2025 年 8 月 22 日 行业研究 7 月部分消费品对北美出口边际改善，工程机械品类出口保持高景气度 ——机械行业海关总署出口月报（十四） 机械行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：黄帅斌 执业证书编号：S0930520080005 0755-23915357 huangshuaibin@ebscn.com 分析师：陈佳宁 执业证书编号：S0930512120001 021-52523851 chenjianing@ebscn.com 分析师：汲萌 执业证书编号：S0930524010002 021-52523859 jimeng@ebscn.com 分析师：李佳琦 执业证书编号：S0930524070006 021-52523836 lijiaqi@ebscn.com 分析师：庄晓波 执业证书编号：S0930524070018 0755-25310400 zhuangxiaobo@ebscn.com 分析师：夏天宇 执业证书编号：S0930525070006 021-52523805 xiatianyu@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2 ...

Group 1: Consumer Goods - The core viewpoint indicates a significant rebound in U.S. retail sales, with June 2025 showing a month-on-month growth of +0.6%, surpassing market expectations of +0.1% and recovering from a previous decline of -0.9% [2] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) also increased by +0.5% in June, higher than the expected +0.3% and revised from a previous -0.2% [2] - The increase in retail sales is attributed to consumers' preemptive purchasing ahead of tariff expirations, although actual growth, when adjusted for price factors, was only +0.3% [2] Group 2: Export Data - In the first half of 2025, the export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 5%, -6%, and 47% respectively, with June showing monthly declines for electric tools and hand tools [3] - Cumulative export amounts to North America for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers showed declines of -7%, -6%, and -4% year-on-year, indicating a cooling effect on exports due to tariffs [3] Group 3: Capital Goods - Industrial sewing machines are primarily exported to Asia, accounting for 68% of export value in 2024, with key markets including Turkey, Vietnam, and Singapore [4] - Forklifts and machine tools also have significant export markets in Asia and Europe, with respective export shares of 30% and 34% in 2024 [4] - The cumulative export value of construction machinery increased by 11% in the first half of 2025, with Africa showing the fastest growth at 65% [5][6] Group 4: Engineering Machinery - In June 2025, the export growth rates for major engineering machinery categories were 14%, 25%, 8%, and 20% respectively, with cumulative growth rates for the first half of 2025 reaching 11% [7] - The export of forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines showed varying growth rates, with machine tools experiencing a cumulative increase of 12% [6][7]

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continued decline in U.S. exports in June, while the engineering machinery category remains in a high prosperity state [1] - U.S. retail sales showed a significant rebound in June, with a month-on-month growth rate of +0.6%, exceeding market expectations [3] - The report indicates that tariffs and other factors have negatively impacted exports to North America, particularly for electric tools and lawn mowers [4][10] Summary by Sections Consumer Goods - Electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers are primarily targeted at high-end consumers in Europe and the U.S. [3] - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 5%, -6%, and 47% respectively [4] - Exports to North America for electric tools and lawn mowers showed a year-on-year decline of -7% and -4% respectively [4] - Recommendations include关注泉峰控股, 巨星科技, 创科实业, and 格力博 [10] Capital Goods - Industrial - The report notes that the global manufacturing PMI has slightly increased to 49.5%, with Asia leading at 50.7% [10] - Cumulative export growth rates for forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines in the first half of 2025 were -1%, +12%, and +20% respectively [8] - Recommendations include关注安徽合力, 杭叉集团, 纽威数控, 科德数控, 杰克股份, and 宏华数科 [10] Capital Goods - Engineering Machinery - Cumulative export growth rates for major engineering machinery, excavators, tractors, and mining machinery in the first half of 2025 were 11%, 22%, 26%, and 23% respectively [9][11] - The report emphasizes strong growth in exports to Africa, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 65% [5] - Recommendations include关注一拖股份, 徐工机械, 中联重科 (A/H), 三一重工, 柳工, and 恒立液压 [11]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The North American inventory cycle is entering a replenishment phase, with inventory growth among manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers reaching approximately 2% by the end of Q1 2024, although the replenishment speed is slow due to declining import amounts, indicating potential stimulation for the export chain industry [1][3] - The export chain industry is expected to benefit from recent clarity on tariffs and interest rate cuts, particularly for quality export companies such as Juxing Technology, Chuncheng, and Yindu Co., which will see demand growth from real estate and retail stimulus as well as increased loan willingness from small B customers [2] Key Insights - The inventory growth rate for U.S. manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers has remained around 0% since December 2024, with a gradual increase to 2% in March and April 2024, indicating a weak de-inventory cycle followed by a gradual replenishment phase [3] - The average inventory level is similar to pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that the replenishment phase is just beginning [4] - U.S. goods are categorized into raw materials (20%), capital goods (37%), and consumer goods (42%), with raw materials and consumer goods experiencing faster de-inventory and replenishment cycles compared to machinery [5] Sector-Specific Performance - Electrical equipment products, including electronic lighting and household appliances, have entered the replenishment phase, with electronic lighting nearly completing replenishment by 2024 [6] - China's export share to the U.S. decreased but rebounded to 11.7% in June 2024, following tariff reductions, while exports to Africa and ASEAN regions maintained rapid growth [7] - The U.S. import growth rate dropped from approximately 30% in March to flat by May, with a notable 20% decline in imports from China [8] Impact of Interest Rate Cuts - The tool industry is highly sensitive to interest rate cuts, with historical data indicating a one-month lag for the effects to transmit through real estate and retail to suppliers [9] - Experts predict improved growth rates for the tool industry, with positive inventory and revenue growth for companies like Jarden and Lowe's, even without formal interest rate cuts [10] - The motorcycle industry has shown strong performance, with companies like Chuncheng and Taotao maintaining growth rates of 43-44%, closely tied to the overall economic environment [11] Sensitivity to Economic Changes - Consumer goods companies like Juxing and Chuncheng are more sensitive to interest rate cuts, with revenue growth turning positive shortly after rate decreases, while production equipment companies like Yindu experience a lag of about six months due to differing transmission effects [12] - Recent tariff changes, including reductions for Vietnam and India, are expected to improve export company performance in the long term, especially for those with manufacturing bases in Southeast Asia [13] Long-Term Outlook - Despite short-term tariff impacts, the focus should be on the long-term potential of companies like Juxing, Yindu, Chuncheng, and Jiechang, which are expected to benefit significantly from the onset of an interest rate cut cycle, with current valuations being relatively low compared to peak economic cycles [14]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports from China, particularly in the electric tools, hand tools, and lawnmower sectors, as well as the broader implications for supply chains and market dynamics [1][2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Tariff Increases**: In the first half of 2025, the average tariff on Chinese imports reached 54%, with electric tools facing a 35.8% tariff and lawnmowers experiencing a significant increase [1][4]. - **Decline in Market Share**: Since the trade war began in 2018, China's share of electric tool exports to the U.S. has dropped from 40%-45% to around 20%, indicating a trend of supply chain relocation [1][5]. - **Impact on Import Volumes**: The correlation between freight costs and import values suggests that while both increased in 2024, a sharp decline is expected post-March 2025 due to tariff impacts [1][6][7]. - **Hand Tools Performance**: Hand tools showed stable growth in early 2025, but a significant drop to -7% in May indicates the growing impact of tariffs on actual import volumes [1][8]. - **Lawnmower Market Share**: The market share of Chinese lawnmowers plummeted from 40%-45% at the end of 2023 to 13% by May 2025, highlighting the direct impact of high tariffs [1][10]. - **Overall Import Trends**: The overall import value has been suppressed by high tariffs, with monthly amounts decreasing by 10%-20%, yet consumer demand remains positive, suggesting potential for inventory replenishment if tariffs stabilize [3][13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Data Importance**: U.S. customs data is crucial for understanding actual market demand and supply, especially in the context of changing tariffs and supply chain dynamics [2][17]. - **Future Opportunities**: The current export chain opportunities are linked to stable tariff expectations and low inventory levels, which may lead to a replenishment cycle in the third quarter of 2025 [15]. - **Stock Selection**: Companies with strong overseas operations should be prioritized for investment, as they are less affected by the high tariffs imposed on Chinese goods [16]. - **Impact of U.S.-China Decoupling**: The increasing decoupling between the U.S. and China makes U.S. customs data more relevant for industry research, providing better insights into trade changes and their effects on the market [17].

Group 1 - The Russian hardware tools market is expanding due to ongoing infrastructure development and manufacturing upgrades, with the ToolMash 2024 exhibition attracting over 5,600 professional visitors, 22% of whom have procurement budgets exceeding 50 million rubles [1][8] - The audience composition includes 24.3% wholesalers, 18.1% construction and renovation professionals, and 13.6% retailers, with 60% of attendees from small and medium-sized enterprises [1][8] - The exhibition will be held alongside the Woodex exhibition in December 2025, creating synergistic opportunities for increased business engagement [1][11] Group 2 - High-budget buyers, defined as those with procurement budgets over 50 million rubles, represent a significant segment of the audience, indicating strong purchasing intent [3][8] - Key companies represented among the attendees include Rosneft, Aeroflot, and EVRAZ STEEL, highlighting the diverse industrial interest in the hardware tools sector [8][10] - The interest in specific product categories shows that electric tools (22.1%), hand tools (19.3%), and storage systems (13.6%) are the most sought after, with a notable increase in demand for automotive repair tools and gardening equipment [8][10] Group 3 - ToolMash utilizes digital tools to enhance exhibition efficiency, including a LeadScanning feature that streamlines contact information exchange and data management for exhibitors [10] - The upcoming ToolMash 2025 aims to leverage the collaboration with Woodex to attract a broader audience, with Woodex having previously drawn over 8,000 industry professionals [11] - The integration of these two exhibitions is expected to significantly expand the potential customer base and influence purchasing decisions among professionals [11]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank maintains an optimistic outlook for Zhenkunhang (ZKH.US) in the second half of the year, keeping a "Buy" rating with a target price of $4.5, citing the company's long-term growth potential driven by the digital transformation of China's MRO procurement services [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with GMV growth expected to accelerate quarter by quarter [1] - Revenue from the U.S. business doubled month-on-month in Q1, with further acceleration anticipated in the second half [2] Group 2: AI and Technology Integration - AI technology has significantly enhanced customer service efficiency, with a 60.4% increase in the average order handling capacity per customer service team member in Q1 [1] - The AI product recommendation engine has provided purchasing demand analysis and product pool management services to over 200 clients since its launch in September 2024, generating additional revenue exceeding RMB 34 million [1] - The company plans to expand the coverage of the AI product recommendation engine to 14,000 clients by 2025 to further unlock its value [1] Group 3: Product and Market Expansion - As of the end of March, Zhenkunhang's U.S. independent site has launched over 500 SKUs across various categories, including PPE, hand tools, power tools, packaging materials, and HVAC systems [1] - The company aims to launch a mobile application in the second half of the year and increase the SKU count to 1,500 to enhance product coverage and user experience [1] - Zhenkunhang is strengthening its global supply chain by expanding its quality supplier network in Southeast Asia to address potential geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 4: Private Label Strategy - In Q1 2025, the transaction volume of private label products grew approximately 40% year-on-year, accounting for 8.7% of the company's total GMV [2] - Deutsche Bank views the development of private label products as a core strategy for the company this year, with significant growth potential as the current share is still far from the long-term target of 30% [2]

Consumer Goods - The core consumer goods include electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers, primarily targeting high-end markets in Europe and the United States [2] - In April 2025, U.S. retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, surpassing market expectations of 0%, while core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) also increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% [2] - The significant drop in retail data in April is attributed to the impact of tariffs, with consumer confidence index declining by 4.8 percentage points to 52.2, the lowest level since August 2022 [2] Capital Goods - Industrial sewing machines are primarily exported to Asia, accounting for 68% of export value in 2024, with key markets including Turkey, Vietnam, and Singapore [4] - Forklift exports are mainly to Asia and Europe, with export values in 2024 accounting for 30% and 34% respectively [4] - Machine tool exports are predominantly to Asia, maintaining around 50% of export value from 2019 to 2024, with notable fluctuations in exports to Russia [4] - Mining machinery exports are concentrated in Asia, Africa, and Europe, with cumulative export values in the first four months of 2025 showing increases of 19% to Asia, 16% to Latin America, and 30% to Africa [4][7] Engineering Machinery - Cumulative export value of engineering machinery increased by 10% in the first four months of 2025, with the fastest growth seen in exports to Africa at 61% [5][6] - Cumulative export value to Africa reached 19% of total exports, an increase of 4 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [6] - In the first four months of 2025, cumulative exports of forklifts to Africa grew by 37%, and to Latin America by 24% [7] Industrial Capital Goods - In April 2025, the month-on-month export growth rates for forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines were 3%, 17%, and 23% respectively [8] - Cumulative export growth rates for the first four months of 2025 were -1% for forklifts, +9% for machine tools, and +28% for industrial sewing machines [8] Overall Machinery Exports - In April 2025, the export growth rates for major categories of engineering machinery, excavators, tractors, and mining machinery were 8%, 20%, 21%, and 28% respectively [9] - Cumulative growth rates for the first four months of 2025 were 10% for major engineering machinery, 21% for excavators, 28% for tractors, and 21% for mining machinery [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Chinese companies, particularly泉峰控股 and 巨星科技, in the U.S. market due to high tariffs and manufacturing costs, emphasizing the shift of production to Vietnam as a strategic response to these challenges [1][4][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. electric tools and outdoor power equipment market exceeded 170 billion RMB in 2020, with a significant portion of products being manufactured in China [1]. - After the U.S. imposed a 145% tariff,泉峰控股 halted exports from China and increased production in Vietnam, which has also faced a 10% tariff [4][5]. - The U.S. market is the largest for tools, with an estimated 50% of tools sold being manufactured in China, particularly for electric tools [4][10]. Group 2: Production Strategy -泉峰控股 has been preparing to increase its production capacity in Vietnam since Trump's first term, with plans for a second manufacturing base in 2024 [5]. -巨星科技 has also expanded its production in Vietnam, moving from manual to electric tools to meet U.S. demand [5][6]. - Both companies are adjusting their supply chains to mitigate the impact of tariffs, collaborating with U.S. retailers to find solutions [6][10]. Group 3: Cost Considerations - The cost of manufacturing in the U.S. is estimated to be at least 50% higher than in China, making it unfeasible for companies to produce there [9][10]. - The lack of a complete supply chain in the U.S. for tool manufacturing further complicates the feasibility of local production [10]. - The imposition of tariffs on raw materials has increased manufacturing costs in the U.S., reducing competitiveness [10]. Group 4: Globalization and Competition - Chinese companies are pursuing globalization and brand development, with泉峰控股's global sales revenue quadrupling over the past decade [14]. - The competition with established brands like Stanley Black & Decker is intensifying, with Chinese companies gradually capturing market share [14][15]. - Despite progress, Chinese companies still face challenges in brand recognition and high-end product offerings compared to their Western counterparts [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing landscape in the U.S. for tools is unlikely to return to previous levels due to high costs and supply chain issues, making it impractical for companies to produce domestically [1][10][11]. Group 1: Company Strategies - QuanFeng Holdings has shifted its production focus to Vietnam due to increased tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S., with plans to expand its manufacturing capacity there [3][4]. - The company estimates that its sales in 2024 will reach approximately 13 billion RMB, with over 70% coming from the U.S. market [3]. - Giant Star Technology has also established production facilities in Vietnam to mitigate tariff impacts and plans to expand its product range from hand tools to electric tools [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. tool market is the largest globally, with an estimated market size exceeding 170 billion RMB in 2020, and at least half of the tools sold in the U.S. are manufactured in China [1][3]. - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant increase in costs, with U.S. manufacturers unable to absorb these costs, resulting in a pause in exports from China [3][4][11]. - Major U.S. retailers are seeking solutions to manage tariff costs, indicating a collective concern over the sustainability of high tariffs on consumer goods [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Companies like QuanFeng Holdings and Giant Star Technology are increasingly competing with established brands such as Stanley Black & Decker, Bosch, and Makita, as they expand their market presence in the U.S. and Europe [13][14]. - The global sales revenue of QuanFeng Holdings is projected to reach 1.77 billion USD in 2024, while Stanley Black & Decker's revenue is expected to be around 15.3 billion USD, highlighting the competitive gap [14]. - The shift in market share from established brands to Chinese companies is evident, with Chinese brands gradually replacing traditional market leaders in various segments [14][15].