Core Viewpoint - Citigroup predicts Ethereum's year-end target price at $4,300, which is lower than the current spot price, based on a model considering fundamental value, capital inflow potential, and macroeconomic environment [1][15]. Group 1: Value Capture and L2 Challenges - The report highlights that Ethereum's value is closely tied to its network activity as a smart contract platform, unlike Bitcoin's "digital gold" positioning [1]. - Recent growth in Ethereum's ecosystem activity is primarily occurring on Layer 2 (L2) networks, raising concerns about how much value L2 can translate back to the Ethereum mainnet [3]. - Citigroup assumes a 30% value transmission rate from L2 activities to the Ethereum mainnet, indicating that even with this assumption, Ethereum's current price exceeds the valuation derived from combined Layer 1 (L1) and L2 activities [3]. Group 2: Fundamental Value and Price Risks - Citigroup's model suggests that Ethereum's current price is above what its network activity can support, likely driven by recent ETF inflows and market excitement over tokenization use cases, indicating a risk of overvaluation in the short term [4]. - The report notes that while the inflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs can significantly impact prices (with every $1 billion inflow potentially raising prices by 6%), the overall inflow is expected to be much lower than that of Bitcoin [4][10]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment has a limited impact on Ethereum's price in the base case scenario, although it could become a key driver in a recession, particularly if the stock market declines [11][14]. - Citigroup's baseline scenario predicts a year-end price of $4,300, assuming moderate capital inflows and sustained market excitement about Ethereum's network use cases [15]. Group 4: Price Scenarios - In a bullish scenario, the price could reach $6,400, driven by significant increases in network activity and sustained demand from ETFs and treasury companies [15]. - Conversely, in a bearish scenario, the price could drop to $2,200, primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors such as a recession and stock market downturns [15]. Group 5: Overall Analysis Framework - The report provides a clear analytical framework for investors, affirming Ethereum's value as an application platform while pointing out its core shortcoming in capturing value from the L2 ecosystem [18].

Core Insights - The report by SlowMist highlights the increasing frequency of on-chain crimes in the cryptocurrency industry, with 531 security incidents reported from 2024 to the first half of 2025, resulting in losses exceeding $4.386 billion. Notably, Wallet Drainer phishing attacks alone caused approximately $534 million in losses [1][13]. Group 1: Introduction and Context - The rise in on-chain crimes includes various scams such as Ponzi schemes, phishing websites, and unauthorized access to exchanges, leading to significant financial losses [13]. - The anonymity of cryptocurrencies complicates the identification of malicious activities, making cross-border cooperation and asset freezing challenging [13][14]. - The report emphasizes the necessity for all participants in the crypto ecosystem to understand on-chain tracking knowledge as a fundamental skill [14][15]. Group 2: On-Chain Tracking Fundamentals - The handbook introduces basic concepts of on-chain tracking, covering major public chains and cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, TRON, and BNB Chain, as well as stablecoins like USDT and USDC [1][19]. - It explains core tracking concepts such as hot wallets, cold wallets, deposit addresses, contract addresses, transaction hashes, and various blockchain operations [1][25][26]. Group 3: Tools and Techniques for Tracking - The report discusses blockchain explorers, highlighting Etherscan's functionalities, which allow users to check address balances, token holdings, and transaction details [2]. - It introduces SlowMist's MistTrack tool, which features AML risk scoring and address tagging, supporting multi-chain tracking and cross-chain analysis [2][3]. - Common patterns of fund movement are analyzed, including peel chains, one-to-many distributions, and the use of mixers and cross-chain bridges [2][11]. Group 4: Response Strategies for Asset Theft - The handbook outlines measures to take in the event of asset theft, including loss prevention, preserving evidence, preliminary analysis, contacting professionals, and filing reports [2][11]. - It emphasizes the importance of multi-role collaboration in asset freezing and recovery efforts [2][11]. Group 5: Advanced Tracking Techniques - The report delves into tracking methods for cross-chain bridges, privacy tools, and NFTs, providing case studies for better understanding [2][11]. - It discusses address behavior analysis, including active behavior feature recognition and address clustering, and mentions the application of AI tools in on-chain analysis [2][11].

Group 1 - Ethereum's price has increased by 5.44% in recent months, currently trading above $3,828, with a trading volume growth of 21.66% reaching $33.16 billion [1] - Ethereum's market capitalization stands at $462.22 billion, indicating bullish sentiment among investors regarding its status as a leading smart contract platform [1] Group 2 - A potential rise of Ethereum (ETH) to $10,000 would likely trigger a chain reaction affecting DeFi projects, cryptocurrency staking platforms, and other low market cap crypto projects that are based on or interoperable with Ethereum [3] - After ETH stabilizes, attention is expected to shift towards future crypto projects that can offer scalability, low gas fees, and practical utility [3]