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东吴证券晨会纪要-20250711
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-10 23:30
Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the US non-farm payroll data for June exceeded expectations, leading to a delay in interest rate cuts to September, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising by 6.89 basis points to 4.346% [1][8] - The ISM services PMI returned above the expansion line, reflecting strong economic data, while the unemployment rate decreased, contributing to a positive market sentiment [1][8] - The signing of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) increased the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41 trillion, which may shift market dynamics from "buy the rumor, sell the news" [1][8] Industry Analysis - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from the expansion of the Bond Connect southbound scheme, allowing more non-bank institutions to invest in Hong Kong's bond market, which could alleviate asset pressure on insurance companies [6][18] - The report notes that the demand for savings remains strong, and with regulatory guidance and proactive transformation by insurance companies, liability costs are expected to gradually decrease, easing pressure from interest rate spreads [6][18] - The valuation of the insurance sector is currently at historical lows, with estimates for 2025 ranging from 0.61 to 0.95 times PEV and 0.99 to 2.15 times PB, indicating significant upside potential [6][18] Company Analysis - Zorui Pharmaceutical is projected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 12% in H1 2025, with net profit expected to increase by 24.3% to 31.06% year-on-year, indicating strong performance [7] - The company is focusing on strategic expansion in the "Wuling Mushroom+" segment, which is anticipated to drive growth in the medium term [7] - The forecasted net profit for Zorui Pharmaceutical for 2025-2027 is estimated at 6.55 billion, 8.41 billion, and 10.41 billion respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 20, 16, and 13 times [7]