Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continued decline in U.S. exports in June, while the engineering machinery category remains in a high prosperity state [1] - U.S. retail sales showed a significant rebound in June, with a month-on-month growth rate of +0.6%, exceeding market expectations [3] - The report indicates that tariffs and other factors have negatively impacted exports to North America, particularly for electric tools and lawn mowers [4][10] Summary by Sections Consumer Goods - Electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers are primarily targeted at high-end consumers in Europe and the U.S. [3] - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 5%, -6%, and 47% respectively [4] - Exports to North America for electric tools and lawn mowers showed a year-on-year decline of -7% and -4% respectively [4] - Recommendations include关注泉峰控股, 巨星科技, 创科实业, and 格力博 [10] Capital Goods - Industrial - The report notes that the global manufacturing PMI has slightly increased to 49.5%, with Asia leading at 50.7% [10] - Cumulative export growth rates for forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines in the first half of 2025 were -1%, +12%, and +20% respectively [8] - Recommendations include关注安徽合力, 杭叉集团, 纽威数控, 科德数控, 杰克股份, and 宏华数科 [10] Capital Goods - Engineering Machinery - Cumulative export growth rates for major engineering machinery, excavators, tractors, and mining machinery in the first half of 2025 were 11%, 22%, 26%, and 23% respectively [9][11] - The report emphasizes strong growth in exports to Africa, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 65% [5] - Recommendations include关注一拖股份, 徐工机械, 中联重科 (A/H), 三一重工, 柳工, and 恒立液压 [11]