投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-11-26 俄乌和谈进展主导油价，聚烯烃期价创 近年新低 国际原油期货在周二夜盘大幅下滑，彭博报道称乌克兰已同意修订后 的和平协议条款，尽管仍有若干细节问题待敲定。Brent一度下跌2.4%， 随后收复部分失地。美乌官员已在日内瓦展开谈判，美俄代表赴阿布扎比 举行会谈。与此同时，俄罗斯原油海运量在截至11月23日的四周内连续第 五周下滑，10月中旬被制裁以来俄罗斯原油日发货量下滑了53万桶。原油 强现实弱预期的局面延续，关键变量就在于俄乌和谈进展。投资者暂时以 震荡思路对待。 板块逻辑： 原油趋弱，油化工成本下移，其中PP和PE双双创出多年低点。聚烯烃 2025年产能增速均超10%，且检修力度不足，聚烯烃产量持续位于五年同 期最高，刚刚过去的10月两个品种月度产量仍创出了历史纪录新高。PP和 PE超过50%的生产都来自炼厂端，炼油和芳烃的利润尚可，炼厂停车检修 聚烯烃的概率就低。当前PE虽然价格连连下跌，但进口窗口多处于开启及 待开启状态，凸显了PE全球格局的弱势。 原油：地缘溢价摇摆，供应压力延续 沥青：原料供应扰动叠 ...

丙烯期货主力合约日内5日均线上方震荡整理。目前市场缺乏消息面指引，企业报盘延续平稳为主,个别价格小 幅上探。下游工厂按需跟进,偏高交投有所放量,带动实单重心小涨。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内继续下行收跌。聚乙烯检修减少，远洋及近洋船货到港量增加，整体供应压力 增加。需求端棚膜开工高位持续回落过程，包装膜后续订单跟进缓慢，且多数工厂前期已有备货，下跌行情 下,心态多数偏空,采购积极性走弱。聚丙烯供应端暂无新增产能冲击,但存量检修装置预计减少,装置检修 力度减弱,供应预计小幅增加。需求端短期受原料持续偏弱影响,采购积极性受限。 【纯苯-苯乙烯】 日内统苯价格延续跌势,国内持续累库为现实压力,华东现货阴跌,山东成交不及上日。美韩价差持续走扩, 市场关注亚洲纯苯流出可能,但美国汽油裂差转弱,且对美出口有运费和关税门槛,持续性或不足。国内到塔 预期偏高,下游需求整体下降,延续反弹偏空思路,可同时考虑期权配置避免超预期上涨。 苯乙烯期货主力合约目内窄幅波动。苯乙烯工厂产出仍有小幅减量预期,下游需求维持良好状态,苯乙烯供需 紧平衡持续，总库存持续回落，对苯乙烯价格形成一定支撑。 | | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | ...

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - PTA: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, indicating a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Methanol: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - PVC: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally under pressure, with many products facing issues such as weak demand, high inventory, and cost - profit imbalances. Different products have different trends and investment strategies, mainly including anti - arbitrage operations and attention to load changes in each link of the industrial chain [2][3][5] Grouped by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures weakened slightly during the day. International oil price decline dampened market sentiment, and demand was hard to boost significantly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures consolidated weakly. For polyethylene, trading volume needed to be released; for polypropylene, the supply - side pressure was expected to increase [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of benzene futures fluctuated narrowly, and the market was in short - term consolidation with medium - term negative factors. Attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm [3] - Styrene futures consolidated narrowly. The cost support was insufficient, and the price continued to be weak [3] Polyester - PX supply increased, PTA load decreased, and polyester load increased slightly. PTA might accumulate inventory in the future, and anti - arbitrage was the main strategy [5] - Ethylene glycol supply was expected to increase, with a continued inventory accumulation expectation, and anti - arbitrage was the main strategy [5] - Short fiber had a good spot pattern, but the profit was slightly squeezed. Its price would fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip demand weakened, and the cost was the main driver [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. High port inventory and weak demand suppressed the market, and the market was expected to be weak [6] - Urea futures rose significantly. The market was boosted by export news, but caution was needed when chasing up [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continued to accumulate inventory and ran at a low level due to high supply and weak demand [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated at a low level. The downstream demand was general, and the supply was high [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash rose slightly. The supply was high, and the inventory was at a high level. It was expected to be hard to decline in the short term [8] - Glass ran weakly. Cost increase limited the decline space, and attention should be paid to the end - of - year rush - to - work [8]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry chain in China is increasingly relying on futures markets for risk management, with the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) playing a crucial role in providing various futures products to help companies navigate price volatility and enhance operational stability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Development of Futures Products - The annual production capacity of PTA in China has increased from approximately 49 million tons in 2020 to over 86 million tons in 2024, with net exports rising from 230,000 tons to 440,000 tons during the same period [2]. - ZCE has launched multiple futures products, including PTA, short fibers, PX, and propylene, creating a comprehensive futures product system that covers the polyester industry chain [2][3]. - The introduction of propylene futures and options has further enriched the futures product offerings, enhancing the risk management tools available to industry players [3]. Group 2: Internationalization and Pricing Influence - ZCE has deepened its international engagement by allowing qualified foreign institutional investors to participate in eight polyester-related futures products, making PTA futures a significant pricing reference in international trade [4][5]. - As of the end of 2024, over 700 foreign traders from more than 30 countries and regions have opened accounts on ZCE, indicating a growing international interest in Chinese futures markets [4][6]. - The establishment of an export-oriented delivery system has reduced participation costs for foreign enterprises, facilitating smoother international trade and enhancing the global influence of Chinese pricing [5][6]. Group 3: Support for the Real Economy - ZCE continues to optimize market services by enhancing the variety of derivative tools available, allowing companies to better manage risks and meet diverse needs [8]. - The introduction of standardized futures contracts provides continuous and authoritative price signals, reducing information gaps in traditional pricing models [9]. - Companies like WanKai New Materials have successfully utilized futures tools to lock in processing profits and manage costs, demonstrating the effectiveness of these instruments in stabilizing operations and expanding market reach [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Information not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The chemical market shows a mixed performance with different products facing various supply - demand and price trends. Some products like PVC, methanol are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand, while others like urea have some positive factors but still face supply - demand imbalances [2][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined as supply was overall loose, production enterprise shipments weakened, and downstream demand and purchasing enthusiasm decreased [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also fell. For polyethylene, cost support declined, supply was stable, and downstream demand was average. For polypropylene, cost support weakened, trade - sellers actively sold, and downstream new orders were limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures had prices fluctuating around 5400 yuan/ton, with inventory rising and supply increasing. Although the Sino - US tariff situation eased, it had limited impact on the market [3] - Styrene futures declined. New production devices were operating normally, and the future market outlook was not optimistic [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated widely. PX and PTA supply increased, with PTA facing inventory accumulation pressure. The demand was expected to weaken in the medium - term [4] - Ethylene glycol had a slight decline in weekly production, but supply was expected to increase. It was expected to continue accumulating inventory, and the strategy was to go short the spread [4] - Short - fiber had no new investment pressure and followed raw material price fluctuations. It was expected to accumulate inventory in mid - to late November [4] - Bottle - chip demand decreased with the cooling weather, and the processing margin was under pressure. It was mainly driven by cost [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fell continuously and stabilized in the afternoon. High port inventory, high import supply, and weak downstream demand suppressed the market, and the inventory inflection point was yet to appear [5] - Urea futures oscillated strongly. Daily production increased, and agricultural demand improved slightly. However, the domestic supply - demand imbalance continued, and the market was expected to oscillate within a range [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC was operating at a low level. Supply was expected to increase, demand was declining, and cost support was weak [6] - Caustic soda continued to decline. Inventory was accumulating, and downstream demand was weak [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was oscillating. Supply increased, and demand from float glass decreased, so it was under pressure at a high level [7] - Glass futures declined from a high level. Production lines were shut down, and inventory was expected to decrease. Cost increased, and the decline space was limited [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include sufficient supply but weak demand in the main downstream PP and other weak downstream sectors, lacking upward momentum. Meanwhile, the cost of PDH has rapidly increased due to the rebound of propylene in the external market, providing short - term support, but the November CP price is expected to decline compared to October [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factors are the rebound of external propylene prices providing cost support, good Sino - US talks, and government measures to address "involution - style" competition. The negative factors are the overall loose supply of propylene and the weak downstream PP market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of propylene is predicted to be between 6000 - 6400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1262 and a 3 - year historical percentage of 0.6969 [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short propylene futures (PL2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 6300 - 6400 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (PL2601C6400) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 to reduce costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can long propylene futures (PL2601) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is 5800 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (PL2601P5900) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 to reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.2 Industry Data Summary - **Upstream Raw Material Prices**: On October 29, 2025, Brent crude was at 64.3 dollars/barrel, WTI at 60.36 dollars/barrel. There were various price changes in other upstream raw materials such as MOPJ, NAP, and propane [9]. - **Mid - stream Propylene Prices**: The price of FOB South Korea was 730 dollars/ton, CFR China was 745 dollars/ton. Domestic propylene prices in different regions also had different degrees of change, with the cheapest delivery product at 5985 yuan/ton [9]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of products like polypropylene powder, polypropylene granules, and other downstream products also had certain fluctuations. For example, polypropylene powder was 6470 yuan/ton on October 29, 2025 [9]. - **Profits**: Profits in the mid - upstream and downstream sectors showed different trends. For example, the main refinery profit was 512.62 yuan/ton, and the MTO monomer profit was - 225.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Price Spreads**: There were various price spreads, such as the spread between MOPJ and propylene, PP powder and propylene, etc. For example, the MOPJ - propylene spread was 1937.21 yuan/ton on October 29, 2025 [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - Overall, the chemical futures market shows a mixed performance with various factors influencing different sectors. Some sectors face supply - related pressures, while others are affected by demand changes and cost factors [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures' main contracts declined. Supply pressure is hard to ease due to expected increases in supply from sources like Haiwei and Yulong. The anticipated increase in propylene volume may suppress spot prices [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts also fell. For polyethylene, domestic supply is increasing while demand has limited impact on price. For polypropylene, supply is abundant and downstream demand only provides limited support [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of unified benzene futures decreased. Short - term sentiment is bearish due to weakening oil prices, and high imports are a mid - term pressure. Attention should be paid to port inventory accumulation [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts declined. High inventory and stable downstream demand with increasing finished - product inventory put long - term pressure on prices [3] Polyester - PX and PTA are relatively strong. There is a short - term positive sentiment, but mid - term PTA may face inventory accumulation without effective measures [4] - Ethylene glycol production is increasing. There is short - term inventory reduction, but mid - term accumulation is expected. It is advisable to short at high prices [4] - Short fiber has a good spot market currently, but may face inventory accumulation again. Bottle chip demand is weakening, and over - capacity is a long - term pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures declined. Port inventory is under pressure and demand is weak, with the market likely to remain in low - level oscillation [5] - Urea prices fell. Supply - demand imbalance persists, but there may be a phased rebound after prices reach a low point [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuated narrowly. Supply may increase, demand is stable, and exports are under pressure. It may operate in a bottom - range [6] - Caustic soda prices weakened. Supply is expected to rise, and downstream demand is average. Futures prices are likely to remain low [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillated. Cost is rising, supply is slightly increasing, and demand is stable. It is advisable to be cautious when shorting near the cost [7] - Glass prices rose. There are signs of improvement in the Shahe spot market, but downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. Downward movement may be limited [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the weather getting colder, the rigid demand for propane increases, leading to a price recovery. The supply pressure of propylene has been alleviated to some extent, but it is expected to rise slightly at the end of October. The cost support for propylene has strengthened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. - The trading strategies are as follows: for single - sided trading, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell put options [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The rigid demand for propane for combustion increases with the cold weather, and its price recovers. In mid - October, Fushun Petrochemical restarted, while several other plants stopped production, alleviating supply pressure. However, some plants like Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Kenli Chemical are expected to restart at the end of October, and the supply pressure of propylene is expected to rise but with limited amplitude. The sanctions on Russian oil companies by the US have led to an oil price rebound, strengthening the cost support for propylene [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - sided trading is expected to be short - term bullish; arbitrage should be on the sidelines; sell put options [7]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking - **Propylene Price Movement**: Affected by cost, propylene rebounded from a low level. As of Friday night, the propylene futures PL2601 closed at 6155 (+30/+0.49%). The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong spot market was 6000 - 6050 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The Far East propylene price was down 20 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CFR China price was 745 - 755 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Cost - side Situation**: The US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to a four - day consecutive rebound in oil prices, with Brent crude hitting 66 US dollars and a cumulative increase of over 5%. Saudi Aramco's November CP for propane is expected to be lower than that in October, at 455 US dollars/ton. However, with the increasing rigid demand for propane due to cold weather, the downward space is expected to be limited [15]. - **Supply Situation**: As of Thursday, the overall domestic propylene operating load was 77.52%, down 0.71% week - on - week. Some plants restarted or stopped production in October, and several plants are expected to restart in October and November, so the market supply pressure still exists [23]. - **Import and Export Situation**: Propylene imports mainly flow to the Yangtze River Delta, followed by Fujian and Shanghai. After April, due to Sino - US tariffs, some downstream PDH plants were unstable, and downstream factories replenished low - priced foreign goods. The import volume increased significantly from May to July. South Korea is the largest source of China's propylene imports, accounting for 67.67%. The impact of tariffs on propylene trade is almost negligible [26]. - **Downstream Product Situation**: Most propylene downstream product prices decreased this week, especially for products like propylene oxide, n - butanol, and acrylic acid. The cost pressure on downstream products increased, and their acceptance of propylene prices gradually declined. Most downstream products of propylene have poor profits, remaining below the break - even line. Only octanol is currently profitable, and acrylic acid and butanol have periodic profitability [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, plastic, PX, PTA, and benzene ethylene are rated ★☆★, indicating a moderately bullish trend [1]. - PVC, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle chips are rated ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend [1]. - Urea, methanol, and glass are rated ☆☆☆, meaning a neutral trend with low operability [1]. - Caustic soda and soda ash are rated ☆☆☆, also indicating a neutral state [1]. Core Views - In the chemical market, different chemical products show various trends. Some are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and downstream demand, with short - term and medium - term outlooks varying [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures continued to rise. Propylene prices remained stable at a low level, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market [2]. - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures oscillated upwards. For polyethylene, the macro - environment improved, but downstream resistance to price increases led to slower trading. For polypropylene, the trading sentiment improved, but downstream demand had no obvious improvement [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Boosted by oil prices, the pure benzene futures price continued to rebound, and the spot price in East China also recovered. In the short term, concerns about supply contraction and oil price rebounds led to increased downstream purchases, while high imports remained a medium - term pressure [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures continued to rise. Driven by oil prices, styrene showed a short - term strong trend, but high inventory suppressed its upward space [3]. Polyester - The sharp rebound in oil prices provided impetus for PX and PTA. The textile market improved, but PTA was expected to face inventory accumulation in the medium term. Ethylene glycol might rebound in the short term but had medium - term inventory pressure. Short - fiber was expected to continue a bullish trend, while bottle chips faced weakening demand [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol rose slightly. The port inventory was high, and it might oscillate in the short term and tend to be stronger in the medium - to - long - term. The urea futures price continued to rise slightly, with improved supply - demand margins and cost support [6]. Chlor - Alkali - The supply of PVC was expected to increase, with stable domestic demand and good export in September. It might operate in the bottom - range. The supply of caustic soda fluctuated slightly, with inventory decline in non - aluminum downstream, and it might operate at a low - range [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry had a slight inventory reduction, but supply remained high. It was advisable to short at high levels after a rebound. The glass price continued to fall, with inventory accumulation, and its downward range was expected to be limited [8].