Core Insights - 2025 is viewed as a critical year for the development of Robotaxi in China, with multiple autonomous driving companies focusing on Robotaxi going public and major industry players announcing their latest advancements [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Cao Cao Mobility, as the most important commercial vehicle for Geely's Robotaxi, announced on November 10 that it will advance its Robotaxi business in Abu Dhabi, marking the beginning of its global verification [2] - Abu Dhabi, as the capital of the UAE and a major economic and technological center in the Middle East, has become an important testing ground for global Robotaxi companies, validating Cao Cao Mobility's "three-in-one" business model (manufacturing + intelligent driving + operation) on a larger scale [4][5] - Cao Cao Mobility has transitioned from being a leading ride-hailing platform in China to an important player in the global smart mobility competition as it expands its Robotaxi business internationally [5] Group 2: Business Model - The "three-in-one" model aims to create a closed-loop for the entire Robotaxi chain, integrating vehicle manufacturing and service operation from the outset to tailor for autonomous driving scenarios [6] - Since 2022, Cao Cao Mobility has launched two customized models, "Maple Leaf 80V" and "Cao Cao 60," designed specifically for shared mobility, enhancing durability, comfort, and integrating smart cabin features [6] - The company has built a comprehensive vehicle service solution, including battery swap stations and maintenance points, making these customized vehicles the most cost-effective in the shared mobility sector [6][10] Group 3: Operational Capabilities - Cao Cao Mobility's operational capabilities are central to the success of its Robotaxi commercialization, leveraging ten years of experience in the ride-hailing market to balance quality service and sustainable platform development [8] - As of June 30, 2025, Cao Cao Mobility operates over 37,000 customized vehicles across 31 cities, making it the largest fleet of its kind in China, which serves as a testing ground for optimizing operational efficiency [9] - The company’s operational strength is further enhanced by its deep control over the customized vehicle ecosystem, which lays a solid foundation for the large-scale deployment of Robotaxi [9][12] Group 4: Strategic Collaborations - In July, Cao Cao Mobility partnered with a commercial aerospace company to enhance the safety of its Robotaxi fleet by integrating global satellite communication and high-precision positioning technologies [14] - The company is also exploring innovative financial tools to empower its Robotaxi strategy, including the integration of RWA and stablecoins to activate core assets and accelerate strategic deployment [14] - In September, a strategic collaboration was established with a low-altitude travel technology company to create a three-dimensional smart transportation network that integrates ground Robotaxi and eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) services [15] Group 5: Market Potential - Institutions like Dongwu Securities predict that the Robotaxi market could reach several hundred billion by 2030, indicating significant long-term profit potential [16] - With the partnership in Abu Dhabi, Cao Cao Mobility is set to embark on a global journey, showcasing its competitive potential on an international scale [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the shared mobility industry, particularly highlighting the growth potential of Cao Cao Mobility as a unique "three-in-one" autonomous driving operation platform [6]. Core Insights - The Chinese mobility market is the largest globally, with a projected market size of 8 trillion yuan in 2024, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% expected from 2025 to 2029 [1][10]. - Cao Cao Mobility, backed by Geely, is positioned as the second-largest shared mobility platform in China, achieving a gross transaction value (GTV) of 10.95 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 53.6% [2][3]. - The rise of aggregation platforms is reshaping the industry ecosystem, with the proportion of ride-hailing orders completed through these platforms expected to reach 53.9% by 2029, providing opportunities for second-tier companies to break through [1][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The Chinese mobility market is projected to reach 10.56 trillion yuan by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.4% from 2025 to 2029, driven by increasing demand in lower-tier markets and the expansion of shared mobility [10]. - The shared mobility market is rapidly expanding, with a forecasted growth from 344.4 billion yuan in 2024 to 804.2 billion yuan by 2029, representing a CAGR of 17.0% [13]. 2. Company Analysis - Cao Cao Mobility is the only "three-in-one" autonomous driving operation platform in China, leveraging significant synergies with Geely to build the largest customized vehicle fleet in the country [2][3]. - The company has a notable cost advantage with its customized vehicles, achieving a total cost of ownership (TCO) reduction of 33% and 40% compared to typical electric vehicles [2]. 3. Technological Developments - The report emphasizes the importance of autonomous driving technology, with Cao Cao Mobility planning to launch customized vehicles designed for Level 4 autonomous driving by the end of 2026, aiming for nationwide coverage [3][27]. - The market penetration of Robotaxi is expected to reach 20-60% between 2026 and 2032, indicating significant growth potential for autonomous driving services [3][41]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The report outlines a highly concentrated market with Didi Chuxing holding a 70.4% market share in 2024, while Cao Cao Mobility and T3 Mobility hold 5.4% and 5.3% respectively [16][17]. - The rise of aggregation platforms is leading to a decentralization of user traffic, allowing second-tier companies like Cao Cao Mobility to gain market share [19]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on the long-term development of the shared mobility industry, particularly on Cao Cao Mobility as a key player in the autonomous driving sector [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese ride-hailing market is transitioning from "wild growth" to "compliance and intelligence," with the core conflict shifting from capital subsidies to the institutional reconstruction of automated driving and human-vehicle relationships. The market is expected to reach nearly 1 trillion yuan by 2030, with opportunities arising for second-tier platforms due to the rise of aggregation platforms and Robotaxi technology breakthroughs [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The ride-hailing market is experiencing internal flow decentralization, with aggregation platforms capturing approximately 25%-30% of order share, creating structural opportunities for second-tier platforms [2]. - The Robotaxi, leveraging L4 autonomous driving technology, is seen as a key breakthrough, significantly reducing accident rates compared to human drivers by over 80% [2]. - The market is projected to grow to nearly 1 trillion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 20% [35]. Group 2: Company Performance - The company is actively expanding its market share through partnerships with aggregation platforms, achieving a 53.5% year-on-year increase in active drivers to 544,000 and a 57.4% increase in active users to 38 million in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 206.7 billion yuan in 2025, 262.4 billion yuan in 2026, and 323.7 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The company has developed a fleet of 37,000 customized vehicles, leading the industry and enhancing the standardization of travel experiences [3][15]. Group 3: Technological Integration - The company is integrating vehicle manufacturing, operational services, and technology research and development into a unified Robotaxi platform, aiming to replicate the success of its ride-hailing business [4]. - The launch of "Cao Cao Smart Travel" and the introduction of customized vehicles are part of the strategy to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [4][15]. - The company is leveraging its parent group’s resources to enhance research and development efficiency, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of L4 technology [4]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 146.6 billion yuan, a 37.4% year-on-year increase, driven by a significant rise in order volume and average order value [24]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from -4.4% in 2022 to 8.4% in the first half of 2025, reflecting effective cost control and increased customer spending [29]. - The company’s operational revenue is primarily derived from ride-hailing services, which accounted for 90.9% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [27].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Cao Cao Mobility has shown strong performance since its IPO, indicating robust market confidence in its investment value, with the stock price doubling from its initial offering price of 41.94 HKD to a peak of 92.5 HKD within a few months [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Cao Cao Mobility reported a significant increase in Gross Transaction Value (GTV) of 53.6% year-on-year, reaching 10.954 billion RMB [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 9.456 billion RMB, marking a 53.5% increase compared to the previous year [4] - The adjusted net loss narrowed to 3.3 billion RMB, with an adjusted net loss rate of 3.5%, improving by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Operating cash flow turned positive with a net inflow of 325 million RMB, reflecting a 164.6% increase year-on-year [4] Market Position and Growth Potential - Cao Cao Mobility has expanded its operational footprint to 163 cities, with a fleet of over 37,000 customized vehicles, and has entered 27 new cities [3] - The company is expected to maintain a GTV growth rate of over 40% in the coming years, driven by its strategic expansion and the introduction of new vehicle models [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched its autonomous driving platform, with plans to introduce L4 level Robotaxi models by the end of next year, positioning itself to benefit from the anticipated growth in the Robotaxi market [8] - The integration into the Hang Seng Composite Index is expected to attract additional mainland capital, enhancing trading activity and liquidity for the stock [2][14] Analyst Predictions - Analysts predict that Cao Cao Mobility will achieve adjusted net profit in the coming year, with target stock prices ranging from 98 to 108 HKD, indicating significant upside potential from current levels [15]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price performance of Cao Cao Mobility (曹操出行) post-IPO indicates strong market recognition of its investment value, with the stock price doubling from its IPO price of HKD 41.94 to a peak of HKD 92.5, signaling robust growth potential [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Cao Cao Mobility reported a significant increase in Gross Transaction Value (GTV) of 53.6% year-on-year, reaching RMB 10.954 billion [4]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 9.456 billion, marking a 53.5% increase compared to the previous year, with a notable improvement in gross margin, which rose by 1.4 percentage points to 8.4% [4]. - The adjusted net loss for the period was RMB 3.3 billion, with an adjusted net loss rate of 3.5%, showing a substantial improvement of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Market Expansion and User Growth - As of June 30, 2025, the company operated in 163 cities with a daily order volume of 2.108 million, reflecting a 50.6% increase year-on-year [4]. - The average monthly active users reached 38.1 million, up 57.4% year-on-year, and the average monthly active drivers increased by 53.5% to 554,000 [4]. Strategic Developments - Cao Cao Mobility has been approved for inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index, effective September 8, which is expected to attract additional mainland capital through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [2][14]. - The company plans to expand into 200 new cities this year and aims to sell 1.5-3.2 million customized vehicles from 2025 to 2027, leveraging its low Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) advantage [7][8]. Future Outlook - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth of Robotaxi services, with plans to launch L4-level Robotaxi models by the end of next year [8]. - Analysts predict that the Robotaxi segment could significantly enhance profitability, with expectations of a return to positive adjusted net profit by next year [7][15]. - The Robotaxi market in China is projected to reach RMB 1.6 trillion by 2035, with Cao Cao Mobility aiming for a 15% market share, potentially valuing this segment at RMB 240 billion [13].

Company Overview - Cao Cao Travel is a ride-hailing service platform incubated by Geely Group, with the actual controller holding approximately 77% of the shares [1] - The platform's total transaction volume is projected to reach 17 billion yuan in 2024, capturing a market share of 5.4%, ranking second in the industry [1] - From 2015 to 2020, the company built its capacity from scratch using a B2C model, leveraging the advantages of its parent automotive manufacturer [1] - Between 2021 and 2023, the company underwent a strategic transformation, shifting leadership from automotive backgrounds to professional ride-hailing managers, and introduced customized vehicles as a differentiation strategy [1] Industry Development - The ride-hailing industry is experiencing stable penetration growth, with an average daily passenger volume of 98 million in 2024, reflecting a 7.1% year-on-year increase [2] - The daily order volume for ride-hailing services in China is expected to reach 31.5 million in 2024, with penetration rates increasing from 10% in 2015 to 41% in 2022 [2] - The industry faces challenges due to low profit margins, with leading player Didi's adjusted EBITA/GTV expected to be 3.0%/4.0% in 2024/2025 Q1 [2] - The core of the industry is controlled by two networks (capacity and traffic), with the rise of aggregation platforms providing traffic access for smaller players [2] Key Insights - The company aims to achieve profitability through customized vehicles and is expected to reach a daily order volume of 2.29 million by 2025, with EBIT per order projected at -0.3 yuan [3] - The introduction of customized vehicles is expected to reduce driver vehicle ownership costs and enhance long-distance order volumes, with driver hourly wages at 36 yuan compared to the industry average of 27 yuan in 2024 [3] - Geely Group's integration of its smart driving business and plans to launch a dedicated L4 Robotaxi model by the end of 2026 positions the company for mid-term growth [3] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for the company are 20.9 billion, 27.5 billion, and 34.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 43%, 32%, and 26% respectively [4] - The company is expected to reach a net profit of -490 million, 100 million, and 510 million yuan in the same period [4] - The introduction of customized vehicles and Robotaxi services is anticipated to open new profit avenues, with a target price range of 98-108 HKD for 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Cao Cao Mobility has demonstrated strong financial performance following its Hong Kong IPO, with significant revenue growth and a narrowing loss, indicating a positive trend in its core business operations [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Cao Cao Mobility achieved revenue of 9.456 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.5%, and a gross profit of 796 million yuan, with a gross margin of 8.4%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company's loss narrowed by 39.8% compared to the previous year, reflecting a comprehensive optimization of its core financial metrics [1]. - The average monthly active users increased by 57.4% year-on-year, and the average monthly active drivers grew by 53.5% [3]. Market Expansion - Cao Cao Mobility expanded its service coverage to 163 cities, entering 27 new cities during the reporting period, with total order volume reaching 380 million, a 49% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company is developing a customized vehicle fleet, which differentiates it from competitors and enhances user experience [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The launch of the "Cao Cao Zhixing" autonomous driving platform and the initiation of Robotaxi pilot services in Suzhou and Hangzhou are key growth drivers, with over 15,000 kilometers of autonomous driving tests completed by the end of June [1]. - The company is collaborating with Geely and other partners to develop autonomous driving technology and customized vehicle applications [1]. Future Growth Potential - Analysts predict that Cao Cao Mobility will approach breakeven in 2024 and achieve significant profitability by 2027, driven by the scaling of its customized vehicle model and the reduction of subsidies in new cities [6]. - The Robotaxi business is expected to have a higher profit margin compared to traditional ride-hailing services due to reduced costs associated with driver payments [10]. Industry Trends - The regulatory environment is becoming more favorable for Robotaxi operations, with new policies allowing for commercial operations of L4 autonomous vehicles in select cities [9]. - The market for Robotaxi is projected to grow significantly, with cost advantages expected to increase as technology matures, potentially lowering operational costs to 0.9 yuan per kilometer by 2035 [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price range of HKD 98.00 to HKD 108.00, indicating a potential upside of 25% to 39% from the current price of HKD 81.25 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to reach a profitability inflection point through its customized vehicle strategy and is expected to benefit from the Robotaxi model, which will enhance its mid-term growth prospects [3][4]. - The report highlights the company's strategic shift from a B2C model to a focus on customized vehicles and partnerships with aggregation platforms, which is anticipated to improve operational efficiency and market penetration [2][3][31]. Company Overview - The company, Cao Cao Travel, is a leading ride-hailing platform backed by Geely Group, with a market share of 5.4% and a projected total transaction volume of RMB 17 billion in 2024 [1][16]. - The company has undergone a strategic transformation since 2021, shifting its management team from traditional automotive backgrounds to professionals with experience in the ride-hailing industry [18][20]. Industry Development - The ride-hailing industry in China is experiencing stable growth, with daily orders expected to reach 31.5 million in 2024, reflecting a penetration rate increase from 10% in 2015 to 41% in 2022 [2][52]. - The industry is characterized by a few dominant players, with the top player, Didi, expected to achieve an adjusted EBITA margin of 3.0% in 2024 [2]. Financial Analysis - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 20.9 billion, RMB 27.5 billion, and RMB 34.6 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 43%, 32%, and 26% [4][5]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 4.9 billion in 2025 to a profit of RMB 5.1 billion in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround in profitability [4][5]. Business Model - The company's core business is centered around ride-hailing services, which accounted for 92.6% of its revenue in 2024, with vehicle leasing and sales contributing marginally [23][24]. - The shift towards a light-asset model is expected to alleviate cost pressures and improve profitability, with a focus on customized vehicles and partnerships with local operators [29][30]. Growth Outlook - The company aims to expand its operations to 136 cities by the end of 2024, with a fleet of 34,000 customized vehicles, indicating a strong growth trajectory [16][18]. - The introduction of Robotaxi services is anticipated to further enhance the company's growth potential, with plans to launch a dedicated L4 Robotaxi model by the end of 2026 [3][4].

Group 1 - The shared mobility industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the market expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% from 2025 to 2029, and the company holds a 5.4% market share in 2024, primarily in strong consumer cities [1] - The company operates the largest customized ride-hailing fleet in the country, with a focus on cost-effective and high-quality service, achieving a total cost of ownership (TCO) that is 33% and 40% lower than typical electric vehicles for its customized models [1] - The company plans to launch the "Cao Cao Zhixing" platform in 2025, with initial vehicles based on the Lynk & Co Z10 model, aiming for a gross profit margin of over 40% by 2030 for its Robotaxi service, which is expected to significantly reduce driver costs [3] Group 2 - The company is implementing a strategy of "initial subsidy penetration followed by gradual reduction," with plans to expand into 85 new cities in 2024, leading to improved performance as penetration rates increase [2] - The company forecasts a turnaround in net profit from -1.05 billion yuan in 2025 to 730 million yuan in 2027, with an expected EBIT margin comparable to Didi's Q1 2025 levels [3] - The company's current target market value is estimated at 42.8 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 21% [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a ride-hailing platform under Geely Group, focusing on customized vehicle fleets and actively participating in the Robotaxi layout. It is expected to achieve a net profit of -1.05 billion, -0.08 billion, and 0.73 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profit margins of -5%, 0%, and 2% [6][7]. - The company is experiencing rapid revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase from 10.67 billion RMB in 2023 to 29.93 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.8% [5][6]. - The Robotaxi business is anticipated to contribute significantly to future profitability, with a potential gross margin exceeding 40% by 2030, driven by reduced driver costs [6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2015 and backed by Geely Group, aims to create a shared ecosystem for new energy vehicles. It has expanded its operations to include ride-hailing services, vehicle sales, and rentals [6][15]. - The company has achieved a market share of 5.4% in the ride-hailing industry, ranking second, and is expanding into lower-tier cities [6][47]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 10.67 billion RMB in 2023, 14.66 billion RMB in 2024, and reaching 20.51 billion RMB in 2025 [5][6]. - The company is projected to reduce its net loss from -1.91 billion RMB in 2023 to -1.05 billion RMB in 2025, with a path to profitability by 2027 [5][6]. Industry Analysis - The shared mobility market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% from 2025 to 2029, with the market size projected to reach 804.2 billion RMB [6][38]. - The Robotaxi segment is entering a phase of commercialization, with significant market potential as technology advances towards higher levels of automation [6][54]. Competitive Advantages - The company leverages a customized vehicle fleet strategy, enhancing service quality and optimizing cost control. The first-generation model, Maple 80V, and the second-generation model, Cao Cao 60, are designed specifically for ride-hailing services, offering competitive total cost of ownership (TCO) [6][63][66]. - The integration with Geely Group provides a comprehensive ecosystem that supports vehicle design, manufacturing, and operational efficiency, creating a competitive barrier [6][21].