以下文章来源于一丰看金融 ，作者王一峰、赵晨阳 一、预计12月新增人民币贷款8000~10000亿左右，月末增速在6.3%~6.4% 一丰看金融 . 分享经济金融领域大事小情，路边新闻 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 3Q25以来，需求不足压制下信贷投放节奏趋缓，贷款增量读数持续同比少增。12月综合季节性特征、票据 利率走势等因素，预计新增贷款在0.8~1万亿左右，规模较去年同期略少，贷款增速落在6.3%附近。社融 层面，政府债发行进入尾声，对社融增长贡献度下降，年末信贷季节性放量、贷款核销加大等对社融读数 支撑作用显现，社融增速或落于8.3%一线。货币方面，年末财政开支强度加大对一般存款形成回补，M2 增速或稳中有增；春节错位叠加较高基数影响，M1增速预计 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月07日 银行业 2026 年经营展望：资产负债篇 优于大市 到期存款流向是资负格局的关键 预计 M2 增速目标约 7.5%，信贷增速约 6.0%，社融增速约 8.0%。合理的 M2 增长须与经济增长相匹配，2026 年是"十五五"开局之年，促进经济稳定增 长，物价合理回升将作为政策的重要考量因素，预计实际 GDP 增速目标约 4.9%，名义 GDP 增速目标约 5.0%，对应的合理 M2 增速目标约 7.5%。以此测 算，2026 年 M2 增量约 25.4 万亿元，其中，财政净投放 M2 约 12.0 万亿元， 银行信贷（加回核销和 ABS）投放约 16.8 万亿元，其他因素合计回笼 M2 约 3.4 万亿元。对应的新增社融约 35.3 万亿元，增速约 8.0%。 信贷投向：对公强支持，贡献新增贷款约 80%~85%，零售结构性边际改善贡 献新增贷款约 10%~15%。2025 年 12 月《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重 要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，后续消费复苏需关注居民收入增速等 因素。我们判断 2026 年零售信贷呈现零售端呈现结构性分化，优质消 费场景信贷改善，个人 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月07日 银行业 2026 年经营展望：资产负债篇 优于大市 到期存款流向是资负格局的关键 预计 M2 增速目标约 7.5%，信贷增速约 6.0%，社融增速约 8.0%。合理的 M2 增长须与经济增长相匹配，2026 年是"十五五"开局之年，促进经济稳定增 长，物价合理回升将作为政策的重要考量因素，预计实际 GDP 增速目标约 4.9%，名义 GDP 增速目标约 5.0%，对应的合理 M2 增速目标约 7.5%。以此测 算，2026 年 M2 增量约 25.4 万亿元，其中，财政净投放 M2 约 12.0 万亿元， 银行信贷（加回核销和 ABS）投放约 16.8 万亿元，其他因素合计回笼 M2 约 3.4 万亿元。对应的新增社融约 35.3 万亿元，增速约 8.0%。 信贷投向：对公强支持，贡献新增贷款约 80%~85%，零售结构性边际改善贡 献新增贷款约 10%~15%。2025 年 12 月《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重 要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，后续消费复苏需关注居民收入增速等 因素。我们判断 2026 年零售信贷呈现零售端呈现结构性分化，优质消 费场景信贷改善，个人 ...

hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 04 日 新增贷款或延续同比少增 ——2025 年 12 月金融数据预测 投资要点： 核心预判：依据过往信贷投放规律及行业观察等，我们预测 2025 年 12 月新增贷款 7000 亿元，社融增量 1.8 万亿元；12 月末，M2 达 338.1 万亿，YoY+7.8%，M1（新口径） YoY +4.4%，社融增速 8.2%。 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 12 月新增贷款或同比少增。四季度银行信贷投放动力不强，叠加信贷需求较弱，新 增贷款或较低。我们预计 12 月新增贷款 7000 亿，同比少增；个贷-200 亿，对公 +6500 亿，非银同业贷款+500 亿。实体经济融资需求较弱，贷款利率管控可能促使 优质企业发债来偿还贷款，进一步减少信贷需求。近年房价下跌及 5 月份定期存款 利率下调可能提升按揭早偿压力；内需偏弱，消费信贷需求较弱。我们预计 12 月个 贷短期-500 亿，个贷中长期+30 ...

对话 2026 年关键词：金融地产篇 20251224 摘要 非银金融板块，尤其是线上保险和券商，在未来一年内相较于银行更具 增长潜力。线上保险受益于权益仓位占比提升，若股市走牛，投资端收 益将显著增强；居民资产配置调整也利好保险的稳健收益产品。 保险公司 H 股修复明显，A 股滞后，预计 2026 年基本面将进一步改善。 险种结构优化，新险种如商保、医保数据探索和分红型重疾险有望带来 增量，同时报行合一推进提升保单利润率。 券商在跨年行情中表现良好，春季躁动期间胜率高。尽管今年 A 股券商 表现不佳，但业绩持续释放和市场活跃度提升未充分定价，使其具备超 额收益潜力。 2026 年银行业策略关注息差和资产增速。房地产政策影响下，银行量 价将呈现均衡格局，息差成为核心营收增长关键。贷款定价有望触底回 升，存款利率调降推动息差 L 型筑底。 预计 2026 年信贷增量持平或略低于 2025 年，社融增速和信贷增速剪 刀差延续。存款利率下行，信贷扩张放缓，存贷增速维持紧平衡。核心 营收预计小幅增长，非息收入是关键扰动因素。 Q&A 2026 年金融板块的投资机会和风险如何？ 在 2026 年，金融板块可能成为推动指 ...

每经AI快讯，中信证券研报表示，金融统计数据报告显示，11月社融增速保持8.5%，实体融资总体稳 定，信贷结构分化明显：企业贷款和债券融资改善，居民融资持续偏弱，政府债仍是重要支撑。政策层 面，中央经济工作会议明确财政与投资托底方向，为银行扩表和对公中长贷提供良好环境，同时强调稳 妥化解地方与房地产风险，夯实资产质量底线。银行息差预期和风险预期保持稳定，有助权益市场表 现。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall financial data in November remains on a downward trajectory, with net financing amounts decreasing for both government and household sectors, while corporate financing shows improvement, primarily driven by short-term needs [2][3]. Financial Data Overview - In November, the total social financing (社融) increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, which is 159.7 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Government net financing was 1.20 trillion yuan, while household net financing was -205.8 billion yuan, indicating a decrease for both sectors [3]. - Corporate sector financing expanded significantly, with net financing of 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 584.9 billion yuan year-on-year. This improvement is mainly attributed to short-term loans and on-balance-sheet and off-balance-sheet bill financing [3]. M1 and M2 Trends - The most significant marginal change is observed in M1, which has shown a decline in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates. The year-on-year growth rate of M1 in November was 4.9%, down 1.3 percentage points from October, while M2's year-on-year growth rate was 8.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points [2][4]. - The month-on-month growth rate of M1 in November was 0.8%, marking the second-lowest level for the same month since 2020. Seasonal adjustments indicate that M1's month-on-month growth may even enter negative territory [4]. Sectoral Analysis - The financing demand from the household sector remains weak, while the corporate sector is experiencing expansion. The government sector's financing is primarily influenced by the overall fiscal strategy for 2025 [3]. - Corporate bond financing reached 416.9 billion yuan in November, an increase of 178.8 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a concentrated release of corporate bond issuance following stabilization in the bond market [3].

Financial Overview - In November, the total social financing (社融) stock growth rate remained at 8.5%, unchanged from October, but is expected to decline slightly by year-end[2] - The M2 growth rate in November was 8.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from October, while M1 growth rate fell to 4.9%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points[2] - The net financing for the government sector in November was 1.20 trillion yuan, while the net financing for the household sector was -205.8 billion yuan, indicating a decrease for both sectors[2] Corporate Financing - Corporate sector net financing in November was 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 584.9 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by short-term loans and bill financing[2] - Corporate bond financing reached 416.9 billion yuan in November, up 178.8 billion yuan from the previous year, reflecting a recovery in bond market sentiment[3] M1 Trends - The M1 growth rate has shown significant weakness, with a November year-on-year decline attributed to both high base effects and weaker month-on-month trends[3] - The month-on-month M1 growth rate for November was 0.8%, the second lowest level for the same month since 2020, with seasonal adjustments potentially indicating a negative growth[3] Real Estate Market Insights - The real estate market showed slight recovery with the real estate sentiment index rising to 95.1 from 94.9, although new home sales compared to 2019 saw a widening decline of 57.3%[4] - The net financing for real estate companies turned positive at 3.2 billion yuan, indicating a marginal improvement in credit conditions for the sector[5]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2025 12 13 年 月 日 固定收益点评 融资依然存在放缓压力 11 月贷款增速继续放缓，居民贷款连续负增长，票据冲量特征明显。11 月新增信贷 3900 亿元，同比少增 1900 亿元，新增信贷规模已连续 5 个 月同比少增。从分项来看，信贷增长依然依赖于票据冲量，居民贷款及企 业中长期贷款新增规模同比均延续少增态势。11 月企业信贷当月新增 6100 亿元，同比增加 3600 亿元，主要得益于短期贷款的增加。其中企业 中长期贷款当月新增 1700 亿元，同比少增 400 亿元；而票据融资当月新 增 3342 亿元，同比多增 2119 亿元。居民贷款方面，11 月居民贷款新增 -2063 亿元，同比多减 4763 亿元。其中居民中长期贷款当月新增 100 亿 元，同比少增 2900 亿元；居民短贷当月新增-2158 亿元，同比多减 1788 亿元。居民贷款已连续两个月新增为负，且同比连续 5 个月同比少增，这 与地产销售放缓一致。 社融同比小幅多增，增速保持平稳。11 月新增社融 2.49 万亿元，同比多 增 1597 亿元，社融存量同比增长 8. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the banking sector [6] Core Insights - The growth rate of social financing is stabilizing, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in November 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous month. Excluding government bonds, the growth rate is 6.0%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [6] - New social financing in November amounted to 2.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, primarily supported by corporate bond issuance, while credit and government bonds showed negative growth [6] - The report highlights a trend of short-term borrowing among enterprises, with corporate loans increasing by 610 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 360 billion yuan [6][4] Summary by Sections 1. Social Financing Data - In November, the total social financing growth rate was 8.5%, with a new social financing addition of 2.49 trillion yuan, up 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate excluding government bonds was 6.0% [6][2] - Corporate bond financing net increased by 416.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 178.8 billion yuan, primarily driven by state-owned enterprises [6][4] 2. Credit and Loan Trends - The report indicates a weak increase in credit, with November's RMB loan growth rate at 6.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. New loans for the month totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan [6] - Personal loans decreased by 206.3 billion yuan, with short-term loans down by 215.8 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating pressure on both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans [4][6] 3. Deposit Trends - RMB deposit growth rate in November was 7.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with new deposits amounting to 1.41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 760 billion yuan [6] - The report notes a slowdown in deposit migration, with corporate deposits increasing by 645.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94.7 billion yuan [6][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment themes: identifying banks with potential for performance growth, emphasizing banks with convertible bond expectations, and continuing dividend strategies [6]