中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 2026年两会前瞻：五大看点 >>点击图片查看全文<< 全国两会即将召开，我们认为在两会期间主要关注以下看点：1）十五五纲要，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，两会期间全国人大会议将审查国民 经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案，相关中长期改革有望逐步部署、实施。2）扩大国内需求，稳定经济增长。3）建设全国统一大市场。 4）化解重点领域风险。5）两会期间可能安排及重要事项。我们认为受益于积极政策及改革预期、中外流动性宽松周期共振、AI技术革命与能源 革命支撑部分产业需求，带动上市公司业绩改善，市场"稳进"趋势有望延续。结构上，受益于两会政策预期的板块通常表现出超额收益，今年两会 期间建议重点关注顺周期、科技成长等领域。 2026.2.25 | 李求索 李瑾等 02 中金研究 CICC Research 一文看懂春节数据 >>点击图片查看全文<< 2026年春节假期数据出炉，总体来看消费景气度得到提升。在本文中，我们从宏观、策略、轻工零售美妆、旅游酒店及餐饮、纺织服装珠宝、传 媒、互联网等角度为大家详细解读。 202 ...

Market Overview - A-shares concluded February with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving three consecutive monthly gains, and daily trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan have become the norm [1][20] - On February 27, the three major indices showed mixed results, with over 3,200 stocks rising and a total trading volume of 2.51 trillion yuan, slightly down by 504 billion yuan from the previous day [1][20] Sector Performance - The small metals sector surged, with rare earth prices continuing to rise, leading to a wave of limit-up stocks including Hunan Gold [21][23] - The chemical sector also performed well, with the chemical ETF achieving four consecutive daily gains, reaching its highest point since January 2022 [21][23] AI and Technology Impact - China's AI token usage surpassed that of the US for the first time, indicating a potential benefit for domestic computing power [21][29] - The cloud computing sector is entering a price increase cycle, with the big data ETF seeing a significant price increase [21][29] Electricity Sector - The electricity sector experienced a strong rally, with the electricity ETF rising by 2.64%, reaching a new high since its listing [2][26] - The demand for electricity is expected to increase due to the growth of AI, making it a defensive investment in the current market environment [2][29] Medical Sector - The largest medical ETF in the market saw a price increase of 1.14%, recovering its annual line, with significant net subscriptions in the previous days [2][29] - The medical sector is expected to benefit from the growth of the CXO model, with strong performance from companies like WuXi AppTec [12][29] Investment Recommendations - Focus on cyclical commodities such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products, as well as sectors related to technology and national strength, such as military and new energy [22] - The medical sector is recommended for investment, particularly in areas like AI healthcare and medical devices, which are expected to see significant growth [15][16]

国外 1. 瑞银：下调美股配置至中性，资金全球化分散趋势渐显 金十数据2月27日讯，瑞银表示，已将美国股票的投资建议下调至中性，因美股在其他地区增长加速之 际恐将落后。策略师列举的原因包括：美国企业盈利对全球增长的敏感度相对较低、估值偏高、资金向 美国以外分散的趋势以及美元的下行风险等。他们表示："美国是各主要地区中经营杠杆最低的，因此 若全球增速升至3.5%以上，从历史看美股表现将落后。"瑞银预计2026年全球GDP增速为3.4%。随着科 技巨头回报减弱及国内政策制定陷入混乱，全球投资者正从美股撤离，寻求替代选择。美元疲软是另一 个推动因素。策略师表示，从我们在北美市场的营销情况看，资金无疑将流向全球。ETF资金流显示分 散化正在发生。尽管如此，美国市场规模庞大，即使是中性配置也仍将占较大比重，美国股票在MSCI 全球股票指数中占比超过70%。(金十数据APP) 2. 高盛：英伟达强劲财报难阻股价下跌，利好兑现压力显现 高盛指出，尽管英伟达(NVDA.O)营收同比增长73%，且对人工智能业务前景给出乐观指引，但该股仍 下跌4.5%，拖累半导体板块及标普500指数走低。分析师称，这反映出"卖事实"行情、获利了 ...

｜2026年2月27日 星期五｜ 中信证券研报认为，展望未来3—5年，保险公司总体上将继续受益于严监管、反内卷的竞争环境，老七 家市场份额有望继续集中；在低利率环境下，储蓄存款向保险公司迁移，是银行、保险公司、客户共赢 的结果，这一趋势有望长期持续，并形成耐心资本、大力支持股市债市和实体经济发展。展望2026年一 季报和中报，在2025年低基数基础上，保单销售、投资收益、利润增长均具有较高确定性，近期AI叙 事调整带来右侧投资窗口，建议重点关注新业务价值增速快、盈利和派息稳定、估值较低的头部公司。 免责声明：本内容与数据仅供参考，不构成交易建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 NO.1中金公司：2026年国际货币秩序重构仍是全球资产主线 每日经济新闻 中金公司研报称，2026年国际货币秩序重构仍是全球资产的主线。2025年是国际货币秩序重构加速之 年，2026年该趋势仍将延续，这些趋势支持中国股票和黄金延续牛市，并有利于中国股票跑赢美股。 NO.2中信建投：国产白蛋白批签发占比提升，新产品研发持续推进 中信建投研报称，2025年，国内血制品行业中白蛋白、静丙、纤原批签发保持稳健，其中国产白蛋白签 发批次占 ...

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of the international monetary order will continue to be the main theme for global assets in 2026, supporting a bull market for Chinese stocks and gold, and favoring Chinese stocks over U.S. stocks [1][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Review and Insights on Global and Chinese Assets in 2025 - Gold led the global market with a 67% increase in 2025, marking the highest annual gain since 1980. Copper also performed well among non-ferrous metals [2]. - The U.S. dollar depreciated, with a nearly 10% drop in the dollar index, while emerging market stocks rose by 31%, outperforming U.S. stocks for the first time since 2017 [2]. - Chinese stocks ranked high globally, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 50% and the CSI 300 Index increasing by 18%, both achieving their largest annual gains in five years [2]. 2. Key Trends in Asset Performance - The weakening dollar historically correlates with strong performance in gold and non-U.S. assets. The AI technology revolution has bolstered both U.S. and Chinese tech sectors, driving up prices of related resources like copper [3]. - The A-share market saw a 28% increase in 2025, primarily due to a decline in risk premiums, with significant contributions from the tech sector [3]. 3. New Paradigms in Chinese Asset Revaluation - The current bull market is fundamentally a revaluation of tech assets, with the price-to-earnings ratio of leading Hong Kong tech stocks narrowing from a 60% discount to U.S. counterparts [4]. - There has been an acceleration of long-term capital entering the A-share market, with insurance holdings in stocks and funds growing to 5.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from 2024 [4]. 4. Market Dynamics and Capital Flows - The "asset scarcity" phenomenon is deepening, with low returns on traditional savings driving capital into the stock market, where the CSI 300 index offers a dividend yield of 2.7% [5]. - Southbound capital inflows through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 1.4 trillion HKD in 2025, increasing the influence of domestic capital on the Hong Kong market [6]. 5. Consensus on Market Outlook for 2026 - Three major consensus points have emerged: the continuation of bull markets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, ongoing bull markets in gold, and the potential underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to Chinese assets [7]. - The underlying logic of these consensus points is tied to the accelerated restructuring of the international monetary order, which is expected to influence capital flows significantly [8]. 6. Investment Strategy for 2026 - The recommended asset allocation includes overweighting Chinese stocks and gold, with standard allocations to commodities, U.S. stocks, and U.S. Treasuries, while underweighting Chinese government bonds [17]. - Specific sectors to focus on include AI-related industries, overseas expansion opportunities, cyclical reversals in chemicals and energy, and high-dividend stocks in a low-interest environment [17][18].

中金公司研报称，2026年国际货币秩序重构仍是全球资产的主线。2025年是国际货币秩序重构加速之 年，2026年该趋势仍将延续，这些趋势支持中国股票和 黄金延续牛市，并有利于中国股票跑赢美股。 针对市场目前的分歧，中金公司认为该趋势也能提供关键论据：第一是关于中国股票牛市的节奏，货币 秩序重构的"新秩序"不会一蹴而就，全球资金更新认知是一个过程，目前该逻辑仍在强化中，有利于市 场慢牛，中国资产重估仍在途中。第二是关于"沃什冲击"对美联储宽松的影响，考虑政治约束、经济约 束与市场约束，当前美联储不具备激进缩表条件。而且沃什可能推动美联储降息 超市场预期，无法扭 转美联储信誉和美元资产安全性下降的问题。第三是美股AI泡沫风险，中金公司认为从AI能够切实提 高生产力，并且没有系统性的杠杆和债务风险，在全球资金再布局的背景下，优质资产的估值往往有较 高的容忍度，整体表现并不差。资产配置建议：超配中国股票和黄金，标配 大宗商品、美股和美债， 低配中国国债。 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 回顾2025年，全球资产格局发生深刻变化，美元明显贬值，非美资产跑赢美元资产，中国资产开始重估，黄金创出过去40年最大年度涨幅。新的资产格局 之下，市场形成三大共识。2026年初资产波动加大，市场分歧也日益明显。三大市场共识背后，是否存在一以贯之的主线？展望未来，市场的共识能否兑 现？如何看待当下市场的关键分歧？本篇报告将从国际货币秩序重构的视角出发，剖析2025年的资产启示，破局2026年市场的共识与分歧。 一、 2025年全球与中国资产回顾与启示 全球市场黄金与中国股 票领 涨，非美资产跑赢美元资产，美元贬值。 回顾2025年全球主要大类资产以美元计价的表现（图表1），有几个突出特征： 1） 黄金表现最好， 2025年涨幅67%，涨幅也创下了1980年以来的最大年涨幅，有色金属中具备较强金融属性的铜也涨幅靠前。 2）美元贬值，非美资产跑 赢， 美元成为去年表现最差的资产之一，美元指数跌幅接近10%，标普500代表的美股上涨16%，新兴市场股票上涨31%，2017年以来首次跑赢美股。 3） 中国股票涨幅在全球股市排名靠前， 受益AI产业趋势的A股创业板指上涨近50%，沪深300指数全 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the market is expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by over 12 billion yuan of net inflow into the CSI A500 ETF (159338) over the past 60 days [1] - Recent regulatory policies are anticipated to guide market sentiment back to rationality, enhancing the inherent stability of the market [1] - The investment focus is expected to shift from macro liquidity drivers to micro performance verification as the annual earnings forecasts of listed companies are set to be disclosed intensively in late January [1] Group 2 - The CSI A500 index emphasizes industry balance and leading companies in specific sectors, offering a more diversified style and higher growth exposure, which provides a better Beta base during the industrial structure upgrade cycle [1] - As of the end of 2025, the CSI A500 index has increased by 464.28% since its base date, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has risen by 361.15%, resulting in an excess return of 103.13 percentage points [1] - The number of accounts for the Guotai CSI A500 ETF is the highest among similar products, being more than three times that of the second-ranked product, indicating a growing interest among investors [1]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 4103.53, down 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component at 14102.21, down 0.38%, and the ChiNext Index at 3270.13, down 0.24% [1] Government Policy Announcements - The Ministry of Finance announced that the new government debt scale for 2025 will be 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [1] - Starting from April 1, 2026, export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will be canceled, and electronic product export tax rebates will be phased out over two years [1] - Tax and fee preferential policies for community family services, including elderly care and childcare, will be extended from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, with VAT exemptions and reduced taxable income calculations [1] Commodity Market Developments - Shanghai released an action plan to enhance the linkage between spot and futures markets for non-ferrous metals, aiming for higher levels of institutional openness [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted margin ratios and price limits for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts [2] - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were raised by 85 yuan per ton, with an increase of 0.07 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 gasoline and 0 diesel [2] Corporate Announcements - Yifan Transmission announced plans to acquire 87.07% of Beijing Helish, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [3] - Kangxin New Materials plans to acquire 51% of Yubang Semiconductor for 392 million yuan, marking a strategic shift towards the semiconductor industry [3] - Yonghui Supermarket expects a net loss of 2.14 billion yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 1.47 billion yuan in the previous year [3] - Hikvision reported a net profit of 14.188 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 18.46% year-on-year [3] Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.06%, marking its largest single-day drop since October of the previous year [3] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.44%, reflecting a broader downturn in popular Chinese concept stocks [3] Economic Insights - CICC's report highlights that the restructuring of the international monetary order is a core driver of the current A-share bull market, with the policy shift in September 2024 being a foundational element [8] - Huaxi Securities interprets that counter-cyclical regulatory policies are essential for avoiding extreme market conditions, while Guangfa Securities expresses optimism about the market's performance in the upcoming month [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "bottomless top" in the context of the A-share market, suggesting that the market is currently in a slow bull phase, which is characterized by gradually rising highs and lows, contrasting with the historical volatility of the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Significance of "Bottomless Top" Slow Bull - A "bottomless top" slow bull market supports a healthy capital market, which is crucial for enhancing China's international status, improving economic growth quality, and facilitating industrial upgrades [4]. - Strengthening the RMB as a "functional anchor" is essential for establishing a financial powerhouse, with a sustainable return rate from a slow bull market attracting global capital [4]. - Improving residents' income expectations through capital market returns can create a positive feedback loop for consumption, especially in the context of current asset scarcity [5]. Group 2: Reasons for Past A-share Market's Inability to Form a Slow Bull - The A-share market has historically struggled to establish a slow bull due to its high volatility and frequent bull-bear cycles, with only 51% of months showing gains compared to 66% in the S&P 500 [8][12]. - The market has experienced a high frequency of large monthly gains, indicating a tendency for rapid price increases that can deplete future expectations [8][12]. - Structural characteristics of the Chinese economy, such as reliance on capital formation and real estate, contribute to the "pulse-like" nature of earnings cycles, leading to frequent fluctuations [12][20]. Group 3: Current Conditions Favoring a Slow Bull in A-share Market - The current A-share market is better positioned for a slow bull than ever before, driven by the restructuring of the international monetary order and the resilience of the Chinese economy [30]. - Economic transformation and the emergence of new growth drivers, such as manufacturing and innovation, are expected to enhance the sustainability of profit growth [31][32]. - Recent reforms, including the new "National Nine Articles," aim to address imbalances in investment and financing, improving the overall market environment [39][40]. Group 4: Challenges to Sustaining a Slow Bull - Despite favorable conditions, challenges remain in the form of structural issues in the economy, regulatory frameworks, and the need for a balanced investment environment [61][62]. - The implementation of the new "National Nine Articles" and the need for improved financial hedging tools are critical for stabilizing the market and enhancing investor confidence [62][63]. - Attracting long-term capital from both domestic and international sources is essential for sustaining the slow bull, necessitating further reforms and openness in the market [63].