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格林大华期货研究院专题报告:丙烯产业链和期货期权介绍
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 15:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 30, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange solicited public opinions on propylene futures and options contracts and futures business rules, and propylene futures and options are about to be listed for trading. The listing will connect the olefin industrial chain, enabling futures and options linkages between raw materials, propylene, and downstream products, facilitating industrial chain hedging for enterprises [2]. - As an important intermediate product in the chemical olefin industrial chain, propylene allows upstream and downstream enterprises to use futures and options tools to effectively manage price - fluctuation risks, optimize production and operation decisions, enhance China's pricing influence in the chemical industry, and promote high - quality industry development [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basics - Propylene is a colorless, odorless, slightly sweet, and extremely flammable gas with a low explosion limit (2% - 11.1%). It has low solubility in water but is soluble in organic solvents such as ethanol and ether. It is mainly used to produce polypropylene and can also synthesize chemicals like acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, etc., with wide applications in plastics, medicine, and agriculture [4]. - Propylene, as a hazardous chemical, has high requirements for transportation and storage. It is mainly transported by pipelines, tank trucks, and ships. In China, most propylene is transported over short distances within regions. Storage usually uses pressure storage tanks or steel cylinders [6]. 3.2 Main Production Processes and Upstream - Downstream Industrial Chain of Propylene - The main production processes of propylene include catalytic cracking, steam cracking, coal/methanol - to - olefins (CTO/MTO), and propane dehydrogenation to olefins (PDH). The traditional processes of crude oil catalytic cracking and naphtha steam cracking have drawbacks such as low propylene yield and high energy consumption [7]. - The coal - to - olefins process can achieve clean and efficient use of coal resources and reduce dependence on petroleum resources. The propane dehydrogenation process has advantages such as high propylene yield and a short process flow. As of March 2025, the production capacities of catalytic cracking, steam cracking, PDH, and coal - based processes were 1229, 2246, 2410, and 1261 million tons, accounting for 17%, 31%, 34%, and 18% respectively [8]. - In China's propylene downstream consumption, polypropylene accounts for the largest proportion (about 70.3%), followed by acrylonitrile and propylene oxide (about 6.9%), butyl octanol (6.7%), acrylic acid (3.9%), and other chemicals (about 5.3%) [11]. 3.3 Overview of Propylene Supply - Demand Pattern - As of 2024, China is the world's largest producer and consumer of propylene, with its production capacity accounting for about 41.2% of the global total. From 2023 to 2024, China's propylene production capacity increased by 664 million tons to 6973 million tons (a growth rate of 10.5%), production increased by 558.35 million tons to 5340.67 million tons (a growth rate of 11.6%), and apparent consumption increased by 516.94 million tons to 5535.4 million tons (a growth rate of 10.3%) [12][13]. - China's propylene imports have been declining. In 2024, imports were 201.8 million tons, a 35.5% decrease from the peak of 312.7 million tons in 2019. South Korea, Japan, and China's Taiwan region are the main import sources, accounting for 73.8%, 18.5%, and 1.2% respectively in 2024 [16]. - The East China region is the largest propylene production and consumption area in China, with Shandong being the largest propylene - producing province, accounting for about 20% of the national capacity. The Northwest region has a large supply of coal - based polypropylene. The consumption areas and main production areas of propylene are basically the same [19][20]. 3.4 Introduction to Propylene Futures and Options Contracts - On May 30, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange solicited public opinions on propylene futures and options contracts and futures business rules, and released the draft contracts. The propylene options contract has details such as contract type (call and put options), trading unit (1 lot of propylene futures contract), and other specifications [21][24]. - Propylene uses warehouse standard warehouse receipts and factory - warehouse standard warehouse receipts for delivery. The position limits are 2000 lots in normal months, 500 lots in months approaching delivery, and 50 lots in the delivery month [25].