Core Viewpoint - The bond market in China has entered a bull market in 2024, driven by weak economic conditions, moderate monetary policy easing, and reduced bank funding costs, leading to declining interest rates and narrowing credit spreads [1][2][8]. Bond Market Performance Interest Rate Bonds - Since the beginning of 2024, the bond market has shown a bull market trend, with the 1-year government bond yield dropping to a low of 0.9307% on December 23, 2024, the lowest since June 3, 2009 [2][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield reached a historical low of 1.5958% on February 7, 2025, indicating a low interest rate environment [2][4]. Credit Bonds - The scale of credit bond defaults has continued to decline in 2024, with a notable decrease in the proportion of defaults from real estate companies and AAA-rated bonds [5][6]. - The number of defaulting companies decreased from 37 in 2021 to 23 in 2024, and the default scale dropped from 1,076 billion to 241 billion [6]. Factors Driving Bond Yield Decline - Economic slowdown is evident, with the manufacturing PMI below 50 for nine months, indicating weak production [8][9]. - Monetary policy has become more accommodative, with two interest rate cuts totaling 30 basis points and two reserve requirement ratio cuts of 1 percentage point in 2024 [8][9]. - The cost of bank liabilities has decreased due to various policy measures, increasing demand for bond investments [8][9]. - Institutional demand for bonds has surged amid a weak stock market and ample liquidity, leading to significant bond purchases [9][10]. Outlook for the Bond Market Interest Rate Bonds - The bond market may experience increased volatility due to ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and potential government policies aimed at stabilizing growth [11][12]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds is expected to increase, with a total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new government debt planned for 2025 [11][12]. Credit Bonds - The default rate for credit bonds is expected to remain low, particularly in the real estate sector, due to improved sales and financing conditions [20][21]. - Credit spreads are likely to narrow, but the potential for further compression is limited due to already low levels [22]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors should closely monitor the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit rates as they significantly influence the 10-year government bond yields [24][25]. - A strategy to go long on short-term bonds is recommended, as the yield curve is expected to steepen [26]. - Identifying structural opportunities in credit spreads is crucial, focusing on liquidity risk management and sector rotation [27]. - Enhancing trading capabilities and utilizing derivatives for hedging, along with diversifying into fixed-income-like assets, can optimize portfolio performance [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond bull market is not over yet as the economic recovery pace is slowing down, inflation has limited upward elasticity, and the growth of social financing is weakening in the second half of 2025 [1][15]. - In the context of a long - term low - interest - rate environment and low credit spreads in China, the duration strategy becomes crucial in bond investment, and 10 - year treasury bonds are a relatively balanced choice [2]. - It is advisable to invest in long - duration treasury bond ETFs. Bond - type passive products are in the fast lane of development, and the 10 - year treasury bond ETF is a powerful tool for investors [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Observing the Situation: Economic Recovery Pace Slows Down, Bond Bull Market Continues - **2025 H1 Bond Market Performance**: The bond market first declined and then rose, with the turning point in March. From the beginning of the year to mid - March, it adjusted significantly due to exchange - rate stabilization and tight funds. In late March, it recovered due to tariff frictions. In April and May, it was affected by the central bank's double cuts and the Geneva talks, showing an overall oscillatory upward trend. In June, it oscillated downward and strengthened slightly with the central bank's signal of liquidity support [1][12][13]. - **2025 H2 Economic Outlook**: The economic recovery slope is likely to slow down, mainly because the "export rush" in H1 may lead to an overdraft effect on H2 exports, consumption may lose policy support, and the real - estate investment has not shown significant improvement. Prices are at the bottom with limited upward elasticity, and the social financing stock growth rate is likely to decline in Q3 and Q4 [15][21][22]. 2. Trend: Low - Interest - Rate Environment, Duration is King - **Long - Term Low - Interest - Rate Environment**: China's economic transformation and demographic changes are likely to lead to a long - term low - interest - rate environment. The decline in the traditional economic driving forces and the imbalance between capital supply and demand caused by population aging are the main reasons [28]. - **Importance of Duration Strategy**: In a low - interest - rate environment, adding long - duration bonds is the core to obtain term premiums. Compared with short - term and ultra - long - term treasury bonds, 10 - year treasury bonds have relatively balanced performance in terms of return and risk. Among different bond types, treasury bonds have advantages in terms of tax and liquidity [2][31][40]. 3. Seizing the Opportunity: Allocating Long - Duration Treasury Bond ETFs - **Development of Bond ETFs**: The performance gap between active and passive bond products is narrowing, and the bond - type passive products are in a golden development period. The scale of bond ETFs has reached new highs this year. Compared with overseas markets, domestic bond ETFs have broad development space [3][44][45]. - **Advantages of Bond ETFs**: Bond ETFs have lower fees, higher transparency, and more flexible trading mechanisms. They support T + 0 trading, can be leveraged through pledge, and have lower management and custody fees [3][50]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF**: It is the only 10 - year treasury bond ETF in the domestic market, providing a powerful tool for investors to invest in 10 - year treasury bonds. Managed by Wang Yu and Wang Zhenyang, it has excellent historical performance and good liquidity [3][57][60]. - **Cathay Fund**: As an ETF pioneer, Cathay Fund has a rich variety of ETF products, covering different asset classes. As of July 18, 2025, it has 69 ETFs with a total scale of 186.626 billion yuan, providing investors with a wide range of choices [66].

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced a significant adjustment since July, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.64% to over 1.7%, and the 30-year bond yield fluctuating above 1.9% [1] - Economic resilience in China is a key factor supporting the bond market adjustment, with indicators showing strong production, rising consumption, stable exports, and a gradual recovery in loans [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy expectations have also influenced the bond market, with rising prices in commodities like polysilicon and coking coal, driven by government initiatives to stabilize growth [2] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for the bond market is bearish, with expectations of continued pressure due to economic resilience and rising risk appetite [3][4] - Long-term support factors for the bond market include strong monetary policy support and the potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which may lead to a slight decrease in government bond yields [3][4] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address supply-demand imbalances, suggesting that monetary policy will remain accommodative to support economic adjustments, providing some support for the bond market [4]

今年以来，债券ETF成为资金青睐的重要方向之一，多只债券ETF规模创新高。 最新数据显示，截至6月20日，海富通中证短融ETF、富国政金债券ETF规模双双突破500亿元大关，这 是全市场首批达到500亿元规模的债券ETF。 业内人士表示，当前经济仍处于结构调整期，叠加内需结构转型，过去两年支撑债券牛市的基本面并未 变化，债券收益率向下趋势不变。 海富通基金认为，债券ETF规模的持续增长，或得益于市场需求等多重因素的共同推动。一方面，债券 ETF作为资产配置的重要工具之一，具备风险收益特征清晰、底层资产透明以及仓位稳定等突出优点， 能够满足各类型投资者的多样化配置需求。另一方面，债券ETF具备较高的灵活性和流动性，不仅投资 门槛较低，且操作十分便利，加之T+0的交易机制，为中低风险偏好的投资者提供了高效便捷的投资工 具。 机构持相对乐观看法 展望下半年的债券市场，海富通基金认为，过去两年支撑债券牛市的基本面并未发生变化。当前经济仍 然处于结构调整期，债券收益率向下趋势不变。 华宝基金固定收益部基金经理徐锬表示，2025年上半年，债市走势震荡。未来"债券牛市中继"的促发因 素包括：经济基本面短期仍维持韧性、二季度 ...

Group 1 - The bond ETF market in China has reached a milestone, with total assets surpassing 310 billion yuan, marking an increase of nearly 80% compared to the end of last year [1][3] - The growth in bond ETF size reflects investors' increasing preference for low-risk assets and indicates an optimization of the product structure in the domestic ETF market [1][3] - The rapid growth of bond ETFs is attributed to a combination of factors, including improved market liquidity, lower costs, enhanced regulatory frameworks, and a shift in investor risk preferences [7][8] Group 2 - New bond ETFs have emerged as a significant force in the market, with eight newly established funds raising a total of 21.71 billion yuan this year, and their total management scale reaching 76.83 billion yuan, more than doubling since their launch [4] - Existing bond ETFs have also seen substantial net inflows, with notable increases in the sizes of various ETFs, such as the short-term bond ETF, which grew by nearly 20 billion yuan in less than six months [4][6] - The bond ETF market is expected to continue expanding, driven by regulatory support, increased acceptance among investors, and ongoing product innovation [8]

Core Insights - Financial investment business is evolving from traditional tools to a new revenue engine for listed banks amid narrowing net interest margins and sluggish profit growth [2][3] - Bond investments are showing strong yield elasticity during the market interest rate decline in 2024, effectively cushioning the impact of declining net interest income on financial statements [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, 42 listed A-share banks reported a total net profit of 2.14 trillion yuan, averaging daily earnings of approximately 58.58 billion yuan [3] - The total financial investment amount reached 91.41 trillion yuan, generating 512.8 billion yuan in investment income, with over 90% of banks achieving year-on-year positive growth in investment income [3][4] - Among these banks, 37 reported positive growth in investment income, with five small and medium-sized banks achieving over 100% year-on-year growth [3][4] Group 2: Investment Trends - The average proportion of investment income to total revenue for the 42 listed banks increased to 15.61% in 2024, up from 12.33% in 2023 [4] - Nine banks had investment income accounting for over 20% of their revenue, all of which were small and medium-sized banks [4] - Jiangsu Bank, Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Beijing Bank reported investment income exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2024 [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The preference for bond investments among small and medium-sized banks is attributed to narrowing net interest margins and increased competition [6][7] - The bond market has become a significant source of income for banks, especially for rural commercial banks, which have become active participants in the bond market [6][7] - The overall bond yield trend in 2024 was downward, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing to 1.68% by December 31, creating favorable conditions for bond investment income growth [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Many banks maintain an optimistic outlook on bond investments for 2025, anticipating continued opportunities in the bond market due to expected fluctuations in bond rates [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Suzhou Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights steady growth in performance and continued excellent asset quality for Suzhou Bank [1] - The bank's total operating income for 2024 is projected to be 12.224 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.01% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to reach 5.068 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.16% [1] - The report anticipates a slight adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now projected at 5.444 billion yuan, 5.323 billion yuan, and 5.910 billion yuan respectively [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total operating income (in million yuan) for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is 11,866, 12,224, 12,987, 14,192, and 15,832 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.88%, 3.01%, 6.24%, 9.28%, and 11.56% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) for the same years is 4,600, 5,068, 5,444, 5,323, and 5,910, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.41%, 10.16%, 7.41%, -2.22%, and 11.02% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is 1.00, 1.08, 1.15, 1.12, and 1.25 respectively [1] - The P/B ratio for the current price and latest diluted EPS is 0.92, 0.83, 0.70, 0.66, and 0.62 for the respective years [1] Asset Quality and Income Sources - The report notes that the non-interest income for 2024 is expected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 27.6% [8] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.83% as of Q1 2025 [8] - The report indicates that the bank's loan growth rates for 2024 and Q1 2025 are 13.6% and 8.9% respectively, with a loan-to-total asset ratio of 49.9% [8]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 过去几年，人民币债券是一轮小牛市。 到了2024年，长期债券在上涨后，波动也逐渐变大。 很多朋友都会关心： 这里为大家准备了一门限时免费的课程，详细介绍了债券指数基金的相关问题。 长按识别下方二维码，添加@课程小助手，回复「 债券基金 」即可领取～ ◆◆◆ · 债券基金的收益和风险，有哪些特点？ · 为何普通投资者，更适合投资债券指数基金？ · 当前哪些债券指数基金，投资价值较高？ 这就是很典型的黑天鹅事件。 同样的，在2020年初，当时疫情刚开始， 原油价格出现暴跌。 发生了，破坏力又非常大的事件。 例如在1987年10月，美股遇到了大股灾。 当时美股道琼斯指数单日下跌超过20%。 原因是，当时计算机算法交易引入到投资 程序中。 当一部分股票下跌，计算机检测到之后， 会触发止损交易，卖出股票。 但是卖出导致股票进一步下跌，引发更多 的自动卖出交易，最终席卷整个市场。 这种程序交易在当时引入时间并不长，也 没有投资者能事先预料到，会那么短时间 出现如此巨大的跌幅。 原油期货价格也大幅下跌，甚至一度接近 到零。 有的投资者觉得,原油期货价格怎么都不 会低于0，就投入资金。 ...

昨晚招行公布了24年的年报， 今天，A股招行大跌近-5.4%，港股招行大跌近-5.5% ，由于招行在中证银行指数中占比达到16%，因此光招行一 家的下跌，就导致指数下跌-0.86%左右，而指数本身仅下跌-1.44%，也就是说，招行一己之力今天带动了银行股垫底的行情。 从交易量来看，银行股今天合计230亿多的交易量，招行一家占比30%左右，市场对招行年报的关注度，不可谓不高。 和去年一样，提前补充一下，招行作为全中国最好的商业银行之一，更多的还是以点带面，说说银行业的实际情况，以及春江水暖鸭先知，通过 银行业，了解下宏观和微观经济的实际情况。 去年此时，我们就招行23年的年报，写过《 招行年报里的十大真相 》，大家比较爱看，因为分析的角度还算全面，跳出银行看银行，讲了比较 多宏观的因素。 ...... 今天，我们继续。 从财报发布开始，市场里的解读已经不少了，赞歌不少，但干货不多。 不可忽视的是，从招行的年报中，我们可以看到， 银行业，正面临着近20年罕见的经营环境 ——2024年，招行的ROE（净资产收益率）下滑到 15%以下，是2004年以来首次。 我们知道，银行归根到底是经营杠杆的行业，1块钱的资本金，能 ...

长按识别下方二维码，添加@课程小助手，回复「 债券基金 」即可领取～ 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 过去几年，人民币债券是一轮小牛市。 到了2024年，长期债券在上涨后，波动也逐渐变大。 很多朋友都会关心： 这里为大家准备了一门限时免费的课程，详细介绍了债券指数基金的相关问题。 ◆◆◆ · 债券基金的收益和风险，有哪些特点？ · 为何普通投资者，更适合投资债券指数基金？ · 当前哪些债券指数基金，投资价值较高？ ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...