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光大期货软商品日报-20250730
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:09
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is expected to be volatile. Internationally, the focus is on the Sino - US negotiation results and the Fed's July interest - rate meeting and September interest - rate cut expectations. Domestically, the 09 contract of cotton is unlikely to decline significantly due to tight spot inventory, while the 01 contract is mainly driven by the macro - level tone after the end - of - month important meeting [2]. - The sugar market is also expected to be volatile. The Brazilian new crushing data is about to be released, and the domestic spot market is worried about imports. The 9 - 1 reverse spread of sugar futures is effective, and the future upside of the futures price is limited under the pressure of hedging [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton dropped 1%, closing at 67.66 cents per pound. CF509 decreased 1.87% to 13,925 yuan per ton, with the main - contract positions decreasing by 55,334 hands to 413,700 hands. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,431 yuan per ton, down 42 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,580 yuan per ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: Analysts expect the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July to be 48.3 million tons, a 11.3% year - on - year increase; sugar production to be 3.3 million tons, a 12.5% increase; and ethanol production to be 2.19 billion liters, a 2.3% increase. The spot quotes of sugar in different regions have different trends, and the domestic futures price rebounds slightly following the raw sugar [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 100 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1,655 yuan, an increase of 121 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,431 yuan per ton, down 42 yuan, and the national price was 15,580 yuan per ton, down 29 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 140 yuan, a decrease of 24 yuan; the main - contract basis was 208 yuan, a decrease of 22 yuan. The spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 6,050 yuan per ton and 6,075 yuan per ton respectively, both unchanged [3]. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,156, a decrease of 70 from the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions varied. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, down 0.1 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.5, down 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.8, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.4, unchanged [4]. - **Sugar**: On July 29, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 19,746, a decrease of 404 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff - quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][9][11][13][15][16][18] Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry and has won many awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass and has also won multiple honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy and has won relevant titles [22].