在全球资源博弈日益复杂的今天，一些国家开始通过不正当手段打破原有的贸易规则，寻找绕过中国出 口管制的途径。墨西哥的自贸区和泰国的经济走廊，成为了某些国家和企业的"资源中转站"。这种通过 第三方国家进行资源转运的做法，表面上符合国际贸易的自由化趋势，实则在破坏全球贸易规则的同 时，也加剧了资源争夺的暗流涌动。其背后不仅是资源富国与资源贫国之间的博弈，更是大国在全球经 济秩序中的深刻较量。 中国在近年对镓、锗、锑等关键矿产实施的出口管制，成为全球供应链中的一颗重磅炸弹。随着全球对 稀缺资源的需求激增，尤其是在高科技与军事领域，镓、锗、锑等矿产的战略地位日益凸显。中国作为 这些资源的最大生产国，其出口管制不仅让国际市场遭遇异常波动，还揭示了全球资源争夺背后的复杂 博弈和潜在的走私网络。美国在这一变动中的表现尤其引人注目，供应链的突变和跨国走私的愈演愈 烈，正是国际资源博弈加剧的一个缩影。 自2024年初，中国对镓、锗、锑等关键矿产的出口实施管制后，全球供应链立刻出现剧烈波动。根据最 新数据显示，2024年前四个月，泰国和墨西哥向美国的氧化锑出口量激增至3834吨，远超历史水平。这 两个几乎不产锑的国家，突然成为了美 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly focusing on iron ore, copper, cobalt, tin, and antimony markets, as well as the implications of geopolitical factors on these sectors [1][2][3][4][5][6][19][21]. Core Insights and Arguments Guinea Simandou Iron Ore Project - The Guinea Simandou iron ore project is expected to export without the need for a supporting smelting plant due to inadequate local power infrastructure [1][4]. - The project is projected to start logistics in 2025, with potential exports reaching 30 million to 60 million tons in 2026, and possibly 120 million tons in the next 2-3 years, significantly impacting global shipping trade [3]. Iron Ore Trade and Market Reactions - A potential pause in cooperation between China and BHP over settlement currency issues could significantly affect iron ore trade, although current overseas market reactions are muted [1][5]. - Domestic investors are more sensitive to these developments, as evidenced by stock movements in related companies [5]. Steel Industry Dynamics - Short-term control of iron ore imports to manage steel production is unlikely, with supply-side reforms being crucial for long-term industry health [1][6]. - High-quality companies like Baosteel and Hualing Steel are identified as having medium to long-term investment value due to low valuations and high dividend yields [6]. Copper Market Supply and Demand - The copper market is expected to face significant supply disruptions, with major producers like Teck Resources and Efenhau Mine lowering production forecasts [1][8]. - Global copper supply is projected to be tight in the first half of 2026, with prices potentially reaching historical highs of $12,000 to $14,000 per ton [1][12]. AI and Data Center Demand for Copper - The demand for copper is significantly driven by AI and data centers, with each cabinet now using approximately 300 kg of copper, leading to an annual increase in demand of about 100,000 tons from AI-related equipment alone [9][12]. Cobalt Market Trends - Cobalt prices have risen to around 350,000 RMB per ton, with expectations to reach 400,000 to 450,000 RMB in Q4 2025 [1][16]. - Companies like Huayou Cobalt are expected to see profit increases due to rising cobalt prices [1][16]. Tin and Antimony Market Outlook - China's antimony exports have shown a significant increase since August 2025, highlighting its strategic value amid U.S. supply chain concerns [2][19]. - Huaxi Nonferrous is projected to increase tin production by 66%, with profits potentially reaching 1.6 billion RMB [2][19]. Strategic Metal Valuation - The valuation of strategic metals like copper and silver is expected to rise due to increased global focus on these resources [13]. - Companies like Zijin Mining are projected to have significant profit potential based on current market conditions [13]. Other Important Insights - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals market has been strong, with steel markets also showing positive trends influenced by the Guinea Simandou project [3]. - The importance of supply chain security and strategic resource management is emphasized, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions [21][25]. - The recovery of tin and antimony supply chains is critical, with disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar affecting global supply [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into market dynamics, company performance, and future trends in the non-ferrous metals industry.

巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹和陆军参谋长穆尼尔罕见地一同出现在美国，与美国战略金属公司签下了一份价值5亿美元的矿产合作备忘录。 仪式上，巴方交付了首 批稀土、锑和铜精矿，而美方则承诺后续将帮助巴基斯坦建设精炼厂和物流体系。 巴基斯坦此刻正深陷经济危机。 它的外债规模已达1300亿美元，外汇储备却多次跌破90亿美元的危险线，连维持基本进口都捉襟见肘。 美国递来的5亿美元 初始投资，对伊斯兰堡而言是一笔能解燃眉之急的"救命钱"。 除了资金，美国还承诺协助巴基斯坦构建从开采到加工的矿产产业链，这对渴望将地下约6万 亿美元矿物储量转化为经济动能的巴方极具吸引力。 美国如此急切地推动与巴基斯坦的稀土合作，根源在于其深刻的"稀土焦虑"。 稀土被称为"工业维生素"，从智能手机、新能源汽车到F-35战机（单机需420 公斤稀土）和弗吉尼亚级核潜艇（单艘需4吨稀土），都离不开它。 当前，中国掌控着全球高达91%的稀土精加工产能，美国国防工业的稀土需求严重依赖 中国供应。 美国本土并非没有稀土资源，但其稀土多为伴生矿，提炼成本高、环境污染大，且面临严格的环保审批限制。 更关键的是，美国缺乏成熟的精加工能力。 其国内唯一的稀土矿MP Mat ...

不可否认，从战略上看，特朗普这一手牌很有针对性，也抓住了美国的几个痛点，难以被简单驳斥。但美国重返南亚并非易事，现实里有不少麻烦要处 理。首先，巴国内恐怖主义问题长期存在，美资在当地曾遭受损失；即使美国把某些武装列为恐怖组织，巴基斯坦政府也并未彻底根除这些势力——这给 美方投资与安全带来不确定性。其次，中巴之间已有的战略关系和大框架并非轻易改变；同时美印关系、地区力量平衡错综复杂，一旦实际操作，牵一发 而动全身。 在中美较量的背景下，中国把"稀土"当成了一张重要牌，确实让美国感到为难。中国之所以愿意坐到谈判桌前，很大程度上是因为国内稀土储量逼近临 界，需要通过谈判寻求缓和与时间，以免被动局面继续恶化。 但特朗普并不是容易放手的人。他的团队找到了一个意想不到的办法——把目光投向巴基斯坦。眼下中美领导人很快要在韩国举行首轮会晤，这是否意味 着特朗普因此更有底气回到谈判桌上，值得关注。 据观察者网引述《金融时报》的报道，有巴方消息称，美巴正考虑在帕斯尼合建一个港口，并以此为节点把交通与基础设施向巴基斯坦中西部延伸，方便 把当地重要矿产运往美国。到目前为止，美巴官方尚未对外确认这一计划，但《金融时报》获得消息本身就像 ...

近期，一则关于巴基斯坦向美国抛出橄榄枝的消息引发广泛讨论，不仅建议美国投资建造港口，甚至传出要出售关键矿产资源给美国的风声。这一举措不禁 让人疑惑，向来被亲切称为"巴铁"的巴基斯坦，此番如此"灵活"的外交战略，莫非是准备同时讨好中美两大国际舞台上的重要角色？ 今年5月印巴冲突过后，美国与巴基斯坦之间的互动显著增加。据《观察者网》援引《金融时报》报道，巴基斯坦军方顾问团队向美方提出了一个提议，在 阿拉伯海的战略要地帕斯尼修建一座初步预算为12亿美元的港口。该港口计划并非孤立存在，配套规划了新建铁路，目的在于将内陆的铜、锑等关键矿产资 源便捷运输出来，其中不少属于美国紧缺的稀土资源。 由于此前中国对美国实施稀土出口限制，美国迫切需要获取其他来源的稀土资源，巴基斯坦的稀土自然受到美方强烈关注。帕斯尼港地理位置敏感，距离中 国参与投资的瓜达尔港也仅112公里。 从地缘政治角度看，该港口建设不仅是经济项目，更可能对地区格局产生深远影响。 支持者认为，此举具有多方面战略意义：一方面有助于巴基斯坦在中、美、伊朗、沙特等复杂国际关系中进行对冲，通过引入美国投资和影响力平衡瓜达尔 港的影响；另一方面可扩大美国在阿拉伯海及中亚地 ...

话说回来，中国在2023年7月搞出镓和锗出口管制这事儿，一下子就把美国的供应链搅得鸡飞狗跳。镓这玩意儿主要用在半导体和太阳能板上，全球产量中 国占了94%，锗也差不多，占83%。 美国那边一下子就慌了，因为这些材料直接关系到高科技产业和军用设备。结果呢，出口量直线下降，价格蹭蹭上涨，美国的芯片厂和军工厂开始头疼怎么 找替代货源。 想想看，本来依赖进口的，现在突然卡脖子，生产成本翻倍不说，还得担心库存不够用。这不，管制刚实施几个月，镓出口就几乎停滞，后来慢慢恢复点， 但整体供应还是紧巴巴的。 美国地质调查局后来算了笔账，说如果中国完全禁掉镓和锗，美国国内生产总值可能少34亿美元。这数字听着就够吓人的，实际影响肯定不止这些，因为产 业链一环扣一环，耽误了上游，下游全乱套。 结果呢，2024年8月，中国商务部宣布从9月15日起，对锑矿、锑金属等六种产品管制出口。紧接着，12月3日，直接禁掉向美国出口镓、锗和锑，理由是回 应美国的技术限制。 这下子，锑出口量掉97%，价格从年初1万美元一吨，飙到年底3万美元以上，到2025年上半年，甚至摸到5万美元一吨。有些市场传闻说可能冲到10万美 元，供不应求闹得慌。 美国国防部 ...

（一）应对新一轮中美贸易战，出口管制保护产业链安全 近年，随着新一轮中美贸易战的升级，美国对华出口管制措施不断加码，从传统制造业到高科技领域，从实体清单到长臂管辖，手段逐渐激烈。从2024年9 月美国对中国关键矿产加征25%关税，2024年将136家中国半导体企业纳入出口管制清单，到2025年4月将对华关税提升至125%，部分商品综合税率达 145%。 美国试图通过出口管制削弱中国企业在全球供应链中的竞争力，构建技术封锁体系，试图切断我国高端制造的材料与设备供给，严重威胁中国产业链安全， 更造成全球产业链的紊乱。迫使我国将资源优势转化为战略防御能力，通过出口管制筑牢产业安全底线。 （二）新形势下各国加强对关键矿产的开发和保护 全球地缘政治格局深刻调整下，各国加强对关键矿产的开发和保护。2022年美国颁布史上最重大的气候相关法案《通胀削减法案》，动用约3,700亿美元为 新能源行业和供应链提供资金和税收抵免，显著提升了投向关键矿产的公共资金；2023年3月欧盟发布《关键原材料法案》提出建立关键矿产集中采购组 织，初步提出针对关键矿产在欧盟集团内部'汇总需求'并建立采购体系；此外，加拿大和英国也修订了《关键矿产战 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments have issued a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in value-added and approximately 1.5% in the production of ten non-ferrous metals from 2025 to 2026, with a significant focus on domestic resource development and recycling [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Policy Impact - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see a positive impact from the deep implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, which is changing the supply-demand dynamics in the sector [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is not just a supply-side measure but also a strong demand-side policy, which is anticipated to enhance domestic production factor prices and retain more surplus value within the country [1] - The current timing is favorable for implementing "anti-involution" measures, as excess capacity and price declines are nearing an end [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The focus on copper and aluminum is highlighted, with expectations of steady demand growth for these industrial metals, particularly as the market transitions from supply constraints to demand recovery [2] - Precious metals like gold are expected to benefit from anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, which will likely drive up gold prices due to their relationship with real interest rates [2] - Small metals such as tungsten, rare earths, and tin are also seen as promising, driven by geopolitical factors, industry consolidation, and the rise of AI and electronic devices [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and ETF Insights - Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying degrees of market conditions and drivers, suggesting a diversified investment approach could be beneficial [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector's leading ETF, which tracks the China Nonferrous Metals Index, includes significant weights in copper (25.3%), aluminum (14.2%), rare earths (13.8%), gold (13.6%), and lithium (7.6%), providing a risk-diversified investment option [3]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 9 月 27 日 降息周期开启，推荐关注稀土磁材、钨、钴等 关键金属 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业评级：推荐 [Table_Pic] 行业走势图 -20% -12% -5% 2% 9% 16% 2023/09 2023/12 2024/03 2024/06 2024/09 有色金属 沪深300 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼政府暂停 39 家镍矿企业，或提升市场镍供应偏 紧预期 截止到 9 月 26 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15,035 美元/ 吨，较 9 月 19 日下跌 0.66%，LME 镍总库存为 230,124 吨， 较 9 月 19 日增加 0.74%；沪镍报收 12.15 万元/吨，较 9 月 19 日下跌 0.16%，沪镍库存为 29,008 吨，较 9 月 19 日减少 2.77%；截止到 9 月 26 日，硫酸镍报收 28,600 元/吨，较 9 月 19 日价格上涨 1.60%。根据 SMM，本周，当前有一 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strategic importance of antimony, a rare metal used in various industries, particularly in high-performance weapon manufacturing, and its classification as a critical mineral by multiple countries [1][3] - In response to the increasing demand and tightening supply of antimony, the Chinese government has implemented export controls to safeguard its strategic reserves, leading to illegal smuggling attempts by criminal groups [2][3] Group 1: Antimony's Strategic Importance - Antimony is recognized as a strategic resource essential for national defense, technological advancement, and industrial upgrading, making it a key material for China's development [3] - The international market for antimony is experiencing supply constraints, resulting in rising prices and widening price differentials between domestic and international markets [2] Group 2: Illegal Smuggling Activities - Criminal groups are attempting to smuggle antimony out of China due to high profit margins, with recent operations leading to the arrest of multiple suspects and the seizure of significant quantities of antimony [2] - One particular smuggling operation involved a family-based criminal group coordinating with an overseas financier to illegally export high-purity antimony ingots [2] Group 3: Government Response and Public Involvement - The Chinese government, through national security agencies, is actively combating illegal smuggling of antimony and has encouraged public reporting of suspicious activities to enhance resource security [3]