服务业有效供给

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热点思考 | 消费困局的“盲点”?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-05-21 14:04
Group 1 - The core issue of service consumption recovery is that it is slower compared to goods consumption, with a significant gap in service consumption tendency compared to historical trends, indicating that income may not be the primary constraint on service recovery [2][8][107] - In 2024, the gap in per capita service consumption compared to historical trends is 2,093 yuan (13.9%), while the gap for goods consumption is only 458 yuan (2.9%) [2][8][107] - The increase in working hours has led to a reduction in leisure time, with daily paid working hours increasing by 2 hours, which negatively impacts service consumption that relies heavily on leisure time [2][19][107] Group 2 - The increase in average weekly working hours for urban residents in 2023 is 48.7 hours, significantly higher than Japan (32.6 hours) and South Korea (36.6 hours), leading to more consumption concentrated during holidays [3][30][108] - The legal minimum number of vacation days in China is 18 days (by 2025), which is considerably lower than Japan (29 days) and South Korea (30 days) [3][30][108] Group 3 - Insufficient effective supply in the service sector is a short-term constraint on consumption recovery, particularly in the life service sector [4][49][109] - The employment share in the service sector has decreased by 3.8% compared to historical trends, indicating an excess supply gap [4][49][109] - The slow recovery in service supply is particularly evident in education, health, and cultural entertainment sectors, with employment shares declining significantly [4][60][109] Group 4 - The lack of entrepreneur confidence is a significant drag on service supply, with high industry costs and increased debt pressure contributing to this issue [6][110][101] - Investment in the life service sector has not kept pace with profit recovery, indicating a cautious investment behavior among entrepreneurs [6][90][110] - The average cash flow ratio for the cultural and entertainment sector is 19.8%, reflecting increased cash flow pressure and limiting supply expansion willingness [6][96][110]