有色金属供需矛盾
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印尼矿难影响全球铜金属供给,有色ETF基金(159880)涨超2%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 01:58
Group 1 - Freeport announced force majeure due to an Indonesian mining accident, expecting a 4% year-on-year decline in copper sales for Q3 2025, with Q4 nearly stagnant. The global copper increment from the top 18 mines is projected to drop from 430,000 tons to 160,000 tons, exacerbating supply-demand conflicts and driving up copper-related stocks [1] - U.S. Antimony received a $245 million exclusive supply contract from the Pentagon, planning to increase production capacity from 2,000 tons to 6,000 tons, strengthening the supply-demand support logic for the antimony sector and boosting market sentiment [1] - Overproduction of coal in Shanxi and other regions may be restricted by the new Anti-Unfair Competition Law, with tight supply expectations pushing coking coal prices up to 1,700-1,800 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - As of September 25, the non-ferrous ETF fund (159880.SZ) rose by 2.22%, and its related index, the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Index (399395.SZ), increased by 2.07%. Among major constituent stocks, Northern Copper Industry rose by 10.01%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 9.67%, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals by 8.35% [1] - HuLong Securities noted that in the context of increased macro uncertainty, precious metals maintain a trend of rising volume and price. Their non-ferrous metal industry report indicates that Zijin Mining (601899.SH) received an "overweight" rating, with a projected PE of 15 times for 2025 [1] - According to Everbright Securities' weekly report, cobalt prices have risen across the board, with a week-on-week increase of 1.13% for cobalt sulfate. Additionally, polysilicon prices have risen for two consecutive months, with a week-on-week increase of 4.0% for photovoltaic-grade polysilicon, reflecting changes in the supply-demand structure in certain non-ferrous metal segments [1]