最廉可交割券(CTD)
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国债期货入门指南:品种和概念介绍
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-07 09:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report is an introductory guide to treasury bond futures, detailing the characteristics and concepts of various treasury bond futures products, which offer efficient and flexible interest rate risk hedging tools for financial market participants, deepening China's bond market and promoting the process of interest rate liberalization [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Basic Varieties - There are 4 treasury bond futures products listed on the China Financial Futures Exchange, covering different maturities. Each product has 4 fixed contracts per year with delivery months in March, June, September, and December, but only the nearest three quarterly contracts are traded [12]. - The contract underlying the 2 - year treasury bond futures has a face value of 2 million yuan, while the others have a face value of 1 million yuan, all with a nominal coupon rate of 3%. Shorter - term futures have lower minimum margin ratios, with the 2 - year futures at 0.5% (200 - fold leverage) and the 30 - year at 3.5% (28 - fold leverage) [12]. - In terms of open interest, the 10 - year futures has the largest scale (280,000 lots), followed by the 5 - year and 30 - year (180,000 lots), and the 2 - year has the lowest (80,000 lots). In 2025, the average daily trading volumes of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures were 40,000, 70,000, 90,000, and 120,000 lots respectively, with the long - term varieties having relatively higher trading volumes and the 30 - year having a leading trading proportion [13][15]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Basic Concepts - The concepts include the main contract, continuous contract, deliverable bonds, conversion factors, CTD (cheapest - to - deliver bond), treasury bond futures pricing, basis, net basis, and implied repo rate (IRR), which together reveal arbitrage opportunities and market relationships [20]. 3.3 Main Contract - The main contract is the one with the largest trading volume, open interest, and market influence in a particular variety, reflecting market expectations and supply - demand relationships for interest rates. It is usually the current - quarter contract due to high hedging and arbitrage demand and optimal liquidity. When the current - quarter contract approaches the delivery month, the next - quarter contract takes over as the main contract [21]. 3.4 Continuous Contract - The continuous contract is a virtual contract sequence created to connect the prices of individual treasury bond futures contracts with different maturities, facilitating technical analysis, back - testing, and long - term trend observation. Wind uses the "post - adjustment method" to eliminate price gaps during contract switching [22]. 3.5 Deliverable Bonds and Conversion Factors - To ensure standardization and continuity of treasury bond futures, the contract underlying is a virtual standard bond. The conversion factor is used to standardize different deliverable bonds, calculated as the present value of a deliverable bond's future cash flows discounted at the coupon rate of the virtual standard bond and divided by the face value. The invoice price in actual delivery is calculated as the futures settlement price × conversion factor × face value+accrued interest [25]. 3.6 CTD (Cheapest - to - Deliver Bond) - CTD is the bond with the lowest delivery cost among the basket of deliverable bonds, determined by calculating the delivery net cost (bond market price - (futures settlement price × conversion factor)). Its influencing factors include conversion factors, market interest rate fluctuations, and bond liquidity. Empirically, when the market yield > 3%, low - coupon, long - duration bonds are more likely to be CTD; when < 3%, high - coupon, short - duration bonds are more likely [33][35][36]. 3.7 Treasury Bond Futures Pricing - Pricing is based on the "no - arbitrage principle." In an efficient and frictionless market, the futures settlement price = spot bond net price+interest income - financing cost - coupon income. Considering the seller's option value in the delivery rules, the actual formula is futures settlement price+option value = spot bond net price+interest income - financing cost - coupon income [39][41]. 3.8 Basis - The basis in treasury bond futures represents the "holding cost" or "return" of holding a spot treasury bond and hedging through short - selling futures contracts. It is calculated as the net price of the deliverable bond - (futures settlement price × conversion factor of the deliverable bond), and is affected by interest income, financing cost, and short - seller option value [42][43]. 3.9 Net Basis - The net basis is the basis minus the net return during the holding period, directly reflecting the short - seller option value of a particular futures variety, with the CTD having the highest net basis [44][45]. 3.10 Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - IRR measures the theoretical annualized return of a basis trade ("buy spot, sell futures") held until delivery. When IRR > market risk - free rate, there is an arbitrage opportunity; when <, there may be a reverse arbitrage opportunity, but it is not risk - free. The CTD has the highest IRR [48].