资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货研究 烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2528 780 2438 -91 2025 年 9 月 29 日 以山东地区为基准，9 月 26 日山东液碱局部维稳，小长假来临，多数企业急于去库，短期市场依旧偏 弱运行。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱山东 32 碱现货仍承压，但未来氧化铝投产带来的乐观预期短期又无法证伪。近期 50 碱反而因区 域套利，价格出现上涨，50 碱-32 碱价差扩张，厂家 50 碱库存压力大幅缓解，50 碱的支撑会导致现货短期 进一步下跌空间或有限。 从氧化铝方面看，氧化铝高产量、高库存格局，使得利润被持续压缩，边际产能供应未来可能受利润影 响。虽然广西地区年底到明年年初存在 560 万吨新增产能的备货需求，后期氧化铝备货将带动国内 50 碱货 源流转，但低利润的格局也可能使得其他氧化铝厂的备货水平下滑。在囤货未开启前，市场也难以判断囤货 带来的缺口 ...

烧碱：弱现实压制 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2535 780 2438 -98 2025 年 9 月 24 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，9 月 23 日山东低度碱市场局部弱势稳定，高价下游抵触下，部分企业库存略显压 力，本周重点是企业降库应对假期。目前市场低价已接近成本线，部分下游开始有计划补库。高度碱则受到 短期订单支撑，暂时反弹。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱山东 32 碱现货仍承压，但未来氧化铝投产带来的乐观预期短期又无法证伪。近期 50 碱反而因区 域套利，价格出现上涨，50 碱-32 碱价差扩张，厂家 50 碱库存压力大幅缓解。虽然 50 碱的支撑会导致现 货短期进一步下跌空间或有限，但期货盘面受近月多头接货压力压制，短期或低位震荡。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 从氧化铝方面看，氧化铝高产量、高库存格局，使得利润 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current caustic soda market has low upward momentum due to the pressure on Shandong spot goods, lack of improvement in exports, and no start of alumina stocking before production. However, the optimistic expectation cannot be falsified in the short - term, so the market may show wide - range fluctuations [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 01 - contract futures price is 2641, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong is 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2438, and the basis is - 204 [3]. - Since September 21, the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been reduced by 10 yuan/ton, with an ex - factory price of 750 yuan/ton [3]. Market Condition Analysis - The caustic soda spot in Shandong is under pressure. The price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is weak due to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia caused by new capacity of Vinythai and high supply in Japan and South Korea. The high production and inventory of alumina have compressed profits, and marginal capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future [4]. - Although there is a stocking demand of 5.6 million tons of new capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the low - profit situation may lead to a decline in the stocking level of other alumina plants. Before stocking starts, it is difficult for the market to achieve resonance between the spot and futures markets [4]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [5].