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快递行业业务量持续增长,“反内卷”利好单票价格回升,无人车打开新空间
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-26 00:12
2025年,"反内卷"成为快递行业关键词,快递单票价格出现上涨。从数据上来看,电商快递行业需求仍然保持韧性增长。此外,无人机、无人车等智能技术 在快递行业的推广应用不断加快。随着盈利水平改善,A股快递板块的投资机会值得重视。快递业务量维持韧性增长 得益于我国完备的互联网基础设施建设、物流网络及多样化电商平台,我国拥有世界最大电商市场。近年来,短视频和直播带货等新兴电商模式迅速发展。 电商与快递是"火借风势,风助火威"的共生关系,电商为快递提供了海量需求,快递则为电商的用户体验提供了核心保障,两者在相互成就中实现了共赢发 展。 国泰海通证券指出,我国快递行业已经进入中低速增长阶段,核心驱动力从"渗透率提升"转向"结构性增长",具体表现为以下三个特征: 1.包裹小型化:平价商品复购频次增加,推动包裹数量增长; 2.逆向物流:电商退货率攀升,带动逆向物流需求; 3.新模式拓展:直播电商、社区团购等新兴场景,持续创造快递需求。 2024年,在全面推进"消费品以旧换新"政策、电商平台创新性调整促销周期策略等因素的影响下,消费市场潜能加速释放,带动相关商品销售保持增长,电 商平台销售额表现亮眼。根据国家统计局公布的数据, ...
晨会纪要——2025年第111期-20250703
Guohai Securities· 2025-07-03 00:30
Group 1: Express Delivery Industry Insights - The express delivery industry is focusing on cost reduction at the terminal stage, with significant potential for cost control as terminal delivery costs account for 60.64% of total costs in 2024 for companies like YTO Express [3][4] - Cost elasticity is high for express delivery companies; for instance, a 0.1 CNY increase in per parcel profit for Zhongtong Express could lead to an additional 34 million CNY in performance, indicating a 34% elasticity [4] - Various cost reduction measures are being explored by express companies, including the use of collection points, direct delivery models, and the introduction of unmanned vehicles for deliveries [4][5] Group 2: Unmanned Vehicle Implementation - The use of unmanned vehicles is gaining traction, with companies like Zhongtong Express and SF Express investing heavily in this technology, aiming to reduce delivery costs significantly [8][9] - Cost reduction potential is substantial; for instance, using unmanned vehicles could lower the transportation cost per parcel from 0.16 CNY to 0.05 CNY, achieving a 69% reduction [9] - The regulatory environment is becoming more favorable for unmanned vehicles, with many cities granting road rights, which is expected to accelerate the adoption of this technology [6][7] Group 3: Agricultural Chemical Market Dynamics - Glyphosate prices have increased, with the current price at 24,800 CNY per ton, reflecting a recovery in demand and inventory depletion in the industry [17][18] - The glyphosate industry is experiencing a demand recovery, with significant inventory reduction observed, dropping by 43,000 tons since April 2025 [19] - The potential bankruptcy of Bayer's glyphosate production could benefit domestic competitors, as Bayer holds a 32% global market share [20][21] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Glyphosate - The report highlights several key companies in the glyphosate market, such as Jiangshan Chemical and Xingfa Group, which are well-positioned to benefit from the industry's recovery [22][23] - The overall outlook for the agricultural chemical sector is positive, with expectations of continued profit recovery for companies involved in glyphosate production [21] Group 5: Photovoltaic Equipment Industry Developments - The photovoltaic equipment industry is witnessing advancements in perovskite solar cells, with significant efficiency improvements reported by various manufacturers [26][27] - The industry is entering a phase of large-scale production, with at least three GW-level production lines expected to be operational by 2025 [26] - Investment opportunities are emerging in the perovskite equipment sector, with a focus on suppliers of key manufacturing equipment [29]