| 110. > 国技期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月26日 | | 影丙烯 | 女女女 | 塑料 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PX | ★☆★ | PTA | ☆☆☆ | | | 乙二醇 | なな女 | 短纤 | 女女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 瓶片 | なな女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | 纯碱 | ★☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货主力合约日内 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined [1] - Methanol: Not clearly defined [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as supply disruptions, demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Grouped Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate above the 5 - day average line. Downstream restocking is active, and supply - side news is positive, boosting prices [2] - Polyolefin futures have narrow fluctuations. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow - growing demand, while polypropylene has supply support but slow - recovering demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices oscillate around 6200 yuan/ton. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third quarter and potential pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures are in a consolidation pattern. Cost is weak, and the supply - demand is in a wide - balance state with potential inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PTA is driven by cost and shows a strong trend. Terminal weaving is improving, and PX supply - demand is expected to improve [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rise to 4500 yuan/ton and then fall back. Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [5] - Short - fiber supply - demand is stable and cost - driven. New capacity is limited, and mid - term long - position allocation is considered [5] - Bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, limiting profit margin recovery [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol prices are weak. Import volume is slightly down, but port inventory may reach a high level at the end of the third quarter [6] - Urea prices fall after export news. Supply is loose in the short term, and the market is affected by sentiment and export news [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. Supply is high, demand is poor, and export pressure is increasing [7] - Caustic soda is strong. Non - aluminum seasonal restocking and demand increase support prices, but long - term supply pressure remains [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rise. Supply may decline slightly, but inventory is high, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus [8] - Glass prices rise. Inventory accumulation slows down, and cost increases provide support [8]

Report Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastics: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fibre: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market shows mixed trends. Propylene prices are boosted by improved supply - demand, while polyolefin has different supply - demand situations for polyethylene and polypropylene [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market has different outlooks for different periods. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3 for pure benzene, and benzene - styrene has stable supply and limited downstream boost [3]. - The polyester market has various factors affecting different products. PX has positive valuation, ethylene glycol is multi - factor intertwined, short - fibre has positive demand expectations, and bottle chips face long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. - The coal - chemical market has different performances for methanol and urea. Methanol has weak reality but strong expectation, and urea is affected by market sentiment and export news [6]. - The chlor - alkali market shows different trends for PVC and caustic soda. PVC is expected to be weak, and caustic soda is strong in the short - term but limited in long - term increase [7]. - The soda ash - glass market is weak. Soda ash has an over - supply situation, and glass has cost support but weak demand [8]. Summary by Categories Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures rose, with positive supply - demand factors such as downstream restocking and supply - side changes [2]. - Polyolefin futures had a mixed performance. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow demand, while polypropylene has short - term supply support and slow demand recovery [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene has a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3 but may face pressure in Q4. It is recommended for monthly - spread band trading [3]. - Styrene has cost support, stable supply, and limited downstream boost, maintaining a consolidation pattern [3]. Polyester - PX has positive valuation due to improved demand expectations. PTA is affected by device news with limited impact [5]. - Ethylene glycol has a mixed situation with increased supply and stable demand, and needs to focus on policy and demand recovery [5]. - Short - fibre has positive demand expectations in the peak season and is recommended for long - term allocation. Bottle chips face long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol has weak current conditions but strong expectations, with port inventory issues and changes in supply and demand [6]. - Urea is affected by market sentiment and export news, with a loose short - term supply - demand situation [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC is expected to be weak due to high supply, low demand, and increased export pressure [7]. - Caustic soda is strong in the short - term due to demand for restocking but has long - term supply pressure [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash has an over - supply situation with high inventory at all levels, and its price is under pressure [8]. - Glass has cost support but weak demand, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The futures market is increasingly integrated into the national development framework, enhancing its role as a professional risk management platform amid global economic uncertainties [2][3]. Group 1: Futures Market Development - The futures market's ability to serve the real economy is continuously improving, with a diverse range of products being introduced, including polysilicon and aluminum alloy futures [2]. - As of now, there are 131 listed commodity futures and options, expanding the market's reach across various sectors of the national economy [2]. - The daily trading volume of industrial clients increased by 12.2% year-on-year in 2024, with the total holding of 48 major products equivalent to over 200 million tons in the spot market [2]. Group 2: Price Influence and Application - The influence of futures prices is on the rise, with various hedging and arbitrage strategies being widely adopted in response to external uncertainties [3]. - Futures prices are becoming a reference for international trade pricing, with the number of foreign investors participating in domestic futures options expanding to 91 [3]. Group 3: Support for National Strategies - The futures market is contributing to rural revitalization and food security through initiatives like "insurance + futures" to stabilize farmers' incomes [3]. - The market is also supporting high-quality development in the manufacturing sector, with 84 of the listed products being industrial goods, accounting for 64% of the total [3]. Group 4: Future Directions for Zhengzhou Futures Exchange - Zhengzhou Futures Exchange aims to enhance its service capabilities by diversifying product offerings, including the development of sunflower seed oil futures and other commodities [4][5]. - The exchange plans to improve market operation and service quality, focusing on tailored strategies for individual products and enterprises [5]. - There is a commitment to expand international cooperation and enhance the global pricing influence of the Zhengzhou futures market [5][6]. Group 5: Regulatory and Institutional Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the need for high-level market openness and plans to introduce more products to meet risk management needs [6][7]. - The CSRC will enhance service models for industries, guiding enterprises in utilizing the futures market for stable operations [6]. - There is a focus on improving research capabilities to support the futures market's development in alignment with national strategies [7].

丙烯产业风险管理日报 2025/08/19 戴一帆（投资咨询证书：Z0015428） 沈玮玮（F03140197） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 丙烯价格区间预测 下旬万华蓬莱90万吨PDH及金能90万吨PDH存检修计划；京博检修PP线预期8月下旬复产；整体山东市场供需差缩 | | | source： 丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心丙烯价格下跌 | 多 | 为防止存货跌价损失，可根据企业库 存情况，逢高空配丙烯期货来锁定利 | PL2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 6600-6700 | | | | | 润 | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本， 若现货价格上涨还可以锁定卖出价格 | PL2601C6800 | 卖出 | 50% | 120-160 | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏 低，希望根据订单 | 空 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from New Lake Futures indicates that the short-term propylene market prices will maintain a fluctuating trend [1] - The core viewpoint from Fuzheng Zhongqi Futures suggests that propylene will experience short-term adjustments [2] - As of August 15, propylene prices in East China were quoted at 6425 yuan/ton, while in Shandong, the price was 6400 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase in overall operating load [1][2] Group 2 - The propylene market saw a price increase followed by a decline, with Shandong and East China markets both at 6425 yuan/ton as of last Friday [2] - The operating load of propylene facilities was reported at 77.17% as of August 14, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.12% [2] - The overall supply of propylene is decreasing due to some facilities being temporarily halted, while new production capacity is expected to have limited impact on circulating supply [1]

（文章来源：期货日报网） 本报讯郑商所8月15日发布通知，为提高丙烯期货市场运行质量，郑商所计划征集丙烯期货做市商。申 请郑商所期货做市商资格的条件包括：净资产不低于人民币5000万元；具有专门机构和人员负责做市交 易，做市人员应当熟悉相关法律法规和郑商所业务规则；具有健全的做市交易实施方案、内部控制制度 和风险管理制度；最近三年无重大违法违规记录；具备稳定、可靠的做市交易技术系统；具有郑商所认 可的做市经历；中国证监会及郑商所规定的其他条件。（齐宣） ...

Group 1 - The main contract for propylene futures experienced a slight decline of 0.28%, with a current price of 6481.0 yuan, having reached a low of 6479.0 yuan during the trading session [1][2] - Market analysts from Zhonghui Futures suggest a price range for propylene at 6350-6550 yuan, indicating a bearish outlook due to weak downstream demand and increasing inventory levels [2] - According to Ruida Futures, China's propylene production for the week was 1.1636 million tons, a decrease of 0.77 thousand tons from the previous week, reflecting a decline of 0.66% [3] Group 2 - Downstream capacity utilization rates for propylene varied, with the highest increase seen in n-butanol production, while phenol-ketone production saw the largest decline due to maintenance shutdowns [3] - The overall market sentiment for propylene remains weak, with short-term support at 6400 yuan and resistance at 6600 yuan, as the industry is currently in a consumption off-season [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, the economy shows downward pressure as the manufacturing PMI declines. It enters a policy observation period, and incremental policies may be introduced if economic data continues to weaken. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period. Despite a hawkish speech from Powell, the Fed's core targets are employment and inflation. With poor non - farm data and high inflation in the US service sector, there may be fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, without new shock factors, it is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range, with a likely central anchor at 7.20 [4]. - The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend. The adjustment of US tariff policies may reduce risk appetite [6]. - For the bond market, there is a mild price repair. Although the stock market is strong, the bond market is at most suppressed, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. - For the shipping industry, the container shipping index is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [9]. - In the precious metals market, due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, gold and silver are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper may be volatile and weak; aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile; zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short - term; tin may rise slightly; and the recommended strategies vary for each metal [13][15][16][17][18][19]. - In the black metals market, steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space; iron ore is expected to be strong; coking coal and coke may have increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic; silicon iron and silicon manganese are not overly pessimistic despite the decline in sentiment [21][23][26][27]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is under supply pressure and has limited upward space; LPG is in a loose supply situation; PX - TA can be considered for expanding processing fees at low prices; MEG - bottle chips are expected to be range - bound; methanol's fundamentals are weak in the short - term; PP is driven up by coal prices; PE needs to wait for demand recovery; PVC's pricing returns to the industry, and short - selling is recommended; pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile; fuel oil is weak; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling; asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile; urea is expected to be weakly volatile; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline; and propylene's price in the Shandong market has a slight increase [31][33][35][37][39][42][45][47][48][50][51][53][54][56][58][59][60][61][66]. - In the agricultural products market, for live pigs, short - selling at high prices is recommended; for oilseeds, long - buying in the far - month contracts is recommended [67][69]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market information includes policies on financial support for new - type industrialization in China, the US service - sector PMI causing concerns about stagflation, Trump's statements on tariffs and the Fed, and the high proportion of seriously overdue consumer loans in the US [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange - rate performance shows a decline in the on - shore RMB against the US dollar. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in the US non - manufacturing index are important factors. Without new shock factors, the short - term exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index continued to rise yesterday, and the small - cap stocks were strong. The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend due to policy support and the adjustment of US tariff policies [5][6]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury futures fluctuated upward, and the price is in a mild repair state. The bond market is at most suppressed by the strong stock market, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. Shipping - The container shipping index futures opened low and fluctuated. The spot prices of major shipping companies have been continuously reduced, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [8][9]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals rose due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. They are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded slightly, mainly to correct the previous decline. It may be volatile and weak in the short - term, and investors are advised to hold cash and wait [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered when the price difference is large [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season [16][17]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short - term. The fundamentals of nickel have no obvious changes, and the supply of nickel - iron is supported by the expected increase in steel - mill production in August. The stability of the stainless - steel price needs to be tested [18]. - **Tin**: Tin rose slightly, showing strong resilience. The supply problem has not been resolved, and the demand weakness has not fully affected the price. Inventory hedging can be considered at an appropriate time [19]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space. Although the export orders have weakened, the market pressure is temporarily relieved, and the coal - mine inspection and military - parade limit - production expectations provide support [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be strong. The short - term fundamentals are good, and the supply is neutral while the demand is expected to remain high. The price is expected to break through the 800 - yuan pressure level [22][23]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose strongly. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic. It is not recommended for non - spot - handling investors to participate in the 09 - contract delivery game [25][26]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: Although the sentiment has declined, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high steel - mill profits in the short - term, but the long - term demand is uncertain [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell overnight, and the market is under supply pressure. The seasonal demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited [30][31]. - **LPG**: LPG is in a loose supply situation. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand has little change. The price is expected to be under pressure [32][33]. - **PX - PTA**: The PX - TA price has fallen. The current TA processing fee is at a historical low, and there are many expected TA maintenance plans. It is recommended to expand the processing fee at low prices [34][35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The "anti - involution" premium has been squeezed out, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force. They are expected to be range - bound [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to fundamentals, which are weak in the short - term. Attention should be paid to downstream resistance and port - to - inland price differences [38][39]. - **PP**: PP's price rose driven by coal prices. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak, so the market is in a weak pattern [40][42]. - **PE**: PE's price was driven up by the coal - market. The current demand is weak, and the inventory is high, but the demand is expected to recover in August [43][45]. - **PVC**: PVC's pricing has returned to the industry. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. Short - selling is recommended [46][47]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both increasing, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase in August and September [48][50]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling due to weak supply, demand, and high inventory [51][53]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile, following the cost - end. The supply has increased, but the demand is affected by weather and funds. The medium - to - long - term demand is expected to improve [53][54]. - **Urea**: Urea is under pressure. Although the export demand provides some support, the agricultural demand is weakening [55][56]. - **Glass, Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance state; and caustic soda may start the delivery logic in August [57][58][59][60]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline. The supply and inventory are high, and the demand has no obvious long - term increase, but there is seasonal support in August [61][62]. - **Propylene**: The price of propylene in the Shandong market has a slight increase. The supply is loose, and the demand has little change. The cost is affected by multiple factors [64][66]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs is stable, and the supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market US soybeans are weak, and the inner - market soybeans are pricing the far - month supply gap. It is recommended to long - buy in the far - month contracts [68][69].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with ongoing market movement) [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★☆ [1] - PTA: ★★☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with some products facing downward pressure due to factors such as supply-demand imbalances, seasonal effects, and external market influences [2][3][5][6][7][8]. - Different chemical products have unique supply and demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5][6][7][8]. Section Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures showed a volatile trend, with prices likely to decline due to relatively abundant supply and limited demand support [2]. - Polyolefin futures declined. PE supply remained stable with some demand improvement in the agricultural film sector, while PP faced a seasonal demand slump and weakening market support [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures continued to be weak, but the market pressure is expected to ease in the third quarter, with a recommendation for monthly spread trading [3]. - Styrene futures fluctuated narrowly, with supply pressure outweighing demand growth, leading to a weak price trend [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices declined, with PTA facing supply pressure and a need for cost-driven price recovery in the short term and potential valuation improvement in the medium term [5]. - Ethylene glycol prices continued to fall, with increasing supply and weakening demand [5]. - Short fiber and bottle chip prices followed the raw material decline. Short fiber may benefit from seasonal demand recovery, while bottle chip faces long - term overcapacity issues [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to fall, with short - term coastal inventory accumulation and a potential improvement in the medium term due to seasonal demand [6]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, affected by seasonal demand gaps and policy uncertainties [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices showed a weak trend, with high supply and low demand leading to inventory accumulation [7]. - Caustic soda prices were under pressure, with high - load production and limited non - aluminum demand [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices weakened as the industry started to accumulate inventory, with supply - demand pressure remaining [8]. - Glass prices were weak, with a slowdown in sales and inventory accumulation [8].