Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is currently facing three major challenges: insufficient effective credit demand, increased risk prevention pressure, and sustainable profitability under pressure [5][6][8]. Group 1: Insufficient Effective Credit Demand - Effective credit demand is weak, evidenced by a decline in overall loan demand, with a cumulative increase of 12.31 trillion yuan in RMB loans from January to July 2025, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.07 trillion yuan [8][10]. - Corporate loans have increased overall, but medium to long-term corporate loans have seen a continuous year-on-year decline for eight consecutive quarters, with a cumulative increase of 6.91 trillion yuan from January to July 2025, down by 1.3 trillion yuan year-on-year [10][12]. - The trend of deleveraging in the household sector is evident, with household loans increasing by only 680.7 billion yuan, accounting for just 5.3% of new loans, a significant year-on-year decrease of 569.4 billion yuan [14][15]. - Bond financing is increasingly substituting loans, with local governments actively restructuring debt, issuing 2.11 trillion yuan in bonds in the first half of 2025, a substantial year-on-year increase of 125% [15][16]. Group 2: Increased Risk Prevention Pressure - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the non-performing loan balance of commercial banks reached 3.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.1 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, with a slight decrease in the non-performing loan ratio from 1.50% to 1.49% [16][17]. - The pressure on provisions is significant, with the provision coverage ratio at 211.97% as of the end of the second quarter [17]. - Retail credit remains in a risk release cycle, with the non-performing loan ratio for retail loans among 23 A-share listed banks at 1.44%, a year-on-year increase of 21 basis points [18][20]. - Credit risk management pressure for corporate loans persists due to various factors, including the exit of platform companies and the clearing of the real estate market [18][19]. Group 3: Sustainable Profitability Under Pressure - The net interest margin has been continuously narrowing, with the net interest margin for commercial banks dropping to 1.42% in the first half of the year, down from 1.74% in the first quarter of 2023 [21][22]. - Non-interest income has also faced challenges, with an average year-on-year decline of 1.87% in the first quarter of 2025, influenced by market volatility [21][22]. - The decline in non-interest income is attributed to a significant drop in investment income and fair value changes, with a 3.18% year-on-year decrease in other non-interest income [21][22]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - The banking industry should increase credit investment in an orderly manner, focusing on priority areas and strengthening strategic cooperation with local enterprises [23][24]. - Continuous optimization of asset allocation is necessary to enhance comprehensive financial service capabilities, targeting high-quality assets and improving industry-specific service capabilities [27][28]. - Adjusting the liability structure and managing capital and credit risk costs are crucial, with strategies including deepening transaction banking services and enhancing credit risk management [28][29]. - There is a need for counter-cyclical policy adjustments to support the banking sector, including innovative monetary tools and fiscal policy support [29][30].

昨晚招行公布了24年的年报， 今天，A股招行大跌近-5.4%，港股招行大跌近-5.5% ，由于招行在中证银行指数中占比达到16%，因此光招行一 家的下跌，就导致指数下跌-0.86%左右，而指数本身仅下跌-1.44%，也就是说，招行一己之力今天带动了银行股垫底的行情。 从交易量来看，银行股今天合计230亿多的交易量，招行一家占比30%左右，市场对招行年报的关注度，不可谓不高。 和去年一样，提前补充一下，招行作为全中国最好的商业银行之一，更多的还是以点带面，说说银行业的实际情况，以及春江水暖鸭先知，通过 银行业，了解下宏观和微观经济的实际情况。 去年此时，我们就招行23年的年报，写过《 招行年报里的十大真相 》，大家比较爱看，因为分析的角度还算全面，跳出银行看银行，讲了比较 多宏观的因素。 ...... 今天，我们继续。 从财报发布开始，市场里的解读已经不少了，赞歌不少，但干货不多。 不可忽视的是，从招行的年报中，我们可以看到， 银行业，正面临着近20年罕见的经营环境 ——2024年，招行的ROE（净资产收益率）下滑到 15%以下，是2004年以来首次。 我们知道，银行归根到底是经营杠杆的行业，1块钱的资本金，能 ...