Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities suggests a strategic and tactical bullish outlook on A-share assets, driven by the anticipated rise of new economic drivers and forces in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly in advanced manufacturing and technology [2][3] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in China, highlighting that each era has its core assets that reflect the macroeconomic environment, with the upcoming period expected to attract global resources and create a bull market in equities [2] - The focus is on four main investment themes: "All in AI, new productive forces, self-control, and going global" [1][2] Group 2: Asset Allocation - A-shares are viewed positively, with a focus on a "dumbbell strategy" where investments are concentrated at both ends: technology growth and dividend stocks, while rotating through mid-range assets [3] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including technology related to self-control and domestic substitution, as well as long-duration low-yield assets like dividend stocks [3] Group 3: Market Conditions - The domestic bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to range between 1.5% and 1.9% due to various economic factors [4] - In the U.S. market, the report anticipates volatility in U.S. stocks, with a downward trend in U.S. Treasury yields and a weakening dollar, influenced by AI narratives and fiscal policies [5][6] Group 4: Commodity Outlook - The report notes a broad presence of bullish options in commodities, with precious metals like gold and silver benefiting from trends such as "de-dollarization" and "debt monetization" [6] - Specific commodities such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths are expected to gain from energy transition and technological advancements, as well as geopolitical tensions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December shows significant divergence, while precious metal prices remain supported, indicating that gold is likely to maintain an upward trend [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - The price of antimony has rebounded after a six-month decline, supported by low inventory levels among traders and a limited sales model from smelters, which bolsters price increase expectations [1] Group 2: Mining ETFs - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the extraction and processing of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of related securities [1] - This index exhibits strong cyclical characteristics and is closely related to changes in the global economic environment [1]

Core Conclusions - The non-farm employment in the U.S. unexpectedly increased by 119,000 in September, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021 [5][6] - The price of antimony has rebounded significantly, presenting potential investment opportunities in antimony-related sectors [2][4] Domestic Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,836.77, with a slight increase of 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% to 12,585.08 [3] - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.12% to 4,448.05, indicating a mixed performance across major indices [3] International Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,448.27, up by 0.44%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw increases of 1.55% and 2.69%, closing at 6,705.12 and 22,872.01 respectively [3] Industry Insights - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant disagreement among policymakers regarding the potential for a rate cut in December, with a 10 to 2 vote to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points [4] - The Congo has extended the ban on artisanal mining trade in conflict-affected provinces, impacting global supply chains for tin, tantalum, and tungsten, which are critical for electronics and aerospace industries [7] Market Trends - The North Exchange saw an average daily trading volume of 17.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.2% week-on-week, with the North Exchange 50 index dropping by 9.04% [8] - The top five gainers included Dapeng Industrial (up 1211.1%) and Beikang Testing (up 289.6%), while the largest losers were Luqiao Information (down 23.2%) and Taipeng Intelligent (down 19.8%) [8] Investment Recommendations - The North Exchange's policy support is expected to benefit specialized and innovative enterprises, with a focus on the net subscription status of thematic funds and the liquidity recovery opportunities from the launch of the "specialized and innovative" index funds [10] - The current market adjustment may provide a window for medium to long-term investment opportunities, particularly in high-growth sectors that have been undervalued [10]

华鑫证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4072.85美元/盎司，环比11月14 日+1.75美元/盎司，涨幅为0.04%。周内伦敦白银价格为48.91美元/盎司，环比11月14日-3.11美元/盎司， 跌幅为-5.97%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 贵金属：12月美联储进一步降息分歧大，贵金属价格支撑仍在 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4072.85美元/盎司，环比11月14日+1.75美元/盎司，涨幅为0.04%。周内 伦敦白银价格为48.91美元/盎司，环比11月14日-3.11美元/盎司，跌幅为-5.97%。 数据方面，美国11月纽约联储制造业指数18.7，前值10.7，预期5.8。美国9月失业率4.4%，前值4.3%， 预期4.3%。美国9月非农就业人口变动11.9万人，前值-0.4万人，预期5.1万人。美国11月标普全球综合 PMI初值54.8，前值54.6，预期54.6。美国11月标普全球制造业PMI初值51.9，前值52.5，预期52。 数据方面，前期由于美国政府停摆，9月就业数据本周才发布，虽然9月新增非农就业人数超过预期，但 是9月失业率反弹，导致市场判断12月美 ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 锑价下跌半年后反弹，看好锑板块 推荐(维持) 投资要点 1、《有色金属行业周报：铝价逐步 走强，看好铝企估值修复》2025- 11-10 2、《有色金属行业周报：美联储如 期降息叠加结束缩表，贵金属支撑 变强》2025-11-03 3、《有色金属行业周报：中美经贸 谈判达成初步共识，宏观利好支撑 铜铝涨价》2025-10-27 ▌贵金属：12 月美联储进一步降息分歧大，贵金属价 格支撑仍在 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为 4072.85 美元/盎司，环比 11 月 14 日+1.75 美元/盎司，涨幅为 0.04%。周内伦敦白银价格为 48.91 美元/盎司，环比 11 月 14 日-3.11 美元/盎司，跌幅为- 5.97%。 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：杜飞 | S1050523070001 | | dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属(申万) -3.4 19.6 55.5 沪深 300 -4.4 1. ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：矿业俱乐部） 镉0#28600-29600元/吨0铬99A81100-84600元/吨0碲741-751元/千克 0 铼28100-32600 元/千克0 锑0#锑锭171100-174100元/吨100002#高铋163100-166100元/吨10000镁99.9%上 海17005-17105元/吨 0 铌≥99.9%665-675元/千克0钒≥99.5%1461-1561元/千克0电解锰广西 13400-13600元/吨 0金属锂≥99%575100-610100元/吨0金属砷6705-7205 元/吨0海绵钛≥97-98%45-46元/千克0海绵锆≥99% 166-171元/千克0 1631-1681元/吨碳酸稀土44305-44705元/吨红土镍矿 1.8%（FOB） 72-75美元/湿吨 非金属报价 产品名称 矿产品报价品名规格产地涨跌铜精矿18-20%74012-77769元/金属吨铅精矿50%河南16650-16800元/金属 吨云南16750-16900元/金属吨锌精矿50%云南 18604-18704元/金属吨 湖南18554-18654元/金属吨钼精矿45%367 ...

行业周报 | 有色金属 锑价触底回升且明显反弹，关注锑相关投资机会 有色金属行业周报（2025.11.17 -2025.11.23） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：美联储 10 月会议纪要显示，决策者对 12 月是否降息存在 较大分歧 美东时间周三（11 月 19 日），美联储公布了 10 月 28 日至 29 日的联邦公 开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要显示，决策者对 12 月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。FOMC 在 10 月会议上以 10 比 2 的投票结 果通过了降息 25 个基点的决定，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.75%-4.00%。 本周核心关注二：美国 9 月非农超预期，失业率升至 4.4%，降息预期降温 本周，美东时间周四，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国 9 月非农就业 意外大增 11.9 万人，显著高于市场预期的 5 万人，失业率从 8 月的 4.3%升 至 4.4%，创 2021 年以来新高。此外，7 月份非农新增就业人数从 7.9 万人 下修 7000 人至 7.2 万人；8 月份非农新增就业人数从 2.2 万人下修 2.6 万至 -0.4 万人。修正后，7 月和 8 ...

Core Insights - The urgency of the U.S. regarding rare earth exports from China has increased, with Treasury Secretary expressing hope for a supply agreement before Thanksgiving [1][3] - The U.S. believes that China should restore rare earth supply to the free flow status prior to April 4, but this may not be realistic without a comprehensive trade agreement [5][9] Group 1: U.S. Position and Actions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra stated the desire to secure a rare earth supply agreement with China by the end of November [3] - Becerra warned of various retaliatory measures if China reneges on any agreement [3] - The U.S. has taken significant steps towards self-sufficiency in rare earths, but challenges remain in mining and refining capabilities [9] Group 2: China's Response and Market Dynamics - China is considering reopening rare earth exports under certain conditions, potentially limiting access to companies linked to the U.S. military [5] - China has recently resumed normal flow of rare earths by suspending export controls on key minerals [9] - Despite verbal concessions regarding U.S. soybean purchases, actual actions show ongoing discrepancies between the two nations [9] Group 3: Market Control and Dependency - China controls approximately 70% of global rare earth extraction and over 90% of processing capabilities, making it difficult for the U.S. to change this dependency in the short term [10] - The U.S. relied on imports for about 80% of its rare earth needs last year, with critical minerals like dysprosium and terbium almost entirely refined by China [10]

全球锑矿供给未来几年将呈现下降趋势，国内龙头企业产量难以大幅提 升，海外矿石供应紧张，主要矿山复产遥遥无期。即使光伏需求走弱， 全球锑需求仍预计每年增长 2-3%，供需缺口持续扩大。 预计 2026 年铁矿石市场将继续保持高位，均价在 20 万至 25 万元之间， 峰值可能达到 25 万至 30 万元。2027 年和 2028 年的市场缺口预计仍 将维持在 20%以上。 推荐关注华锡有色，其业绩中 40%来自锡，40%来自锑，未来五年内 铁矿和锌产量权益量将增加。在锡价 30 万元/吨和锑价 20 万元/吨的假 设下，2026 年公司合理利润接近 15 亿元，估值可达 300 亿元。 再再再 call【锑】：预期转向现实，主升浪或临近 20251123 摘要 T 板块价格受政策利好和电子盘交易活跃度增加影响，从 11 月初的 14.5 万元快速上涨至现货市场成交价 18.5 万至 19 万元之间。出口禁 令取消提振市场信心，电子盘 T7 品种上线后价格迅速上涨并稳定在 18 万元以上。 出口恢复对 T 板块需求结构产生显著影响，历史上出口量占总产量约 40%，主要用于阻燃剂生产。出口恢复将大幅提升整体需求，推 ...

今年以来，广西通过实施矿业权整合和"小散乱"企业综合治理专项行动、引进优质企业和项目等组合 拳，推动关键金属产业高质量发展。 广西锡、锑、铟、锗等关键金属资源储量丰富，但一度存在粗放式开采、低水平利用问题，不仅破坏生 态环境，还导致优质资源被低效消耗，削弱产业整体竞争力。 推进矿业权整合和"小散乱"企业综合治理，是推动产业转型升级的重要一步。广西计划用两年时间开展 治理专项行动，力争到2027年底，全区采矿权数量由现在的2612个减少至1800个以内，大中型企业的比 例由现在的43%提升至60%以上。 关键金属产业高质量发展离不开科学的规划布局。广西近日发布《广西关键金属产业创新发展"十五 五"规划》和配套产业措施，提出打造"九链三集群"关键金属产业体系，构建"一区两带多组团"产业空 间布局，建成国家关键金属产业集聚区。目前，广西正加快建设南丹关键金属高质量发展综合试验区， 推进有色金属、关键金属产业高端化、智能化、绿色化、规模化、园区化发展。35个有色金属、关键金 属重点项目于近日签约。 广西壮族自治区党委书记、自治区人大常委会主任陈刚表示，期盼与有关各方协同推进产业合作，重点 在有色金属深加工、新材料研发 ...