南方财经记者郑玮、郑康喜 广州报道 最新数据显示，2025年上半年，广东全省规模以上服务业实现营业收入2.89万亿元，同比增长7.3%。同 一天，广东省加快推进现代化产业体系建设第四场专题会议（现代服务业专场）也在广州举行。 规上服务业的亮眼增速为会议主题设置作出了最直观解释：这是一个对广东经济增长贡献率达到47.9% 的支柱产业。2024年，广东全省服务业增加值达到8.14万亿元，占全国10.6%，连续40年位居全国第 一，占GDP比重达57.5%。 但在"高歌猛进"的营收增速背后，新的挑战接踵而至。核心技术服务、高端护理服务等高质量供给不 足，数字经济、高端医疗等领域开放程度相对滞后，金融、科技、跨境服务等专业人才缺口仍然较大。 跨过8万亿元增加值之后，广东服务业如何寻找发展新空间？这场专题会议将解题目光投向供给与开放 两大关键环节。 跨过8万亿之后 作为全国首个GDP突破13万亿元的省份，服务业在广东整体经济结构中扮演着什么角色？ 广东省人大环境资源委主任委员任小铁分享了一组数据：从规模上看，2024年广东省服务业增加值达 8.14万亿元，占GDP比重57.5%，对经济增长的贡献率达到47.9%。从结构 ...

河套深港科技创新合作区。新华社发 2024年广东服务业增加值达8.14万亿元，连续40年居全国第一，占GDP比重57.5%，撑起经济"半壁江 山"。然而，规模优势背后，结构性短板与转型阵痛同样凸显。在此背景下，广东现代服务业如何开 启"破茧"之旅？ 8月22日，广东省召开加快推进现代化产业体系建设第四场专题会议（现代服务业专场）。在这场围绕 现代服务业发展的深度探讨中，专家学者、企业代表、人大代表、研究机构与政府相关部门齐聚，叩问 广东如何以现代服务业为支点，撬动现代化产业体系的全新图景。 "两业融合" 短板隐忧 从"卡脖子"到"人才荒"的突围挑战 "高歌猛进"背后，深层次矛盾亦亟待破解。生产性服务业的供给能级首当其冲。省人大常委会的专题调 研报告中指出：广东的生产性服务业科技转化率低、基础软件等关键核心技术"卡脖子"、数字产业"硬 制造"强而"软服务"薄弱。 中山大学管理学院教授、博士生导师，中山大学中国第三产业研究中心主任李江帆指出，研发与关键技 术的供给不足，制约了广东生产服务业引领制造业迈向中高端。"粤港澳大湾区生产性服务业的成色， 关键是看广东作为制造强省和工业强省，能否培育出更高科技含量、更大消费 ...

Core Insights - Guangdong's service industry is projected to reach a value of 8.14 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 10.6% of the national total and contributing 47.9% to GDP, maintaining its position as the leading province in service industry development for 40 consecutive years [1] - The digital economy in Guangdong has reached 6.9 trillion yuan, also ranking first in the country for eight consecutive years [1] - Challenges identified include insufficient high-quality supply in modern service industries, a shortage of skilled talent, and limited depth and breadth of openness [1] Group 1: Current State of the Service Industry - The productive service sectors, including finance, information transmission, software, and technology services, dominate the landscape [1] - There are significant gaps in the quality and capability of productive service supply to manufacturing, with critical technologies like industrial software facing bottlenecks [1] - High-end lifestyle services, such as specialized elderly care and smart elderly services, are lacking in capacity and quality, with a notable shortage of caregivers [1] Group 2: Recommendations for Development - The Guangdong Provincial People's Congress suggests accelerating the domestic replacement of high-end software industries, including basic and industrial software, and promoting the development of technology, green, and digital finance [2] - Encouragement for large manufacturing enterprises to outsource non-core businesses or establish dedicated productive service companies is recommended to strengthen the market [2] - Support for the establishment of national-level high-quality silver economy industrial parks and the promotion of elderly-friendly renovations is advised, along with securing funding for infrastructure projects [2] Group 3: Innovation and Regulatory Environment - To foster innovation in the modern service industry, the Guangdong Provincial People's Congress recommends exploring "sandbox regulation" for new technologies and business models, and establishing a fault-tolerance mechanism to encourage a more open and innovative regulatory environment [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the service consumption sector in China, particularly in comparison to developed countries like the US, Japan, and South Korea. The current service consumption in China is relatively low, even when GDP per capita reaches approximately $13,000, indicating significant room for growth in service consumption [1][2][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Drivers of Service Consumption Growth**: - Three main drivers identified: urbanization, aging population, and increased government spending on social welfare as GDP per capita exceeds $10,000, known as the Wagner's Law effect [1][4][17]. - Urbanization leads to increased demand for urban public services and lifestyle services [4][12]. - The aging population significantly boosts demand for healthcare and elderly care services [14][17]. - Government investment in social welfare is expected to rise, enhancing consumer spending [15][17]. - **Technological Gaps**: - There exists a technological gap between China and the US in productive services, particularly in information technology and software transmission. China needs to enhance its capabilities in these areas to close the gap and improve productivity, which in turn can lead to wage growth and service sector development [5][19]. - **Employment and Quality of Jobs**: - The rapid urbanization has not been matched by a corresponding increase in high-quality jobs in the service sector, leading to a situation where many workers are forced into low-quality service jobs, exacerbating the issue of "involution" in the service industry [6][7][24]. - **Price Dynamics**: - Service price growth in China has been lower than that of goods, indicating a broader low-price issue that extends beyond manufacturing to the service sector. This necessitates a focus on improving the quality of service supply to stimulate consumer willingness to pay [3][8][9]. - **Comparison with the US**: - The US has seen a significant increase in service sector contribution to GDP, reaching 76% by 2009, while China remains at a lower stage of development. The US has a more integrated productive service sector that supports various industries, while China's service sector is still developing [16][22]. Additional Important Insights - **Future Focus Areas**: - Over the next five years, China is expected to prioritize the development of both productive and lifestyle services, with an emphasis on technological advancements and improved income distribution mechanisms to enhance wages in the service sector [24][25]. - **Potential Growth Areas**: - Specific sectors identified for future growth include information technology, scientific research, wholesale and retail, and health and social work, which show strong demand elasticity with rising income levels [25][26]. - **Challenges in Service Sector**: - The service sector faces challenges such as insufficient high-quality job creation and the need for better integration of productive services with manufacturing to enhance overall economic growth [6][27]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future potential of the service consumption sector in China, along with the challenges it faces in comparison to developed economies.

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" is the imbalance between manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels (+0.2 million), while service employment showed a shortfall of -0.4 million compared to potential levels, indicating a recovery lag in the service sector [2][9] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, reflecting an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is notably below demand, with a potential investment gap of approximately 1.5 trillion [2][18] Group 2 - Consumer demand shows a significant gap, with a shortfall of about 6.4 billion in goods consumption and nearly 30 billion in service consumption, indicating a stronger recovery need in the service sector [3][27] - The average gap in per capita service consumption is 2,093 yuan, while the total potential gap in national service consumption is close to 30 billion [3][27] Group 3 - Long-term solutions to "involution" involve shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences suggest a transition in consumer demand from goods to services at certain GDP and urbanization levels [4][35] - The aging population and smaller household sizes are expected to further enhance demand for service consumption, particularly in areas like healthcare and leisure [45][52] Group 4 - Current policies are actively promoting service consumption, investment, and exports, marking a shift in the economic growth model from manufacturing to services [6][80] - Policies encouraging increased consumer time, such as extended holidays and new school breaks, are expected to boost service demand [6][80] - Service investment is seeing improvements due to policy support and relaxed regulations on private investment, with significant growth in sectors like education and entertainment [6][91]

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" is the imbalance between manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels, with a 0.2 billion increase, while service employment showed a shortfall of 0.4 billion compared to potential levels [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is notably below demand, with a potential investment gap of approximately 1.5 trillion [18][106] Group 2 - There is a significant gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita service consumption gap is projected to be 2,093 yuan, indicating a substantial unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - The long-term direction to address "involution" involves shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences suggest a transition in consumer demand from goods to services [4][107] - As GDP per capita reaches 10,000 to 30,000 USD and urbanization increases, service consumption typically rises, with a historical annual increase of about 0.6% [4][35] Group 4 - Policies are being implemented to enhance service consumption, investment, and exports, marking a shift in economic growth drivers from manufacturing to services [6][80] - Recent policy measures include extending legal holidays and encouraging more leisure time for residents, which is expected to boost service demand [6][108] - Service investment is seeing improvements due to regulatory relaxations and increased government support, with a notable growth rate of 15.3% in May, nearing the highest level since 2017 [91][109]

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" stems from an imbalance in the manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels (+0.2 billion), while service employment showed a notable shortfall (-0.4 billion) [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is approximately 1.5 trillion yuan below potential levels [18][106] Group 2 - There is a substantial gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - Long-term solutions to "involution" involve shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences indicate a transition in consumer demand from goods to services at certain GDP and urbanization levels [4][107] - The aging population and smaller household sizes are expected to further drive demand for service consumption, particularly in areas like healthcare and leisure [45][52] Group 4 - Current policies are actively promoting service consumption, investment, and exports, which are seen as the new "three drivers" of economic growth [6][80] - Measures such as extending statutory holidays and encouraging private investment in the service sector are expected to enhance service demand and investment [91][109] - The recovery of inbound tourism is anticipated to significantly contribute to service exports, with potential growth in travel exports projected at 60.5% year-on-year for 2024 [97][109]

Group 1 - The central urban work conference emphasizes the development of the life service industry to enhance public service levels and ensure the bottom line of people's livelihoods, positioning it as a key factor in improving urban livability and measuring the effectiveness of urban construction [1] - The life service industry is crucial for meeting residents' consumption needs, linking daily livelihoods with a vast market potential, and is essential for stabilizing employment, expanding domestic demand, and promoting transformation [1] - Current challenges in the life service industry include suboptimal layout, low quality, and insufficient momentum, with issues such as a lack of markets in new districts and scattered service points in old communities [1] Group 2 - Space renewal can amplify scale benefits by transforming urban villages and dilapidated housing into comprehensive service centers that integrate community dining, domestic services, childcare, and convenient repairs, creating small-scale, multi-functional, one-stop living scenarios [2] - Empowering platforms enhances operational resilience by building a shared platform that aggregates life service elements online and coordinates offline, promoting small and micro enterprises towards branding and chain development while ensuring safety and quality [2] - Risk prevention and development promotion must proceed simultaneously, with a focus on maintaining public service attributes for vulnerable groups and utilizing government pricing, subsidies, and service vouchers to ensure accessibility and quality [2]

Economic Performance Overview - China's GDP growth for the first half of 2025 stands at 5.3%, reflecting a steady performance amidst complex economic conditions [2][3] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating robust industrial activity [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.0%, showcasing resilience in the consumption market despite a slight slowdown in June [3] Trade and Financial Indicators - The total import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, highlighting China's strong connection with global markets [3] - The cumulative increase in social financing reached 22.83 trillion yuan, with RMB loans increasing by 12.92 trillion yuan, supporting the real economy [3] Consumption and Investment Dynamics - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, marking it as the primary driver of the economy [5] - Fixed asset investment growth was recorded at 2.8%, with real estate investment declining by 11.2%, indicating cautious corporate investment behavior [5][6] - Private investment, excluding real estate, grew by 5.1%, suggesting potential for recovery if the business environment improves [6] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% in June, ending a four-month decline, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% [7][8] - Price recovery in sectors such as energy and automobiles indicates a gradual warming of the economy, although traditional sectors continue to face downward pressure [7][8] Future Outlook - The economic trajectory is expected to follow a U-shaped pattern, with potential challenges in the second half of the year, particularly in real estate and traditional industries [10] - Policy directions from the central government aim to optimize urban structures and promote service industries, which could support economic stability and growth [10]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic operation in China during the first half of the year is stable and improving, with strong resilience and innovative vitality in the industrial economy, highlighted by three structural features. Group 1: Economic Performance - The primary industry shows accelerated growth with a 3.7% year-on-year increase in agricultural value added, ensuring food security through stable grain planting areas and a good summer harvest [2] - The secondary industry maintains a steady growth rate with a 6.4% year-on-year increase in industrial value added, slightly lower than the first quarter but within a reasonable range of 5.5%-6.5% [2] - The tertiary industry is experiencing robust growth, with a 5.5% year-on-year increase in service industry value added, indicating a significant recovery and acceleration in development [2] Group 2: Industrial Upgrades - The industrial sector is advancing towards new, green, and intelligent developments, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.5% year-on-year, outpacing overall industrial growth [3] - The production of green low-carbon products, such as wind power generators and high-performance chemical fibers, has seen significant increases of 72.0% and 36.6% respectively [5] - The digital manufacturing sector is also growing rapidly, with a 9.9% year-on-year increase in value added, showcasing the integration of artificial intelligence into traditional industries [6] Group 3: Service Sector Dynamics - The service sector's contribution to GDP is notable, with a 59.1% share and a contribution rate of 60.2%, indicating a dual-driven growth model [7] - The productive service industry is thriving, with significant growth in sectors like postal, telecommunications, and financial services, where business activity indices remain above 55.0% [7] - Consumer services are also innovating, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in retail service revenue and a notable rise in cultural and tourism sectors [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The industrial economy is expected to gain stronger momentum in the second half of the year, driven by coordinated macro policies, deepening new and old kinetic energy conversion, and expanding consumption scenarios [8]