景气向上 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 1 、华创宏观 WEI 指数震荡 。 截至 12 月 14 日，该指数为 5.17% ，环比 12 月 7 日 上 行 1.05% 。 2 、耐用品消费：乘用车零售周度降幅有所收窄。 1 2 月第二周，乘用车零售同比增速 -17% ，前 值 -32% 。 12 月前两周累计同比 -24% 。 11 月全月同比为 -8.1% 。 3 、价格：三大新能源品种涨幅较大，铜价和金价续涨 。工业硅连续合约收盘价上涨 3.1% ，多晶硅 连续合约收盘价上涨 6.4% ，碳酸锂连续合约收盘价上涨 16.4% 。 COMEX 黄金收于 4354 美金 / 盎司，上涨 1.2% ； LME 三个月铜价收于 11837 美元 / 吨，上涨 0.4% 。 反内卷跟踪： 总量层面 ， 中财办有关负责同志讲话、发改委求是文章在提及明年工作时，均提及综 合 / 深入整治"内卷式"竞争。 行业层面 ， 主要涉及光伏（工信部提出明年"进入攻坚期"，将"进一 步加强产能调控"）、煤炭（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant divergence between the stock-bond Sharpe ratio and price trends indicates a notable recovery in the attractiveness of equities compared to bonds, although the price response has been lagging [2][6][22]. Group 1: Key Indicators - Over the past two years, equity assets have underperformed compared to bond assets, with the ten-year government bond yield hitting record lows while the dividend yield of the Wande All A index has reached new highs [6][14]. - The decline in the equity-bond yield spread suggests a growing preference for bond assets, as investors demand higher dividend returns from equity assets [6][14]. - The underperformance of equity assets is attributed to their higher volatility and drawdown compared to bonds, leading to a preference for lower-risk bond investments [6][19]. Group 2: Underlying Logic - The recovery in the stock-bond Sharpe ratio is primarily driven by policy measures that have mitigated risks, limiting downward expressions in the stock market and reducing volatility [3][8][26]. - Economic indicators, such as the scissors difference between corporate and household deposits, have shown signs of recovery since September 2024, suggesting that profit growth may be nearing its bottom [3][9][26]. Group 3: Investment Insights - The "highlight moment" for equities may occur earlier than expected, as the current environment shows a significant increase in the stock Sharpe ratio despite economic bottoming [4][10]. - The relationship between stocks and bonds in China is shifting towards favoring equities, with expectations that bonds may decline while stocks rise [4][11][30]. - Given the macroeconomic conditions, there is a need to emphasize the allocation value of equities compared to bonds [4][11].