2025.09.01 本文字数：3300，阅读时长大约5.5分钟 作者 |第一财经 王方然 近期存款"搬家"声浪渐起，多份券商研报称，居民存款正持续向基金、理财等资管产品转移。 从最新财报来看，今年上半年，大行负债端仍"按兵不动"，13家主要商业银行个人存款余额合计为 112.07万亿元，同比增加11.9万亿元，工行、农行等增幅显著。与此同时，"搬家"分流至理财市场的倾 向略有"冒头"，多家银行上半年财富管理业务收入实现大幅增长。 第一财经还注意到，上半年存款定期化趋势依然存在。但业内认为，随着存款利率持续走低，加上定存 集中到期重定价，银行负债端成本有望较大幅度改善。Choice数据显示，今年上半年，上述13家银行的 存款平均成本率为1.61%，较2024年上半年下降34BP（基点）。 尽管如此，多数银行净息差仍存在压力。根据国家金融监督管理总局数据，2025年第二季度商业银行净 息差环比继续收窄，已降至1.42%。近期中期业绩发布会上，多家大行提及，主要是受LPR（贷款市场 报价利率）下调、存量房贷利率调整等因素影响。 银行存款是否"分流"？ 中国银河证券研究院在研报中表示，存款搬家是居民将银行存款转移到 ...

存款利率持续走低，加上定存集中到期重定价，银行负债端成本有望较大幅度改善。 近期存款"搬家"声浪渐起，多份券商研报称，居民存款正持续向基金、理财等资管产品转移。 从最新财报来看，今年上半年，大行负债端仍"按兵不动"，13家主要商业银行个人存款余额合计为112.07万亿元，同比增加11.9万亿元，工行、农行等增幅 显著。与此同时，"搬家"分流至理财市场的倾向略有"冒头"，多家银行上半年财富管理业务收入实现大幅增长。 第一财经还注意到，上半年存款定期化趋势依然存在。但业内认为，随着存款利率持续走低，加上定存集中到期重定价，银行负债端成本有望较大幅度改 善。Choice数据显示，今年上半年，上述13家银行的存款平均成本率为1.61%，较2024年上半年下降34BP（基点）。 尽管如此，多数银行净息差仍存在压力。根据国家金融监督管理总局数据，2025年第二季度商业银行净息差环比继续收窄，已降至1.42%。近期中期业绩发 布会上，多家大行提及，主要是受LPR（贷款市场报价利率）下调、存量房贷利率调整等因素影响。 其中，个人存款余额增长最多的是工商银行。财报显示，截至2025年上半年末，工商银行的个人存款余额为19.83 ...

下半年政府债发行还将为社融提供有力支撑，但考虑剩余额度情况，支持的力度可能逐步放 缓，届时信贷能否接力将对社融表现有重要影响 政府债券继续支撑社会融资规模增长。 8月13日下午，中国人民银行发布7月金融统计数据。 数据显示，2025年前七个月，社会融资规模增加了23.99万亿元，比上年同期多增5.12万亿元。截至2025 年7月末，社会融资规模余额为431.26万亿元，同比增长9%，创近17个月新高。 其中，政府债券前七个月净融资8.9万亿元，同比多4.88万亿元。 据东方金诚测算，7月社会融资规模增长1.16万亿元，同比多增3839亿元，为连续第八个月同比多增。 "7月社融延续同比多增态势，仍主要受政府债券融资支撑。7月新增专项债发行量同比大幅增加，带动 当月政府债券融资同比多增5559亿。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示。 "7月政府债券净融资约1.24万亿元，同比多增约5600亿元，依然是拉动社融的主力。"中信证券首席经 济学家明明亦表示，下半年政府债发行还将为社融提供有力支撑，但考虑剩余额度情况，支持的力度可 能逐步放缓，届时信贷能否接力将对社融表现有重要影响。 从信贷方面来看，2025年前七个月，人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The retail banking sector is facing challenges with slowing credit growth and increasing reliance on time deposits, prompting banks to adjust their internal assessment metrics to enhance the quality of retail deposits and assets [1][3][5]. Group 1: Retail Banking Challenges - Several banks are experiencing a slowdown in retail credit growth, with some reporting negative growth in personal loans [1]. - The trend of increasing time deposits is leading to a decline in the proportion of revenue generated from retail banking [1][3]. - The shift towards time deposits is putting pressure on the growth of demand deposits, which are typically lower-cost liabilities for banks [5][7]. Group 2: Adjustments in Assessment Metrics - A major bank has recently revised key retail business assessment indicators to focus on increasing demand deposit growth and reducing interest rates on retail deposits [2][4]. - The bank plans to enhance rewards for low-cost deposit acquisition and differentiate assessments based on deposit types and terms [4]. - The emphasis on low-cost demand deposits is reflected in the rising proportion of these metrics in internal assessments [4]. Group 3: Deposit Structure and Trends - As of the end of 2024, major banks like China Merchants Bank (CMB) have a retail deposit scale of approximately 4.03 trillion, with demand deposits accounting for 21.54% of total customer deposits [5]. - Other banks, such as Ping An Bank and Minsheng Bank, show lower proportions of demand deposits, at 9.97% and 9.16% respectively [5][6]. - Overall, the trend of deposit "regularization" is strengthening, with demand deposits under pressure across the industry [10][11]. Group 4: Interest Rate Management - Banks are increasingly focusing on managing deposit interest rates to optimize costs, with CMB reporting a steady improvement in deposit costs [13][14]. - Ping An Bank's average interest rate on deposits decreased by 41 basis points year-on-year, indicating a trend towards lower-cost funding [13]. - The overall industry is witnessing a rise in the proportion of time deposits, with household time deposits reaching a historical high in May [11][12]. Group 5: Focus on High-Quality AUM - Banks are shifting their focus towards acquiring "high-quality AUM" (Assets Under Management) by enhancing rewards for net growth in AUM and incorporating insurance trust contributions [15]. - CMB leads in retail AUM, managing approximately 15.57 trillion, while other banks like Ping An and CITIC Bank are in the 4 trillion to 6 trillion range [16][17]. - The emphasis on AUM quality reflects a broader strategy to improve customer service capabilities and operational efficiency in retail banking [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The Jiangsu Bank Index has decreased by 0.5% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.5% and the ChiNext Index by 3.6%. Despite a decline in trading sentiment for bank stocks, the core investment logic remains solid [2][6] - The trend of deposit regularization has stabilized in the first half of the year, with the proportion of RMB time deposits at 73.1% as of the end of June, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a marginal improvement in deposit regularization pressure for listed banks [2][9][50] - The average dividend yield of the six major state-owned banks' A-shares has fallen to 3.91%, with a spread of 225 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield, while the average yield for H-shares is 4.89%, showing a more pronounced advantage [6][20][24] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall market risk appetite has increased significantly this week, leading to a decline in trading sentiment for bank stocks, although the core investment logic remains intact [2][6] - Individual stocks such as Minsheng Bank H and Xiamen Bank have led gains due to improved governance expectations, while Nanjing Bank has seen an increase following the successful delisting of its convertible bonds [6][7] Loan and Deposit Trends - In the first half of the year, the total RMB credit has decreased year-on-year by 350 billion, with weak demand for household credit. The core drag has been short-term and medium-to-long-term operating loans, which have decreased by 705 billion [8][39] - Large banks have increased their new credit year-on-year, capturing 64% of the market share, while smaller banks continue to see a decline in credit demand [8][43][47] Convertible Bonds and Valuation Opportunities - Nanjing Bank's convertible bonds have been successfully delisted, eliminating conversion pressure and suggesting potential for valuation recovery. Other banks like Qilu Bank are also expected to see similar opportunities [7][26] Trading Activity - The turnover rate for joint-stock banks and city commercial banks has increased compared to last week, while the turnover rate for state-owned banks remained stable. The core investment logic for bank stocks remains robust, with low valuation recovery and significant risk bottom lines established [30][35]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of household deposits becoming more time-bound is strengthening, with a significant increase in the proportion of time deposits and a decrease in demand deposits [1][5][4]. Deposit Structure Analysis - As of the end of May, the total household deposit scale reached 160.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.39 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, with time deposits hitting a new high while demand deposits continued to decline [2][3]. - Time deposits (including other deposits) reached 119.34 trillion yuan, growing by 8.9 trillion yuan since the start of the year, while demand deposits decreased by approximately 513.7 billion yuan due to near-zero interest rates [3][7]. - By the end of May, the proportion of time deposits reached 74.29%, marking a historical high, indicating a deepening trend of deposit time-bounding [4][5]. Monthly Trends - The balance of time deposits has shown a month-on-month increase throughout the first five months of the year, with specific figures of 113.9 trillion, 116.42 trillion, 118.45 trillion, 118.78 trillion, and 119.34 trillion yuan [6]. - The proportion of time deposits has also increased month-on-month, except for a slight decrease in March, reaching 74.29% by the end of May [6]. - However, the growth rate of time deposits is slowing, with a net increase of only 325.8 billion yuan in April and 559.5 billion yuan in May, indicating a significant decline compared to earlier months [6]. Demand Deposit Trends - Demand deposits have shown negative growth in February, April, and May, with reductions of approximately 1.89 trillion yuan, 1.69 trillion yuan, and 922 billion yuan respectively, totaling 41.3 trillion yuan by the end of May, a decrease of 513.7 billion yuan since the end of last year [7]. Long-term Trends - Analyzing over a four-year period from the end of 2020 to the end of 2024, the growth rates of household deposits, time deposits, and demand deposits have shown a "high peak and then a decline" trend, with a significant turning point occurring at the end of 2022 [8]. - In 2022, the net increase in household deposits reached 17.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.33%, marking a recent high [9]. Banking Sector Implications - The narrowing of net interest margins for commercial banks has become evident, with the net interest margin dropping to 1.43% by the end of the first quarter, indicating pressure on banks to optimize their deposit structures [10][12]. - The increase in the proportion of time deposits is expected to exert continuous pressure on banks' deposit costs, interest margins, and revenues [11]. - To alleviate net interest margin pressure, banks are focusing on optimizing their deposit structures and managing high-cost deposits effectively [12][14].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the banking industry in China, particularly the trends in deposit rates and the behavior of depositors in response to macroeconomic conditions [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Activity and Deposit Behavior** - The decline in economic activity has led to reduced consumer spending and corporate investment willingness. Despite falling deposit rates, the macroeconomic situation has not significantly improved, resulting in a low-risk appetite among residents who prefer fixed-term deposits [1][2]. 2. **Impact of Deposit Rates on Fixed-Term Deposits** - Current fixed-term deposit rates in China are around 1%. Historical data from Japan indicates that fixed-term deposits only significantly decline when rates fall below 0.5%. Therefore, the trend towards fixed-term deposits is expected to continue despite lower rates [1][3]. 3. **Future Trends in Fixed-Term Deposits** - A large volume of three-year fixed-term deposits is set to mature in 2025, with an estimated total of 89 trillion yuan. It is anticipated that most of these funds will be reinvested into new fixed-term products due to limited improvement in fundamentals and the attractiveness of other investment channels [5][12]. 4. **Factors Influencing Deposit Base Growth** - The growth of the deposit base is influenced by several factors: the effectiveness of monetary easing, declining risk appetite among residents, poor performance of other asset classes, and profits remitted by the central bank to enterprises and residents [7][8]. 5. **Long-Term Deposit Preferences** - Residents, particularly those with lower risk tolerance, such as older individuals, are more inclined to choose longer-term fixed deposits. This preference is reflected in the current inversion of interest rates between three to five-year terms and one-year terms [5][6]. 6. **Asymmetric Rate Adjustments** - There is an asymmetric adjustment in interest rates across different terms, with larger adjustments seen in three and five-year terms. This is a response to the current market environment and changing risk preferences [6]. 7. **Historical Context of Deposit Trends** - The increase in fixed-term deposit ratios since 2018 is attributed to declining economic activity, with both residents and enterprises opting for fixed deposits as a safer investment. This trend has persisted despite fluctuations in the broader economic environment [9][10]. 8. **Lessons from Japan's Low-Rate Environment** - Japan's experience shows that even in a prolonged low-rate environment, the overall savings scale does not significantly decrease. This suggests that in a weak economy with limited investment options, individuals will continue to save rather than invest elsewhere [11]. 9. **Banking Sector Implications** - The maturity of fixed-term deposits will have some impact on banks' asset allocation strategies, but the overall effect is expected to be limited. A portion of maturing deposits may be converted to demand deposits, but this does not necessarily translate into a shift towards other business areas [12]. Other Important Insights - The records highlight the importance of understanding depositor behavior in the context of macroeconomic conditions and interest rate trends. The insights drawn from Japan's experience may provide valuable guidance for navigating similar challenges in the Chinese market [11].

Summary of China Merchants Bank Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Merchants Bank (招商银行) - **Date**: May 22, 2025 Key Points Financial Performance - **Net Interest Income**: Increased by nearly 2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, attributed to a narrowing of interest rate cuts, despite a decline in net interest margin by 11 basis points year-on-year [2][7][8] - **Loan Pricing**: Overall slight decrease in loan pricing; corporate loans saw a significant decline while retail loans remained stable or slightly decreased due to regulatory guidance [2][3][6] - **Deposit Growth**: Weak loan demand has led to sluggish deposit growth, with M1 and M2 widening [2][10] - **Wealth Management Fees**: Grew by 10.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, marking the first significant positive growth since 2022, driven by nearly 30% growth in fund sales, wealth management, and trust services [2][13] - **Card Fees**: Card transaction fees and settlement fees declined by 7-8% year-on-year due to weak consumption [2][14] Loan Demand and Credit Quality - **Credit Demand**: Remains weak in Q2 2025; retail loans showed marginal recovery in early May but overall demand is still not significantly improved [3][4] - **Asset Quality**: Retail loan non-performing loans (NPLs) are rising, but the bank maintains a solid provision coverage ratio [3][17][18] - **Corporate Loan Risks**: Concentrated in real estate and related sectors, with overall asset quality in other sectors remaining low [3][19][20] Market Conditions and Economic Outlook - **Trade War Impact**: Limited short-term impact from the US-China trade war observed; however, long-term effects depend on future tariff policies [4][5] - **Interest Rate Trends**: New loan pricing has slightly decreased; retail loan pricing remains stable or slightly down due to regulatory constraints [6][8] - **Deposit Rate Adjustments**: Recent adjustments in deposit rates have raised concerns about potential deposit outflows, but the bank views the changes as beneficial due to its high proportion of demand deposits [9][11] Future Strategies - **Loan Strategy**: The bank will not rigidly increase any specific type of loan but will adjust based on market demand [4][21] - **Wealth Management Focus**: Continued emphasis on wealth management services to enhance fee income, with expectations for further growth in Q2 2025 [13][14] - **Dividends**: Plans for mid-term dividends in 2025 have been announced, with distributions expected in early and mid-2026 [23] Risks and Challenges - **Economic Uncertainty**: The bank faces significant operational pressure due to geopolitical factors and weak loan demand, with Q1 2025 expected to be the most challenging period of the year [15][16][22] - **Retail Loan Quality**: While retail loan quality is under scrutiny, the bank has sufficient provisions to manage potential risks [18][22] Conclusion - China Merchants Bank is navigating a challenging economic landscape with a focus on maintaining asset quality, adjusting loan strategies based on market conditions, and enhancing wealth management services to drive fee income growth. The outlook remains cautious due to external economic pressures and internal loan demand weaknesses.

Core Viewpoint - The trend of deposit regularization continues among A-share listed banks, with 90% of banks reporting an increase in total deposits year-on-year, particularly in personal fixed deposits, while interest income is declining and liability costs are rising [1][2][11]. Deposit Trends - Among the 25 listed banks, total deposits reached 185.58 trillion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, with only Minsheng Bank and Everbright Bank showing a decline [2][3]. - Personal fixed deposits increased significantly, with Zhengzhou Bank reporting a nearly 40% year-on-year growth [4][5]. - The trend of deposit regularization is evident, with a notable increase in the proportion of fixed deposits compared to demand deposits [6][12]. Interest Expense and Rate Adjustments - Many banks are experiencing rising interest expenses on deposits, with notable increases reported by Changshu Bank and Ningbo Bank [7][8]. - In response to the pressure on liability management, several banks, especially small and medium-sized ones, have lowered deposit and large certificate of deposit rates, with some reductions reaching 40 basis points [9][10]. Net Interest Margin and Management Strategies - The net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased to 1.52%, with 16 out of 25 listed banks reporting a decline in interest income [11][12]. - Banks are focusing on controlling high-cost deposit scales and optimizing asset-liability structures to stabilize net interest margins [12].

昨晚招行公布了24年的年报， 今天，A股招行大跌近-5.4%，港股招行大跌近-5.5% ，由于招行在中证银行指数中占比达到16%，因此光招行一 家的下跌，就导致指数下跌-0.86%左右，而指数本身仅下跌-1.44%，也就是说，招行一己之力今天带动了银行股垫底的行情。 从交易量来看，银行股今天合计230亿多的交易量，招行一家占比30%左右，市场对招行年报的关注度，不可谓不高。 和去年一样，提前补充一下，招行作为全中国最好的商业银行之一，更多的还是以点带面，说说银行业的实际情况，以及春江水暖鸭先知，通过 银行业，了解下宏观和微观经济的实际情况。 去年此时，我们就招行23年的年报，写过《 招行年报里的十大真相 》，大家比较爱看，因为分析的角度还算全面，跳出银行看银行，讲了比较 多宏观的因素。 ...... 今天，我们继续。 从财报发布开始，市场里的解读已经不少了，赞歌不少，但干货不多。 不可忽视的是，从招行的年报中，我们可以看到， 银行业，正面临着近20年罕见的经营环境 ——2024年，招行的ROE（净资产收益率）下滑到 15%以下，是2004年以来首次。 我们知道，银行归根到底是经营杠杆的行业，1块钱的资本金，能 ...