机器学习(ML)模型

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DeepSeek对英伟达长期股价的潜在影响
CHIEF SECURITIES· 2025-03-12 06:38
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved. Core Insights - DeepSeek's significant cost advantages in training and inference have led to substantial market impacts, including a notable drop in Nvidia's stock price and market capitalization [2][11][12] - The introduction of DeepSeek's models has the potential to disrupt existing AI companies by lowering the barriers to entry for smaller firms and individuals, thereby increasing overall demand for computational resources [15][16] Summary by Sections Section on DeepSeek's Market Impact - DeepSeek achieved the top position in download rankings on both the Chinese and US App Store, coinciding with a major drop in the semiconductor index and Nvidia's stock [2] - Nvidia's market value decreased by nearly $600 billion, marking one of the largest single-day market cap losses in history [2] Section on Cost Structure - DeepSeek's training costs for their V3 model were reported to be under $6 million, utilizing approximately 2000 H800 GPUs [6][7] - The inference cost for DeepSeek's models is significantly lower than that of OpenAI, with DeepSeek charging only 3% of OpenAI's rates for similar token inputs and outputs [7][9] Section on Training Innovations - DeepSeek implemented innovative training strategies that reduced costs, particularly by optimizing the supervised fine-tuning (SFT) process [9][10] - The team utilized pure reinforcement learning (RL) without human feedback, achieving performance comparable to OpenAI's models [9][10] Section on Future Implications for AI Industry - DeepSeek's advancements may lead to increased competition among AI firms, particularly those relying on self-developed large models [12][13] - The report suggests that while Nvidia's stock may have been negatively impacted in the short term, the overall demand for their chips could increase as AI commercialization accelerates [14][16]