving a total cost of ownership (TCO) that is 33% and 40% lower than typical electric vehicles for its customized models [1] - The company plans to launch the "Cao Cao Zhixing" platform in 2025, with initial vehicles based on the Lynk & Co Z10 model, aiming for a gross profit margin of over 40% by 2030 for its Robotaxi service, which is expected to significantly reduce driver costs [3] Group 2 - The company is implementing a strategy of "initial subsidy penetration followed by gradual reduction," with plans to expand into 85 new cities in 2024, leading to improved performance as penetration rates increase [2] - The company forecasts a turnaround in net profit from -1.05 billion yuan in 2025 to 730 million yuan in 2027, with an expected EBIT margin comparable to Didi's Q1 2025 levels [3] - The company's current target market value is estimated at 42.8 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 21% [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a ride-hailing platform under Geely Group, focusing on customized vehicle fleets and actively participating in the Robotaxi layout. It is expected to achieve a net profit of -1.05 billion, -0.08 billion, and 0.73 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profit margins of -5%, 0%, and 2% [6][7]. - The company is experiencing rapid revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase from 10.67 billion RMB in 2023 to 29.93 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.8% [5][6]. - The Robotaxi business is anticipated to contribute significantly to future profitability, with a potential gross margin exceeding 40% by 2030, driven by reduced driver costs [6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2015 and backed by Geely Group, aims to create a shared ecosystem for new energy vehicles. It has expanded its operations to include ride-hailing services, vehicle sales, and rentals [6][15]. - The company has achieved a market share of 5.4% in the ride-hailing industry, ranking second, and is expanding into lower-tier cities [6][47]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 10.67 billion RMB in 2023, 14.66 billion RMB in 2024, and reaching 20.51 billion RMB in 2025 [5][6]. - The company is projected to reduce its net loss from -1.91 billion RMB in 2023 to -1.05 billion RMB in 2025, with a path to profitability by 2027 [5][6]. Industry Analysis - The shared mobility market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% from 2025 to 2029, with the market size projected to reach 804.2 billion RMB [6][38]. - The Robotaxi segment is entering a phase of commercialization, with significant market potential as technology advances towards higher levels of automation [6][54]. Competitive Advantages - The company leverages a customized vehicle fleet strategy, enhancing service quality and optimizing cost control. The first-generation model, Maple 80V, and the second-generation model, Cao Cao 60, are designed specifically for ride-hailing services, offering competitive total cost of ownership (TCO) [6][63][66]. - The integration with Geely Group provides a comprehensive ecosystem that supports vehicle design, manufacturing, and operational efficiency, creating a competitive barrier [6][21].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a ride-hailing platform incubated by Geely Group, focusing on building a new energy vehicle sharing ecosystem. It has achieved rapid business expansion and is on the verge of turning profitable [6][17]. - The ride-hailing industry in China is experiencing high growth, with the company holding the second-largest market share and benefiting from a strong consumer base in first- and second-tier cities [6][51]. - The company is implementing a customized vehicle strategy, which enhances service quality and optimizes cost control, contributing to a clearer path to profitability [6][67]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from 10,668 million RMB in 2023 to 29,931 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.8% from 2023 to 2025 [5][28]. - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to improve from -1,916 million RMB in 2023 to 727 million RMB in 2027, indicating a turnaround in profitability [5][7]. - The company’s gross profit margin is anticipated to increase from 5.8% in 2023 to 15.3% in 2027, reflecting improved operational efficiency [5][34]. Industry Overview - The shared mobility market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 17% from 2025 to 2029, with significant potential for market expansion [6][42]. - The Robotaxi segment is entering a phase of commercialization, with substantial market opportunities anticipated as technology advances [6][58]. Customized Vehicle Strategy - The company operates the largest customized ride-hailing fleet in the country, with a focus on cost-effective vehicle models that enhance user experience and operational efficiency [6][67]. - The total cost of ownership (TCO) for the company's customized vehicles is significantly lower than that of typical electric vehicles, providing a competitive edge [6][72]. Robotaxi Development - The company plans to launch the "Caocao Zhixing" platform in 2025, with initial Robotaxi services already piloted in Suzhou and Hangzhou, indicating a strong commitment to integrating autonomous driving technology [6][63]. - The long-term profit potential of the Robotaxi business is substantial, with estimates suggesting a gross margin exceeding 40% by 2030 [6][7].