Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The caustic soda market is currently under weak real - world pressure, but cost support is strong, and the market may show wide - range fluctuations [3]. - The current caustic soda futures are affected by the spot pressure of Shandong 32% caustic soda, and there are intertwined long - and short - term expectations that cannot be falsified in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - On September 29, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price was 2528, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was - 91 [1]. 2. Spot News - On September 26, the local liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. With the approaching of the long holiday, most enterprises were eager to reduce inventory, and the short - term market was still weak [2]. 3. Market Condition Analysis - The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is still under pressure, but the optimistic expectation brought by future alumina production cannot be falsified in the short term. The price of 50% caustic soda has risen due to regional arbitrage, and the inventory pressure of 50% caustic soda has been greatly relieved, limiting the further short - term decline of the spot price [3]. - The high - output and high - inventory pattern of alumina has compressed profits, and the marginal production capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future. Although there is a demand for 5.6 million tons of new capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the low - profit pattern may also lead to a decline in the inventory level of other alumina plants [3]. - Before the inventory - building starts, it is difficult to judge the gap caused by inventory - building, so the futures market is still trading the weak reality. The export situation has slightly improved compared with the previous period, and the Shandong - South China regional arbitrage also supports the 50% caustic soda market. The cost of caustic soda is strongly supported by the increase in Shandong's grid electricity price in October [3]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda market is currently under pressure from weak reality, with the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price remaining under pressure. However, the optimistic expectations brought by future alumina production cannot be falsified in the short term. The market may show wide - range fluctuations due to the interweaving of long and short expectations [3] - The caustic soda futures market may experience low - level oscillations in the short term due to the pressure on near - month long - position takers. Before the alumina starts stocking for production, the market is still trading based on the weak reality [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On September 24, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price was 2535, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot in Shandong was 780, the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was - 98 [1] Spot News - As of September 23, the low - concentration caustic soda market in Shandong was locally weak and stable. Under the resistance of high - price downstream buyers, some enterprises faced inventory pressure, and the key this week was for enterprises to reduce inventory in preparation for the holiday. Some downstream buyers started to plan for restocking as the current low prices were close to the cost line. High - concentration caustic soda rebounded temporarily due to short - term order support [2] Market Condition Analysis - The Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price is under pressure, but the short - term decline space may be limited due to the support of 50% caustic soda. The futures market may experience low - level oscillations due to the pressure on near - month long - position takers [3] - The high - output and high - inventory pattern of alumina has continuously compressed profits, and the marginal production capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future. Although there is a stocking demand for 5.6 million tons of new alumina production capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the low - profit situation may also lead to a decline in the stocking levels of other alumina plants [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current caustic soda market has low upward momentum due to the pressure on Shandong spot goods, lack of improvement in exports, and no start of alumina stocking before production. However, the optimistic expectation cannot be falsified in the short - term, so the market may show wide - range fluctuations [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 01 - contract futures price is 2641, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong is 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2438, and the basis is - 204 [3]. - Since September 21, the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been reduced by 10 yuan/ton, with an ex - factory price of 750 yuan/ton [3]. Market Condition Analysis - The caustic soda spot in Shandong is under pressure. The price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is weak due to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia caused by new capacity of Vinythai and high supply in Japan and South Korea. The high production and inventory of alumina have compressed profits, and marginal capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future [4]. - Although there is a stocking demand of 5.6 million tons of new capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the low - profit situation may lead to a decline in the stocking level of other alumina plants. Before stocking starts, it is difficult for the market to achieve resonance between the spot and futures markets [4]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [5].