权益资产配置价值

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张瑜:中国股票配置价值已打开
一瑜中的· 2025-07-21 15:22
Core Viewpoint - The significant divergence between the stock-bond Sharpe ratio and price trends indicates a notable recovery in the attractiveness of equities compared to bonds, although the price response has been lagging [2][6][22]. Group 1: Key Indicators - Over the past two years, equity assets have underperformed compared to bond assets, with the ten-year government bond yield hitting record lows while the dividend yield of the Wande All A index has reached new highs [6][14]. - The decline in the equity-bond yield spread suggests a growing preference for bond assets, as investors demand higher dividend returns from equity assets [6][14]. - The underperformance of equity assets is attributed to their higher volatility and drawdown compared to bonds, leading to a preference for lower-risk bond investments [6][19]. Group 2: Underlying Logic - The recovery in the stock-bond Sharpe ratio is primarily driven by policy measures that have mitigated risks, limiting downward expressions in the stock market and reducing volatility [3][8][26]. - Economic indicators, such as the scissors difference between corporate and household deposits, have shown signs of recovery since September 2024, suggesting that profit growth may be nearing its bottom [3][9][26]. Group 3: Investment Insights - The "highlight moment" for equities may occur earlier than expected, as the current environment shows a significant increase in the stock Sharpe ratio despite economic bottoming [4][10]. - The relationship between stocks and bonds in China is shifting towards favoring equities, with expectations that bonds may decline while stocks rise [4][11][30]. - Given the macroeconomic conditions, there is a need to emphasize the allocation value of equities compared to bonds [4][11].