Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current caustic soda market has low upward momentum due to the pressure on Shandong spot goods, lack of improvement in exports, and no start of alumina stocking before production. However, the optimistic expectation cannot be falsified in the short - term, so the market may show wide - range fluctuations [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 01 - contract futures price is 2641, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong is 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2438, and the basis is - 204 [3]. - Since September 21, the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been reduced by 10 yuan/ton, with an ex - factory price of 750 yuan/ton [3]. Market Condition Analysis - The caustic soda spot in Shandong is under pressure. The price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is weak due to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia caused by new capacity of Vinythai and high supply in Japan and South Korea. The high production and inventory of alumina have compressed profits, and marginal capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future [4]. - Although there is a stocking demand of 5.6 million tons of new capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the low - profit situation may lead to a decline in the stocking level of other alumina plants. Before stocking starts, it is difficult for the market to achieve resonance between the spot and futures markets [4]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [5].