有底无顶的慢牛
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中金缪延亮:“有底无顶”的慢牛如何形成?——新秩序,新动能,新生态
中金点睛· 2026-01-19 01:31
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "bottomless top" in the context of the A-share market, suggesting that the market is currently in a slow bull phase, which is characterized by gradually rising highs and lows, contrasting with the historical volatility of the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Significance of "Bottomless Top" Slow Bull - A "bottomless top" slow bull market supports a healthy capital market, which is crucial for enhancing China's international status, improving economic growth quality, and facilitating industrial upgrades [4]. - Strengthening the RMB as a "functional anchor" is essential for establishing a financial powerhouse, with a sustainable return rate from a slow bull market attracting global capital [4]. - Improving residents' income expectations through capital market returns can create a positive feedback loop for consumption, especially in the context of current asset scarcity [5]. Group 2: Reasons for Past A-share Market's Inability to Form a Slow Bull - The A-share market has historically struggled to establish a slow bull due to its high volatility and frequent bull-bear cycles, with only 51% of months showing gains compared to 66% in the S&P 500 [8][12]. - The market has experienced a high frequency of large monthly gains, indicating a tendency for rapid price increases that can deplete future expectations [8][12]. - Structural characteristics of the Chinese economy, such as reliance on capital formation and real estate, contribute to the "pulse-like" nature of earnings cycles, leading to frequent fluctuations [12][20]. Group 3: Current Conditions Favoring a Slow Bull in A-share Market - The current A-share market is better positioned for a slow bull than ever before, driven by the restructuring of the international monetary order and the resilience of the Chinese economy [30]. - Economic transformation and the emergence of new growth drivers, such as manufacturing and innovation, are expected to enhance the sustainability of profit growth [31][32]. - Recent reforms, including the new "National Nine Articles," aim to address imbalances in investment and financing, improving the overall market environment [39][40]. Group 4: Challenges to Sustaining a Slow Bull - Despite favorable conditions, challenges remain in the form of structural issues in the economy, regulatory frameworks, and the need for a balanced investment environment [61][62]. - The implementation of the new "National Nine Articles" and the need for improved financial hedging tools are critical for stabilizing the market and enhancing investor confidence [62][63]. - Attracting long-term capital from both domestic and international sources is essential for sustaining the slow bull, necessitating further reforms and openness in the market [63].