为全球第二大、亚太地区第一大的专业五金盛会，2026中国国际五金展（CIHS）暨上海科隆五金展将于2026年9月28日至30日在上海新国际博览中心隆重 举行。 支持机构：国际五金及家居用品协会联合会（IHA）、欧洲DIY产品零售商协会（EDRA）、全球家装联盟（GHIN）等 展品范围： 工具五金专区：包括手动工具（防爆工具、汽保工具、工量具）、电动工具（锂电/无绳系列及配件）、气动工具、园林工具等； 本届展会由中国五金制品协会与德国科隆展览有限公司联合主办，展览面积达12万平方米，预计将吸引近3000家来自全球60多个国家和地区的优质企业参 展， 汇聚超8万名专业买家，其中海外采购商占比超过10%。 展会时间：2026年9月28日–30日 展会地点：上海新国际博览中心 主办单位：中国五金制品协会、德国科隆博览会有限公司 195 %%% 1230 &&&& 8771 锁具与智能安防：机械锁、电子锁、智能门锁（指纹/人脸识别）、保险箱、楼宇智能系统及车辆交通用锁； ：泵阀、空压机、电机、轴承、焊接设备、切削工具、金刚石制品及各类磨具； 机械设备与制造装备：木工、喷涂、液压、包装设备，金属加工、检测、表面处理及热处 ...

Group 1: Steel Industry - The price of oriented silicon steel has reached the lowest level since 2018, indicating a significant decline in metal cycle products [5] - The high furnace capacity utilization rate in January is expected to be the highest in five years for the same period [5] - The price of titanium dioxide and glass remains low in the real estate completion chain [5] Group 2: Oil and Chemical Industry - IEA has raised the 2026 global oil demand forecast, expecting an increase of 930,000 barrels per day [5] - Geopolitical tensions in Iran and Cuba have led to an increase in oil price risk premium, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices rising by 1.9% and 3.5% respectively [5] Group 3: Electric and Environmental Industry - Space photovoltaic technology has become a market hotspot, with Tesla and SpaceX planning to build a total of 200GW photovoltaic capacity in the U.S. over the next three years [6] - The current market liquidity is abundant, and the commercial aerospace sector is a key focus, with expectations for significant performance in the space photovoltaic sector [6] Group 4: Utilities Industry - The cumulative electricity market transaction volume in 2025 reached 66,394 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [7] - The national electricity load has reached new highs due to cold wave impacts, and policies to enhance green electricity consumption are expected to boost the green electricity sector [7] Group 5: High-end Manufacturing - The export share of emerging markets is expected to increase further in 2025, with North America showing the most significant decline [7] - The export growth rates for electric tools, manual tools, and lawn mowers have varied, with notable increases in specific categories [7] Group 6: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology - WuXi AppTec's companies have shown strong performance, indicating robust growth momentum in the CXO sector [8] - WuXi Biologics is expected to add 209 comprehensive projects in 2025, with revenue and adjusted net profit growth exceeding 45% for WuXi AppTec [8] Group 7: Food Industry - Li Gao Food has projected a revenue of 4.26-4.42 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.07%-15.24% [8] - The expected net profit for the parent company is between 311-331 million yuan, indicating a growth of 16.06%-23.52% [8]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 一、消费品 消费品中电动工具、手动工具、草坪割草机以欧美高端消费市场为主。 总体表现：2025年，电动工具、手动工具、草坪割草机出口金额累计同比增速分别为-2%、-6%、+32%； 其中12月单月同比增速分别为-13%、-9%、+20%，环比变动-5pcts、-4pct、+7pcts。从边际变化看，12月 消费品出口同比增速有降有升，或与海外需求节奏波动有关。同时，近年来受全球关税扰动等影响，国内 企业加速在东南亚等地新增产能以满足北美等市场订单，因此国内海关统计的部分机械出口金额同比压力 有所增大。 北美市场：2025年，我国出口至北美地区的电动工具、手动工具、草坪割草机累计金额分别同 比-25%、-10%、-17%，其中 ...

Group 1: Consumer Products - The export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers from January to November 2025 are -1%, -6%, and 34% respectively, with November showing a month-on-month increase due to the fading high base effect and strong seasonal demand for replenishment in overseas markets [4] - Exports of electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers to North America from January to November 2025 have seen significant declines of -21%, -10%, and -14% respectively, with November figures showing a year-on-year drop of -40%, -17%, and -44% [4] - Lawn mower exports are primarily directed towards Europe, with 63% of exports in 2024 and 71% in January to November 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 20% in the same period [5] Group 2: Capital Goods - Industrial sewing machines have the highest export market in Asia, accounting for 67% of total exports from January to November 2025, with major markets including Vietnam, India, and Indonesia [6] - Forklift exports are primarily to Europe (34%), Asia (30%), and Latin America (15%), with a notable decline in the European market share due to the situation in Russia [6][7] - Machine tool exports are mainly directed towards Asia, with a 50% share in January to November 2025, while exports to Russia have fluctuated significantly, dropping from 22% in 2023 to 10% in 2025 [7] - Mining machinery exports are led by Asia, Africa, and Europe, with cumulative export growth rates of +23%, +33%, and +19% respectively from January to November 2025 [7] - Emerging markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America have shown strong growth, with forklift exports to these regions increasing by 36%, 16%, and 12% respectively [7]

Core Insights - The global hand tools market is experiencing steady growth, with cross-border e-commerce becoming a significant engine for China's foreign trade transformation. The total revenue of the global DIY and hardware store market reached $285.7 billion in 2023, with the core tools category estimated at $85 billion, projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.48% in the coming years [2][3]. Company Overview - Juxing Technology, founded in 1993, has become the largest hand tools company in Asia and ranks among the top three globally. The company, headquartered in Hangzhou, offers a wide range of products including hand tools, power tools, and laser measuring tools, with sales in over 180 countries and regions. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.795 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.37%, and a net profit of 2.304 billion yuan, up 36.18%, both hitting historical highs [2][3]. Strategic Transformation - The transition from OEM to self-owned brands was driven by the need to overcome the limitations of the OEM model, which lacked pricing power. Juxing Technology recognized that to achieve sustainable growth and maximize profits, expanding into overseas markets and building its own brands was essential [5][6][14][16]. Market Insights - Juxing Technology's deep understanding of international market demands, product categories, and pricing strategies, gained from its experience as an OEM, laid a solid foundation for its subsequent research and innovation efforts. The company has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its capabilities, including acquiring stakes in laser measurement tool companies and American brands [6][10][16]. Brand Development - Since entering Amazon in 2015, Juxing Technology has accelerated its brand globalization. The company relies heavily on Amazon's logistics services, with over 90% of its goods shipped through Amazon's Global Logistics (AGL), which enhances delivery speed and reduces costs [7][9][22][23]. Product Innovation - Juxing Technology emphasizes product innovation and regional customization as core strategies. The company has over 600 engineers in China and local engineers in various countries to tailor products to local consumer preferences. Approximately 80% of its products are designed in-house, allowing for greater pricing autonomy and improved profit margins [10][11][19][20]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its collaboration with Amazon to leverage market data and develop products that meet consumer needs in emerging markets such as Latin America, the Middle East, and Australia. Juxing Technology believes that economic downturns can present opportunities for growth and innovation [20][21].

Consumer Products - The export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers from January to October 2025 are -0.4%, -6%, and 37% respectively, with October 2025 showing declines of -17%, -16%, and -15% year-on-year [4] - The decline in export growth is attributed to high base effects and calendar effects, with one less working day in October 2025 compared to October 2024, leading to adjusted year-on-year growth rates of -12%, -11%, and -11% when calculated on a daily average basis [4] Capital Goods - The export growth rates for forklifts, machine tools, industrial sewing machines, and mining machinery in October are -13%, -4%, -10%, and 1% respectively, showing significant declines compared to September [5] - Cumulative growth rates from January to October 2025 for these categories are 0%, 13%, 13%, and 21%, with a decrease of 2-3 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [5] - The decline in export growth is also linked to high base effects and calendar effects, with adjusted daily average growth rates for October being -8%, 2%, -5%, and 6% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical industry [1] Core Views - The mechanical export data for October is affected by high year-on-year bases and calendar effects, leading to a significant decline in export growth rates for various products [3][4] - The export amounts for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers to North America have shown a continuous decline, with electric tools experiencing a six-month consecutive drop [4][7] - Emerging markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are driving growth in capital goods exports, particularly for forklifts and industrial sewing machines [5][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Consumer Goods - The export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers from January to October 2025 are -0.4%, -6%, and 37% respectively, with October showing declines of -17%, -16%, and -15% [3] - Exports to North America for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers have seen year-to-date declines of -19%, -9%, and -9% respectively [4] - Companies such as QuanFeng Holdings, JuXing Technology, and Greebo are recommended for investment focus [7] Capital Goods - Forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines have varying export markets, with Asia being the largest for industrial sewing machines [5] - The cumulative export growth rates for forklifts, machine tools, industrial sewing machines, and mining machinery from January to October 2025 are 0%, 13%, 13%, and 21% respectively [6] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Jack Group for potential investments in industrial capital goods [8] Mining Machinery - The cumulative export growth rate for mining machinery is 21% from January to October 2025, indicating a positive outlook for global mining capital expenditures [8]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of the hand tools and electric tools industry, focusing on two companies: **Giant Star Technology** and **Ousheng Electric** [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Giant Star Technology - **Market Position**: Giant Star Technology is a leading company in hand tools and electric tools, expanding revenue through acquisitions despite fluctuations due to tariffs and the pandemic [1][3]. - **Revenue Impact**: The company has experienced significant revenue volatility, particularly since 2018 due to U.S. tariffs and the pandemic, but has maintained double-digit profit growth due to investment income and government subsidies [2][3]. - **Production Capacity**: Currently, 73% of production capacity is in Southeast Asia, with only 20% in China. Future exports from China to the U.S. are expected to decline further to avoid high tariffs [1][8]. - **Market Demand**: Recent data indicates a 10% year-over-year decline in U.S. tool sales, but a recovery is anticipated as interest rates decrease and housing demand rebounds [11]. - **Strategic Response**: The company is diversifying its product offerings and strengthening distribution channels to adapt to market changes, while also transferring production capacity to Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts [6][12]. Ousheng Electric - **Market Growth**: Ousheng Electric benefits from demand in the U.S. and emerging markets, with a new factory in Malaysia enhancing production capacity despite short-term performance challenges due to relocation [1][13]. - **Product Development**: The company has gained national endorsement for its elderly care robots, which are expected to benefit from an aging population and potential government subsidies [1][17]. - **Financial Performance**: Ousheng Electric reported a nearly 30% year-over-year decline in net profit for Q3 2025, contrasting with Giant Star's performance, which saw stock price increases prior to its mid-year report [2][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Tariff and Trade Relations**: The easing of U.S.-China trade relations and potential Federal Reserve easing policies are expected to positively impact the export sector, although the effects of previous tariffs and production relocations are still being felt [1][2]. - **Industry Characteristics**: The hand tools industry has a stable long-term growth rate of 5%-10%, driven by consistent consumer demand for home repair tools, which are considered essential [7]. - **Future Outlook**: Both companies are positioned for future growth, with Ousheng Electric's reliance on the U.S. market and Giant Star's diversified production strategy providing different but promising paths forward [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future prospects of the companies and the industry as a whole.

Group 1: Consumer Products - Exports of electric tools and lawn mowers from China to North America decreased by 18% and 3% respectively from January to September, showing a decline in growth rates compared to the previous months [4] - The overall impact of tariffs on exports to North America remains significant and continues to persist [4] Group 2: Capital Goods - Industrial - The global manufacturing PMI for September was 49.7%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [5] - Manufacturing in Asia continues to show stable expansion, while Africa's manufacturing expansion has improved compared to the previous month; however, recovery in the Americas and Europe remains relatively weak [5] - Exports from China to emerging regions such as Africa and Latin America are growing rapidly [5] Group 3: Capital Goods - Construction Machinery - From January to September, the cumulative export growth rate for major construction machinery remained in double digits, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery showing year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 32%, and 24% respectively [6] - Potential risks include slower-than-expected global economic recovery, worsening global tariff conditions, and increased shipping tensions affecting global freight [6]

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continued cooling trend in U.S. exports, while machine tools and engineering machinery exports show marginally positive performance [1] - Exports of electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers to North America are under pressure due to tariff impacts, with significant declines noted in 2025 [2][7] - Emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Latin America, are driving growth in forklift and industrial sewing machine exports [5][8] Summary by Sections Consumer Goods - Electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers primarily target high-end markets in Europe and the U.S. [2] - From January to September 2025, the export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 1%, -4%, and 43% respectively, with significant declines in exports to North America [2] - Lawn mower exports to Europe accounted for 71% of total exports in the first nine months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 22% [3] Capital Goods - Industrial sewing machines are mainly exported to Asia, with a 67% share in the first nine months of 2025 [4] - Forklifts and machine tools also show strong export performance, particularly in Asia, Europe, and Latin America, with respective shares of 34%, 29%, and 16% for forklifts [4] - Engineering machinery exports grew by 16% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, with Africa showing the fastest growth at 59% [4][5] Engineering Machinery - Exports of major engineering machinery categories, including excavators and tractors, maintained double-digit growth rates in 2025 [6][8] - Excavators and tractors saw year-on-year growth rates of 27% and 32% respectively in the first nine months of 2025 [8] - The report suggests a positive outlook for global mining capital expenditure, recommending attention to specific companies in this sector [8]