Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Plastics: ☆☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical risks, supply and demand dynamics, and macro - economic uncertainties. Different chemical products show different trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Acrylonitrile futures main contract oscillated and consolidated during the day. Enterprises' offers were mainly stable, with individual prices slightly rising. Downstream demand followed as needed, and the trading range changed little [2] - Plastic and polypropylene main contracts rose and then fell during the day, still closing above the 5 - day moving average. For polyethylene, due to strong macro uncertainties and repeated news, the market sold goods as the market went. Downstream procurement was cautious, and transactions were weak. For polypropylene, the impact of geopolitical risk sentiment decreased, the supply - demand contradiction returned, the supply side continued to reduce production, and downstream enterprises resisted high - priced goods, so the market price was difficult to rise and mainly oscillated [2] Polyester - The Middle East situation still affects crude oil supply, and concerns about chemical production reduction have not been completely eliminated. PX and PTA followed the price decline during the day. Terminal chasing willingness was insufficient, mainly digesting inventory. Polyester filament yarns accumulated inventory, and the load reduction would affect raw material demand, bringing negative feedback pressure to the market. PTA's start - up was stable with a slight increase, the processing margin oscillated weakly, and the monthly spread fell from a high level [3] - The shortage of raw materials led to a significant reduction in the load of ethylene glycol plants in South China, a decline in port inventory, and the synthetic gas method was about to enter the maintenance period, so the market was worried about a continuous decline in supply, and ethylene glycol showed strength. However, the reduction in polyester load dragged down demand. Repeated news affected market sentiment, and it was expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [3] - The short - fiber load decreased slightly. The finished - product inventory of downstream textile enterprises decreased, but they still mainly digested raw materials. The market was mainly affected by the Middle East situation, and prices fell with raw materials during the day. The sharp price fluctuations affected terminal orders, and attention should be paid to potential negative feedback pressure from the terminal and the evolution of the situation in the medium term [3] - A large bottle - chip manufacturer announced force majeure, resulting in a reduction in long - term contracts. The reduction in supply and the expectation of rising demand led to an increase in the monthly spread and benefits. However, the bottle - chip production capacity was abundant. If the load was increased, the price might be under pressure again. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the situation and the load performance of the bottle - chip industry [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The futures price of benzene fell, and the ex - factory price of Shandong local refineries continued to decline. Refineries were worried about the stability of raw material supply and entered a defensive production reduction. Last week, the domestic benzene production decreased. The arrival volume of pure benzene in East China decreased significantly, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased. The short - term benzene market was affected by cost and supply, and attention should be paid to the evolution of geopolitical risks and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz [5] - The styrene futures main contract oscillated around the 5 - day moving average during the day. The restart and maintenance of styrene production plants coexisted, the inventory in Jiangsu ports increased slightly, and the market trading sentiment was in a game. Among the three S downstream products, the profit of PS was in deficit, and the load was significantly reduced. Other downstream products also had a certain expectation of load reduction. Overall, there were expectations of a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the reduction in demand might be less than that in supply [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures main contract rose continuously. The import arrival volume in coastal areas decreased, the MTO start - up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas was basically flat month - on - month, and the inventory in East China ports continued to decrease. The start - up of domestic methanol plants decreased, traditional downstream industries gradually resumed production, and the external procurement of olefin plants in the production area increased, so the production enterprises' inventory decreased. Geopolitical factors were still the key to affecting the short - term methanol market. With the expected continuous tightening of imports, the phased decline in domestic supply, and the recovery of demand, the methanol market was expected to run strongly [6] - The urea futures continued to fall, and the spot price decreased slightly. The supply remained high. Currently, the wheat green - turning fertilizer in North China and the Huanghuaihai region has gradually entered the final stage, and there is still some rigid demand in central Shandong. The support of agricultural demand has weakened stage by stage. Compound fertilizer enterprises have gradually increased their load, and the start - up has continued to increase. This week, urea production enterprises have significantly reduced their inventory. The domestic fertilizer export has been further tightened. Under the influence of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the short - term market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC fell during the day. The prices of ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC were differentiated, and the price of calcium carbide weakened. Ethylene - based enterprises reduced their load, while calcium - carbide - based enterprises increased their load, and the overall supply decreased. The industry inventory decreased, but there was still pressure. The downstream start - up increased seasonally, but attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance during the process of a sharp rise in raw material prices. The Asian supply was tight, and the export market was expected to be good. Geopolitical conflicts pushed up the cost of ethylene - based PVC, and the shortage of ethylene raw materials affected the domestic and foreign supply. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the subsequent geopolitical situation and the supply of ethylene [7] - The caustic soda price fell from a high level. The liquid caustic soda inventory decreased, the export inquiry was good, and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda increased significantly. The national start - up decreased, and the supply pressure was slightly relieved. The liquid chlorine price has fallen recently. Attention should be paid to the change in the profit of chlor - alkali integration. The demand for alumina was mainly stable, the non - aluminum demand improved month - on - month, and the export inquiry improved. It is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term. Currently, the profit is expanding rapidly, and the basis is too large. Attention should be paid to the possibility of large fluctuations after the sentiment cools down [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell from a high level. The industry inventory decreased slightly, but there was still pressure. Some plants increased their load, and the supply increased slightly. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable, the demand for light soda increased month - on - month, and downstream enterprises purchased as needed. There was resistance to high prices. It will fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short term. In the long term, after the sentiment fades, the strategy of shorting on the right side at high prices can be considered [8] - Glass was operating weakly. Recently, the inventory - replenishing sentiment has decreased. Currently, the inventory of the middle and upper reaches is relatively high, and it needs the actual downstream demand to drive inventory reduction. The production line was cold - repaired, and the production capacity decreased slightly recently. The downstream resumed work slowly, and the demand improvement was limited. After the macro - sentiment fades, the market will return to fundamental trading. Currently, the inventory pressure of the middle and upper reaches is relatively large. If the processing orders do not recover well, the futures price may fall again after the sentiment cools down, and the overall operation may be in a wide - range oscillation [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but includes individual commodity trend strengths, such as strong (2), moderately strong (1), neutral (0), moderately weak (-1), and weak (-2) [72][75][85] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market conditions, and trends of various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors significantly influence commodity prices [72][104][137] Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out. The price of Comex gold 2602 rose 1.02%, and London gold spot rose 0.63%. The trend strength is 0 [2][7] - **Silver**: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction. The price of Comex silver 2602 rose 1.78%, and London silver spot rose 1.86%. The trend strength is 0 [2][7] - **Platinum**: Continuously monitor the support at the current level. The price of platinum futures 2606 rose 3.73%. The trend strength is 0 [25] - **Palladium**: There was a significant outflow from ETF holdings. The price of palladium futures 2606 rose 2.31%. The trend strength is 0 [25] Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory increase is pressuring prices. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract fell 0.30%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk fell 1.07%. The trend strength is 0 [2][10] - **Zinc**: Facing headwinds in the real - world situation. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract fell 0.86%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk fell 0.44%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][13] - **Lead**: Reduced overseas inventory supports prices. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose 1.75%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk rose 1.16%. The trend strength is 0 [2][16] - **Tin**: Trading in a range. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.63%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk fell 0.97%. The trend strength is 0 [2][20] - **Aluminum**: Trading in a range. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 180. The trend strength is 0 [23] - **Nickel**: The accumulation of smelting inventory and macro - sentiment resonate, while the shortage at the mine end supports the downside. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 460. The trend strength is 0 [30] - **Stainless Steel**: Fundamentals and macro - factors exert pressure, while the actual cost provides support. The price of the stainless - steel main contract fell 25. The trend strength is 0 [30] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The report does not directly cover crude oil, but geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have a significant impact on energy - related commodities [137] - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: Trading in a wide range. The price of the coking coal 2605 contract fell 5. The trend strength is 0 [59] - **Coke**: Trading in a wide range. The price of the coke 2605 contract fell 14. The trend strength is 0 [59] - **Steam Coal**: Prices in the producing areas are rising, and the decline at ports is slowing. The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 coal remained unchanged at 585. The trend strength is - 1 [62] - **Fuel Oil**: Narrow - range adjustment, with prices remaining high in the short term. The price of the fuel oil 2604 contract fell 1.67%. The trend strength is 0 [129] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rose at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounded. The price of the low - sulfur fuel oil 2604 contract fell 1.26%. The trend strength is 1 [129] Agricultural Products - **Grains**: - **Corn**: Trading in a range. The price of the corn 2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 0 [161] - **Soybeans**: - **Soybean Meal**: The market sentiment is recovering, and Dalian soybean meal may trade in a range. The price of the DCE soybean meal 2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 0 [157] - **Soybean**: The spot price in the producing areas is stable, and the futures price may trade in a range. The price of the DCE soybean 2605 contract rose 0.02%. The trend strength is 0 [158] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: There are frequent speculative themes, and it remains strong in the short term. The price of the palm oil main contract fell 0.56%. The trend strength is 1 [151] - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force from the soybean complex is limited. Attention should be paid to the China - US consultation process. The price of the soybean oil main contract fell 0.83%. The trend strength is 0 [151] - **Others**: - **Eggs**: Trading in a range. The price of the egg 2604 contract fell 0.46%. The trend strength is 0 [176] - **Hogs**: De - stocking and weight - reduction will start, and the duration may exceed expectations. The price of the hog 2605 contract fell 115. The trend strength is - 2 [179] - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The price of the peanut 604 contract rose 0.15%. The trend strength is 0 [184] Chemical Products - **Aromatics and Derivatives**: - **Para - Xylene**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the PX main contract fell 1.59%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **PTA**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the PTA main contract fell 0.92%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **MEG**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the MEG main contract fell 1.45%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **Styrene**: Oscillating strongly. The price of the styrene 2605 contract rose 101. The trend strength is 1 [109] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating strongly. The price of the pure benzene 2605 contract fell 10. The trend strength is 1 [148] - **Polyolefins**: - **LLDPE**: Cracking supply is contracting, and downstream resistance to high prices is emerging. The price of the LLDPE 2605 contract fell 2.09%. The trend strength is 1 [82] - **PP**: The supply of multiple raw materials is restricted, and exports continue to be favorable. The price of the PP 2605 contract fell 2.10%. The trend strength is 1 [82] - **Others**: - **Caustic Soda**: The futures premium is relatively large, and the market is oscillating widely. The price of the caustic soda 05 contract is 2523. The trend strength is 0 [87] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating weakly. The price of the paper pulp main contract fell 144. The trend strength is - 1 [91] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of the glass 605 contract fell 1.97%. The trend strength is 0 [97] - **Methanol**: Running strongly. The price of the methanol main contract rose 10. The trend strength is 1 [100] - **Urea**: Oscillating widely, with fundamentals supporting prices. The price of the urea 05 contract fell 22. The trend strength is 0 [106] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price of the soda ash 2605 contract fell 1.43%. The trend strength is 1 [112] - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances at the cost end may lead to a supply reduction. The price of the propylene 2604 contract fell 2.14%. The trend strength is 1 [117] - **PVC**: Adjusting in the short term. The price of the PVC 05 contract is 5901. The trend strength is 0 [125] Others - **Logs**: The cost is rising, and prices are increasing. The price of the log 2605 contract rose 0.4%. The trend strength is 0 [64] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical sentiment disturbances. The price of the EC2604 contract fell 0.04%. The trend strength is 1 [131] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: High - level fluctuations, with strong cost - driven factors. The price of the short - fiber 2604 contract fell 20, and the price of the bottle - chip 2604 contract fell 348. The trend strength is 1 [141] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The price of the 70g Tianyang paper in the Shandong market remained unchanged at 4500. The trend strength is 0 [144] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar is strengthening, and it is oscillating strongly. The price of the sugar futures main contract fell 66. The trend strength is 1 [165] - **Cotton**: Temporarily showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. The price of the CF2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 1 [169]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The chemical market is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical risks, supply and demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations. Different chemical products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. With price concessions, downstream demand increased, inventory pressure eased, and prices rose slightly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures fluctuated above the 5 - day moving average. For polyethylene, supply decreased due to more maintenance and less imports, and demand was stable. For polypropylene, supply was expected to shrink, but high prices restricted downstream procurement [2] Polyester - PX and PTA prices declined due to negative factors such as tanker passage in the Strait of Hormuz and terminal feedback. Middle - East oil supply may recover, and terminal demand was weak [3] - Ethylene glycol prices first rose due to supply concerns and then fell due to reduced negative expectations and downstream feedback [3] - Short - fiber load decreased slightly, and the market followed raw material fluctuations. Bottle - chip supply decreased, and prices may be pressured if oil supply recovers [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - East China pure benzene spot prices fell, and domestic production decreased. Port inventory decreased. Short - term prices were affected by cost and supply [5] - Styrene futures opened low and closed high, with a high - level consolidation pattern. Supply and demand were expected to decrease, and the fundamentals had some support [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures maintained a high - level shock. Import and domestic supply decreased, and demand recovered. The market was expected to be strong [6] - Urea futures prices fell, and the spot market was stable with a slight decline. Supply was high, and agricultural demand weakened. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC continued a strong trend. Supply decreased, inventory was still under pressure, and downstream demand increased seasonally. It was expected to be strong in the short term [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased, and export inquiries were good. The market followed sentiment but might have large fluctuations [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell from a high level. Inventory decreased slightly, supply increased slightly, and demand was stable. It followed macro - sentiment in the short term [8] - Glass fluctuated weakly. Inventory was high, and demand improvement was limited. It might show a wide - range shock [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including olefins, polyesters, pure benzene - styrene, coal - chemical products, chlor - alkali products, and soda ash - glass. It takes into account factors such as supply, demand, geopolitical risks, and cost to predict the price trends of these products [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures main contract oscillated and consolidated. With price concessions, downstream demand increased, inventory pressure eased, and prices rose slightly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene main contracts oscillated above the 5 - day moving average. For polyethylene, supply decreased due to more maintenance and less cargo arrival, and demand was stable. For polypropylene, supply was expected to shrink, but high prices restricted downstream procurement [2] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fell due to factors like tanker passage in the Strait of Hormuz and terminal negative feedback. Middle - East oil supply might recover, and terminal demand was affected [3] - Ethylene glycol prices first rose due to supply concerns and then fell as the situation changed. Short - fiber load decreased slightly, and bottle - chip supply shrank with potential price pressure in the medium - term [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - East China pure benzene spot price fell, and domestic production decreased. The arrival volume decreased, and port inventory declined. Styrene futures main contract continued high - level consolidation, with expected supply and demand reduction and some fundamental support [5] Coal - chemical - Methanol futures maintained high - level oscillation. Import volume decreased, port inventory decreased, and the market was expected to be strong. Urea futures price fell, supply was high, and the market was expected to oscillate in the short - term [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC continued a strong trend. Supply decreased, inventory was still under pressure, and it was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Caustic soda oscillated weakly, with inventory decrease and potential large fluctuations [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell from a high level. Inventory decreased slightly, supply increased slightly, and it followed macro - sentiment in the short - term. Glass oscillated weakly, with high inventory and limited demand improvement, and was expected to oscillate in a wide range [8]

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on March 16, 2026 [3] Commodity Performance - As of the close on January 16, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose over 10%, bottle chips rose over 7%, ethylene glycol (EG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, polypropylene (PP), plastic, and palm oil rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Shanghai silver fell over 6%, palladium fell over 4%, platinum, container shipping on the European line, rapeseed meal, polysilicon, Shanghai tin, and live pigs fell over 3%, and glass and Shanghai gold fell over 2% [6] - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract rose 0.08%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.26%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.62%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.23%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) main contract fell 0.04%, the 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) main contract fell 0.08%, the 10-year treasury bond futures (T) main contract fell 0.11%, and the 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) main contract fell 0.43% [7] Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, and if the conflict continues, inflation pressure will rise, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper prices. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year has converged to one, providing weak support for copper prices [9] - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, China imported 4.934 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventories are at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the shortage of copper resources still supports copper prices [9] - The spread between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has narrowed. The output of electrolytic copper in March increased by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. On the demand side, the copper product sector has seen an increase in开工 after the "Golden March and Silver April." However, terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the feedback on copper prices from the terminal is weak. New energy vehicle production and sales decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% year-on-year respectively [9] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be weak this week. If the war continues and inflation expectations rise, copper prices will remain weak. If the situation eases, copper prices may rebound [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed lower today but rebounded at the end of the session. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 156,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 153,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [11] - Lithium concentrate exports from all lithium producers in Zimbabwe have been suspended. Local lithium mining companies are submitting new export license applications to the Zimbabwean government, and the approval process is expected to take 2 to 4 weeks. The domestic production schedule in March 2026 is 106,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.4%. There is a high probability of复产 in the domestic lithium mining sector, which is a potential negative factor [11] - Overall inventory continues to decline, but the decline rate is narrowing. Downstream inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation rate has slowed down. Terminal demand shows a marginal weakening trend. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are marginally weakening. If the news of the new export license application is confirmed, the previous gains may be reversed. The supply is expected to continue to increase, while the demand is approaching the photovoltaic tariff window period. The market is expected to be in a wide range of fluctuations in the short term [11] Crude Oil - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, but the decrease in refined oil inventories was significant, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories [12] - The US, Israel, and Iran are still attacking each other. Iran's daily oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is located, is a major shipping route for crude oil. The near-complete suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz for several days has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries [12][13] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to one-third of their total production capacity and about 6% of global supply. Although Trump said the war is basically over, Iran has stated that it controls the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and has fired on some merchant ships. The US Energy Secretary said it is "highly likely" to provide escort for ships in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month [13] - The IEA has announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the delivery speed is slow. The US Treasury Department has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian maritime oil. These measures have alleviated short-term supply pressure, but are still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of crude oil price spikes remains, and the frequent news of the Middle East situation has a significant impact on crude oil prices [13] Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% last week, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons [14] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the开工率 of most asphalt downstream industries increased. The national asphalt shipments increased by 12.67% to 176,100 tons, but are still at a low level. The asphalt plant inventory rate remained unchanged, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate is at the lowest level in recent years [14] - The price of asphalt in Shandong has been adjusted, and the basis has dropped to a relatively low level. The import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is expected to decrease significantly compared to before the US intervention, and the supply of Middle Eastern raw materials will be affected by the US-Israel attack on Iran. The market is concerned about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [14] - Dongming Petrochemical has resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 has increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand has gradually recovered. The supply and demand of asphalt have both increased, and the cost support is significant. The market is focused on the tense situation in the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation. The expected production cuts of refineries have increased. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the strong performance of crude oil prices in the near future, with large fluctuations [15] PP - As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream's acceptance of high-priced raw materials is not high, and the demand recovery is slow. However, the开工率 of the main downstream plastic products of PP continued to increase by 2.88 percentage points to 40.54% [16] - On March 16, some parking devices such as the first-phase second-line of Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 increased to about 77.5%, which is at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade PP decreased to about 23.5%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [16] - On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz. The number of parking devices has increased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand has been released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP films has increased [16] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of PP has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on Middle Eastern imports, its upstream depends on Middle Eastern liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The PP price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [16] Plastic - On March 16, there was little change in the parking devices, and the plastic开工率 remained at about 87.5%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PE increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production, but has not yet returned to the pre-holiday level. The overall downstream开工率 of PE shows seasonal changes [17][18] - After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz [18] - In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA was put into production in January 2026. There are no plans to put new production capacity into operation in the first quarter. The plastic开工率 has decreased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream factories have increased their resumption of work, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The prices of agricultural films in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [18] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of plastic has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Iranian PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production. The imports from the entire Middle East region account for about 20% of domestic production. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the procurement has become more cautious. The spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The plastic price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [18] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region has increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, and the PVC开工率 has increased, but is still at a neutral to high level in recent years. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the average downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 3.49 percentage points to 39.33%, which is 3.13 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production [19] - In terms of exports, due to the increase in Asian market prices, export inquiries have improved. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and continued to increase last week, and is still at a relatively high level. The inventory pressure is still large. From January to February 2026, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year-on-year decline in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas is still large. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing transactions have increased month-on-month, but are still at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The improvement of the real estate market still takes time [19] - The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the social inventory continues to increase. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has stated that it will focus on key links such as the research and development of mercury-free catalysts to accelerate the mercury-free transformation of the polyvinyl chloride industry. The supply of upstream raw materials for PVC is tight, and the prices of ethylene and calcium carbide continue to rise. There is an expectation of load reduction in the domestic and international PVC markets. This week, ethylene-based devices such as Xinpu Chemical and Zhejiang Jiahua will reduce their operating loads. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. Under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PVC price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [19][20] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed lower but closed higher on the day. Fundamentally, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the domestic mine开工率 has reached 87.16%, a month-on-month increase of 4.84%. The production and开工率 are both at a relatively high level year-on-year. However, due to the impact of overseas military conflicts, the price of coking coal has increased, leading to an increase in the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The coking coal inventory has decreased significantly this period, a month-on-month decrease of 85,800 tons. The downstream coking enterprises and steel mills have replenished their inventories, a month-on-month increase of 199,800 tons and 19,900 tons respectively. However, the coke production has not increased significantly, and the steel mills' profitability has recovered, with the开工 rate increasing by 0.63%, but the start-up speed is slower than in previous years [21] - Although the fundamentals of coking coal have no upward driving force, it is still in a strong consolidation state recently due to the stimulation of inflation expectations and the expectation of energy shortage. If the Middle East situation shows no sign of stopping in the short term, the energy and chemical industry will remain strong. Otherwise, there is a risk of a rapid decline [21] Urea - The market sentiment was high last week, and the rise of futures and international urea has driven the enthusiasm of spot trading. Most regions remained stable this weekend. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [22] - Fundamentally, the state reserve of urea has been released, and the daily production has continuously reached new highs. At present, the gas-based devices have basically completed their resumption of production, and there are sporadic shutdown plans for upstream factories. The resumption and shutdown are parallel, with basically no major changes. The raw material prices of compound fertilizers have all increased to varying degrees this week, and the terminal sales are smooth. The cost and demand have jointly driven the price of compound fertilizer products to rise. Although the开工 rate is gradually increasing, the finished product inventory is still decreasing. Although the topdressing of wheat during the greening period is basically over, subsequent products such as spring corn still require a large amount of high-nitrogen compound fertilizers. Although the increase in raw material prices has squeezed the factory profits, the high demand still corresponds to the high supply [22] - After the sharp increase, the downstream buys when the price rises and does not buy when the price falls, and the terminal sales are smooth. The upstream factory inventory has continued to decrease. Although the current daily production is higher than last year, the inventory has not shown a large increase due to the digestion of downstream demand and the drive of exports. Instead, it shows a looser situation than last year, with no obvious inventory pressure, which is an important reason to support the strong market. Overall, due to the combination of farming and the Middle East situation, urea shows a slight over-increase. Ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the spring plowing season is still the main tone of the market. The opportunity for a significant increase in the future depends on the export quota after the end of the spring plowing season. It is expected to stabilize in the short term [22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend outlooks and fundamental analysis for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices and trends of many commodities. For example, the conflict in the Middle East has led to concerns about inflation, affecting the prices of gold, oil, and other commodities. Additionally, factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, and inventory levels also play important roles in determining the price trends of different commodities [5][8][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out, and the price is affected by factors such as inflation concerns and changes in the US dollar index. The trend strength is 1 [5]. - **Silver**: In a volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 1 [2]. - **Platinum**: Continues to be weak, with a trend strength of 0 [25]. - **Palladium**: High - frequency data is sluggish, and it is in a low - level volatile state, with a trend strength of - 1 [25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The narrowing of the spot discount restricts the price decline. The trend strength is 0 [8]. - **Zinc**: In a range - bound pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [11]. - **Lead**: The reduction of overseas inventory restricts the price decline, with a trend strength of 0 [15]. - **Tin**: In a volatile adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: A slight correction, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Alumina**: In a sideways volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Nickel**: The reality of the Indonesian ore end is catching up, and beware of speculative attributes in March, with a trend strength of 0 [30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The contradiction at the ore end increases marginally, and the cost support center moves up, with a trend strength of 0 [30]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Although not specifically mentioned in detail, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to concerns about supply, pushing up oil prices [5][8]. - **Fuel Oil**: Maintains a retracement trend and short - term high - volatility, with a trend strength of - 1 [133]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In a weak adjustment, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels continues to decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [133]. - **Natural Gas**: Not specifically analyzed in detail, but geopolitical factors may affect its supply and price [91]. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: In a wide - range volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [58]. - **Coke**: A first - round price cut has begun, and it is in a wide - range volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [57]. - **Steam Coal**: Market sentiment is weakening, and the short - term price fluctuates within a narrow range, with a trend strength of - 1 [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The spill - over of sentiment finally arrives, showing a short - term strong performance, with a trend strength of 1 [158]. - **Soybean Oil**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, it may break through upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [158]. - **Soybean Meal**: Rebounds and fluctuates, and pay attention to the situation in the Middle East, with a trend strength of 0 [165]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable and slightly strong, and the futures price fluctuates in adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [165]. - **Corn**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 0 [168]. - **Sugar**: In a range - bound arrangement, with a trend strength of 0 [172]. - **Cotton**: Waiting for new drivers, with a trend strength of 1 [176]. - **Eggs**: Maintains a volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [180]. - **Hogs**: The inventory pressure is difficult to solve, and the weakness continues, with a trend strength of - 1 [183]. - **Peanuts**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [188]. Chemical Products - **P - Xylene (PX)**: In a high - level volatile market, it is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA. The trend strength is 1 [68]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: In a high - level volatile market, with a trend strength of 1 [68]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: In a high - level volatile market, with a trend strength of 1 [68]. - **Rubber**: Fluctuates weakly, with a trend strength of - 1 [78]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price center moves up, with a trend strength of 1 [81]. - **Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)**: The expectation of cracking supply contraction continues, and pay short - term high attention to geopolitical factors, with a trend strength of 2 [85]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The C3 raw material remains strong, and the reduction of PDH devices continues, with a trend strength of 2 [85]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by strong export expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [90]. - **Paper Pulp**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [95]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend strength of 0 [102]. - **Methanol**: In a high - level volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [105]. - **Urea**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [111]. - **Styrene**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [115]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little, with a trend strength of 0 [117]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong, with a trend strength of 0 [122]. - **Propylene**: The cost end is affected by geopolitical factors, and the fundamentals remain tight, with a trend strength of 1 [122]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: In a range - bound pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [130]. Shipping Index - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to geopolitical sentiment disturbances, with a trend strength of 0 [135]. Fibers - **Short - Fiber**: Geopolitical risks are not eliminated, and it is short - term strong, with a trend strength of 1 [148]. - **Bottle - Grade Chip**: Geopolitical risks are not eliminated, and it is short - term strong, with a trend strength of 1 [148]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a trend strength of 0 [150]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [155].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides investment outlooks and trend intensities for various commodities, taking into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand dynamics, and cost changes. For example, geopolitical conflicts have a significant impact on commodities like gold, oil - related products, and some chemical products, while supply - demand fundamentals drive the trends of agricultural products and metals [7][10][148]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflict has broken out. The price of Comex gold 2602 rose 1.02% to 5151.60, and London gold spot rose 0.63% to 5120.54. The trend intensity is 1 [3][7]. - **Silver**: In a shock pattern. The price of Comex silver 2602 rose 1.78% to 83.765, and London silver spot rose 1.86% to 83.540. The trend intensity is 1 [3][7]. - **Platinum**: The sentiment is relatively pessimistic. The trend intensity is 0 [3][27]. - **Palladium**: Overall weak. The trend intensity is 0 [3][27]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory increase restricts price recovery. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract fell 0.43% to 101,660. The trend intensity is 0 [3][10]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating strongly. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24480, up 0.45%. The trend intensity is 1 [3][13]. - **Lead**: Inventory is stable, and the price oscillates. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16840, with no change. The trend intensity is 0 [3][17]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the stabilization of risk appetite. The Shanghai tin main contract fell 5.17% to 401,130. The trend intensity is 1 [3][20]. - **Aluminum**: Middle - East aluminum plants are reducing production, and supply concerns are intensifying. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24795, up 890. The trend intensity is 1 [3][24]. - **Alumina**: Sell on rebounds. The trend intensity is - 1 [3][24]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 1 [3][24]. - **Nickel**: The reality of the Indonesian ore end is catching up. Be vigilant about speculative attributes in March. The trend intensity is 0 [3][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The contradiction at the ore end is increasing marginally, and the cost support center is moving up. The trend intensity is 0 [3][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related (implied)**: Geopolitical conflicts have a significant impact on the energy market, affecting the prices of related products such as fuel oil and LPG [14][120]. - **Fuel Oil**: The night session had a slight pullback, and price fluctuations continued to widen. The trend intensity is 1 [3][131]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weakened in the short - term, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the outer market fell again. The trend intensity is 1 [3][131]. - **LPG**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong. The trend intensity is 1 [3][120]. - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances at the cost end, and the fundamentals remain tight. The trend intensity is 1 [3][120]. - **Methanol**: High - level shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][103]. - **Urea**: Entered a shock pattern in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0 [3][110]. - **PTA**: High - level shock. The trend intensity is 1 [3][71]. - **MEG**: High - level shock. The trend intensity is 1 [3][71]. - **PX**: High - level shock market, go long PX and short PTA. The trend intensity is 1 [3][71]. - **Rubber**: Oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [3][79]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The center moves up. The trend intensity is 1 [3][82]. - **LLDPE**: The expectation of cracking supply contraction is increasing. Pay attention to geopolitical factors in the short - term. The trend intensity is 1 [3][86]. - **PP**: C3 raw materials remain strong, and the reduction of PDH devices continues. The trend intensity is 2 [3][86]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [3][90]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [3][95]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend intensity is 0 [3][100]. - **PVC**: Range shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][128]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental contradiction is limited. Pay attention to the impact of oil prices. The trend intensity is 0 [3][161]. - **Soybean Oil**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans. Pay attention to the previous high pressure. The trend intensity is 0 [3][161]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating. Pay attention to market sentiment fluctuations. The trend intensity is 0 [3][167]. - **Soybean**: Oscillating. Pay attention to the policy sentiment of the Two Sessions. The trend intensity is 0 [3][167]. - **Corn**: Oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [3][170]. - **Sugar**: Range consolidation. The trend intensity is 0 [3][174]. - **Cotton**: Waiting for new drivers. The trend intensity is 1 [3][178]. - **Eggs**: Maintaining a shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][182]. - **Hogs**: The inventory pressure is difficult to solve, and the weakness continues. The trend intensity is - 2 [3][185]. - **Peanuts**: Oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [3][190]. Others - **Iron Ore**: Waiting for steel mills to resume production, and the ore price rebounds from a low level. The trend intensity is 1 [3][48]. - **Rebar**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [3][52]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [3][52]. - **Silicon Iron**: Wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][56]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][56]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts has started, and wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][59]. - **Coking Coal**: Wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][59]. - **Steam Coal**: There is insufficient support for price increases, and short - term prices fluctuate in a narrow range. The trend intensity is 0 [3][64]. - **Log**: The game between expectation and reality, with a slight shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][67]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Volatility has declined, mainly oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [3][133]. - **Short - Fiber**: Geopolitical factors raise costs, and it is strong in the short - term. The trend intensity is 1 [3][148]. - **Bottle Chip**: Geopolitical factors raise costs, and it is strong in the short - term. The trend intensity is 1 [3][148]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Wait - and - see. The trend intensity is 0 [3][151]. - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [3][156].

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: March 2, 2026 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, etc. 1. Market Performance 1.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on March 2, most domestic futures main contracts were up. Contracts such as container shipping to Europe, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), SC crude oil, etc. hit the daily limit. Shanghai silver rose over 9%, and some other contracts like p-xylene (PX), PTA, and synthetic rubber rose over 6%. In terms of declines, polysilicon fell over 2% and live pigs fell nearly 2% [7]. - Among stock index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 0.07%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.06%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) fell 0.07%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 1.15%. Among treasury bond futures, the main contracts of 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) all rose [8]. 1.2 Fund Flows - As of 15:27 on March 2, funds flowed into contracts such as Shanghai gold 2604 (4.837 billion yuan), CSI 2603 (1.563 billion yuan), and Shanghai silver 2604 (1.539 billion yuan). Funds flowed out of contracts such as Shanghai tin 2604 (871 million yuan), lithium carbonate 2605 (626 million yuan), and cotton 2605 (563 million yuan) [8]. 2. Market Analysis of Specific Varieties 2.1 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, rising during the day. Affected by the Iran-US conflict, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.69 tons MoM (3.13%), and is expected to increase by 5.28 tons in March. The demand for scrap copper is expected to increase, and the supply gap may be filled by overseas imports. The downstream is resistant to high copper prices, and the copper product sector is under pressure. Overall, the copper market is in a state of oversupply. In the short term, copper prices may be under pressure and fluctuate, and are expected to be strong in the long term [10][11]. 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, falling during the day. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 172,500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade is 169,000 yuan/ton. Due to seasonal and holiday factors, the supply of lithium carbonate raw materials decreased in February. The downstream battery production is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory has decreased. The new 15% tariff and the "rush to export" expectation support the price. However, the short-term impact of geopolitical conflicts is limited, and the price may fluctuate [12]. 2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The EIA data shows a large increase in US crude oil inventory. Affected by the Iran-US conflict, Iran's oil production and exports are affected, and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate strongly in the near term, and the situation in the Middle East will have a great impact on the price [13][14]. 2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt supply is weak, with the operating rate at a low level. In March, the domestic asphalt production is expected to increase by 13.0% MoM. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, but the overall supply and demand are still weak. The price is expected to follow the rise of crude oil prices, and the arbitrage strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [15][17]. 2.5 PP - As of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased seasonally. The PP enterprise operating rate is at a neutral-low level, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The rise in crude oil prices has a significant impact on PP. It is expected that PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream production [18]. 2.6 Plastic - The plastic operating rate is at a neutral-high level, and the downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected that the plastic price will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream production [19][20]. 2.7 PVC - The PVC operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate is gradually recovering. The export is expected to decline, and the social inventory is still high. The PVC price is under pressure in the short term, but is expected to be strong in the long term due to policy and maintenance expectations [21]. 2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, rebounding slightly during the day. The supply of imported coal is gradually recovering, and the domestic mine production is increasing. The inventory of coking coal mines has increased, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and policy expectations [23]. 2.9 Urea - Urea opened high and closed low, falling during the day. The spot price has risen. The supply is high, the inventory is low, and the demand is expected to be high. It is expected that urea will fluctuate strongly in March, and attention should be paid to the impact of national reserve release on the price [24][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Global macro格局受四大重磅事件冲击，美以伊军事冲突成市场核心即时变量，需关注冲突烈度及对市场的影响，人民币汇率受央行政策和地缘冲突影响，短期或双向波动，长期升值趋势取决于国内经济和出口情况 [2][3] - 股指受两会和地缘政治局势影响，预计以短期情绪冲击为主，底部支撑强；国债存在上涨契机，但需关注市场环境；集运欧线受地缘冲突和船司挺价影响，预计震荡偏强 [6][7][9] - 碳酸锂短期预计在15 - 20万元/吨区间宽幅震荡，中长期价值支撑稳固；工业硅和多晶硅短期处于产能周期底部，需等待供需格局改善 [11][12][13] - 铝产业链受美伊冲突影响，铝价或震荡偏强，氧化铝震荡整理，铸造铝合金震荡偏强；铜价受库存和下游复工影响，上涨面临压力；锌价预计偏强震荡；镍不锈钢震荡偏强；锡价高位震荡；铅价震荡调整 [15][16][18] - 油料市场，二季度后大豆供应压力回归，菜粕或表现弱势；油脂市场受地缘冲突支撑，可寻找逢低看多机会 [26][27][28] - 燃料油期价有望强势冲高，沥青跟随成本上涨；铂金和钯金中长期牛市基础仍在，黄金和白银战略性看多 [30][32][34] - 纸浆和胶版纸期货可区间交易，纯苯或有低多机会；苯乙烯和LPG受地缘影响，成本支撑增强；甲醇受地缘冲突影响大；聚烯烃短期受情绪和成本驱动，PP基本面支撑强于PE [37][38][40] - 橡胶震荡回调，天胶中长期偏多，顺丁橡胶区间震荡；尿素受美伊战争影响，价格或上涨；玻璃纯碱基本面空间有限；丙烯受成本推动上涨 [50][51][54] - 螺纹和热卷受政策预期和高库存影响，短期内政策支撑盘面，但基本面偏弱；铁矿石供应压制价格，需求预期悲观；焦煤焦炭关注终端需求验证；硅铁和硅锰受消息面驱动上涨，但硅锰受高库存压制 [57][58][60] - 生猪现货持续下跌，可选择卖涨期权；棉花供需偏紧，建议回调布局多单；白糖基本面偏空，关注盘面能否站稳5300；鸡蛋短期窄幅震荡、稳中偏强；苹果关注节后消费和交割逻辑；红枣供需格局偏松，价格承压；原木可观望或低多 [65][66][76] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Focus on the Middle East situation, including the Iran - US - Israel conflict, the impact on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Chinese government's meeting on the "15th Five - Year Plan" [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to prevent one - sided appreciation expectations. Short - term exchange rate may show two - way fluctuations, and long - term appreciation depends on domestic economic recovery and export strength. Geopolitical conflicts may support the US dollar index [2][3] - **Stock Index**: Affected by the two sessions and geopolitical situation, short - term emotional shocks are expected, with strong bottom support [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: There is an opportunity for an increase, but the market environment needs to be monitored. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and avoid chasing high prices in the short term [6][7][8] - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Geopolitical conflicts and shipping companies' price - holding behavior strengthen short - term support, but weak cargo volume limits the upside. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [9][10] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely between 150,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton. Long - term value is supported by downstream demand, but risks such as price increases affecting terminal economy need to be noted [11][12] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Currently at the bottom of the production cycle, waiting for supply - demand pattern improvement. Photovoltaic has long - term development potential [12][13][14] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The US - Iran conflict may cause short - term price fluctuations in electrolytic aluminum. It is recommended to buy call options for aluminum and sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for alumina. Cast aluminum alloy may follow the trend of aluminum [15][16][17] - **Copper**: Affected by high inventory and slow downstream resumption, price increase is restricted. It is advisable to use calendar spread strategies or buy out - of - the - money call options [18][20] - **Zinc**: Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and the turning point needs to be observed [22] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The trend is slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to US tariff disturbances and Indonesian supply [22][23] - **Tin**: It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the impact of risk aversion on the market needs to be noted [23][24] - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and interval operations are recommended [25] Oils and Fats, and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The supply pressure of soybeans will return in the second quarter, and rapeseed meal may be weak [26] - **Oils and Fats**: Supported by geopolitical conflicts, there are opportunities to go long at low prices [26][27][28] Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Driven by supply shock, cost, and logistics, the futures price is expected to rise strongly [30] - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost of crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are dominant [31] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The risk - aversion sentiment is fermented due to the Middle East geopolitical risk. The long - term bull market foundation remains, but position control is needed [32][33] - **Gold and Silver**: The risk - aversion allocation value is prominent. It is recommended to go long strategically and pay attention to economic data and policy expectations [34][35] Chemicals - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: Pulp futures are bearish due to inventory accumulation and weak cost support. Offset paper futures are affected by multiple factors and are in a range - bound state [37][38] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The cost support is enhanced due to the Middle East conflict, and they are likely to follow the rise of crude oil [38][39] - **LPG**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the external market is strong and the internal market is weak. The focus is on the situation in the Middle East [39][40][41] - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has a significant impact, and the supply and price are likely to be affected [41][42] - **Plastics and PP**: The cost support is strengthened by the Middle East conflict. PE is supply - strong and demand - weak in the short term, while PP has supply reduction expectations and stronger fundamental support [44][45] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate, and synthetic rubber is expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply, demand, and inventory [50][74] - **Urea**: Affected by the US - Iran war, international and domestic prices may rise [51][52] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The fundamental space is limited, and price fluctuations are restricted [53][54] - **Propylene**: Driven by cost, the price is expected to rise, but the downstream acceptance needs to be observed [54][55] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by policy expectations and high inventory, the short - term policy supports the market, but the fundamental weakness limits the upside [57] - **Iron Ore**: The supply suppresses the price, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. It is recommended to be bearish but not to short [58][59][60] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Enter the terminal demand verification period, and the real data is important. The price may face downward pressure if the supply recovers more than expected and the macro - sentiment weakens [60][61] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Driven by market rumors, silicon iron has a better fundamental situation, while silicon manganese is restricted by high inventory [61][62][63] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The spot price continues to decline, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [65] - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to foreign trade policies and export progress [66][67][68] - **Sugar**: The fundamental situation is bearish, and attention should be paid to whether the price can stand above 5300 [68][69] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly and be slightly stronger in the short term, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [69][70] - **Apples**: Pay attention to post - festival consumption and the delivery logic. The price may decline if the demand is weak [76][77] - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure, likely to maintain low - level fluctuations [77][78] - **Logs**: The spot price has support, but the demand has not recovered significantly. Geopolitical factors may affect supply and cost. It is advisable to wait and see or go long at low prices [79]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance with significant gains in certain metals while others experience declines, indicating volatility in commodity prices [3][8]. Group 1: Price Movements - Tin (沪锡) futures increased by over 8% [3][8]. - Platinum (铂) futures rose by more than 5% [3][8]. - Silicon iron (硅铁) futures saw an increase of over 3% [3][8]. - Palladium (钯) and manganese silicon (锰硅) futures both increased by more than 2% [3][8]. Group 2: Declines in Prices - Aluminum oxide (氧化铝) futures decreased by over 3% [3][8]. - Propylene (丙烯), methanol (甲醇), plastics, and PVC all fell by more than 2% [3][8].